I was right: President Elect Trump

[Deleted]

Aug 25, 2016 8:38:28 GMT -5 NomoreDramaQ1015 said:

Aug 25, 2016 8:36:34 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

I wonder how many people are so emotionally "invested" in Trump that they will have to vote for him rather than admit they got played?

I bet quite a few are going to want to "save face" and will do the mental gymnastics needed to convince themselves this was Trump's plan all along.

The only way to save face by voting for either Trump or Hillary is... if the exit to the polling booth is blocked by a giant shredder... and only a vote for one of them will disengage it and move it out of the way. Voting for one of them would then "save your face" (ETA: along with the whole rest of you).




This PSA was brought to you by the council of "Where the hell are the REAL candidates? HHHMMMMMMM? Joke is over, you got us. Seriously... come on out now!"

[Deleted]

Aug 26, 2016 19:43:06 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Aug 26, 2016 12:46:22 GMT -5 @jma23 said:

The people that feel a need to defend themselves from this post ?    (Sorry, you left yourself wide open for that one)

It was you who posted a hackneyed cliche.

It was done all in humor.

[billisonboard]

Aug 27, 2016 12:00:26 GMT -5 @jma23 said:

Aug 26, 2016 19:43:06 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

It was you who posted a hackneyed cliche.

It was done all in humor.

[weltschmerz]

What a dick!

Donald Trump is once again igniting outrage with a single tweet.

The U.S. Republican presidential nominee posted a message on social media Saturday morning following the shooting death of Nykea Aldridge, the cousin of NBA star Dwyane Wade.

The initial tweet didn't offer condolences, instead focusing on his bid to win African-American voters in the Nov. 8 American election.

"Dwyane Wade's cousin was just shot and killed walking her baby in Chicago," he wrote after initially deleting the same tweet that misspelled Wade's first name as Dwayne and receiving backlash as a result. "Just what I have been saying. African-Americans will VOTE TRUMP!"

Aldridge, a mother of four, died Friday after being caught in cross-fire while pushing a baby stroller in Chicago's South Side near a school where she intended to register her children.

www.cbc.ca/news/arts/reaction-trump-tweet-dwyane-wade-1.3738424


An hour later....Oh yeah. "Thoughts and prayers."

[happyhoix]

Aug 27, 2016 15:58:14 GMT -5 weltschmerz said:

What a dick!

Donald Trump is once again igniting outrage with a single tweet.

The U.S. Republican presidential nominee posted a message on social media Saturday morning following the shooting death of Nykea Aldridge, the cousin of NBA star Dwyane Wade.

The initial tweet didn't offer condolences, instead focusing on his bid to win African-American voters in the Nov. 8 American election.

"Dwyane Wade's cousin was just shot and killed walking her baby in Chicago," he wrote after initially deleting the same tweet that misspelled Wade's first name as Dwayne and receiving backlash as a result. "Just what I have been saying. African-Americans will VOTE TRUMP!"

Aldridge, a mother of four, died Friday after being caught in cross-fire while pushing a baby stroller in Chicago's South Side near a school where she intended to register her children.

www.cbc.ca/news/arts/reaction-trump-tweet-dwyane-wade-1.3738424


An hour later....Oh yeah. "Thoughts and prayers."

How exactly will Donald 'fix' things so that no black people get shot by gang violence anymore?

Does he have a plan, or is he just flapping his mouth again?

[Tennesseer]

Aug 29, 2016 6:49:19 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

Aug 27, 2016 15:58:14 GMT -5 weltschmerz said:

What a dick!

Donald Trump is once again igniting outrage with a single tweet.

The U.S. Republican presidential nominee posted a message on social media Saturday morning following the shooting death of Nykea Aldridge, the cousin of NBA star Dwyane Wade.

The initial tweet didn't offer condolences, instead focusing on his bid to win African-American voters in the Nov. 8 American election.

