The current price of key market indexes

[damnotagain]

I am with you corn and soy beans dropping . Yields are way up weather near perfect. 
 A stronger dollar always takes a bite out of prices. 

 manufacturing took a hit world wide. Interest rates will remain low and the fed will eventually have to create a new name for a new QE .

[Deleted]

Disinflation is not the same as Deflation.

Disinflation is the slowing of or stagnating of Inflation Rates; which is common to any sort of Quantitative Easing action by a Central Bank.

Disinflation over a prolonged period can hamper GDP growth and severely restrict an economy; which is what we have been seeing here in the U.S.

The St. Louis Fed admitted in their September 2014 paper that the FED actions of the past 6+ years have actually suppressed Inflation by 33% Annual based on the amount of Liquidity that the FED has poured in to the economy and that current FED actions of the past 6+ years are actually hurting the U.S. Economy.

The only real play the FED has is to raise rates whether it likes it or not. The real issue (if you read between the lines in all the FED published papers) is how to raise rates without triggering Hyperinflation; although the secondary problem is the longer they wait to raise rates, the larger the risk of triggering Hyperinflation as a result of raising rates.

Such is the state of things due to a Dual Mandate & the ill decision over 6 years back in which it was decided by the FED and the Government at large to not allow the economy to pay for the financial sins of the last 30 years..

[Value Buy]

This morning the spread was around $2.55 a barrel between Brent and wti.

Very small in historical terms

I am assuming this portends traders are planning for a European slowdown

[Value Buy]

October 7th, Tuesday morning:

WTI oil $89.67

Brent $91.93

Gold $1209.90

Dow 16,882

Oil still trending down, gold might be hitting a base. Is Europe buying gold as Euro drops?

Oil might be hitting their low right now. This is just a guess on my part.

Thoughts?

[Deleted]

The picture for oil in Our opinion is very cloudy right now.

Typically, We have noticed that any weakness in oil tends to take several weeks, if not a couple of months to translate over into at the pump gasoline prices & that seems to be the norm..

Yet, this go around at the pump gas prices have fallen off $0.60 (for 86 grade) in just 15 days; this is very much to Our eye anything but typical.

Based on that, and the reaction around Our area (folks crowding gas stations with 20/30 5 gal. gas cans to fill them all at cheap price), the picture is very muddy/cloudy I.O.O.

Pump prices on gas seem to indicate a lower direction on Oil; yet folks reactions to the lower pump prices; seems to indicate a belief that Oil prices will spike back to AS or higher, sooner rather than later..

[tyfighter3]

Commoditites coming down is a blessing for consumers, will give them more money to spend, not good for investers that own those stocks right now. The Saudis are increasing their production, for what purpose, who knows. Their production cost are in the single digits, are they wanting a price war? It's something NA wouldn't be able to win. I think the Middle East is at WAR with us, but WE don't know it yet. JMO

[Value Buy]

Oct 7, 2014 12:58:02 GMT -5 tyfighter3 said:

Commoditites coming down is a blessing for consumers, will give them more money to spend, not good for investers that own those stocks right now. The Saudis are increasing their production, for what purpose, who knows. Their production cost are in the single digits, are they wanting a price war? It's something NA wouldn't be able to win. I think the Middle East is at WAR with us, but WE don't know it yet. JMO

Saudi's are big investors in Europe and U.S.

Their investment portfolios have to be hurting.

They use these investments to fulfill government largesse to their working class, who they overwhelmingly support financially.

I imagine they are pumping oil to pay the bill rather than liquidate  some investments.

This is also the first time since the seventies, that opec does not control the price of oil.

Has to be a bit of culture shock for them.

[tyfighter3]

Somebody else thinking about this.
www.marketwatch.com/story/can-saudis-beat-north-dakota-in-an-oil-price-war-2014-10-08

[Ombud]

On a pedestrian level, I live in CA Bay Area and the gas price here is at 3.299 a gallon for regular

[Value Buy]

Oct 9, 2014 9:55:27 GMT -5 Ombud said:

On a pedestrian level, I live in CA Bay Area and the gas price here is at 3.299 a gallon for regular

Darn.

