AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 23, 2016 13:30:58 GMT -5
i very much doubt, based on what i am seeing so far, that either candidate will get 70M votes. All prior predictions were as outlandish. And they all underestimated Trump's support. To fully understand this prediction- the thing you need to know about it is this: it's the MINIMUM number. They weren't reaching for the stars. |
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 23, 2016 13:32:10 GMT -5
that's really kind, but it is hardly necessary. Democrats won't be doing the same for us. on the contrary, they are going to dance around naked in front of bonfires, bearing the man and lady parts and smoking weed. |
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 23, 2016 13:32:54 GMT -5
i very much doubt, based on what i am seeing so far, that either candidate will get 70M votes. All prior predictions were as outlandish. And they all underestimated Trump's support. To fully understand this prediction- the thing you need to know about it is this: it's the MINIMUM number. They weren't reaching for the stars. i am not "predicting", really- i am extrapolating based on data that is ALREADY IN. |
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 23, 2016 13:35:12 GMT -5
i very much doubt, based on what i am seeing so far, that either candidate will get 70M votes. edit: just out of curiosity, what do you expect TURNOUT to be in this election, Paul? I think we'll see 120 million give or take 5 million. We could see as many as 130 million-- but there are so many millions of disengaged, demoralized, and those that just plain HATE Hillary Clinton, that though I full expect a massive Trump landslide-- I expect the Trumpian wave will be offset on the other side by no-shows. |
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 23, 2016 13:36:28 GMT -5
All prior predictions were as outlandish. And they all underestimated Trump's support. To fully understand this prediction- the thing you need to know about it is this: it's the MINIMUM number. They weren't reaching for the stars. i am not "predicting", really- i am extrapolating based on data that is ALREADY IN. That's exactly what the CTH model does. For CTH to be wrong, the outcome of the election would have to deviate from the previous 8 elections by 12 points. |
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 23, 2016 13:37:27 GMT -5
i very much doubt, based on what i am seeing so far, that either candidate will get 70M votes. edit: just out of curiosity, what do you expect TURNOUT to be in this election, Paul? I think we'll see 120 million give or take 5 million. We could see as many as 130 million-- but there are so many millions of disengaged, demoralized, and those that just plain HATE Hillary Clinton, that though I full expect a massive Trump landslide-- I expect the Trumpian wave will be offset on the other side by no-shows. the now shows are more likely than the shows, imo. i actually AGREE with your turnout numbers. 130 is unlikely, but possible. |
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swamp
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Post by swamp on Oct 23, 2016 13:37:46 GMT -5
that's really kind, but it is hardly necessary. Democrats won't be doing the same for us. on the contrary, they are going to dance around naked in front of bonfires, bearing the man and lady parts and smoking weed. Wow. I missed that memo. |
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 23, 2016 13:38:23 GMT -5
i am not "predicting", really- i am extrapolating based on data that is ALREADY IN. That's exactly what the CTH model does. For CTH to be wrong, the outcome of the election would have to deviate from the previous 8 elections by 12 points. i wasn't referring to past elections. i was referring to the current election. the number of total ballots collected thusfar is DOWN from 2012. |
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 23, 2016 13:40:03 GMT -5
That's exactly what the CTH model does. For CTH to be wrong, the outcome of the election would have to deviate from the previous 8 elections by 12 points. i wasn't referring to past elections. i was referring to the current election. the number of total ballots collected thusfar is DOWN from 2012. I ask you honestly: who is that typically good / bad for?  |
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 23, 2016 14:35:10 GMT -5
i wasn't referring to past elections. i was referring to the current election. the number of total ballots collected thusfar is DOWN from 2012. I ask you honestly: who is that typically good / bad for? you are missing the point. you have claimed that 7-10M new voters would show up. one might presume that they would show up at all phases of the election process. that includes EARLY VOTING. incidentally, early voting is not down a LITTLE. it is down a LOT. and it is weirdly down more on our side than theirs. |
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Wisconsin Beth
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Oct 23, 2016 17:50:07 GMT -5
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Post by Pants on Oct 23, 2016 18:26:35 GMT -5
I ask you honestly: who is that typically good / bad for? you are missing the point. you have claimed that 7-10M new voters would show up. one might presume that they would show up at all phases of the election process. that includes EARLY VOTING. incidentally, early voting is not down a LITTLE. it is down a LOT. and it is weirdly down more on our side than theirs. Sorry, so you are saying early voting is down on the republican side more than democrats? Source? I haven't heard about this - would be interested to read. |
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Post by Opti on Oct 23, 2016 18:33:32 GMT -5
that's really kind, but it is hardly necessary. Democrats won't be doing the same for us. on the contrary, they are going to dance around naked in front of bonfires, bearing the man and lady parts and smoking weed. Wow. I missed that memo. Me too. I don't really want to bear myself even if it is cold in November. Permission to skip that part?
