time to save 10%

[bimetalaupt]

Make the turn to long term net asset growth.
Reduce risk with better risk management.
Save more and risk less.. The savers will kill Obama and inflation!

Call this the savers paradox. Paradoxical ever dollar saved will lower spending on Japan and Chinese stuff but increase M3. M3 will increase plant long-term development. Improve productivity!
Just a thought,
BiMetalAuPt

[Ombud]

So are you suggesting to save 10% percent in a savings account are you suggesting to invest 10 percent your net income? I invest 10% automatically each month in addition to my Roth

Not sure I want to put it into savings @ .01% (.20% @ USAA) & not fond of bonds right now

[bimetalaupt]

Aug 21, 2013 21:46:24 GMT -5 Ombud said:

So are you suggesting to save 10% percent in a savings account are you suggesting to invest 10 percent your net income? I invest 10% automatically each month in addition to my Roth

Not pe want to put it into savings @ .01% (.20% @ USAA) & not fond of bonds right now

I have posted the 50/50.system for over ten years. Start with savings,true but read more on the efficient frontier. Personally I use an aggressive balancer system art,oil and land addded. I had started with addition bonds during 1999 and sold high or stocks with the higher pe then growth.

By the way bonds make more money the longer term...it is all about increased risk.Read increased beta. Higher normally with standard deviation advance.

[bimetalaupt]

Aug 21, 2013 21:46:24 GMT -5 Ombud said:

So are you suggesting to save 10% percent in a savings account are you suggesting to invest 10 percent your net income? I invest 10% automatically each month in addition to my Roth

Not sure I want to put it into savings @ .01% (.20% @ USAA) & not fond of bonds right now

By the way...I had been saving. Half my net for years before retirement. About risk, being too conservative also is risky.
If you do not like tbonds as most do it must be time to take a look. The rebancer system takes balls to work..check out DUK also.

Sharpe did good work on risk vs return.

Just a thought,
BiMetalaupt

[Ombud]

When working for government, I saved 1/2 my gross. Now it's just Roth + 10% of gross to investments.

Still favor dividend paying stocks over bonds. Guess I should read up on them

[Ombud]

DUK??

[bimetalaupt]

Aug 22, 2013 23:09:17 GMT -5 Ombud said:

DUK??

DUK = Duke Energy
Dividend stock..
Growth about 4% + yield 4.7%=8.7% total
S&P has used 60 stocks +40% bonds as a bit better return the 50/50 with only a little greater S.D. (risk).
Did you look up efficant frontier?

[bimetalaupt]

Aug 22, 2013 23:09:17 GMT -5 Ombud said:

DUK??

Ombud,

Both the rebancer system. 60/40 & 50/50 are trading systems. Today I am out of balance also but do not see any rush as reported before.

Looking for 5% ten year tNote to reenter.

[bimetalaupt]

Aug 22, 2013 22:53:44 GMT -5 Ombud said:

When working for government, I saved 1/2 my gross. Now it's just Roth + 10% of gross to investments.

Still favor dividend paying stocks over bonds. Guess I should read up on them

ombud
Sorry to hear about your mother's passing. Bless you and yours.

Kash is King. Like Cramer has drilled over and over ...keep a reserve of Kash for better prices. I will bet you know the Grand mother story about the savers bank account and AT&T stock. What a market timer.

God bless,
BiMetalaupt

[Ombud]

Here's how I do it and I am always looking for input. Based on a seminar at Schwab, I do the Core / Explore methodology. Then following www.ipers.org/calcs/AssetAllocator.html guidelines, I'm trying for:

• 53% stock
• 27% bonds
• 20% cash

Or so that's the plan. Need to find bonds. Or at least understand them better because in reality I am:

Core: 95% [5% too much]

• 14% SPY -- limit order in to bring it up to 20%
• 13% SCHD [dividend]
• 5% SCHA [sm cap] 
• 5% SCHF [international]
• 15% BUFBX [not sure why I hold onto a mutual fund - 1/2 stock; 1/2 bond] 
• 2% BOND
• 41% CDs / CASH [CD ave = 5% maturing by 2016], this is where that 6% addition to SPY will come from + 5% should be in individual stocks

Explore: 5% [5% too light]

• AFL [value] 1.7%
• ___ [value] 1.5%
• DIS [growth] 1.7%
• JCI [growth] 1.6%
• ___ [sm cap] 1.5%
• ___ [other] 2%

I had those individual stocks but they [T, GLT, BSX] crossed my stops recently

[bimetalaupt]

Go go go...