Northwest Indiana here, and yesterday still stuck between $3.18 and $3.29 a gallon for regular, but then we are held hostage by British Petroleum owning the largest refinery in the Chicago area. Since they bought out Standard oil several years ago we have seen higher market prices. Considering Indiana has a much smaller tax on gasoline than California, we should be well under $3.00 right now.

And yet, the futures on wti oil is down to $86.29 and Brent $90.66 a barrel today

RBOB, 2.296 a gallon.

Now the Dow is tanking and we are seeing the third consequitive day of almost a 300 point move. Only 225 points so far.......

It looks like we are on a serious move in the stock markets that is occurring. Whether this is European investors selling our markets because they need money, I am not sure anymore. Sometimes when their market closes, we improve, sometimes we remain in the basement. Hard to figure it out

Gold up $17 an oz.

[Deleted]

Look at the opposite ends of the spectrum in the Market. A lot of what is actually going up today are in fact Small/Micro Caps & a lot of what is going down is Large/Mega Caps.

Small/Micro Caps are a bit Oversold at this point & well everyone knows that to a great degree Large/Mega Caps are well over extended..

Just a thought.

[Value Buy]

WTI oil at $84.81, Brent, $89.42 on pre-market

We now see a $4.61 spread between the two, going towards a more natural long term discrepancy.

Portfolio took the largest hit ever yesterday.

Down $18,000

Two days before  a $14,000 hit and then a $14,000 gain.

Today should be interesting, but am not sure I have the stomach to watch. 

[Ombud]

Should turn around soon, now that I've sold my 3 biggest losers and missed getting 1 that I wanted. Buy was in for Monday but hesitant to let an order sit over the weekend.

[Value Buy]

October 15th closing prices

Dow 16,141.74
Nasdaq 4,215.32
S&P 500 1862.49
Russell 2000 1,072.45
Transportation index 7,937.48
Utility index 558.64

Gold $1,244.70 oz.
Platinum $1,256.80
Silver $17.525 oz.
Copper $3.012

Brent crude $83.08 per barrel
WTI Oil $80.79 per barrel
Gasoline $2.1485 gallon, NY Harbor
Natural gas $3.804
Heating oil $2.44 gallon
Diesel $2.4412 gallon
Coal $51.25 

Wheat $506.25
Corn $3.4775 bushel
Soybeans $950.00
Orange Juice $1.3680
Lumber $336.20
Live cattle $1.62875
Lean hogs $99.90

10 year treasury 2.15%

Euro $1.2806
Canadian dollar $88.62

Yen $94.28

Where do we start?

We had a large sell off this morning, and I thought, ok here comes the capitulation in the stock market, then it started to recover.

After the news of the nurse traveling commercial jet and now having Ebola after arriving in Dallas, the markets again panicked.

We did see a recovery to down only 173 points on the day.

Dow down 890 points in two weeks. The stock market has been totally hit this week. Rumors of major margin calls for accounts that were buying stocks on margin. Some pundits are saying this is a technical sell off rather than a market capitulation sell off
The oil index is in free fall, There are thoughts there are hedge funds that have lost hundreds of millions on bad bets of oil and stock spreads they were running, and they are cashing out now. 

Gold and silver up slightly but amazingly we cannot tell whether they are entering a bull market or not.

Soft commodities-the grains have been slowly gaining strength. This seems the only area where prices are creeping up. With record or near record harvests predicted, it seems strange they are now climbing from their recent lows.

Cattle prices remain high but pork futures are still slightly falling, down $15 in 30 days trading.

Treasury markets- were in free fall this morning. ten year bond dropped below 2% for quite awhile before recovering. It has seen big moves this week where a big move is like two tenths of one percent.

The Euro jumped today, and this is strange as European stock markets are scarier than ours right now.

The Yen has also seen a good bump in two weeks.

After hours news, Netflix took a $120 hit on their stock price on disappointing earnings.

Now we wait and see if Europe sells off again and what that portends for us on Thursday.

