Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Jul 12, 2015 15:08:51 GMT -5
Correlation doesn't care. Firstly, race happens to be one of the easiest data to associate with a loan applicant, and if there's a meaningful difference between the parameters of the two groups (black vs. non-black), race very naturally becomes a discriminant for risk. After the experience of a long career, a loan officer may have accrued 'flags' in his/her mind: "Always double-check people wearing mismatched socks, people that can't stop fidgeting, and young black men, because these groups have proven to be a huge lending risk." ... A person wears mismatched socks due to personal inattention to detail. Even a person who is colorblind can develop strategies to ensure they do not wear mismatched stocks. Fidgeting is a little tricky because it might be a neurological problem. Other than that, an individual can work to overcome that nervous habit. Nothing a person born black can do to change that. For that reason, a professional should not act in a way that red flag might indicate they should (i.e., treat the applicant differently based solely on skin color). That's not the point of the analogy. The loan officer is facing a classic type-I/type-II error dilemma. A customer applies for a loan. Of critical importance to the loan officer is the probability of default. The officer is able to measure some independent variable, R, and observes that the probability of default is strongly correlated with R. The source of this correlation is unknown and ultimately irrelevant. The officer is now faced with a choice. He/she can either: - exploit the correlation by adapting his/her operating standards, sacrificing equitable customer treatment for greater loan efficiency
- ignore the correlation, sacrificing efficiency for more equitable customer treatment
In the case of (i), the loan officer is electing to use R as a risk discriminant. (S)he rejects a greater percentage of loans with greater R-conditional risk, and in so doing reduces his/her uptake of nonperforming loans. The downside is that unless the correlation is perfect, there will necessarily exist R-contraindicated loan applicants erroneously rejected as default risks. In technical terms, (i) is a choice to reduce type-II error (falsely deeming a deadbeat loan applicant to be a worthy credit risk) at the expense of increasing type-I error (falsely rejecting a worthy loan applicant as an unfit credit risk). Option (ii) is the opposite of this. The loan officer is purposefully ignoring a risk discriminant that would reduce his/her type-II error, deeming it more important to keep type-I error as low as possible. There is no one-size-fits-all solution to this dilemma, especially if R is highly correlated with risk of default. Type-II error is a liability for the loan officer, a disservice to the customer (loaning money to an unworthy debtor is no favour to the debtor), and may even determine whether a bank can remain profitable. Type-I error is stigmatizing, a disservice to the customer, and is precisely the kind of "institutional racism" that Mr. Metta is talking about. As far as I'm concerned, anyone who says "type-I error is all that matters" is a whistling dixie unless they have some kind of skin in the game. Anyone who says "type-II error is all that matters, even if R is a poor risk discriminant" is shortsighted, because having faith in our fellow human beings, even at the expense of a modest penalty to loan efficiency, might well prove to bring about far greater social and institutional benefits in future. Whether R is race, age, untied shoes, shifty eyes, or whatever may matter in the eyes of the law, but it doesn't make one whit of difference to the type-I/type-II error trade-off just described.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2015 15:37:23 GMT -5
Virgil Showlion you have quickly gone from " maybe black borrowers default on loans more often" to "black borrowers do default on loans more often". And you are doing it with no evidence. Where is your innocent until proven guilty philosophy I see in other threads around this?
