I was right: President Elect Trump

[djAdvocate]

Sept 13, 2016 16:59:16 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Sept 12, 2016 10:46:45 GMT -5 Opti said:

If that were really true, you wouldn't be posting. It wouldn't be worth your time.

Oh, yes it is. I have a Romney prediction to live down. That's what makes this so much fun! 

Oh the gloating. The glorious gloating. It's going to be grand!

you won't have much room to gloat, but we might, in our graciousness, call it even. 

[djAdvocate]

Sept 13, 2016 16:58:14 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

OK, let us have a moment of candor. Who is ready, regardless of their political views, or support for a particular candiate, to admit that the odds of Trump becoming the next President just got better?

RCP is now Clinton 45.8% to Trump 43.4% - Clinton + 2.4% nationally and the electoral map prediction just went from a 75 vote lead for Clinton to a 55 vote lead.

I used to have a source- that sadly, quit- but that had the county by county polling. I wish I could find that because this race is going to come down to 7 or 8 counties if it is a traditional race- then you could chuck these national polls and statewide polls and get down to the nitty gritty.

Clinton has no lead on the RCP electoral map.  there are something like 175 EC votes in the swing category on that map.

edit: i am not a fan of that map, because the states they call "leaning" are "sure things" in my opinion, and many of what i would call "leaning" states are shown in "tossup".  IE- there is no way that Trump loses MO, imo.  and there is no way that he wins VA or PA, imo.  the demographics are just hugely against either of those events.  i know you have stated otherwise, but i don't think you are being realistic.  Hillary has a better chance of winning GEORGIA than Trump has of winning Virginia.  that is not going to happen either.  if you HAVE to use RCP, use THIS map:

www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map_no_toss_ups.html

it is also not very realistic, but at least it gets it generally right.  the state polls are really not that close right now, except in 4 states- which i have discussed at length on the other thread.  if i were to bet, i would bet that they have NC and FL backwards on this map, but other than that, i think it is a pretty accurate picture.

at the very worst moment of the campaign for Trump, about 6 weeks ago, i had him at nearly 1:4.  now he is 1:2.  not the favourite, but certainly better- his odds of WINNING have nearly doubled. 

of course, you would know that if you were following my thread on the subject. 

[mmhmm]

Sept 13, 2016 17:09:50 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Sept 13, 2016 16:59:16 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Oh, yes it is. I have a Romney prediction to live down. That's what makes this so much fun! 

Oh the gloating. The glorious gloating. It's going to be grand!

you won't have much room to gloat, but we might, in our graciousness, call it even. 

Speak for yourself, ol' chap! 

[djAdvocate]

Sept 13, 2016 17:19:35 GMT -5 mmhmm said:

Sept 13, 2016 17:09:50 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

you won't have much room to gloat, but we might, in our graciousness, call it even. 

Speak for yourself, ol' chap! 

fine.  call it the royal "we" then.  i am a very forgiving fellow. 

[Deleted]

Odds are still at Clinton 69 to Trump 31.... Odds don't = the spread in the national. That's just not how this election thing happens. 

[happyhoix]

I don't know how a candidate for a major party can get elected without the total support of his party, and Trump still doesn't have that.

Leaked emails show that former Republican secretary of State Colin Powell thinks Trump is a disgrace.

www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/reports-colin-powell-calls-donald-trump-a-national-disgrace-in-hacked-emails/ar-BBw7TRy?ocid=iehp

And Pence is unsuccessful in rallying GOP members of congress.

www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/mike-pence-is-rebuffed-as-he-tries-to-rally-gop-leaders-over-%e2%80%98deplorables%e2%80%99/ar-BBw7Vq2?ocid=iehp

Pence failed mostly due to his problem with calling David Duke 'deplorable.' But McCain won't get on the Trump bandwagon because of Trumps bromance with Putin. (I love how Pence argued to the GOP crowd that 'Trump is a different person in private - he even has a spiritual side.' What does that matter when a president leads the country with his public side?)

I don't recall a candidate who was able to win the presidential election without the support of a big part his party before, but I could be wrong. I'm only a little bit of a history geek and I'm fallible.

[billisonboard]

But remember, it is these guys who will help create the Trump landslide:

[happyhoix]

Obama just gave a stirring speech in PA asking young voters, people who supported him in the last election, to come out to support Hillary in November. Don't know if that will convince them, but it can't hurt.

