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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 30, 2016 18:55:37 GMT -5
oh good. i was worried you had changed your mind.
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dezailoooooo
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Post by dezailoooooo on Aug 30, 2016 19:11:17 GMT -5
Reverse Bradley effect is not likely.
1) People don't have a problem saying they don't like Hillary. About 51% of the country says they don't like her already. So people are not likely to claim they will vote for Hillary and then vote for Trump instead, just because voting for Hillary is 'cool.' It isn't cool at all. If she wasn't running against Trump, hardly anyone would be voting for her. 2) Trump has a better shot at the large number of voters who still are undecided. If every undecided voter ended up voting for Trump, he might win. But odds are, the undecided will probably split 50/50, or just not vote at all. Chances of every undecided voter voting for Trump are very slim to none.
On point 1) What is the "cool" answer this election cycle? What's the late night comedy TV answer to who you're voting for? What's your "out" this year? The question almost answers itself, but since someone here won't get it-- I'll help you out-- using hashtags: #NeverHillary #NeverTrump. 2) There are fewer undecideds than people think-- there always are. Here's where Trump has an advantage: he locked in hard core support early, and Trump voters are the most "certain they'll vote" crowd out there. He's got a rock-ribbed base of "likely voters" who have blinders on-- they're going to vote for him and it doesn't matter what he says or does because he conveys a credible "outsider" status. Trump is winning, and he is winning big. People downplay his record shattering primary vote total (in a 17 person race), they downplay the fact he holds one rally after another to large, packed venues. Trump appears on hard news shows-- Hillary is approaching 270 days without a press conference. Trump is speaking before voters in arenas, Hillary is going to fundraisers. Someone ask Jeb how that plan worked out? Trump's real strength is not with "likely voters". It's with people that haven't voted in years. Anecdotal point- our elderly neighbors have not cast a vote since Perot in 1992, and they are enthusiastic TRUMP supporters. They are not alone. I know people that didn't vote for Romney, and didn't vote for McCain-- we're all voting Trump. You don't have to believe me. There's every reason not to. However, there's one big reason to believe me: this has been anything but an ordinary year, and the the Trump card is The Donald. For every Ceasar Milktoast establishment David French wringing his hands and expressing their concern in a nasally tone on Sunday talk shows nobody under 80 watches anymore, there are 100,000 fired up Trumpists champing at the bit to take their country back. Mark. My. Words. Trump is going to be elected, and it's not going to be close. it has been a very long time and I may have u confused with someone else Paul...but didn't u make the same prediction..[ party, not individual..]eight years ago about O'bama..possible four years too and were so greatly..really greatly..wrong. just saying... I feel completly different..believe Hillery will win..whether squeaking through or by a landside..electorial wise..either way, a win....I also predict the Donald will not be graciouse..will accuse all and everyone of cheating..media, gop r's who didn't vote for him, dems, seniors, black , martians , venutians of conspiring against him..and not ask his supporters to recognize the Hillery as the new top person on the block..[sigh] I know about Dewey back in the day..[I was here for that one..yes a kid...though next morning my dad did say he knew Truman was going to win..funny how I remember that as if like yesterday...however polling has come a long way since then so feel preety good going in to this november..or at least now 60 some days away... |
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 30, 2016 19:18:55 GMT -5
On point 1) What is the "cool" answer this election cycle? What's the late night comedy TV answer to who you're voting for? What's your "out" this year? The question almost answers itself, but since someone here won't get it-- I'll help you out-- using hashtags: #NeverHillary #NeverTrump. 