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Jul 12, 2015 15:45:20 GMT -5
Virgil Showlion you have quickly gone from " maybe black borrowers default on loans more often" to "black borrowers do default on loans more often". And you are doing it with no evidence. Where is your innocent until proven guilty philosophy I see in other threads around this? I haven't stated anything definite about the correlation. Everything thus far has been stated in the hypothetical. If you disagree, you'll have to give me an exact quote to work with.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Jul 12, 2015 16:06:36 GMT -5
A person wears mismatched socks due to personal inattention to detail. Even a person who is colorblind can develop strategies to ensure they do not wear mismatched stocks. Fidgeting is a little tricky because it might be a neurological problem. Other than that, an individual can work to overcome that nervous habit. Nothing a person born black can do to change that. For that reason, a professional should not act in a way that red flag might indicate they should (i.e., treat the applicant differently based solely on skin color). That's not the point of the analogy. The loan officer is facing a classic type-I/type-II error dilemma. A customer applies for a loan. Of critical importance to the loan officer is the probability of default. The officer is able to measure some independent variable, R, and observes that the probability of default is strongly correlated with R. The source of this correlation is unknown and ultimately irrelevant. The officer is now faced with a choice. He/she can either: - exploit the correlation by adapting his/her operating standards, sacrificing equitable customer treatment for greater loan efficiency
- ignore the correlation, sacrificing efficiency for more equitable customer treatment
Here is the start of the conversation: The show spoke of a study that had rampant soft racism against blacks when they applied for loans, nothing huge, but tougher questions and less friendly loan officers. Which obviously indicates a problem. The question is: can we isolate the specific cause of the problem? Are the tellers giving black customers the gears because they innately don't like blacks, or do black customers have an appreciably higher rate of missing payments and defaulting on loans? I don't know either way, but did the study even look into that question? So we are asking loan officers to be equally friendly and equitably question applicants taking into account economic factors and ignoring skin color. It seems that the loan officer would be more efficient not wasting time asking extra questions of obviously qualified applicants who happen to be black.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 12, 2015 17:09:47 GMT -5
Sounds like a great way to promote racism and more separation. When people start using strong arm tactics to promote and "us vs them" mentality, it usually doesn't seem to end well. maybe that is because you are white and don't want them to have more of the economic pie? Idk. I think acting from power is better then wanting the law to change people's behavior. even if that behavior does material harm to the persons and property of non-consenting others?
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2015 17:23:46 GMT -5
Virgil Showlion you have quickly gone from " maybe black borrowers default on loans more often" to "black borrowers do default on loans more often". And you are doing it with no evidence. Where is your innocent until proven guilty philosophy I see in other threads around this? google something about "default, black white". Before you do it though, guess which race defaults more often. You don't have to tell anyone your guess, but just guess with the hope you will be right. Anyone who does this and is pretty sure they are right, have prejudged blacks, maybe on some other metric then skin color. For instance blacks are usually lower income then whites, etc, but still people who have a good idea of the answer before looking are doing something that involves racism to some extent. or is that not right?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 12, 2015 17:38:44 GMT -5
Virgil Showlion you have quickly gone from " maybe black borrowers default on loans more often" to "black borrowers do default on loans more often". And you are doing it with no evidence. Where is your innocent until proven guilty philosophy I see in other threads around this? google something about "default, black white". Before you do it though, guess which race defaults more often. You don't have to tell anyone your guess, but just guess with the hope you will be right. Anyone who does this and is pretty sure they are right, have prejudged blacks, maybe on some other metric then skin color. For instance blacks are usually lower income then whites, etc, but still people who have a good idea of the answer before looking are doing something that involves racism to some extent. or is that not right? i guessed white, because more whites apply for loans in the first place. how is that racist?
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2015 18:26:59 GMT -5
Virgil Showlion you have quickly gone from " maybe black borrowers default on loans more often" to "black borrowers do default on loans more often". And you are doing it with no evidence. Where is your innocent until proven guilty philosophy I see in other threads around this? I haven't stated anything definite about the correlation. Everything thus far has been stated in the hypothetical. If you disagree, you'll have to give me an exact quote to work with. No you haven't but you have made a very detailed argument for why denying black people loans is not a racist act. You have maintained your deniability but the message you are sending is that black people are denied loans because they default more. You do this without even bothering to find out if they default more or not. Not only not bothering, making the point that you haven't bothered. But you argue the point anyway. You almost always do the research when you are arguing a point. Why not this time?
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Phoenix84
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Post by Phoenix84 on Jul 12, 2015 18:51:10 GMT -5
I find it ironic (although there may be some truth to it) that the author seems to believe that part of the problem is too many people are concerned with white people's feelings being too fragile when discussing racism, while completely ignoring the reality that white people often need to be concerned about avoiding even the perception of saying something that might somehow be considered offensive in some way. Maybe the same issues that the author views when trying to discuss racism with a white person is the exact same issues as a white person trying to discuss his or her view with a non-white person...maybe both are trying to avoid offending each other, while also wanting to avoid being called racist or "angry." This is a good point. "Not wanting to hurt feelings" goes both ways. Can white people really talk about race without upsetting blacks? Is our hyper sensative culture really ready for that. Is it just going to breed more resentment? Since race has become such a minefield, many whites are afraid to discuss it for fear of offending others, or worse, having their comments Miss characterized and called racist.
