The current price of key market indexes

[Value Buy]

Jan 2, 2015 9:54:03 GMT -5 @wxyz said:

Nice data.  BIG loss in silver.  Other than cattle, this data shows the result of a world wide deflationary environment.

Don't have much time to talk today.

Also check out copper. Way down. Shows the economy of the world has to be very soft.

Either that, or India and China way over bought supplies the last two years, and have to lower their supplies on hand now

Look at the entire oil complex. totally imploded.

Refiners are able to stick it to the trucking industry on Diesel

Futures are $.46 q gallon higher, but retail is still a dollar higher than gasoline at the pump.

Looking at the currencies, the dollar pulled out 2014 with amazing strength over the rival currencies.

Looking at year over year, one would think we did not see as much varience as we actually saw. Lots of ups and down through the year on the grains and in the hog complex.

I imagine there will be huge opportunities in commodities in 2015. We could see a much better rate of return in commodities than in stocks this year.

[Ombud]

4% YOY change in Russell 2000? Aren't small caps supposed to be the Canary in the coal mine?

[Value Buy]

Jan 2, 2015 10:16:18 GMT -5 Ombud said:

4% YOY change in Russell 2000? Aren't small caps supposed to be the Canary in the coal mine?

The Russell 2000 did have a bad year. It took a big hit back in late September, October, and barely recovered.

There have been many analysts that say they are worried about the over all health of the stock markets based on the lack of growth in the Russell 2000.

Pull up a five or three year chart on it, and it looks like we are just kind of building a new base, to break out from.

Of course, I am not a good chartist or technician, just a long term investor, so take it with a grain of salt.

Then again, look at the transportation index

Up 1738 points to 9139.92 in 2014.

That index bodes well for the health of the economy, but my thinking is we should take out the gains of the airline stocks and see what is left of the gain.

Looks like we might have a fun market early in 2015

Dow opens up a hundred points, drops a 100 points on disappointing manufacturing number, and recovers to post a gain of nine points on the day.....

[Value Buy]

Jan 5, 2014 11:26:10 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

From what little reading I have done recently.....

The view is cattle futures will remain at record levels as supply is low, weather in the plains area is terrible and low cattle numbers for future harvesting

Oil/gas complex- they feel will remain weak due to production. I disagree. If the economy is indeed improving demand will increase and will be reflected in rising prices

Natural gas. same thing, view is we are awash in it, but as bus and truck fleets convert to ng, more homes become fitted for ng furnaces, electric utilities still converting to ng because of pollution requirements, we will again see increased demand, raising the price per therm.

Gold and silver- this is one area where I am not sure what will happen this year.

Copper should rise, if economy is growing.

Grain commodities-will be interesting to see what happens with winter wheat this spring. Record cold temperatures could affect the crop, but then again it might be buried under a foot of snow to protect it. Traders may make a play on wheat futures in the coming weeks, raising the future prices considerably.

Interest rates- I cannot figure out where it will wind up. I think the 10 year is way ahead of itself already, but it is possible to see it keep increasing this year.

Could we see 4 to 4 1/2% by year's end? I thought this was not possible, three months ago, but with the large swing already in place, I guess it is possible.

Currencies- Euro is very strong right now. I think the dollar will improve against it this year if the Fed is indeed tightening, as Europe shows no sign of raising rates now.

Stocks- this is my favorite area...... I am looking for maybe 7 to 10% increase for the year.

I might be off a whopping 20%, plus or minus on this.

Any thoughts out there are appreciated. 

Here are my ramblings on January 5th of last year.

And obviously I was pretty incoherent at the time.

Got the cattle futures right.

Got the direction of the dollar right.

Got the stock market right, sort of, at 7 to 10% 

Totally blew the oil complex and natural gas, although ng is down just a little from last year.

Thought wheat would be a big gainer

Totally missed interest rates, but I just believed what was being said on that, because I will never figure out the global implications setting the interest rates.

Sort of right on gold/silver- did not know where it was headed, and went no where, although silver did drop big

time.

