What Do You Do when you buy a growth stock to be one of your

[tyfighter3]

Core holdings and something happens in the Market to make your newly bought stock go down 20 to 30%? Do you panic and sell it for a loss. Did you do your DD before you bought it? Does the stock have eranings and good fundalmentals? I mean there are Growth stocke and then there are growth stocks. Tell me what you would do in this situation and how you would get out of it. Then I will go over with you and show you How I do it. Class is in. No Options required.

[tyfighter3]

AHB, will you pin this Thread.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Lol.. Class is in, love it! It's fine with me if it's pinned. Virgil will have to pin it though, I'm just a lowly poster just like you here Ty.

If it's me, and I like the company, sounds like it's time add a bit more.. What you say?

[tyfighter3]

Lets say you want your core holding of XYZ at a 1000 shares and really don't want to add to it but don"t like losing 20 to 30% of your money in it and it looks like it might take it a few months now to regain it's current price back. What do you do?

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Lol, I will get back to ya on that sir. I had to stay home from ball tonight because the three yr old was out of control all day, I'm done. I'm so happy I get to go to work tomorrow!

[tyfighter3]

LOL, I know it's not nice to think too much after a day with a 3 year old. Put some thought into it and maybe some other people will join in. Nothing is a sure thing when it comes to the Market but there are somethings a person can do to make there odds better.

[mmhmm]

I've pinned the thread for you, tyfighter3.

[Deleted]

ok....i will play


well, if i bought a growth stock, and a few months later the stock dropped 20-30%, i would make the following assessment

1. is the reason i BOUGHT the stock in the first place still valid?    yes or no...pretty simple


2. Has anything major changed at the company? (management, accidents, bad press, etc) think BP accident, or CEO resigning


3. Does the company still have a upward trend on revenue and are the products still selling? again, yes or no


As long as those three issues are fine.....i may not just keep the stock. I may add to my original number of shares, and lower my overall cost per share

But.....and this is a huge issue.....i am a LONG TERM holder of companies......with 8-12 years horizons and beyond

I buy good quality, mostly dividend paying companies, that have decent growth

And unless something happens....i usually keep and add to my shares

[tyfighter3]

gdgyva, your 1 2 3 is right on and everybody should do those things when you purchase a stock or revalue it. I know that you are a long term holder and I'm not trying to change anybodys way of trading or buying stocks. This is just going to be a fun exercise with different ideas of futility or not. LOL
This exercise will be on any growth stock a person would hold 1 to 5 years.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

May 13, 2014 0:16:29 GMT -5 tyfighter3 said:

Lets say you want your core holding of XYZ at a 1000 shares and really don't want to add to it but don"t like losing 20 to 30% of your money in it and it looks like it might take it a few months now to regain it's current price back. What do you do?

I think gd makes good points. If all three of the points he listed were still valid, I guess you could sell the stock and either wait out the rest of the correction, or just turn around and buy again. It wouldn't show a loss anymore, and would make you more likely to hold onto it?

[tyfighter3]

AHB, if you sold your stock at the lower amount and then bought it back, you would have still lost 20 to 30% of your money and still took that 3 to 4 months to gain it back. This exercise will help to keep your 20 to 30% and still reduce your cost per share and you would still have your core amout of shares intact at a lower cost.

[bimetalaupt]

May 14, 2014 0:46:31 GMT -5 tyfighter3 said:

AHB, if you sold your stock at the lower amount and then bought it back, you would have still lost 20 to 30% of your money and still took that 3 to 4 months to gain it back. This exercise will help to keep your 20 to 30% and still reduce your cost per share and you would still have your core amout of shares intact at a lower cost.

There are two major questions to ask yourself.

1: What is the SD of this stock? Did the stock violate the lower level or did you just buy at the upper SD line?

2: does the stock have a potential market share large enough to pay you a return?  Is it like FB and MCK:  Just running on Momentum. 

I can not make the DCF system work for either of these two. (Expert50/50)

Just a thought,

BiMetalAuPt

[tyfighter3]

It would have to be a stock that makes money and growing, does not pay a dividend yet and yes you got excited and bought at the high end but the fundalmentals are still intact.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I have no idea what you're getting at Ty.

[tyfighter3]

And yes, we will be taking out all emotions in doing this excercise that put you here in the first place. lol

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Nice, I like logic.

[bimetalaupt]

May 14, 2014 11:38:02 GMT -5 tyfighter3 said:

It would have to be a stock that makes money and growing, does not pay a dividend yet and yes you got excited and bought at the high end but the fundalmentals are still intact.

Ty,

Discounted cash flow models use EBITDA rather then net earning availed(AVI) to common shares.  MANY FAST GROWING FIRMS SHOW A LOSS(AVI) DURING THE BUILD OUT PHASE OF GROWTH.  ISV DEFINES FUTURE BEST (IMHO).

 IT IS NICE TO PAY 50% OF Intrinsic Stock Value(ISV). 