[Value Buy]

October 31st closing prices

Dow 17,390.52

Nasdaq 4,630.74

S&P500 2,018.05

Russell 2000 1,173.50

Transportation Index 8,755.51

Utility Index 596.63

Gold  $1,172.20 oz

Platinum  $1,236.80

Silver  $16.015 oz

Copper  $3.0495

Brent oil $85.85 per barrel

WTI oil $80.61 per barrel

Gasoline $2.1471 gallon NY Harbor

Natural gas $3.873

Heating oil $2.5124 gallon

Diesel $2.51235 gallon

Coal $53.25

Wheat  $532.50

Corn $3.7675 bushel

Soybeans $1046.50

Orange juice $133.65

Lumber $324.10

Live cattle $166.05

Lean hogs $88.025

Ten year Treasury 2.3281 %

Euro  $125.23

Canadian dollar  $88.68

Yen $89.04

What a difference two weeks make in the data.

Dow and S&P 500 set new record highs when pundits claimed we were in correction mode. Utility index still climbing even though the Fed stopped monetary easing last week.

Gold down $70 an oz in two weeks, silver bad as well

Oil complex continues to stay low, but might have hit bottom, although was down again Monday.

Grain commodities continue a slow climb upward, but I think it is commodity traders leaving gold and oil and putting money in them.

The dollar remains strong with Euro and other currencies still soft or down.

Cattle complex still expensive, but hogs are still dropping. Lumber is slumping slightly

[Value Buy]

November 14th closing prices

Dow 17,634.70
Nasdaq 4,688.54
S&P500 2,039.82
Russell 2000 1,173.81
Transportation Index 9,061.53
Utility Index 586.04


Gold $1,185.60 oz
Platinum $1,236.80
Silver $16.314 oz
Copper $3.0465


Brent oil $79.41 per barrel
WTI oil $75.82 per barrel
Gasoline $2.0425 gallon NY Harbor
Natural gas $4.02
Heating oil $2.4161 gallon
Diesel $2.416 gallon
Coal $52.00

Wheat $560.50
Corn $3.8175 bushel
Soybeans $1022.50
Orange juice $131.10
Lumber $319.90
Live cattle $170.20
Lean hogs $92.65

Ten year Treasury 2.32 %

Euro $125.25
Canadian dollar $88.57
Yen $88.57

[Value Buy]

Not sure what is going on with lumber.

Continues a sell off with the housing industry on the mend.

Soft commodities are still strong off their lows.

Oil complex looks like it might have bottomed but we need it to stagnate here at these levels if we are to see a strong economy. Commodity traders have pushed natural gas futures up 20% in a month on one cold spell, showing once again the commodity trades are not based on product availability, but rather on big money manipulation of the exchange, imo......

Cattle futures remain stronger than ever, still at new highs

Interest rates do not look like they will rise in the immediate future which is good for the economy and corporations, bad for banks.

Stocks- still looks like Dow 18,000 this year with a month and a half to go. S&P 500 is in lockstep with the Dow.

Nasdaq, no one is talking about a new all time high in this, but it maintains a steady upward trend there too.

[Value Buy]

November 28th closing prices

November 14th closing prices

Dow 17,828.24
Nasdaq 4,791.63
S&P500 2,067.56
Russell 2000 1,173.23
Transportation Index 9,198.20
Utility Index 599.70

Gold $1,175.50 oz
Platinum $1,211.30
Silver $15.556 oz
Copper $2.8460


Brent oil $70.05 per barrel
WTI oil $66.05 per barrel
Gasoline $1.8274 gallon NY Harbor
Natural gas $4.08
Heating oil $2.16 gallon
Diesel $2.16 gallon
Coal $54.00

Wheat $578.50
Corn $3.8875 bushel
Soybeans $1016.00
Orange juice $148.95
Lumber $327.70
Live cattle $169.25
Lean hogs $88.225

Ten year Treasury 2.25 %

Euro $124.38
Canadian dollar $87.40
Yen $84.24

Eleven months in on the year now

Stocks are showing a good gain for the year again. Dow should close above 18,000. No one is talking about the Nasdaq, but it is really gaining strength, hitting new multi yearly highs, getting close to being able to take out the astounding old go go tech year highs sometime next year.

Transportation index still strong on lower oil costs, Utility index strong due to no foreseeable interest rate hikes.

Gold silver complex is very weak and falling. China and India are not buying it.

Oil. Weak and getting weaker.

WTI Collapsed last week on Friday, dropping 10%

Overseas tonight, falling lower again.