Trump has his devoted 40% of the electorate, but in order to win, he needs more young voters, women voters and college educated voters. He needs someone with an approval rating like Obama out there banging the drum for him, too. He won't get it with support from people like Chris Christie, whose approval rating hit the lowest mark ever - 29% - in May. He needs the bulk of the GOP to talk him up, not pretend he doesn't exist.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

LA TIMES: Trump +5

BLOOMBERG: Trump +5 in OH

JMC: +4 in FLA

POLITICO: 30% believe Hillary will be dead before 2020. 44% believe her poor health will hurt her ability to be President.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Sept 14, 2016 8:36:40 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

Obama just gave a stirring speech in PA asking young voters, people who supported him in the last election, to come out to support Hillary in November. Don't know if that will convince them, but it can't hurt.

Trump has his devoted 40% of the electorate, but in order to win, he needs more young voters, women voters and college educated voters. He needs someone with an approval rating like Obama out there banging the drum for him, too. He won't get it with support from people like Chris Christie, whose approval rating hit the lowest mark ever - 29% - in May. He needs the bulk of the GOP to talk him up, not pretend he doesn't exist.

The speech for Hillary where he referred to himself 137 times?
www.theamericanmirror.com/video-obama-talks-137-times-speech-hillary/

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Here's something you NEVER read about: Republican voter registration surge in key states...


bigstory.ap.org/article/d1c611a35aa5488789e0ad0cf4f2e818/gop-gains-ground-dems-voter-registration-key-states

[djAdvocate]

Trump has had some favorable polling.  i am putting him at 1:2 right now.  this is the best spot he has been in since the Democratic convention.

[happyhoix]

Sept 14, 2016 10:31:03 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

LA TIMES: Trump +5

BLOOMBERG: Trump +5 in OH

JMC: +4 in FLA

POLITICO: 30% believe Hillary will be dead before 2020. 44% believe her poor health will hurt her ability to be President.

This is the same 30 -44% that would still vote for Trump if he shot someone on the street in broad daylight so - not surprising.

[djAdvocate]

Sept 14, 2016 11:21:44 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

Sept 14, 2016 10:31:03 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

LA TIMES: Trump +5

BLOOMBERG: Trump +5 in OH

JMC: +4 in FLA

POLITICO: 30% believe Hillary will be dead before 2020. 44% believe her poor health will hurt her ability to be President.

This is the same 30 -44% that would still vote for Trump if he shot someone on the street in broad daylight so - not surprising.

these are the best numbers for Trump since the Democratic Convention, so i would not be so quick to dismiss them.

on the other hand, you are correct.  none of these polls shows The Donald with his vaunted 52%. 

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

The "Primary Model" - correct in five out of five of the last elections: All but certain Trump will be elected in November.

thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/campaign/295532-why-a-trump-victory-in-november-is-a-virtually-certainty

One model, however, begs to differ. It is one that, with slight variations, has accurately predicted the winner of the popular vote in each of the last five presidential elections, ever since it was introduced in 1996.

Dubbed the “Primary Model,” it puts much stock in using primary results to forecast the vote in the general election. It also takes advantage of a historical tendency of the electoral pendulum to swing back and forth between the two parties. Both factors favor Trump over Clinton in 2016.
Trump proved to be the stronger candidate in primaries, according to the metric used by the model, and the electoral pendulum is poised to swing back to the Republican side after two Democratic terms in the White House under Barack Obama. The Primary Model predicts that Trump will defeat Clinton by 52.5 percent to 47.5 percent of the two-party vote. It is 87-percent certain that he will be the next President.

How does the model produce this forecast?

To begin with, the predictive power of primary elections was revealed, though not noticed by anyone, the first time a significant number of states used them for the presidential nomination. The year was 1912. That they have been around so long may come as a surprise to many. Republican William Howard Taft was in the White House, seeking a second term. Theodore Roosevelt challenged Taft for the GOP nomination and beat him soundly in the party’s presidential primaries.

The Republican convention nonetheless handed Taft the nomination. On the Democratic side, Woodrow Wilson was the winner in that party’s primaries, received the nomination and went on to win the general election. Lesson: the party with a primary winner beats the one with a candidate loser. The 1912 case is no fluke. In general, the party with the stronger candidate in primaries tends to win in November.