Just a thought,

BiMetalAuPt

[tyfighter3]

Bruce, most Analyst use EBITDA to see what there is left to pay the rest of the interest, taxes , ect.of a company. BUT we haven't picked a stock for this test yet. Maybe we should do that, then we will all be on the same page. Any sugestions AHB, Bruce, GD?

[tyfighter3]

Bruce, you know I only do energy stocks so FB wont do with this test or any stock you would be paying 50, 100, 200 times PE.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

How about a drone company?

NOC:NYSE.. They are anchoring a new tech development area in North Dakota. Drones are an area of growth, and the sector has gone on a run so a market swoon will knock these guys around short term, I'm sure.

PE of about 14 and an EPS of about 9, lots of contracts... In other words, great fundamentals and they even pay a dividend to boot.

[bimetalaupt]

May 14, 2014 15:44:50 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

May 14, 2014 11:38:02 GMT -5 tyfighter3 said:

It would have to be a stock that makes money and growing, does not pay a dividend yet and yes you got excited and bought at the high end but the fundalmentals are still intact.

Ty,

Discounted cash flow models use EBITDA rather then net earning availed(AVI) to common shares.  MANY FAST GROWING FIRMS SHOW A LOSS(AVI) DURING THE BUILD OUT PHASE OF GROWTH.  ISV DEFINES FUTURE BEST (IMHO).

 IT IS NICE TO PAY 50% OF Intrinsic Stock Value(ISV). 

Just a thought,

BiMetalAuPt

A+++, &

They have a sale on Today.  Buy in May High Beta Growth on the ^RUT!.  ^rut is 12.1% off Today.  WILL IT BE OFF 20% BY MAY N31,2014? I MIGHT TAKE CHUCK TO THE OUT LAW AND BUY SCHA!

ON THE OTHER HAND I MAY NEED SOME DRAMAMINE FOR THE RIDE SO I COULD LOAD UP ON RAD WITH A RAD WITH PEG 0.45! OR SHOULD I JUST BUY THE HOUSE (ETFC) WITH A PEG OF 0.57:RIDE THAT BETA OF 2.400! BUT THE %K= 26.86% NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR EXPERT 50/50.

WELL MAY IS ONLY HALF OVER AND MAY 27,2014 IS A NATIONAL HOLIDAY! FLEET WEEK!!

Just a thought,

BiMetalAuPt

[bimetalaupt]

May 14, 2014 22:55:41 GMT -5 tyfighter3 said:

Bruce, you know I only do energy stocks so FB wont do with this test or any stock you would be paying 50, 100, 200 times PE.

ty3,

FB has a Intrinsic Stock Value of 1.47. 

AMZN a big ZERO!..

I will Stick to XOM(239.28),JNJ(204.44) and HD (166.86)on Intrinsic Stock Value 200% current price with current interest.

Just a thought,

Bruce AKA BiMetalAuPt

[tyfighter3]

Guys, lets stay on track. Lets look at a stock that is at least 20% down from it's high.

[Deleted]

Here is one for you

EBS

[tyfighter3]

Lets say you buy a stock at its high end of its price range and something happens not related to that stock that drives the whole Market down. In a few days your stock is down 20%. The test is how do you trade this stock to regain your loss but ending up with the same amout of stock you started with and keeping that amount along the way and by doing that you have lowered your average price per share down to the current price in the market?

I think the Question is simple to understand.

[bimetalaupt]

May 15, 2014 13:43:25 GMT -5 tyfighter3 said:

Lets say you buy a stock at its high end of its price range and something happens not related to that stock that drives the whole Market down. In a few days your stock is down 20%. The test is how do you trade this stock to regain your loss but ending up with the same amout of stock you started with and keeping that amount along the way and by doing that you have lowered your average price per share down to the current price in the market?

I think the Question is simple to understand.

Ty3,

Yes and I did change the subject. Why try to catch a falling knife?

My answer to your question: Wait until the %K (black) for Fast Stochastics dips below 20% and crosses the %D (red) on the up side.  Like now Black line for HD is 24.90% and just crossed the red line (32.99%) ON THE WAY DOWN.  RELAX AND WAIT FOR %K TO LESS THEN 20% AND CLIMING ABOVE(ON ITS WAY UP)%D!..

Just a thought,

BiMetalAuPt

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

May 15, 2014 12:02:18 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

May 14, 2014 15:44:50 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

Ty,

Discounted cash flow models use EBITDA rather then net earning availed(AVI) to common shares.  MANY FAST GROWING FIRMS SHOW A LOSS(AVI) DURING THE BUILD OUT PHASE OF GROWTH.  ISV DEFINES FUTURE BEST (IMHO).

 IT IS NICE TO PAY 50% OF Intrinsic Stock Value(ISV). 

Just a thought,

BiMetalAuPt

A+++, &

They have a sale on Today.  Buy in May High Beta Growth on the ^RUT!.  ^rut is 12.1% off Today.  WILL IT BE OFF 20% BY MAY N31,2014? I MIGHT TAKE CHUCK TO THE OUT LAW AND BUY SCHA!