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Post by frankq on Jul 12, 2015 19:19:31 GMT -5
We elected a black president with 50% of the white vote and 95% of the black vote. Who's racist? If your concerned about how much black lives matter, then maybe come up with a way to reduce black on black crime. Try looking at crime stats according to race as well. I'm sick and tired of people trying to make us out to be the bad guys because we're white. Whatever your color, stop committing crimes and you'll be surprised how easy it will be to get along, especially with cops.
All this chatter from many white people about blacks killing blacks and what is America going to do about it. But few words about the problem of whites killing whites from those same white people as if it doesn't happen. Why is that?
Sure it happens. Does it happen at the same rate? No, but it happens. Funny, I don't hear anyone talking about the black guy who took 18 hours to torture and kill 4 whites in Washington, and took a pizza break in between. Where are the protestors? Where is the press? I guess black lives matter more than white lives as far as the media is concerned.
I hear it time and time again about blacks killing blacks and how they are killers and thugs. But rarely ever are whites killing whites classified as killers and thugs, especially when it involves mass murders.
Mass murderers are animals no matter what color they are. Don't like the term "thug"? Don't act like one. Everyone wants to have their own "culture", language, etc. 20 years ago Jesse Jackson was actually pushing for Ebonics to be used in schools with regard to blacks. Really? Everything we do in this country is in at least 2 languages. The Home Depot near me has a sign that brags how they can communicate in 6 languages. WTF? Assimilate and we'll all get along much better. Be a fkn American, not a black, Mexican, Russian, Italian, whatever. Life not going your way? Quit bitching and get busy. One of the reasons given for the high crime rates in black neighborhoods was that black teens had nothing to do after school. Here's and idea....try doing homework!
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Jul 12, 2015 19:31:18 GMT -5
95% of blacks didn't all vote for Obama because he's black. They voted for Obama because he's a democrat. Since 1964, blacks have identified themselves as democrats. In 1964, Lyndon Johnson got 94% of the black vote. Blacks and the Democratic Party
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 12, 2015 19:39:25 GMT -5
95% of blacks didn't all vote for Obama because he's black. They voted for Obama because he's a democrat. Since 1964, blacks have identified themselves as democrats. In 1964, Lyndon Johnson got 94% of the black vote. Blacks and the Democratic Party there is a very important lesson in the 1964 election for Republicans. i doubt most alive today know it.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2015 20:07:36 GMT -5
95% of blacks didn't all vote for Obama because he's black. They voted for Obama because he's a democrat. Since 1964, blacks have identified themselves as democrats. In 1964, Lyndon Johnson got 94% of the black vote. Blacks and the Democratic Party there is a very important lesson in the 1964 election for Republicans. i doubt most alive today know it. You can't do that! What is it?
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Post by Value Buy on Jul 12, 2015 20:29:30 GMT -5
there is a very important lesson in the 1964 election for Republicans. i doubt most alive today know it. You can't do that! What is it? dj is forgetting one advertisement that also elected Johnson. It showed a young blonde white child being killed in an atomic explosion due to the insinuation Barry Goldwater would use the hydrogen bomb, and create an atomic war if elected.
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Post by Value Buy on Jul 12, 2015 21:01:20 GMT -5
Back to the subject. Spent the weekend camping. Most lots in our campground are owned rather than rented. In our section of the campground, we have four black families out of about 140 sites in our section. I know campgrounds may not be a normal social/economic group that represents all segments of the American culture, etc, so do not really know this is a good place to discuss it. We have had a black family three lots down from us for years, and we know each other's family members by name, talk together, have shared picnics occasionally and so on. I would not say we are close, other than we are camping neighbors. Actually their family is there probably only one weekend a month, so hard to keep up with, as every week campers wind up in their own cliques over time. I only bring this up for anadotal reference. I printed out the original message with some of the responses to take to camp to give the couple. They have three chlldren every week also, but we are now just a couple, so we lack that family familiarity. I felt we knew them well enough to discuss this issue, although we had not discussed racial issues with them over the four years we have known them. Saturday evening was raining so everyone was pretty well hunkered down over covered fire pits or covered decks. so I asked if we could discuss this issue. They asked why would I bring it up at a campground. I explained my complentation with this issue and wanted a black point of view. We also said please take the evening to read it at your pleasure, and if they wanted to discuss it Sunday morning we could. If not, no problem.
Still drizzling this morning, and the couple came over on the deck to talk.