"Dwyane Wade's cousin was just shot and killed walking her baby in Chicago," he wrote after initially deleting the same tweet that misspelled Wade's first name as Dwayne and receiving backlash as a result. "Just what I have been saying. African-Americans will VOTE TRUMP!"

Aldridge, a mother of four, died Friday after being caught in cross-fire while pushing a baby stroller in Chicago's South Side near a school where she intended to register her children.

www.cbc.ca/news/arts/reaction-trump-tweet-dwyane-wade-1.3738424


An hour later....Oh yeah. "Thoughts and prayers."

How exactly will Donald 'fix' things so that no black people get shot by gang violence anymore?

Does he have a plan, or is he just flapping his mouth again?

If he is faster than a speeding bullet, more powerful than a locomotive, and able to leap tall buildings in a single bound, Trump should have no problem ensuring no black people get shot by gang violence ever again.

[Opti]

Aug 29, 2016 6:49:19 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

Aug 27, 2016 15:58:14 GMT -5 weltschmerz said:

What a dick!

Donald Trump is once again igniting outrage with a single tweet.

The U.S. Republican presidential nominee posted a message on social media Saturday morning following the shooting death of Nykea Aldridge, the cousin of NBA star Dwyane Wade.

The initial tweet didn't offer condolences, instead focusing on his bid to win African-American voters in the Nov. 8 American election.

"Dwyane Wade's cousin was just shot and killed walking her baby in Chicago," he wrote after initially deleting the same tweet that misspelled Wade's first name as Dwayne and receiving backlash as a result. "Just what I have been saying. African-Americans will VOTE TRUMP!"

Aldridge, a mother of four, died Friday after being caught in cross-fire while pushing a baby stroller in Chicago's South Side near a school where she intended to register her children.

www.cbc.ca/news/arts/reaction-trump-tweet-dwyane-wade-1.3738424


An hour later....Oh yeah. "Thoughts and prayers."

How exactly will Donald 'fix' things so that no black people get shot by gang violence anymore?

Does he have a plan, or is he just flapping his mouth again?

I think he has little to no clue what influence the federal government can have and has had on law enforcement in all the states. That makes it easy for him to believe he can have a big impact versus the reality of the effect of what has gone before. One recent program allowed for police funding through grants. The maximum funded was 50 police officers. That's considerably under a 1% bump in most big city police departments.

Here's a 2010 grid of police officers to population in the 100 largest cities. Interesting to me, Washington D.C. is the highest by quite a bit.

www.governing.com/gov-data/safety-justice/law-enforcement-police-department-employee-totals-for-cities.html

One on federal grants for police also from 2010-

www.cnn.com/2010/US/09/30/cops.funding/

[spartan7886]

I doubt it accounts for 40% more than the next city, but I'm sure DC has a lot more officers on escort duty on any given day than anywhere else.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Wow! So much has happened. Donald Trump imploded, then he didn't implode (again). Then he totally flip flopped on immigration, except he really didn't, but maybe he did? Who knows- see you Wednesday on that one.  Hillary's health is a serious question-- Dr. Drew canned, HuffPo writer banned.  We have Latino & Hispanic anti-Hillary groups endorsing Trump and calling themselves "Operation Taco Bowl". Trump's got not quite double the black vote as Romney, and if he gets to 9% on election day the election is automatically over (I wonder how many people are aware of that? I posted it here several times) and Trump is still going hard after the black vote-- YUGE Labor Day African-American appeal by Trump coming to Detroit. And Democrats are scared out of their f'n minds-- as evidenced by-- well, there's a TON of evidence, but my personal favorite is Lying Crooked Hillary's latest paranoid delusion:

The Vast Alt-Right Conspiracy

Hillary Clinton actually claimed that there's a racist-nationalist movement that gets their marching orders from former KGB agent and Russian President, Vladimr Putin. And if you don't believe her- YOU are the conspiracy theorist.

Charlie Rose and WaPo writer Robert Costa (not to be confused with Bob Costas) worry aloud about the "Monster Vote"...