Missed the direction on copper badly.

And now you know why I do not trade commodities.

I WOULD BE BROKE.

Of course commodity trading is a day to day trade rather than long term, so maybe I might have had a few winners in there.

[Value Buy]

Dec. 31st closing prices      plus or minus with yr ago

Dow 17,823.07..............................up 1,246.31  good!
Nasdaq 4,736.05............................up 659.46     good!-getting close to the old 2000 high
S&P500 2,058.90...........................up 209.54
Russell 2000 1,204.70....................up 49.03
Transportation Index 9,139.92.........up 1,738.55 wow!
Utility Index 618.08........................up 127.51   wow!

Gold $1,184.10 oz..........................down $19.70
Platinum $1,208.90........................down $161.70
Silver $15.599 oz...........................down $3.90  ohoh

Copper $2.8255.............................down $.568


Brent oil $57.55 per barrel..............down $53.35  wow!
WTI oil $53.27 per barrel................down $45.34  wow!
Gasoline $1.4721 gallon NY Harbor..down $1.3187 wow!
Natural gas $2.889........................down $1.36    wow!

Heating oil $1.8336 gallon..............down $1.236  wow!
Diesel $1.83 gallon........................down $1.23
Coal $49.87..................................down$7.63    wow!

Wheat $589.75.............................down $26.45
Corn $3.97 bushel.........................down $.25

Soybeans $1023.50.......................down $69.00
Orange juice $139.80.....................up $.60
Lumber $328.20............................down $41.00
Live cattle $163.55........................up $28.85  no more steaks!
Lean hogs $81.20..........................down $4.425  mmmm, bacon!

Ten year Treasury 2.17% $100.55         $99.28

Euro $1.2096...............................down $.1660   oh oh where it is going?
Canadian dollar $85.97.................down $.08174
Yen $83.49..................................down $.2205

[ModE98]

Interesting figures, a lot of "down's". 
Wish they would show up at the supermarkets.  Food cost is steadily going up.

[Value Buy]

WTI oil briefly broke $50 a barrel this morning.

$49.45 a barrel.

Currently trading $50.25

Is this the bottom?

[Value Buy]

Jan 5, 2015 11:45:29 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

WTI oil briefly broke $50 a barrel this morning.

$49.45 a barrel.

Currently trading $50.25

Is this the bottom?

Evidently this was not the bottom.

Trading right now at $48.81 a barrel.

Scary.

Even I realize this is below where it should be.

The world economy is just not quite that bad.

Everyone across the world is still using oil

[Value Buy]

Just released data

Gasoline inventories reported up 8.2 million barrels

Distillate inventories up over 11 million barrels

Hmmn, do we take this as an over production problem or is this a diminished demand problem?

  

[Value Buy]

This bodes ill for oil prices.

Do we lose our stock gains from this morning?

Dow up 129 points right now.

[Value Buy]

Tomorrow is the fifteenth, and it will be interesting, or maybe gut wrenching to see where the different benchmarks come in at.

The oil futures really turned around in the last hour, but it might be because the contract was rolling to the next month after today.

Copper is scary cheap right now.

[Value Buy]

Look at the pre-markets this morning

oil complex almost to $50

Metal complex up

This is going to be an interesting day.

[Value Buy]

January 15th prices

Dow 17,320.71
Nasdaq 4,5780.82
S&P500 1,992.17
Russell 2000 1,154.71
Transportation Index 8,655.94
Utility Index 634.46

Gold $1,258.90 oz
Platinum $1,258.15
Silver $16.905 oz
Copper $2.5715


Brent oil $48.00 per barrel
WTI oil $46.25 per barrel
Gasoline $1.3002 gallon NY Harbor
Natural gas $3.196
Heating oil $1.6241 gallon
Diesel $1.6233 gallon
Coal $47.68

Wheat $532.75
Corn $380.00
Soybeans $991.00
Orange juice $146.65
Lumber $314.80
Live cattle $154.95
Lean hogs $75.75

Ten year Treasury 1.724%

Euro $116.21
Canadian dollar $83.46
Yen $86.08

If you go back to December 15th prices, the only items that are up is the Dow, Utility index, the gold complex, and the yen versus the dollar.