2) There are fewer undecideds than people think-- there always are. Here's where Trump has an advantage: he locked in hard core support early, and Trump voters are the most "certain they'll vote" crowd out there. He's got a rock-ribbed base of "likely voters" who have blinders on-- they're going to vote for him and it doesn't matter what he says or does because he conveys a credible "outsider" status. Trump is winning, and he is winning big. People downplay his record shattering primary vote total (in a 17 person race), they downplay the fact he holds one rally after another to large, packed venues. Trump appears on hard news shows-- Hillary is approaching 270 days without a press conference. Trump is speaking before voters in arenas, Hillary is going to fundraisers. Someone ask Jeb how that plan worked out? Trump's real strength is not with "likely voters". It's with people that haven't voted in years. Anecdotal point- our elderly neighbors have not cast a vote since Perot in 1992, and they are enthusiastic TRUMP supporters. They are not alone. I know people that didn't vote for Romney, and didn't vote for McCain-- we're all voting Trump. You don't have to believe me. There's every reason not to. However, there's one big reason to believe me: this has been anything but an ordinary year, and the the Trump card is The Donald. For every Ceasar Milktoast establishment David French wringing his hands and expressing their concern in a nasally tone on Sunday talk shows nobody under 80 watches anymore, there are 100,000 fired up Trumpists champing at the bit to take their country back. Mark. My. Words. Trump is going to be elected, and it's not going to be close. it has been a very long time and I may have u confused with someone else Paul...but didn't u make the same prediction..[ party, not individual..]eight years ago about O'bama..possible four years too and were so greatly..really greatly..wrong. just saying... I feel completly different..believe Hillery will win..whether squeaking through or by a landside..electorial wise..either way, a win....I also predict the Donald will not be graciouse..will accuse all and everyone of cheating..media, gop r's who didn't vote for him, dems, seniors, black , martians , venutians of conspiring against him..and not ask his supporters to recognize the Hillery as the new top person on the block..[sigh] I know about Dewey back in the day..[I was here for that one..yes a kid...though next morning my dad did say he knew Truman was going to win..funny how I remember that as if like yesterday...however polling has come a long way since then so feel preety good going in to this november..or at least now 60 some days away... MittMentum. i am sure it is still in the archives. |
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Post by Tennesseer on Aug 30, 2016 19:20:24 GMT -5
it has been a very long time and I may have u confused with someone else Paul...but didn't u make the same prediction..[ party, not individual..]eight years ago about O'bama..possible four years too and were so greatly..really greatly..wrong. just saying... I feel completly different..believe Hillery will win..whether squeaking through or by a landside..electorial wise..either way, a win....I also predict the Donald will not be graciouse..will accuse all and everyone of cheating..media, gop r's who didn't vote for him, dems, seniors, black , martians , venutians of conspiring against him..and not ask his supporters to recognize the Hillery as the new top person on the block..[sigh] I know about Dewey back in the day..[I was here for that one..yes a kid...though next morning my dad did say he knew Truman was going to win..funny how I remember that as if like yesterday...however polling has come a long way since then so feel preety good going in to this november..or at least now 60 some days away... MittMentum. i am sure it is still in the archives. I just linked it on Paul's latest thread. |
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Post by Opti on Aug 30, 2016 19:43:52 GMT -5
I find it interesting that Trump has apparently gotten some people fixated on Presidential candidate press conferences. Something that wasn't even done until Nixon. My guess is Trump is busy holding press conferences to make up for the fact he's banning so much of the press from his rallies, and/or its just part of his media circus image he loves so much. Honestly I think presidential candidates usually have about two press conferences the entire campaign season generally, or perhaps three. One to announce they are running, two to announce their VP pick, and three their victory or concession speech.
Why is Trump calling all these press conferences? Because its Tuesday? Another shakeup in his campaign team?  |
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Post by Opti on Aug 30, 2016 20:14:13 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 30, 2016 20:30:37 GMT -5
omg. this is both funny and really politically smart. |
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 30, 2016 20:32:45 GMT -5
I find it interesting that Trump has apparently gotten some people fixated on Presidential candidate press conferences. Something that wasn't even done until Nixon. My guess is Trump is busy holding press conferences to make up for the fact he's banning so much of the press from his rallies, and/or its just part of his media circus image he loves so much. Honestly I think presidential candidates usually have about two press conferences the entire campaign season generally, or perhaps three. One to announce they are running, two to announce their VP pick, and three their victory or concession speech.