My forecasts of the 2000-2012 elections used only the first primary, the one in New Hampshire, making it possible to offer a forecast early in the election year. That may prove to be a risky choice, however, for an election in which one of the candidates has strong support in a group of voters that barely exists in New Hampshire.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Democrats increasingly concerned that their once "certain" takeover of the Senate is in jeopardy due to GOP fundraising advantage...

Of note: Ohio, and Florida.

Hmmm, interesting. So, Hillary is going to win OH and FL but Dems won't win the Senate races there?

bigstory.ap.org/article/5dce5719c7cf427ea7d56bae389ca155/democrats-fear-their-senate-takeover-chances-dimming

Another concern is Clinton's sometimes weak performance as a candidate, particularly pronounced over the past days as her campaign contended with questions over its handling of her health.

[djAdvocate]

Sept 14, 2016 11:40:35 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

My forecasts of the 2000-2012 elections used only the first primary, the one in New Hampshire, making it possible to offer a forecast early in the election year. That may prove to be a risky choice, however, for an election in which one of the candidates has strong support in a group of voters that barely exists in New Hampshire.

yeah, i will agree with that.  that is a VERY risky strategy.

[djAdvocate]

Sept 14, 2016 11:45:02 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Democrats increasingly concerned that their once "certain" takeover of the Senate is in jeopardy due to GOP fundraising advantage...

whoa there, nelly.  nobody ever said certain, did they?

[Deleted]

Sept 12, 2016 11:02:46 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Sept 12, 2016 10:04:44 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Basically, by dragging Hillary this far- the Democrats are now in a living nightmare: Donald Trump is running virtually un-opposed. Kind of like when Obama took out his opponents via unsealed court docs, and when JFK, Jr. died in that plane crash giving Hillary the Senate seat...

JFKJ died due to gross negligence for a VFR pilot.  only an idiot would have flown that day.  most of us VFR pilots think to themselves after reading a description of the conditions during his crash "that guy deserved to die" without saying it outloud- but i will do so now, at the risk of appearing insensitive to the very idea of death.  flying is very unforgiving to brazen stupidity.

and what is this about "court docs"?

And to an aging pilot's inability to react or respond correctly and quickly enough to a possibly life ending situation.  I once either forgot to set the altimeter to a runway altitude or entered an erroneous number on approach and was off by a couple hundred feet at night and clipped a treetop with the landing gear.  I did however sell the plane two years ago which was the follow up, correct response, after it happened. 

[djAdvocate]

Sept 14, 2016 12:13:46 GMT -5 @jma23 said:

Sept 12, 2016 11:02:46 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

JFKJ died due to gross negligence for a VFR pilot.  only an idiot would have flown that day.  most of us VFR pilots think to themselves after reading a description of the conditions during his crash "that guy deserved to die" without saying it outloud- but i will do so now, at the risk of appearing insensitive to the very idea of death.  flying is very unforgiving to brazen stupidity.

and what is this about "court docs"?

And to an aging pilot's inability to react or respond correctly and quickly enough to a possibly life ending situation.  I once either forgot to set the altimeter to a runway altitude or entered an erroneous number on approach and was off by a couple hundred feet at night and clipped a treetop with the landing gear.  I did however sell the plane two years ago which was the follow up, correct response, after it happened. 

i have had two close calls flying.  the first time i was flying over the central valley at night, and i got too low to be able to use ground references.  i panicked, and could easily have died.  i got up to altitude and asked for flight following and they guided me in.

the second time, i was returning home, and the airport was fogged in.  this time i reacted with total calm.  i rerouted to the nearest airport, and i called the FAA and cancelled my flight plan.

flying is an unforgiving hobby if you lose your senses, even for a minute.

[Pants]

Can we please get back to fighting about Trump? I need entertaining today. 

[ken a.k.a OMK]

Trump just landed in Flint Michigan to tour the water plant. The mayor told him not to come and he was told no tour because they didn't want to be distracted from their work. Well he doesn't listen well.

[Tennesseer]

Sept 14, 2016 13:57:10 GMT -5 ken a.k.a OMK said:

Trump just landed in Flint Michigan to tour the water plant. The mayor told him not to come and he was told no tour because they didn't want to be distracted from their work. Well he doesn't listen well.