[djAdvocate]

"what's your best evidence that Trump may be able to pull that off" does not sound like worry to me.

you're reaching.

how have you been?

[tallguy]

Aug 29, 2016 14:53:03 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

"what's your best evidence that Trump may be able to pull that off" does not sound like worry to me.

you're reaching.

how have you been?

"Ah, but a man's reach should exceed his grasp -- or what's a heaven for?"



Reach for everything, grasp nothing?  What else is new?

[djAdvocate]

i am trying to not speculate too much.  i will just stick with the idea that Trump has about a 1/4 chance of winning- about the same chance that Clinton has of winning Montana. 

[happyhoix]

Aug 29, 2016 14:40:42 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Wow! So much has happened. Donald Trump imploded, then he didn't implode (again). Then he totally flip flopped on immigration, except he really didn't, but maybe he did? Who knows- see you Wednesday on that one.  Hillary's health is a serious question-- Dr. Drew canned, HuffPo writer banned.  We have Latino & Hispanic anti-Hillary groups endorsing Trump and calling themselves "Operation Taco Bowl". Trump's got not quite double the black vote as Romney, and if he gets to 9% on election day the election is automatically over (I wonder how many people are aware of that? I posted it here several times) and Trump is still going hard after the black vote-- YUGE Labor Day African-American appeal by Trump coming to Detroit. And Democrats are scared out of their f'n minds-- as evidenced by-- well, there's a TON of evidence, but my personal favorite is Lying Crooked Hillary's latest paranoid delusion:

The Vast Alt-Right Conspiracy

Hillary Clinton actually claimed that there's a racist-nationalist movement that gets their marching orders from former KGB agent and Russian President, Vladimr Putin. And if you don't believe her- YOU are the conspiracy theorist.

Charlie Rose and WaPo writer Robert Costa (not to be confused with Bob Costas) worry aloud about the "Monster Vote"...

Yeah I saw where his new campaign director was on TV saying that there is a huge number of college educated voters who tell the polling people that they aren't voting for Trump because it isn't 'cool' to say you're voting for Trump but how, when election day comes, all the college educated people are going to vote for Trump in the privacy of their voting booth. I guess part of what you call the 'monster vote.'

And it might be true. College educated people might be exactly like Junior High girls, worried what someone might think of them if they don't say they're voting for 'cool' Hillary Clinton. Just as horrible as showing up at school wearing last year's back pack!!!

Or - college educated MIGHT just be telling the truth when they tell the pollsters they aren't voting for Trump.

Election day is fast approaching, so we'll find out soon if the angst driven tween theory is right.

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Trump gets 9% of the African American vote and the election is over. It will not theoretically be over-- it will be over. It will be mathematically impossible at that point for Hillary to win. That's how precarious the Democrat's grip on power is. The Democratic party is a few percentage points in the African American community from being banished from winning national election ever again. That's why the frantic desperation to promote policies that make it easy to commit voter fraud, to flood the country with illegal aliens, and it fully explains Hillary's desperate paranoid delusional rant about the vast "alt right" conspiracy led by Putin. I mean-- really. This lady is winning on paper, but if you look at her actions-- she is running scared. What's the count? Are we at 270 days without a press conference yet?

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Aug 29, 2016 16:33:43 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

Aug 29, 2016 14:40:42 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Wow! So much has happened. Donald Trump imploded, then he didn't implode (again). Then he totally flip flopped on immigration, except he really didn't, but maybe he did? Who knows- see you Wednesday on that one.  Hillary's health is a serious question-- Dr. Drew canned, HuffPo writer banned.  We have Latino & Hispanic anti-Hillary groups endorsing Trump and calling themselves "Operation Taco Bowl". Trump's got not quite double the black vote as Romney, and if he gets to 9% on election day the election is automatically over (I wonder how many people are aware of that? I posted it here several times) and Trump is still going hard after the black vote-- YUGE Labor Day African-American appeal by Trump coming to Detroit. And Democrats are scared out of their f'n minds-- as evidenced by-- well, there's a TON of evidence, but my personal favorite is Lying Crooked Hillary's latest paranoid delusion:

The Vast Alt-Right Conspiracy

Hillary Clinton actually claimed that there's a racist-nationalist movement that gets their marching orders from former KGB agent and Russian President, Vladimr Putin. And if you don't believe her- YOU are the conspiracy theorist.