We now have heating oil going for $2.16 a gallon. The Northeast states will have the cheapest heating bills they have had in years, with no shortage of product.

Grain commodities still climbing higher, due to commodity traders not finding any commodities to push up other than the grains, despite a great crop harvest this year. Farmers are buried in grain right now with farm co-op storage full. Some areas of the country are literally storing corn on the ground.

OJ is showing the seasonal push upward where traders are determined frost will occur in Florida. Way too early on that front.

Beef is still very strong, but pork continues to tumble on good supply of pork.

Some retail sale bacon is now 2 lbs for $5 instead of a feature of $5 a lb. All in a period of six months.

Ten year treasury trading sideways, but not going up anytime soon, keeping consumer interest rates low for the time being.

The currencies are all slightly falling against the dollar. Again, few people are talking about imports becoming cheaper for the American consumer due to this situation, but it also hurts our exports as they become more expensive overseas.

Good trading everyone.

I had expected a sell off in ourt markets after the first of the year when we hit Dow 18,000, but, unless China's or Europe's stock markets collapse, we are going to see a strong December, and a very good market for the first six months of next year here in the states.

[The Virginian]

I had expected a sell off in ourt markets after the first of the year when we hit Dow 18,000, but, unless China's or Europe's stock

markets collapse, we are going to see a strong December, and a very good market for the first six months of next year here in the states.

Hope you are right ! I said all along 18,500 by year end but I am at a loss as what to expect in 2015.

[Value Buy]

I am looking at the Euro dollar exchange rate.

Hard to believe the Euro was at $1.30 just in September.

The yen dropped again this morning against the dollar.

Who would have thought the dollar would be king, when just a few years ago the Middle East oil producers were talking changing oil trades to the Euro due to the weak dollar and the perception the dollar was not the major monetary trading vehicle.

[Value Buy]

December 15th closing prices

Dow 17,180.84
Nasdaq 4,605.16
S&P500 1,989.63
Russell 2000 1,140.30
Transportation Index 8,857.12
Utility Index 592.61

Gold $1,194.10 oz
Platinum $1,209.50
Silver $16.18 oz
Copper $2.8695


Brent oil $60.64 per barrel
WTI oil $55.40 per barrel
Gasoline $1.5625 gallon NY Harbor
Natural gas $3.734
Heating oil $1.979 gallon
Diesel $1.9778 gallon
Coal $51.90

Wheat $619.00
Corn $408.50 bushel
Soybeans $1039.50
Orange juice $148.00
Lumber $336.30
Live cattle $161.00
Lean hogs $83.025

Ten year Treasury 2.115%

Euro $124.30
Canadian dollar $85.83
Yen $84.30

Wow. So much for the Santa Claus rally!

If you look at October 31st closing prices, we are almost at a mirror image for stocks. We are right back to November 1st numbers.

Commodities are a different story.

Gold and silver not much has changed. Copper is soft again

Oil and gasoline has collapsed.

Looks like we might hit $50 a barrel in WTI sometime this week. I think that might be the low for it.

Oil is in total free fall and newscasts claim hedge funds are closing left and right, forced to selling everything because they bet on energy staying strong, and so far underwater they are having fire sales to close the books, selling their winning stocks to stem the bloodbath.

Natural gas remains soft, so everyone in the cold weather belt that heats with ng are assured of low heating bills this year.

Same for the northeast that depends on heating oil. This is grat news for our economy.

Soft grain commodities are climbing.

Hedge funds that are not closing out are going into the grains as that is the only area they see could be a positive market for them.

I disagree. With the strong dollar our grains will be even more expensive for countries that are being crushed in the commodity sector, and they will not be able to pay the high prices for our grains in dollars.

Canadian dollar and the yen are still struggling, Euro has stabilized.

Although I do not track the Russian ruble, it is virtually collapsing. Down 9% today.

This does not bode well for Europe economically or politically. They live next door to Russia, and affects their economy and trading immensely.

And the ten year still beats the bet that interest rates are going up soon, as it is drifting lower.

We heard this argument on the ten year a year ago, and we are still soft.

Cattle may have finally topped out. Down to $161. Hogs are continuing in the downward trend.