EVERYTHING else is down, in major amounts. There is no little swing on prices for a period of one month.

Despite the huge down days in the market, we are still in good shape.

If in the utility index, you are way up due to collapsing interest rates.

Oil complex-this morning in pre-market, it was hovering around $49 and up a barrel. I thought we saw the lows earlier this week and made a base, but it sold down in the afternoon.

Wednesday WTI was almost at par with Brent. It was trading within 8 to 12 cents a barrel with Brent. This has not happened for years, and was considered to be an important change in world sentiment, if wti passed Brent in price.

Commentary says the world has oil tankers around the world with oil and refined products sitting out there waiting for the oil complex to turn around so they can sell the product at a considerable  profit.

If it does not go up, we will see more product released into the market after traders get tired of monthly holding costs.

Gold complex is up, but still not really doing much. It is up more of a safe haven play escaping a rocky stock and commodity market.

Grain commodities are all down as we roll over into new contracts.

Lumber and copper-both markets are falling. Copper has fallen very fast, and now lumber has dropped from around $340 to $315.

If it stays down, look for new housing cost to drop some.

Cattle has finally broken off it's all time highs. Usually when we get the cold snow conditions in the plains area, cattle prices rise, but now they are softening.

Yen is up, Canadian dollar down, and Euro is still declining. Swiss central bank through everyone a curve yesterday by decoupling from the Euro and wil have to wait if anyone else does this in Europe. Greece is a large concern for Germany, plus now we have the terrorist attack and responses going on so everything is a day to day situation there.

The ten year. What is there to say?

1.724% No one had predicted this.

There is no way our Fed can raise interest rates now. They are at the mercy of the international market rates.

We see no sign of inflation, wages still static here in the states.

January has turned into a trader's paradise.

Or in some funds, a nightmare of wrong trades.

[Value Buy]

thanks wxyz

Just some ramblings, with some truth, some thoughts, and some probably very wrong predictions, but it is interesting to muse about it.

I am of the belief the commodity trades are hard to do as Goldman Sachs and others pretty well manipulate some of it, but even they sometime get caught holding the bag.

A good example why it is so hard to be correct in commodities was the Swiss franc this week. Some Monetary traders were virtually wiped out on the wrong side of a trade. And yet, it was said there was huge money transfers and trading the day before the announcement.

You just never know what might happen,

I am wondering if this was  BLACK SWAN event that BiMetal refers to.

At the beginning of this week all you heard was oil was broken and would not see high prices for years.

Later this week prediction is $80 oil this year.

Nothing has changed in the oil market. Someone is right, someone is wrong.

And we can add this thought process to stocks.

Which way is Google headed? Apple? Amazon? Xom?

[The Virginian]

Good info Value !

 As for oil - I hope it stays low for a while longer but I believe $80 is probably close to the right price. Consumption is still the same and the population keeps growing and so will demand.

[Value Buy]

January 30th closing prices

Dow 17,164.95
Nasdaq 4,632.68
S&P500 1,993.87
Russell 2000 1,168.26
Transportation Index 8,649.20
Utility Index 637.21

Gold $1,284.60 oz
Platinum $1,240.50
Silver $17.225 oz
Copper $2.506


Brent oil $52.49 per barrel closing price. $52.16 after hours market
WTI oil $48.24 per barrel closing price, $47.51 after hours
Gasoline $1.4152 gallon NY Harbor
Natural gas $2.67
Heating oil $1.6863 gallon
Diesel $1.686 gallon
Coal $46.32

Wheat $502.71
Corn $370.00
Soybeans $961.00
Orange juice $140.00

Lumber $321.80
Live cattle $152.30
Lean hogs $72.25

Ten year Treasury 1.637%

Euro $112.97
Canadian dollar $78.65
Yen $85.20

This was the worst month for the Dow and S&P 500 since last January. That said, we know where the stock market went after January last year.