Charlie Rose and WaPo writer Robert Costa (not to be confused with Bob Costas) worry aloud about the "Monster Vote"...

Yeah I saw where his new campaign director was on TV saying that there is a huge number of college educated voters who tell the polling people that they aren't voting for Trump because it isn't 'cool' to say you're voting for Trump but how, when election day comes, all the college educated people are going to vote for Trump in the privacy of their voting booth. I guess part of what you call the 'monster vote.'

And it might be true. College educated people might be exactly like Junior High girls, worried what someone might think of them if they don't say they're voting for 'cool' Hillary Clinton. Just as horrible as showing up at school wearing last year's back pack!!!

Or - college educated MIGHT just be telling the truth when they tell the pollsters they aren't voting for Trump.

Election day is fast approaching, so we'll find out soon if the angst driven tween theory is right.

This is not without precedent. It even has a name.

"The Bradley Effect"

[AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP]

Bottom line for me is that Trump isn't Romney.

I am not worried at all about Hillary Clinton becoming President.

The wave that's coming is large enough that a conservative estimate puts Trump's vote total roughly 5 million-ish more than Barack Obama's high water mark in 2008.

[happyhoix]

Aug 29, 2016 16:48:53 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Bottom line for me is that Trump isn't Romney.

I am not worried at all about Hillary Clinton becoming President.

The wave that's coming is large enough that a conservative estimate puts Trump's vote total roughly 5 million-ish more than Barack Obama's high water mark in 2008.

When you say 'conservative estimate' you mean an estimate made by a far right, conservative wing media outlet like Rush Limbaugh, right?

Cause no one else is estimating that.

[djAdvocate]

Aug 29, 2016 16:42:41 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Trump gets 9% of the African American vote and the election is over. It will not theoretically be over-- it will be over. It will be mathematically impossible at that point for Hillary to win.

that's absurd.  you know that, right?

edit: just to be clear, i don't think that Clinton will get 91% of the black vote.  i doubt she will get 89% of it, frankly.  and i bet she still wins.

[happyhoix]

Aug 29, 2016 16:46:34 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

Aug 29, 2016 16:33:43 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

Yeah I saw where his new campaign director was on TV saying that there is a huge number of college educated voters who tell the polling people that they aren't voting for Trump because it isn't 'cool' to say you're voting for Trump but how, when election day comes, all the college educated people are going to vote for Trump in the privacy of their voting booth. I guess part of what you call the 'monster vote.'

And it might be true. College educated people might be exactly like Junior High girls, worried what someone might think of them if they don't say they're voting for 'cool' Hillary Clinton. Just as horrible as showing up at school wearing last year's back pack!!!

Or - college educated MIGHT just be telling the truth when they tell the pollsters they aren't voting for Trump.

Election day is fast approaching, so we'll find out soon if the angst driven tween theory is right.

This is not without precedent. It even has a name.

"The Bradley Effect"

Reverse Bradley effect is not likely.

1) People don't have a problem saying they don't like Hillary. About 51% of the country says they don't like her already. So people are not likely to claim they will vote for Hillary and then vote for Trump instead, just because voting for Hillary is 'cool.'   It isn't cool at all. If she wasn't running against Trump, hardly anyone would be voting for her.

2) Trump has a better shot at the large number of voters who still are undecided. If every undecided voter ended up voting for Trump, he might win. But odds are, the undecided will probably split 50/50, or just not vote at all. Chances of every undecided voter voting for Trump are very slim to none.

[djAdvocate]

Aug 29, 2016 17:06:59 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

Aug 29, 2016 16:46:34 GMT -5 AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP said:

This is not without precedent. It even has a name.