If Putin told him not to go, Trump wouldn't go. But Putin was silent on this one.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Sept 14, 2016 13:57:10 GMT -5 ken a.k.a OMK said:

Trump just landed in Flint Michigan to tour the water plant. The mayor told him not to come and he was told no tour because they didn't want to be distracted from their work. Well he doesn't listen well.

No, he doesn't. And he's not going to. He's running a campaign where the fundamental promise is that government is going to be responsive to problems like this. And he's not going to let these people hide, or block his message because it creates discomfort for them, or because they oppose him politically. 

That's why I say- Trump is not my candidate. He's the weapon of my indignation. He is the slap upside the head politicians and bureaucrats have been crying out for since 1988-- and he is delivering.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Sept 14, 2016 12:13:46 GMT -5 @jma23 said:

Sept 12, 2016 11:02:46 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

JFKJ died due to gross negligence for a VFR pilot.  only an idiot would have flown that day.  most of us VFR pilots think to themselves after reading a description of the conditions during his crash "that guy deserved to die" without saying it outloud- but i will do so now, at the risk of appearing insensitive to the very idea of death.  flying is very unforgiving to brazen stupidity.

and what is this about "court docs"?

And to an aging pilot's inability to react or respond correctly and quickly enough to a possibly life ending situation.  I once either forgot to set the altimeter to a runway altitude or entered an erroneous number on approach and was off by a couple hundred feet at night and clipped a treetop with the landing gear.  I did however sell the plane two years ago which was the follow up, correct response, after it happened. 

The point is that Hillary is an extraordinarily weak candidate, who crumbles at the first sign of a real challenge. She would have lost her Senate bid in a landslide if JFK, Jr. had lived to oppose her. He was a shoe-in to the carpet bagger from Arkansas. Obama beat her badly. Sanders, but for what we now know was the total rigging of the primary process in favor of Hillary, would have beaten her. And Trump's going to wallop her.

[Pants]

I hope no more natural disasters happen soon because I miss Paul too much when he's gone.

[Tennesseer]

Sept 14, 2016 15:43:04 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Sept 14, 2016 12:13:46 GMT -5 @jma23 said:

And to an aging pilot's inability to react or respond correctly and quickly enough to a possibly life ending situation.  I once either forgot to set the altimeter to a runway altitude or entered an erroneous number on approach and was off by a couple hundred feet at night and clipped a treetop with the landing gear.  I did however sell the plane two years ago which was the follow up, correct response, after it happened. 

The point is that Hillary is an extraordinarily weak candidate, who crumbles at the first sign of a real challenge. She would have lost her Senate bid in a landslide if JFK, Jr. had lived to oppose her. He was a shoe-in to the carpet bagger from Arkansas. Obama beat her badly. Sanders, but for what we now know was the total rigging of the primary process in favor of Hillary, would have beaten her. And Trump's going to wallop her.

Politics
Kennedy was asked publicly if he was interested in politics as a career. He replied no, for the time being, but would not rule it out for the future.[19] Ted Kennedy believed that politics was John's destiny, and urged him to run for several offices. By the summer of 1999, Ted believed that the best chance to return a Kennedy to the White House would be for John to run for Governor of New York in 2002.

John F. Kennedy Jr.

[billisonboard]

Sept 14, 2016 15:39:00 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

... He is the slap upside the head politicians and bureaucrats have been crying out for since 1988-- and he is delivering.

The problem I see is that if he wins the election he will be responsible for the day to day executive governance of this nation for 1461 days. IM(not so)HO, head slapping isn't very effective over that long of a haul.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Trump is up +2 in Colorado. www.denverpost.com/2016/09/13/donald-trump-momentum-colorado-polls-narrow/

Trump is down -3 in Maine- leads by 10 in important 2nd Congressional District: www.270towin.com/news/2016/09/14/poll-trump-within-3-in-maine-leads-by-10-in-2nd-congressional-district_371.html#.V9m6Y5grKUk

Trump is up +5 in Ohio according to Bloomberg: assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/r2.771xfmKOI/v0

Trump has a +3 point lead in Florida: thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/295979-poll-trump-clinton-in-close-race-in-florida-ohio

[dondub]

Govt. is going to be responsive to problems like Flint? HAHAHAHAHA

The conservative govt. in charge there caused the problem in the first place due to felonious malfeasance.