WTI oil spiked on Friday, but no one seems to know if it was option expiration related, a short squeeze on traders. or just the bottom of the fall in oil. or even if it was the Greek credit crisis.

Natural gas was down due to lack of demand despite cold weather. The draw down in supply was weaker than expected.

Grain commodities still trending down as well as cattle and hogs.

Ten year chart comparing January 2015 with January 2014 is almost a mirror image with the ten yr trading exactly where it was a year ago.

[Value Buy]

OIL FUTURES ARE ALL OVER THE BOARD THIS WEEK, TAKING AIRPLANE STOCKS ON A WILD RIDE

Up yesterday and down big today on oil

wti down 8% today.

[ModE98]

WILD, is the word!

[Value Buy]

Feb 4, 2015 16:47:28 GMT -5 ModE98 said:

WILD, is the word!

That was a wild half hour closing.

All about Greece supposedly

[Value Buy]

February 16th closing prices


Dow 18,047.58
Nasdaq 4,899.27
S&P500 2,100.34
Russell 2000 1,224.22
Transportation Index 9,045.06
Utility Index 593.37

Gold $1,208.30 oz
Platinum $1,176.70
Silver $16.475 oz
Copper $2.6075


Brent oil $62.20 per barrel
WTI oil $53.09 per barrel
Gasoline $1.5848 gallon NY Harbor
Natural gas $2.777
Heating oil $1.9664 gallon
Diesel $1.966 gallon
Coal $51.12

Wheat $534.75
Corn $389.50
Soybeans $1007.75
Orange juice $137.70
Lumber $305.50
Live cattle $150.775
Lean hogs $64.25

Ten year Treasury 2.141%

Euro $111413
Canadian dollar $80.76
Yen $83.88

[Value Buy]

February 25 th prices compared to February 16th


Dow 18,047.58         18,224.57
Nasdaq 4,899.27        4,967.14
S&P 500 2,100.34       2,113.86  
Russell 2000 1,224.22   1,235.10
Transportation Index 9,045.06    9,131.80
Utility Index 593.37      598.48

Gold $1,208.30 oz        1,205.20
Platinum $1,176.70       1,172.40
Silver $16.475 oz         16.51
Copper $2.6075        2.6625


Brent oil $62.20 per barrel    61.91
WTI oil $53.09 per barrel      50.77
Gasoline $1.5848 gallon NY Harbor     1.7294
Natural gas $2.777          2.877
Heating oil $1.9664 gallon    2.108
Diesel $1.966 gallon            2.11
Coal $51.12                   52.11
  
Wheat $534.75               497.75
Corn $389.50                 375.75
Soybeans $1007.75          1,007.75
Orange juice $137.70       123.20
Lumber $305.50              291.20
Live cattle $150.775         146.85
Lean hogs $64.25             69.325

Ten year Treasury 2.141%   1.97

Euro $111413                  1.1363
Canadian dollar $80.76      80.43
Yen $83.88                      84.16

This might be the best market we are going to see in years.
Stocks are on fire this month ready to go still higher. Much higher.

Commodities are at a crossroads.
Oil has potentially bottomed, refiners are making a fortune on the spread, raising the retail for gasoline well above the cost of oil.
Grain commodities are slipping and the beef complex has finally been broken to a downward trajectory.
I am not sure if traders are dumping soft commodities to re-enter the oil trade, but commodity markets are very volital.
OJ futures are falling very fast regardless of Florida production projection. 
Yellen has told the markets they will jot be raising interest rates this summer. I sincerely doubt they will before September. The Fed will have to raise it this year regardless of Europe's situation.
There is no way the Fed waits until after the first of the year, because we start the Presidential vetting season and there is no way anyone will allow the beginning of  rising interest rates in a Presidential primary race. The rate rise has to start well before the Presidential race season starts, so as to not scare the voting public.
I am simply amazed no pundit has mentioned this fact yet.
Look for a fall rate increase in 2015 with at least a second raise to occur before the first of the year.
Utilities will take a hit on this, but banks will rise as fast as utilities fall.