Basically they said they did feel similar thoughts as of the op, but did not want to go into detail just yet. They are concerned it might upset the dynamics of the immediate campground group we all associate with. They said not all our white neighbors are as friendly as we might think. I was told, to probably let it sit a week or two, and they might be welling to discuss the issue, but not openly within the campground, and please not to mention it to anyone in our immediate area as it might upset the neighborhood.
Here was the ignorant me. I had no idea that it might upset the dynamics of the campground. After all we all have at least the campground in common, but t looks like race still pops it's ugly head.
I guess race discussion should not be out in the open at a campground with blacks. Thinking about it tonight, maybe, sadly, they are correct.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Jul 12, 2015 21:08:36 GMT -5
VB-why on earth would you ask these fellow campers. You really hsrdly know them beyond the fact you are casually friendly with them in a campground. It is a very personal subject. You put them in a spot where they clearly did not want to clearly be.
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zibazinski
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Post by zibazinski on Jul 12, 2015 21:12:05 GMT -5
Maybe they just wanted to be people that camp? Not black people that camp.
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Post by Value Buy on Jul 12, 2015 21:14:30 GMT -5
VB-why on earth would you ask these fellow campers. You really hsrdly know them beyond the fact you are casually friendly with them in a campground. It is a very personal subject. You put them in a spot where they clearly did not want to clearly be. Yes, probably correct. I gave the shortened version with the highlights. The discussion has to start somewhere. Probably is a mistake. I did say on this board I was going to make an effort to understand this issue.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 12, 2015 21:21:54 GMT -5
VB-why on earth would you ask these fellow campers. You really hsrdly know them beyond the fact you are casually friendly with them in a campground. It is a very personal subject. You put them in a spot where they clearly did not want to clearly be. Yes, probably correct. I gave the shortened version with the highlights. The discussion has to start somewhere. Probably is a mistake. I did say on this board I was going to make an effort to understand this issue. If you want to learn something a good place to start is with people who know what you want to learn. Good for you for wanting to learn this and not just spout unfounded conjecture.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Jul 12, 2015 21:28:19 GMT -5
VB-why on earth would you ask these fellow campers. You really hsrdly know them beyond the fact you are casually friendly with them in a campground. It is a very personal subject. You put them in a spot where they clearly did not want to clearly be. Yes, probably correct. I gave the shortened version with the highlights. The discussion has to start somewhere. Probably is a mistake. I did say on this board I was going to make an effort to understand this issue. The discussion most definately does not need to start in a campground where folks go to get away from society for a period of time. The most serious conversation and debate that should be held in a campground with people you really don't know is 'What is the best tasting hot dog to cook over an open fire. Discuss.' I would not be surprised if at best, these folks say nothing else to you in the future other than 'Hello'. At worst, they move their camping spot or never go there again to avoid running into you. Wrong place-wrong time-wrong prople to raise the subject.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 12, 2015 22:58:02 GMT -5
You can't do that! What is it? dj is forgetting one advertisement that also elected Johnson. It showed a young blonde white child being killed in an atomic explosion due to the insinuation Barry Goldwater would use the hydrogen bomb, and create an atomic war if elected. my point had nothing to do with Johnson.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jul 12, 2015 22:59:35 GMT -5
there is a very important lesson in the 1964 election for Republicans. i doubt most alive today know it. You can't do that! What is it? if you get behind far reaching liberal legislation all the way to the top of your party, you will win liberals for generations. the same, of course, goes for conservatives. it is just a matter of who you want to hitch your wagon to.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Jul 13, 2015 0:02:07 GMT -5
... It seems that the loan officer would be more efficient not wasting time asking extra questions of obviously qualified applicants who happen to be black. If that's actually what's happening. We don't know. Unless loan officers are hunting for arbitrary (i.e. unrelated to risk) excuses not to loan to blacks, I suspect they're not in the habit of asking questions that don't avail any useful information vis a vis default risk. They're able to discern something through extended inquiry. Or maybe you're right and it is useless. As for "efficiency", I'm referring purely to loan performance. An officer who can put through 20 loans in a week, one of which turns out to be nonperforming, is far greater asset to the bank than an officer who can put through 30 loans in a week, 2 of which are nonperforming. ... Not only not bothering, making the point that you haven't bothered. But you argue the point anyway. You almost always do the research when you are arguing a point. Why not this time? Because my argument is hypothetical and I don't really give a toot. However, so as not to mar my studious reputation, I did look into it and found this article, which is behind an academic paywall. I excerpted the relevant finding: It's not an entirely accurate reflection of e.g. bank loans, however, since the rates include delinquency on payday loans, quick money loans, etc., and there are significant differences in how people of different ethnicity borrow money. On the other side of the equation, it could be argued that the disparity in rates is artificially low due to loan officers filtering out "undesirables", which was essentially what hickle's study was alleging. Hence take the data with a grain of salt.