"The Bradley Effect"

Reverse Bradley effect is not likely.

1) People don't have a problem saying they don't like Hillary. About 51% of the country says they don't like her already. So people are not likely to claim they will vote for Hillary and then vote for Trump instead, just because voting for Hillary is 'cool.'   It isn't cool at all. If she wasn't running against Trump, hardly anyone would be voting for her.

2) Trump has a better shot at the large number of voters who still are undecided. If every undecided voter ended up voting for Trump, he might win. But odds are, the undecided will probably split 50/50, or just not vote at all. Chances of every undecided voter voting for Trump are very slim to none.

the whole wave prediction is based on a faulty assumption- that the primary turnout has any relationship to the GE turnout.

it doesn't.

[happyhoix]

Aug 29, 2016 17:01:23 GMT -5 alwaysbeoptimizing said:

Aug 29, 2016 16:33:43 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

Yeah I saw where his new campaign director was on TV saying that there is a huge number of college educated voters who tell the polling people that they aren't voting for Trump because it isn't 'cool' to say you're voting for Trump but how, when election day comes, all the college educated people are going to vote for Trump in the privacy of their voting booth. I guess part of what you call the 'monster vote.'

And it might be true. College educated people might be exactly like Junior High girls, worried what someone might think of them if they don't say they're voting for 'cool' Hillary Clinton. Just as horrible as showing up at school wearing last year's back pack!!!

Or - college educated MIGHT just be telling the truth when they tell the pollsters they aren't voting for Trump.

Election day is fast approaching, so we'll find out soon if the angst driven tween theory is right.

it can be career and social suicide to not toe the party line the progressivism is good in all ways and of course, only democrats (or socialists) should be elected.  Living in the south, you probably see it the other way and feel "conservative oppression", but up here in WA, it's the other way around.

I've seen it happen plenty of times.

Even Scott Adams of dilbert fame basically says he has to claim to support Hillary Clinton or be ostracized.

Why would that apply when you're talking to an online pollster, unless you believe your phone is bugged and your answers are being broadcast on twitter?

Your argument might hold water when you're out in public talking to friend/neighbors/coworkers, but on the phone to some anonymous drone who doesn't know you from Adam? Not buying it.

I once had a pollster call me when I was vacationing in Florida. I told them I wasn't a Florida voter and they wanted my responses anyway. So I made up some creative responses, just for fun. That's how serious most people take pollsters.

[djAdvocate]

Aug 29, 2016 17:10:48 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

Aug 29, 2016 17:01:23 GMT -5 alwaysbeoptimizing said:

it can be career and social suicide to not toe the party line the progressivism is good in all ways and of course, only democrats (or socialists) should be elected.  Living in the south, you probably see it the other way and feel "conservative oppression", but up here in WA, it's the other way around.

I've seen it happen plenty of times.

Even Scott Adams of dilbert fame basically says he has to claim to support Hillary Clinton or be ostracized.

Why would that apply when you're talking to an online pollster, unless you believe your phone is bugged and your answers are being broadcast on twitter?

Your argument might hold water when you're out in public talking to friend/neighbors/coworkers, but on the phone to some anonymous drone who doesn't know you from Adam? Not buying it.

I once had a pollster call me when I was vacationing in Florida. I told them I wasn't a Florida voter and they wanted my responses anyway. So I made up some creative responses, just for fun. That's how serious most people take pollsters.

that's a shame, but it doesn't change the fact that about 80% of polls fall within MOE.

[tallguy]

I am not worried at all about Hillary Clinton becoming President.

Neither am I.  The vast majority of us will be just fine.  Just like we have been the last eight years.  Now if it were Trump, then yes, I would be very worried.

[happyhoix]

Aug 29, 2016 17:21:56 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Aug 29, 2016 17:10:48 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

Why would that apply when you're talking to an online pollster, unless you believe your phone is bugged and your answers are being broadcast on twitter?