We are potentially seeing a very good chance of making some great money this year, if we make the correct assumptions.

[Value Buy]

February 27th closing data



Dow 18,132.70
Nasdaq 4,963.53
S&P500 2,104.50
Russell 2000 1,235.13
Transportation Index 9,024.52
Utility Index 594.19

Gold $1,212.500 oz
Platinum $1,187.40
Silver $16.555 oz
Copper $2.6865


Brent oil $62.06 per barrel
WTI oil $49.29 per barrel
Gasoline $1.80 gallon NY Harbor
Natural gas $2.71
Heating oil $2.2989 gallon
Diesel $2.29 gallon
Coal $52.38

Wheat $513.00
Corn $384.50
Soybeans $1031.75
Orange juice $121.55
Lumber $294.80
Live cattle $151.70
Lean hogs $67.475

Ten year Treasury 1.995%

Euro $111.91
Canadian dollar $79.79
Yen $83.60

Stock markets had a very good month, reclaiming everything we lost in January. Looks like the markets are waiting for Nasdaq 5,000 so it can finally start hitting new record highs to match the records of the Dow and S&P 500.
Oil complex is fluctuating in a close range, but the refinery side is up. Large spread between gasoline and wti right now.
Heating oil and diesel have also spiked. Some of this is because of refinery strikes across the country, but now the refiners are printing money at the expense of the consumer.
Even coal has gained some momentum. Not sure if it is just a sympathy move with oil, or is due to higher electric needs due to the cold surrounding the Midwest and the East coast.
Lumber continues a sell off, but copper has climbed off it's lows, so I do not know what this means for the housing industry.
Cattle futures are drifting down, pork bellies are starting to trade in a range, and oj futures continue downward.
The ten year is again below 2% defying the market perspective of higher interest rates. I do see the Fed raising rates this fall. They will not want to start the process of higher interest rates next spring due to the Presidential campaign. They have to start doing it this year to keep the markets from having a major sell off during the Presidential campaign. This does mess up the fact they do not want to raise rates if Europe keeps rates at record lows, because our rates will attract European money here, hurting Europe's recovery.
I am of the opinion we will continue to see another record year for most stock indexes. We still do not see any inflation in commodities, and the consumers of the world should all be seeing positive results of lower power costs. Not so much for the major oil exporters. Venezuela will be  in a big hole.

The Utility indexes are the only exception to new record highs. Look for utilities to sell off this year, but the major banks should all see new record highs. Citi will be the exception. They have a heck of a way to get back to even after the last reverse stock split. 
This year is going to be fun!

[The Virginian]

Gasoline jumped from a low of $1.89 per gallon to now $2.29 per gallon in this part of Virginia.

[ModE98]

Thanks for the data, VB.  Hope things remain on track for another good year.

Rising gasoline prices are a problem at the moment, hopefully leveling out soon.

[tyfighter3]

This year will not be good for most Farmers because they will lose money on every acre of corn they plant at the current price of corn. What company's will take a hit this year because of this. I think most Machinery Companys, fertilizer companys, maybe even the Ford, Dodge trucks will be less in sales. John Deere has already came out with lower forcast for this year. Their are a lot of Companys that deal with commodities that depend on what the price of a certain commodity is, whether they can make enough money from the spread or not to make a profit. Some of these Companys have had a good run the last few years so I would keep a eye on them. JMO

[Value Buy]

Mar 3, 2015 12:00:52 GMT -5 tyfighter3 said:

This year will not be good for most Farmers because they will lose money on every acre of corn they plant at the current price of corn. What company's will take a hit this year because of this. I think most Machinery Companys, fertilizer companys, maybe even the Ford, Dodge trucks will be less in sales. John Deere has already came out with lower forcast for this year. Their are a lot of Companys that deal with commodities that depend on what the price of a certain commodity is, whether they can make enough money from the spread or not to make a profit. Some of these Companys have had a good run the last few years so I would keep a eye on them. JMO

I imagine some farmers will switch to soybeans. They seem a little stronger right now.