ON THE OTHER HAND I MAY NEED SOME DRAMAMINE FOR THE RIDE SO I COULD LOAD UP ON RAD WITH A RAD WITH PEG 0.45! OR SHOULD I JUST BUY THE HOUSE (ETFC) WITH A PEG OF 0.57:RIDE THAT BETA OF 2.400! BUT THE %K= 26.86% NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR EXPERT 50/50.

WELL MAY IS ONLY HALF OVER AND MAY 27,2014 IS A NATIONAL HOLIDAY! FLEET WEEK!!

Just a thought,

BiMetalAuPt

.. ,

I'm going to snag some up here for sure. I have some dividends to reinvest and will probably add a bit of new cash. Oct-Nov looks good as well. The big war may have started this year but historians will say that many years from now.

Headwinds are aproching, aka opportunities..

God Bless,

PS my transcripts finally came through this week. I will email ya later.

May 15, 2014 13:43:25 GMT -5 tyfighter3 said:

Lets say you buy a stock at its high end of its price range and something happens not related to that stock that drives the whole Market down. In a few days your stock is down 20%. The test is how do you trade this stock to regain your loss but ending up with the same amout of stock you started with and keeping that amount along the way and by doing that you have lowered your average price per share down to the current price in the market?

I think the Question is simple to understand.

I get it, Ty you are asking the best way to day trade your stock to make the 20% back. I'm guessing it has to do with the time of day and how the market will move in a somewhat predictable manner throughout the day?

[tyfighter3]

Yes AHB. Here is a list of trades I did in the IBB game Clear Sight that is still running on KOG.
Game: Clearsight - Trade History
Loading...
Date Trade Type Symbol Quantity Target Price Price Commission Total Cash Value Account Value
5/15/2014 3:09 PM Stock: Sell at Market KOG 30000 $12.26 $3.99 $367,796.01 $1,312,063.39
5/15/2014 2:14 PM Stock: Buy at Market KOG 30000 $12.03 $3.99 $360,903.99 $1,281,897.38
5/14/2014 2:24 PM Stock: Sell at Market KOG 30000 $12.58 $3.99 $377,396.01 $1,339,299.77
5/14/2014 11:54 AM Stock: Buy at Market KOG 30000 $12.40 $3.99 $372,003.99 $1,315,685.36
5/13/2014 1:57 PM Stock: Sell at Limit KOG 30000 $12.65 $12.65 $3.99 $379,496.01 $1,341,439.35
5/13/2014 11:51 AM Stock: Buy at Market KOG 30000 $12.44 $3.99 $373,203.99 $1,313,373.34
5/12/2014 3:22 PM Stock: Sell at Limit KOG 30000 $12.35 $12.35 $3.99 $370,496.01 $1,304,037.33
5/12/2014 11:36 AM Stock: Buy at Market KOG 30000 $12.13 $3.99 $363,903.99 $1,273,971.52
5/6/2014 11:01 AM Stock: Sell at Market KOG 50000 $12.49 $3.99 $624,246.01 $1,310,925.31
5/5/2014 12:21 PM Stock: Buy at Market KOG 30000 $12.36 $3.99 $370,803.99 $1,288,599.30
4/30/2014 12:57 PM Stock: Sell at Market KOG 30000 $12.59 $3.99 $377,696.01 $1,311,593.29
4/29/2014 3:33 PM Stock: Buy at Market KOG 30000 $12.43 $3.99 $372,753.99 $1,289,287.28
4/29/2014 10:27 AM Stock: Sell at Market KOG 30000 $12.72 $3.99 $381,596.01 $1,324,671.27
4/29/2014 9:58 AM Stock: Buy at Market Open KOG 30000 $12.42 $3.99 $372,603.99 $1,292,662.06

[tyfighter3]

On 4/15 I had a average per share around 13.60 then in 3 or 4 days the price of the stock fell into the 12.00 range. I thought the stock had a chance of Breaking out even knowing that weather could be a problem with earnings. So I put emotions aside and went into TEC mode. Support and Resistecse only. I traded 30% of the Core holdings of that stock only ,which was 100,000 shares. Checked over all of the resistence levels down to 10.00, checked support level which gave me a trading price level . The 30,000 shares that I traded and bought at a lower price than my average price per share added to my core holding and lowered my cost basis. And as you can see sold it for more than I paid for it. Did that for as many times as I need to to bring my cost down to where it is now to 12.47 per share. Plan on doing this for as long as I need to. Will post my trades here on kog going forward. So in doing this I'm not sitting on a 20 to 30% loss for 3 months but have got rid of it in 25 days, sooner if i would have sit on my computer for a few days but the weather was nice enough to play some golf. LOL
 
Disclaimer: I own no shares of KOG at this time and not trying to get or have anybody to buy this Stock. Use your own DD or your own Finiancial Adviser when wanting to buy a stock.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Golf, now there is something I wish I had time for. lol. Bought some new clubs last year, still brand new... Haha..

So as long as the price stays range bound you're OK, or because you are out at the end of the day on the trading shares, you can continue to bring the cost base down on the core?