 
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Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2016 20:05:08 GMT -5
that's really kind, but it is hardly necessary. Democrats won't be doing the same for us. on the contrary, they are going to dance around naked in front of bonfires, bearing the man and lady parts and smoking weed. Unless they've had them removed... of course they will be bearing them!  |
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Pants
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Post by Pants on Oct 23, 2016 20:10:28 GMT -5
both parties are criminal enterprises designed to deprive Americans of their franchise. this is probably why non-partisans outnumber either party- and by a growing margin. This is why a massive coalition of voters have conspired with Trump for the hostile takeover of one of the parties- the weakest, the one without an obvious leader, and a cohesive marketing plan. And that is why VERY EARLY on November 8th, once the media have to admit that Donald J. Trump has won Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania, it will be known that Donald J. Trump is the President elect. This is the fourth of four outlandish predictions made by CTH. All you need to know is that all of the other three were not merely correct-- but were actually underestimated.  What do you think about Conways admission this morning that Trump is "behind"? |
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 23, 2016 20:36:51 GMT -5
Me too. I don't really want to bear myself even if it is cold in November. Permission to skip that part?
second thing i misspelled today. |
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Opti
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Post by Opti on Oct 23, 2016 20:46:30 GMT -5
No worries, I do it all the time. I just found the image it created funny.  |
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 23, 2016 20:50:58 GMT -5
No worries, I do it all the time. I just found the image it created funny. it never bothers me being spell corrected. i actually much prefer it to those that mischaracterize my posts.  |
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Oct 24, 2016 0:09:53 GMT -5
second thing i misspelled today. I'm having a lot of trouble not hearing that in a Maxwell Smart voice. It wasn't, was it? |
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Opti
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Post by Opti on Oct 24, 2016 8:18:42 GMT -5
I don't know what the three predictions were, but I went to CTH and found one. I don't see it as a big stretch prediction and it was not exceeded.
theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/08/03/another-transparent-media-polling-prediction-comes-to-pass/
Common sense would tell you it should be impossible to predict weeks and months in advance. After all, polls should be entirely random, based on current events.
Not exactly true, its known most politicians get a post convention bounce. Its also known it tends to dissipate as time moves forward.
It's an image so I can't copy it, but the prediction was a 10 to 15 point bounce after Hillary's convention. I think only one outlier hit the 15 point mark and its known to be exaggerated on Clinton's behalf. What I remember, might not be accurate, is DJ posted polls and surmised around 9 points per the polls and that it would decay.
I don't know if CTH is gas lighting their followers or really believe they are breaking new ground. The Trump rally stuff doesn't tell you much as you are comparing new, surprising with been here done that. Two Latinas just posed with Eric Trump at a rally. One was definitely not a supporter, maybe both were not. Many people are attending for the spectacle whether they are repeat supporters or people who just want to experience it and will never vote for him. I hope all non Trump folks show up and vote. I don't want us to be complacent like CTH.
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Post by Rukh O'Rorke on Oct 24, 2016 9:05:33 GMT -5
Anyone else thinking about the shock romney/ryan had at not winning?
Polls deemed as "over sampling democrats"?
Megyn kelly schooling a disbelieving carl rove?
Deja vue anyone?
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Opti
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Post by Opti on Oct 24, 2016 9:36:33 GMT -5
Anyone else thinking about the shock romney/ryan had at not winning? Polls deemed as "over sampling democrats"? Megyn kelly schooling a disbelieving carl rove? Deja vue anyone? I don't know if Trump is in denial or he's selling to the bitter end so he has his supporters out voting.
Not sure what's going to happen afterwards.