[tyfighter3]

Well, Beans have been holding around $10 so that is a good price to work with. How many acres that will change over will be anybodies guess right now. Will probably force Bean prices down. jmo

[Value Buy]

March 14th closing prices

Dow 17,977.42
Nasdaq 4,929.51
S&P 500 2,081.19
Russell 2000 1,239.78
Transportation Index 9,096.60
Utility Index 582.75

Gold $1,153.80 oz
Platinum $1,106.40
Silver $15.63 oz
Copper $2.663

Brent oil $54.12 per barrel
WTI oil $43.79 per barrel
Gasoline $1.728 gallon NY Harbor
Natural gas $2.748
Heating oil $1.703 gallon
Diesel $1.706 gallon
Coal $53.08

Wheat $514.00
Corn $379.00
Soybeans $969.29
Orange juice $115.55
Lumber $269.50
Live cattle $153.20
Lean hogs $62.20

Ten year Treasury 2.07%

Euro $105.67
Canadian dollar $78.16
Yen $82.46

Stock market is suffering from serious case of hiccups right now, Dow up 200 down 180 up 100 down 200. Big swings, but still hovering around all time highs.
Oil complex is slipping and finally the traders have decided to trade diesel and heating oil where it should be, comparable to gasoline pricing.
Gold silver complex still slipping, as is the grain complex.
Looks like supermarket orange juice should start dropping, which makes breakfast with bacon and oj looking much cheaper this summer, to say nothing about your bacon and tomato sandwich for lunch. Lean hogs are probably now in a trading range pattern in the low sixty dollar range. Futures usually hold lean hogs and cattle higher, due to demand.  
Cattle prices seem to be holding in the $150 range, so those steaks this summer will remain pricey.
Ten year note looks to remain above 2% and may reach 2.25% soon. I still do not see how the Fed can raise rates until Europe comes out of even lower rates.
The Euro looks like we gain parity to the dollar very soon, while the yen and Canadian dollar remain stable at present rates.

With commodity prices still slipping, I have to admit wxyz is probably correct we may see deflation in our future rather than inflation. I really felt this would not happen, but the numbers in commodities are starting to bear this out.
All commodity prices seem to be in a bear market for now.

[Value Buy]

Mar 18, 2015 7:47:39 GMT -5 @wxyz said:

Like the analysis VALUE.

I am like a broken record with the deflation. (there is a phrase that anyone under the age of 30 has probably never heard)  I believe we have been in a deflationary depression for the past six years around the world.  That is why all the stimulus and interest rate collapse has had nearly no impact.  That is why wages have gone down and there has been no pressure to rise.  That is why the real unemployment rate is over 15%.  All of our social programs and other government programs mask a lot of the impact so it does not seem like the great depression when we had no government "HELP" programs.

But, that is the past.  Going forward I still believe we are seeing deflation.  The issue will be whether it is short term or long term.  Will it be over in 6-12 months which will not really be much of an issue or will we be in a Japan situation with it lasting for 10-20 years.  We will all find out when we look back in about ten years.  Obviously I think the EU is going to have a much greater issue than we do whatever the situation.  I believe even if our economy sucks we will still be the HAVEN for the worlds money via treasuries, stocks and real estate.  Much of the outcome will depend on the next election and the policies of the next admin.  No chance of any change or economic awareness coming from the current people in power.

Keep up the good work with this thread.

Good thoughts.
I am wondering about European money in our stock and commodity markets right now.
With the falling Euro against the dollar, are Europeans pulling funds out of these investments before the Euro falls even more?
Is this why we are having such huge swings in the stock markets?

[ArchietheDragon]

The market seems to have missed the Fed meeting announcement. #FedSarcasam #JustJoking #TheMarketIsASillyPlace