Why is Trump calling all these press conferences? Because its Tuesday? Another shakeup in his campaign team? what Trump doesn't get is that most people already know what Clinton's policy positions are. we heard them 8 years ago, and they haven't changed much. nobody knows what his are, so he NEEDS to hold press conferences. but sure, let's just pretend for a second that Clinton needs to hold more press conferences, and see where that gets him. to review- he has been doing stuff like this for (4) weeks now, and his poll position is precisely the same as it was then. |
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Post by tallguy on Aug 30, 2016 20:48:43 GMT -5
To go back to last night for a moment, it occurs to me that we don't need Richard to find his even-odds quote for us. Paul should be willing to give US odds on a Clinton win.  |
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 30, 2016 20:51:04 GMT -5
i tried to hint at that possibility, but it seems to have fallen flat.
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 30, 2016 20:52:01 GMT -5
i wonder if it is just me, or does anyone else have "Trump Fatigue"?
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Post by Jaguar on Aug 30, 2016 20:56:18 GMT -5
i wonder if it is just me, or does anyone else have "Trump Fatigue"? Yup I got it, I cannot read anything about Trump or that whole family. It irritates me just to see a image of him. I got the Trump Blues really bad...... |
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Aug 30, 2016 20:57:21 GMT -5
Since around late December of last year.
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tallguy
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Post by tallguy on Aug 30, 2016 21:00:02 GMT -5
i tried to hint at that possibility, but it seems to have fallen flat. Well there's your problem. Trying to hint to someone who misses even obvious things. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 30, 2016 21:14:02 GMT -5
i wonder if it is just me, or does anyone else have "Trump Fatigue"? Nope. Not just you. Some us are suffering from that and also suffering from "Hillary Fatigue" as well too. |
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weltschmerz
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Post by weltschmerz on Aug 31, 2016 3:39:35 GMT -5
Donald Trump's modeling company was a “crooked agency” that put young women into “modern-day slavery” and had them working in the U.S. illegally, former models for the organization claimed in a bombshell report published Tuesday. Trump Model Management, which was founded by the GOP nominee in 1999, has made its money on foreign models working in the U.S. illegally and under horrible conditions, several former models told Mother Jones magazine. Trump profited from foreign labor, and often illegal workers, while the GOP nominee on the campaign trail bashed immigrants and threatened to “round up” 11 million undocumented immigrants with a “deportation force.” “He doesn’t like the face of a Mexican or a Muslim,” Kate said, referencing Trump’s proposals to ban all Muslims and to build a wall along the border. “But because these models are beautiful girls, it’s OK? He’s such a hypocrite www.msn.com/en-ca/news/politics/models-at-trumps-agency-worked-in-us-illegally-report/ar-AAigHcx?li=AAacUQk&ocid=spartanntp |
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Jaguar
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Post by Jaguar on Aug 31, 2016 5:06:31 GMT -5
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Aug 31, 2016 6:45:56 GMT -5
Yes, but when he uses undocumented models it's because they're really very fabulously beautiful, really the most beautiful models ever, and when he uses undocumented Polish laborers it's because they're just the hardest working, most fabulous, so very fabulous workers ever, and besides, those models and workers really really like him, I mean, they just think Trump is the most fabulous person ever, so obviously, it was a fantastic business move on his part to illegally bring them into the country.
Obviously.