Your argument might hold water when you're out in public talking to friend/neighbors/coworkers, but on the phone to some anonymous drone who doesn't know you from Adam? Not buying it.

I once had a pollster call me when I was vacationing in Florida. I told them I wasn't a Florida voter and they wanted my responses anyway. So I made up some creative responses, just for fun. That's how serious most people take pollsters.

your made up answers are part of polling error.  that is why polls can show that Trump is +14% in NH. 

I know. I sometimes like to cause trouble, and there's only so much trouble middle aged broads can cause without getting arrested. 

[Pants]

Aug 29, 2016 17:01:23 GMT -5 alwaysbeoptimizing said:

Aug 29, 2016 16:33:43 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

Yeah I saw where his new campaign director was on TV saying that there is a huge number of college educated voters who tell the polling people that they aren't voting for Trump because it isn't 'cool' to say you're voting for Trump but how, when election day comes, all the college educated people are going to vote for Trump in the privacy of their voting booth. I guess part of what you call the 'monster vote.'

And it might be true. College educated people might be exactly like Junior High girls, worried what someone might think of them if they don't say they're voting for 'cool' Hillary Clinton. Just as horrible as showing up at school wearing last year's back pack!!!

Or - college educated MIGHT just be telling the truth when they tell the pollsters they aren't voting for Trump.

Election day is fast approaching, so we'll find out soon if the angst driven tween theory is right.

it can be career and social suicide to not toe the party line the progressivism is good in all ways and of course, only democrats (or socialists) should be elected.  Living in the south, you probably see it the other way and feel "conservative oppression", but up here in WA, it's the other way around.

I've seen it happen plenty of times.

Even Scott Adams of dilbert fame basically says he has to claim to support Hillary Clinton or be ostracized.

Scott Adams is a Men's Rights Activist and someone who for years pretended to be his own biggest fan on Twitter. So consider the source.

[djAdvocate]

Aug 29, 2016 17:32:31 GMT -5 Pants said:

Aug 29, 2016 17:01:23 GMT -5 alwaysbeoptimizing said:

it can be career and social suicide to not toe the party line the progressivism is good in all ways and of course, only democrats (or socialists) should be elected.  Living in the south, you probably see it the other way and feel "conservative oppression", but up here in WA, it's the other way around.

I've seen it happen plenty of times.

Even Scott Adams of dilbert fame basically says he has to claim to support Hillary Clinton or be ostracized.

Scott Adams is a Men's Rights Activist and someone who for years pretended to be his own biggest fan on Twitter. So consider the source.

slim pickings means that they have to trot out anyone that has a voice.

[Deleted]

Aug 29, 2016 15:08:03 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i am trying to not speculate too much.  i will just stick with the idea that Trump has about a 1/4 chance of winning- about the same chance that Clinton has of winning Montana. 

Trump is about the same odds now as Obama was at the same time in 2008. Who won 2008 again?

[djAdvocate]

Aug 29, 2016 20:39:21 GMT -5 @richardintn said:

Aug 29, 2016 15:08:03 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i am trying to not speculate too much.  i will just stick with the idea that Trump has about a 1/4 chance of winning- about the same chance that Clinton has of winning Montana. 

Trump is about the same odds now as Obama was at the same time in 2008. Who won 2008 again?

you really should fact check your stuff before you post it:

www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

[Opti]

Aug 29, 2016 20:39:21 GMT -5 @richardintn said:

Aug 29, 2016 15:08:03 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

i am trying to not speculate too much.  i will just stick with the idea that Trump has about a 1/4 chance of winning- about the same chance that Clinton has of winning Montana. 

Trump is about the same odds now as Obama was at the same time in 2008. Who won 2008 again?

Are you sure they are similar?

Here's a wiki page with polls from 2008. I see one from Gallup in late August with likely voters going for McCain and some more for McCain in early Sept.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for_the_United_States_presidential_election,_2008

[tallguy]

Had you covered, dj.  I was coming back to post that same link.