Do we see the bottom in stocks this week and turn it around in the final two weeks of trading this week?

[Value Buy]

WTI oil trading at $54.18 this morning.

Down from $55.40 close yesterday

Ruble is in free fall.

[The Virginian]

The Russia Ruble was about 32 - 1 US Dollar about a year ago ---- Today 73 Rubles - 1 US Dollar ! A huge difference

[Value Buy]

Dec 16, 2014 12:23:07 GMT -5 @wxyz said:

Good thread Value.  How about a big year end summary in a few weeks..

Thank you.  I really appreciate that.

I might try, but sometimes I just kind of ramble......and get lost in the minutia.

[Value Buy]

WTI is at $55.80 and change.

Lately it has been trading down in after hours trading.

If it can hold the price in after hours trading, we might have hit a support area for oil.

If we do, then we might see the stocks indexes start climbing again.

Gold trading around $1,195 an oz, under $1,200 again.

[Ombud]

Dec 16, 2014 9:43:10 GMT -5 The Virginian said:

The Russia Ruble was about 32 - 1 US Dollar about a year ago ---- Today 73 Rubles - 1 US Dollar ! A huge difference

Run on Russian supermarkets again. Wonder how Putin will spin it

Value Buy said:

Gold trading around $1,195 an oz, under $1200 again

Thought it usually countered the market so if market was down yesterday, why was it down too? Waiting to pick up a 1915 St Gaudin

[Value Buy]

Looks like natural gas futures are taking a big hit this week.

Some analysts say it is because of warmer weather expected in the east coast areas.

I disagree-- the east coast is not the major user of ng yet.

I believe it is oil traders who have taken such big losses lately, have to sell their ng positions to stay afloat.

[The Virginian]

I believe it is oil traders who have taken such big losses lately, have to sell their ng positions to stay afloat.

Could be, Winter has just started so too early to blame warm weather. Long term it looks good. A lot of new power plants being built to replace coal plants and all are natural gas.

[Value Buy]

The Euro has broke $1.22

Now at $1.2175

I wonder if some of the multi nationals were wishing they had brought back some earnings from Europe last summer and simply pay the tax on the earnings.

Now the earnings are not looking quite as good overseas.

[Value Buy]

Dec 31, 2013 16:38:53 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Dec. 31st  2012 yr end closing prices  Dec. 2013 prices yr end    Dec 31st 2014 closing prices

Dow 13,104.14 --                                     --16,576.66   ......................17,823.07
Nasdaq 3,019.51--                                   --4,176.59...........................4,736.05
S&P 500 1,426.19--                                  --1,848.36...........................2,058.90
Russell 2000 849.35--                               --1,155.67..........................1,204.70

Transportation index 5,306.77--                 --7,400.57..........................9,139.92
Utility index 453.09--                                --490.57.............................618.08
Gold $1,675.80 oz--                                  --1,203.80..........................1,184.10
Platinum $1,542.40--                                --1,37060...........................1,208.90
Silver $30.277 oz--                                   --19.50...............................15.559
Copper $3.6525--                                     --3.394................................2.8255
Brent crude $111.27 per barrel--               --110.90..............................57.55
WTI Oil $91.82 per barrel--                       --98.61................................53.27
Gasoline $2.7617 gallon, NY Harbor--         --2.7908..............................1.4721
Natural gas $3.351--                                --4.252.................................2.889
Heating oil $ $3.0318 Gallon --                 --3.07...................................1.8336
Wheat $778.00 bushel--                            --605.25...............................589.75
Orange Juice $1.1735--                            --1.3920................................1.3980
Corn $6.9825 bushel--                             --4.22....................................3.97
Soybeans $1409.50--                              --1,292.50..............................1023.50
Lumber $375.10--                                   --369.20.................................328.20
10 yr treasury $99.28--                           --97.953.................................
Euro $1.3197--                                        --1.3756 ...............................1.2096
Canadian dollar $.992--                            --94.144................................85.97
Yen $86.72 --                                          --105.314..............................83.49
Live cattle $132.30--                                --134.70...............................163.55
Lean hogs $85.725--                                 --85.625...............................81.20

Coal.........................................................57.50.................................49.87

Three year numbers of the indexes