Fabulously.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Aug 31, 2016 6:47:12 GMT -5
On point 1) What is the "cool" answer this election cycle? What's the late night comedy TV answer to who you're voting for? What's your "out" this year? The question almost answers itself, but since someone here won't get it-- I'll help you out-- using hashtags: #NeverHillary #NeverTrump. 2) There are fewer undecideds than people think-- there always are. Here's where Trump has an advantage: he locked in hard core support early, and Trump voters are the most "certain they'll vote" crowd out there. He's got a rock-ribbed base of "likely voters" who have blinders on-- they're going to vote for him and it doesn't matter what he says or does because he conveys a credible "outsider" status. Trump is winning, and he is winning big. People downplay his record shattering primary vote total (in a 17 person race), they downplay the fact he holds one rally after another to large, packed venues. Trump appears on hard news shows-- Hillary is approaching 270 days without a press conference. Trump is speaking before voters in arenas, Hillary is going to fundraisers. Someone ask Jeb how that plan worked out? Trump's real strength is not with "likely voters". It's with people that haven't voted in years. Anecdotal point- our elderly neighbors have not cast a vote since Perot in 1992, and they are enthusiastic TRUMP supporters. They are not alone. I know people that didn't vote for Romney, and didn't vote for McCain-- we're all voting Trump. You don't have to believe me. There's every reason not to. However, there's one big reason to believe me: this has been anything but an ordinary year, and the the Trump card is The Donald. For every Ceasar Milktoast establishment David French wringing his hands and expressing their concern in a nasally tone on Sunday talk shows nobody under 80 watches anymore, there are 100,000 fired up Trumpists champing at the bit to take their country back. Mark. My. Words. Trump is going to be elected, and it's not going to be close. it has been a very long time and I may have u confused with someone else Paul...but didn't u make the same prediction..[ party, not individual..]eight years ago about O'bama..possible four years too and were so greatly..really greatly..wrong. just saying... I feel completly different..believe Hillery will win..whether squeaking through or by a landside..electorial wise..either way, a win....I also predict the Donald will not be graciouse..will accuse all and everyone of cheating..media, gop r's who didn't vote for him, dems, seniors, black , martians , venutians of conspiring against him..and not ask his supporters to recognize the Hillery as the new top person on the block..[sigh] I know about Dewey back in the day..[I was here for that one..yes a kid...though next morning my dad did say he knew Truman was going to win..funny how I remember that as if like yesterday...however polling has come a long way since then so feel preety good going in to this november..or at least now 60 some days away... Yes.
Same don't.doubt.me.ever. poster from the Mitt era.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Aug 31, 2016 7:07:24 GMT -5
On point 1) What is the "cool" answer this election cycle? What's the late night comedy TV answer to who you're voting for? What's your "out" this year? The question almost answers itself, but since someone here won't get it-- I'll help you out-- using hashtags: #NeverHillary #NeverTrump. 2) There are fewer undecideds than people think-- there always are. Here's where Trump has an advantage: he locked in hard core support early, and Trump voters are the most "certain they'll vote" crowd out there. He's got a rock-ribbed base of "likely voters" who have blinders on-- they're going to vote for him and it doesn't matter what he says or does because he conveys a credible "outsider" status. No. There are more undecided this election than in the last four elections, mostly because both candidates have such high negative likeability numbers. The undecided will probably break evenly between the two candidates, in the end. They will not all go to Trump. election.princeton.edu/2016/07/07/is-85-an-underestimate/
Trump is winning, and he is winning big. People downplay his record shattering primary vote total (in a 17 person race), they downplay the fact he holds one rally after another to large, packed venues. Trump appears on hard news shows-- Hillary is approaching 270 days without a press conference. Trump is speaking before voters in arenas, Hillary is going to fundraisers. Someone ask Jeb how that plan worked out? By 'arenas' do you mean hotel conference rooms that hold 1000 people, 'packed' with 1200 for Trump's speech? Be careful of only reading the far right descriptions of Trumps' events, they are prone to hyperbole. (Much like Trump is). Trump's real strength is not with "likely voters". It's with people that haven't voted in years. Anecdotal point- our elderly neighbors have not cast a vote since Perot in 1992, and they are enthusiastic TRUMP supporters. They are not alone. I know people that didn't vote for Romney, and didn't vote for McCain-- we're all voting Trump. Trump's Achilles heel is women voters. Historically, dems got 8% more female voters than their GOP rivals in the last POTUS elections - but this year, the gap is more like 16% voting dem rather than GOP. Your mystery/monster/hidden voters can't make up for this shortfall, considering half the US population is female - and considering Trump, while lately making noises about trying to bring non-white voters into the fold, still hasn't figured out what he needs to do to make himself more attractive to bring women into the fold. I'll see your anecdotal point and raise you one - my sister, a life long conservative GOP voter and her GOP voting daughter, both told me they are not voting for Trump. They may not vote for Hillary, but they are not voting for Trump. I think that voting segment right there - the disgruntled female GOP voters - may be Trump's monster voters, but not in the way you think. You don't have to believe me. There's every reason not to. However, there's one big reason to believe me: this has been anything but an ordinary year, and the the Trump card is The Donald. For every Ceasar Milktoast establishment David French wringing his hands and expressing their concern in a nasally tone on Sunday talk shows nobody under 80 watches anymore, there are 100,000 fired up Trumpists champing at the bit to take their country back. Mark. My. Words. Trump is going to be elected, and it's not going to be close.Wow. Deja vu all over again. |
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Aug 31, 2016 8:51:45 GMT -5
I never realized how smart Trump was until I started reading these news stories posted here.