Somewhat OT -I was looking at the rape case against Trump and Epstein. Something very odd is going on. It appears to me as if it hasn't been heard because of venue disputes. Oddly the hearing scheduled in December seems to be more about venue and even mentions corporations. WTH? Legally corporations can't rape nor can the defendant in a rape case be a corporation. The big money lawyers seem to be pulling out all the stops just to make sure the case is not heard. Check out the legal letter in this URL. lawnewz.com/high-profile/federal-judge-orders-hearing-in-donald-trump-rape-lawsuit-case/
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Post by Opti on Oct 24, 2016 9:37:44 GMT -5
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Pants
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Post by Pants on Oct 24, 2016 9:49:49 GMT -5
Anyone else thinking about the shock romney/ryan had at not winning? Polls deemed as "over sampling democrats"? Megyn kelly schooling a disbelieving carl rove? Deja vue anyone? Yes. My question is around what people will do if HRC wins to resolve the cognitive dissonance. And, for the record, vice versa. Personally, I believe the polls we're seeing are fairly accurate, but there can always be surprises. I try to read a diverse set of news sources - but even Fox News isn't claiming DT is winning. To get that, you have to go to Breitbart, Drudge, etc. If HRC loses, does that mean I have to start reading those sites in order to get a variety/valid overview of news? Does that force me to reevaluate my current beliefs about how biased the media as a whole is? |
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Post by Opti on Oct 24, 2016 11:05:51 GMT -5
Anyone else thinking about the shock romney/ryan had at not winning? Polls deemed as "over sampling democrats"? Megyn kelly schooling a disbelieving carl rove? Deja vue anyone? Yes. My question is around what people will do if HRC wins to resolve the cognitive dissonance. And, for the record, vice versa. Personally, I believe the polls we're seeing are fairly accurate, but there can always be surprises. I try to read a diverse set of news sources - but even Fox News isn't claiming DT is winning. To get that, you have to go to Breitbart, Drudge, etc. If HRC loses, does that mean I have to start reading those sites in order to get a variety/valid overview of news? Does that force me to reevaluate my current beliefs about how biased the media as a whole is? I would think no unless its by a monster amount. I haven't seen anywhere predicting a Clinton win with 100% certainty. |
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Post by dezailoooooo on Oct 24, 2016 11:40:03 GMT -5
that's really kind, but it is hardly necessary. Democrats won't be doing the same for us. on the contrary, they are going to dance around naked in front of bonfires, bearing the man and lady parts and smoking weed. Wo inw. I missed that memo. What Paul is missing is that these other Polls that are coming out predicting anything but what Paul is suggesting..a over whelming Hillery victory are conducted by professionals who do nothing else..actuaries..numbers crushers..investigators..world reknown...this is their thing..pure professionals who may have their favorites but when it comes down to..leave their emotions at the doorway.. I will take these professionals over Pauls, and other emotional types predictions always.. Paul....the Donald is toast, he is going down big time...Whether the Hillery will be able to pull along enough candidates to win the House and Senate back I don't know..will predict with fingers crossed , the Senate by two votes and a pick up in house say 12 seats,,getting closer but no cigar there... |
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swamp
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Post by swamp on Oct 24, 2016 11:42:58 GMT -5
Wo inw. I missed that memo. What Paul is missing is that these other Polls that are coming out predicting anything but what Paul is suggesting..a over whelming Hillery victory are conducted by professionals who do nothing else..actuaries..numbers crushers..investigators..world reknown...this is their thing..pure professionals who may have their favorites but when it comes down to..leave their emotions at the doorway.. I will take these professionals over Pauls, and other emotional types predictions always.. Paul....the Donald is toast, he is going down big time...Whether the Hillery will be able to pull along enough candidates to win the House and Senate back I don't know..will predict with fingers crossed , the Senate by two votes and a pick up in house say 12 seats,,getting closer but no cigar there... what you're missing is that I missed the point about dancing around naked and smoking weed. I don't really care what paul thinks. |
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 24, 2016 11:50:06 GMT -5
Yes. My question is around what people will do if HRC wins to resolve the cognitive dissonance. And, for the record, vice versa. Personally, I believe the polls we're seeing are fairly accurate, but there can always be surprises. I try to read a diverse set of news sources - but even Fox News isn't claiming DT is winning. To get that, you have to go to Breitbart, Drudge, etc. If HRC loses, does that mean I have to start reading those sites in order to get a variety/valid overview of news? Does that force me to reevaluate my current beliefs about how biased the media as a whole is? I would think no unless its by a monster amount. I haven't seen anywhere predicting a Clinton win with 100% certainty. no. the 15% certainty covers a wide range of possibilities. well, ok, it doesn't really cover campaigning. that is absurd, at this point. campaigning will get Trump 1-2% between now and election day. so, the other very limited prospects are: 1) wide polling error. it is unlikely that a dozen pollsters are ALL wrong, but it is possible. i give that 5% probability of a 3%+ error. of course, this error could be in Clinton's favor just as easily as Trumps. it was in Obama's favor, last election. 2) the White Wave. if there really 7-10M deplorables out there that are well organized, not responding to pollsters, and just lurking (already registered, etc), that would make a huge difference for Trump. i give that about a 1% chance. 3) something horrific happening to Clinton between now and election. she has another fainting spell. she is discovered dining on the bones of Republican children. she is put on trial for war crimes. she dies. something like that..... given her age, and her long standing as a public official, i will put the odds of that at 1%, as well- but it would produce a 5-10% movement if something disastrous happened, which would do her candidacy in. 4) campaigning, regression to the mean, etc. this could account for a 2% poll movement by election day. some combination of the four would get Trump there. personally, i think his odds are lower than 15% right now, but that is a nice conservative estimate, and i tend to guess conservatively so as to not be wildly wrong if i am wrong at all. |
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Post by happyhoix on Oct 24, 2016 11:52:11 GMT -5
Anyone else thinking about the shock romney/ryan had at not winning? Polls deemed as "over sampling democrats"? Megyn kelly schooling a disbelieving carl rove? Deja vue anyone? Believe it or not, I saw a piece of video with Karl Rove saying Trump won't win this AM.
Maybe that Megyn Kelly shaming was enough to make him cautious.
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Oct 24, 2016 11:55:04 GMT -5
That's not NEARLY as entertaining as those who don't do so.... |
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