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Post by zibazinski on Jul 13, 2015 9:03:21 GMT -5
But then again, I could be wrong. I was certainly wrong about Clara. We have some posters that identify as being black, how do they feel? Do they want to be identified as black first then as people?
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Post by Value Buy on Jul 13, 2015 11:04:39 GMT -5
Yes, probably correct. I gave the shortened version with the highlights. The discussion has to start somewhere. Probably is a mistake. I did say on this board I was going to make an effort to understand this issue. The discussion most definately does not need to start in a campground where folks go to get away from society for a period of time. The most serious conversation and debate that should be held in a campground with people you really don't know is 'What is the best tasting hot dog to cook over an open fire. Discuss.' I would not be surprised if at best, these folks say nothing else to you in the future other than 'Hello'. At worst, they move their camping spot or never go there again to avoid running into you. Wrong place-wrong time-wrong prople to raise the subject. Evidently you do not go camping a lot. This is not a campground out in the boonies (other than being in the great state of Indiana) where you go to get away from it all, unless it is from relatives like thw Haitian has.
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Post by Value Buy on Jul 13, 2015 11:09:40 GMT -5
"wrong place-wrong time-wrong people to raise the subject"
Where is the correct time, place and people to discuss an issue of race? It was the premise of the original op, that we, white people do not understand. How are we to understand if we do not ask?
I know you were a former HR person, who probably does know better, but I was not.
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Post by Tennesseer on Jul 13, 2015 11:20:33 GMT -5
The discussion most definately does not need to start in a campground where folks go to get away from society for a period of time. The most serious conversation and debate that should be held in a campground with people you really don't know is 'What is the best tasting hot dog to cook over an open fire. Discuss.' I would not be surprised if at best, these folks say nothing else to you in the future other than 'Hello'. At worst, they move their camping spot or never go there again to avoid running into you. Wrong place-wrong time-wrong prople to raise the subject. Evidently you do not go camping a lot. This is not a campground out in the boonies (other than being in the great state of Indiana) where you go to get away from it all, unless it is from relatives like thw Haitian has. Evidently you do not know tact, timing, and common sense in front of people you don't really know.
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Post by whoisjohngalt on Jul 13, 2015 11:46:04 GMT -5
For some reason this just popped into my head.....Remember the movie "White men can't jump".....now imagine a movie "Black men can't ...."
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Jul 13, 2015 11:50:42 GMT -5
"wrong place-wrong time-wrong people to raise the subject" Where is the correct time, place and people to discuss an issue of race? It was the premise of the original op, that we, white people do not understand. How are we to understand if we do not ask? I know you were a former HR person, who probably does know better, but I was not. Instead of putting individuals on the spot and in awkward positions, why don;t you try and organize a discussion in your town and have it take place on neutral ground. If any interest is garnered, then in your advertising for this discussion, make note of the document you would like everyone to read beforehand (provide Internet information to download article) so everyone understands what is to be discussed during the session. Make sure you are up front on why you wish to have this discussion in your advertisement. It is you who wants to learn. So it is you who must put your cards on the table first. Don't expect black attendees to go first. They have no idea if your wish for a discussion is genuine or for some other reason which could be negative. Remember-none of these people know you. Probably best to find someone who knows how to facilitate this particular subject and type of discussion. I would not recommend you do it. You will also need an equal amount of black and white people at this discussion for it to be meaningful. A room full of mostly white people and few black people (if any) is not going to go anywhere. You will have to make sure that all black and white attendees have good intentions in attending such an event. Failure to make that known ahead of time will doom any attempt at reconciling differences. How you go about ensuring the good intentions of all involved will rest upon your shoulders. You are the one who wants to learn.
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Post by MJ2.0 on Jul 13, 2015 11:54:44 GMT -5
But then again, I could be wrong. I was certainly wrong about Clara. We have some posters that identify as being black, how do they feel? Do they want to be identified as black first then as people? People, because I assume that's how we'd all like to be identified. And not people FIRST, just people. Please and thank you.
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