Yes,,,,, It amazes me that Trump can micro micro manage down through all of those General Contractors,
contractor, sub contractor and sub sub contractors, to the point that he knew which ones were illegal just so he could pay sub standard wages!!!
With the modeling agency, they found like what, four people that were unhappy with how they were treated??
In doing interviews, how many applicants say my previous employer was great and I was overpaid!!! Yeaaaa , right!!
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 31, 2016 11:05:57 GMT -5
I never realized how smart Trump was until I started reading these news stories posted here. Yes,,,,, It amazes me that Trump can micro micro manage down through all of those General Contractors, contractor, sub contractor and sub sub contractors, to the point that he knew which ones were illegal just so he could pay sub standard wages!!! With the modeling agency, they found like what, four people that were unhappy with how they were treated?? In doing interviews, how many applicants say my previous employer was great and I was overpaid!!! Yeaaaa , right!! the fish rots from the head down. |
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 31, 2016 14:53:42 GMT -5
good for him. plays right into Hillary's hand.
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Post by happyhoix on Aug 31, 2016 17:08:02 GMT -5
What will be interesting is his upcoming speech on immigration today. I think we're up to Trump's Immigration Policy 72.0 by now.
I'm curious to see if he'll back track to the old 'kick them all out' policy that first galvanized his voting base to support him, or if he's going to stick with the kinder, gentler, 'let's not be mean to these people' policy he's been advocating for the last week or so, when he started to realize he wasn't going to win this thing with just white middle aged men alone.
Then there is always the potential for him to go off-script, with deliciously hostile salad statements that he will end up having to back away from tomorrow, explaining that he 'changed his words' again.
Saw that he had a nice visit with the Mexican president today but apparently forgot to ask him to pay for his wall.
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Wisconsin Beth
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Post by Wisconsin Beth on Aug 31, 2016 17:11:27 GMT -5
I admit, I've been surprised at how low key he's been the last week or so.
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Aug 31, 2016 17:17:04 GMT -5
I mentioned his need for a Thorazine enema. It's obviously working.
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Post by happyhoix on Aug 31, 2016 17:29:37 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Aug 31, 2016 19:19:03 GMT -5
good for him. plays right into Hillary's hand. I'm confused, is Hillary's hand to continue to f&ck minorities? your post isn't clear to me, but it's been a hard, contentious day at work. apparently so. why don't you try again sometime when you are less stressed out?  |
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Aug 31, 2016 19:19:33 GMT -5
"Pravda"....that's rich. The Seattle Times is independently owned and was always the conservative of the papers here. It's boringly centrist now. Of course I read the front page story and especially enjoyed the part about no big name state repos joining him on stage. Many have already disavowed him. I failed to find any of what could be considered incredulity at the size of the crown mentioned as "several thousand".
old.seattletimes.com/PDF/frontpage.pdf |
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Aug 31, 2016 19:57:19 GMT -5
Just to compare, the 4th place Seattle Storm of the WNBA had a crowd of 9481 last Friday night. |
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