[Ombud]

Looking at DUK for a value stock. People will ALWAYS need utilities even if solar does take off

[The Virginian]

Now is a good time to buy DUK - It has been beaten down by rising Bond Yields lately ( The Thinking goes because these guys issue bonds they are more sensitive to rate rises - maybe true in short term but long term they adjust and so do the profits) So any way buy them while they are down - A great long term holding ! Great Dividends, Great long term growth ! ( They Have Captive customers - can't get much better than that ! )

[Deleted]

Our personal opinion at this time is - Folks should increase their cash percentage. They should think back to the period when you could get 6 Month CD's for 7% APY and in some places 10 to 14% on periods ranging from 1 to 5 years.

Over the past 5 years everyone has seen what has happened to the Interest rates. Easy Money has driven the flight to safety; which further decimated % rates.

The Direct result of that was that bond prices skyrocketed and Yields went right into the shitter. The Fed has exacerbated the issue by keeping FED Rates low, which has pretty much hobbled the Dollar..

The Result of this? Stocks started to take off in early 2009, as rates really started south (thanks to the Crash & the FED).
Since March 2009 a very interesting thing has been happening - Bond Prices & Stock Prices have been going up pretty much in lockstep - this should make folks wonder & question...

Why?? Because, Stocks and Bonds typically move in Opposite directions by and large.. Dollar Weakens Stocks Rise, Bonds Fall --- Dollar Strengthens Bonds Rise, Stocks Fall...

Strength In the Dollar indicates the potential for inflation. Weakness in the Dollar indicates the potential for deflation...

Interesting thing - Bond Prices have been running up to and around all time highs, and Stock Prices have been doing the same ...
But Yields have been diving down to and around all time lows...

This then created a paradox - It was riskier to put money into Bonds, and safer to put money into stocks...
YET folks kept buying Bonds - driving up prices and driving down Yields... Add in Uber Low FED rates.... Can anyone say set up to a near perfect storm

I know we probably sound stupid at this point; However Look at the last 2 weeks...

Just the talk (and the very real chance of FED rates coming up, even if only slightly over the next year) of the FED backing down from it's current game...
Caused a spike in the Dollar, which caused a dive in BOTH Bonds and Stocks..
Bond Outflow numbers show the impact on the bond market ---- The Drop in Equity prices, which is backed by the Indices Numbers show the impact on Stocks...

And here is one more bit of evidence to support our stance (Investors who have been in the game for a good long while should know this chapter & verse - My Grandfather said it was one of the most important things I needed to know)

UTILITIES - Typically the stalwart, the best sector long term for dividends. Typically tend to increase, Hold steady.
Typically the MOST INTEREST RATE SENSITIVE.... Typically the hardest hit in a rising rate scenario...

This Sector has been the #1 or #2 worst performing sector for the better part of the past 2 weeks...

A Stronger Dollar and Rising rates hit this sector hard.. And the mere thought or mention of a possibly strengthening Dollar and rates rising - is enough to start a major slide within the sector...

Just something to think about...

[Ombud]

Utilities would clearly belong with the core holdings at this time. I'm currently limiting my core holdings to ETF indexes modifying it to be a little more to dividends / small cap / non-USA. I'm looking for individual stocks with spice

What concerns me is that I'm 41% cash. Yes, 20% is CDs averaging 5% but I'm 21% straight cash. Never been this cash heavy before

[bimetalaupt]

Aug 24, 2013 19:52:23 GMT -5 Ombud said:

Utilities would clearly belong with the core holdings at this time. I'm currently limiting my core holdings to ETF indexes modifying it to be a little more to dividends / small cap / non-USA. I'm looking for individual stocks with spice

What concerns me is that I'm 41% cash. Yes, 20% is CDs averaging 5% but I'm 21% straight cash. Never been this cash heavy before

Ombud
Well,rebancer means selling your winners and buying your loaders. I need bonds or zero beta ..DUK fills this asset class with a beta of 0.07.

Etc have. Added cost. Compound the number at 8%.the. add your cost to 8%,compound again. ?
ETF are nice but nice at a cost but less then funds. Cost for Hedge Funds are out of sight, bimetalaupt

[bimetalaupt]

Aug 24, 2013 19:52:23 GMT -5 Ombud said:

Utilities would clearly belong with the core holdings at this time. I'm currently limiting my core holdings to ETF indexes modifying it to be a little more to dividends / small cap / non-USA. I'm looking for individual stocks with spice

What concerns me is that I'm 41% cash. Yes, 20% is CDs averaging 5% but I'm 21% straight cash. Never been this cash heavy before

Era.make DUK a bond type asset. Me bad

[Ombud]

I get that about ETFs but if I think about ME controlling 100% of my portfolio 100% of the time, I'm out of my comfort zone. So I'm trying to reorganize my thinking into Core / Explore. The core I may never utilize, so it's perfect in 4 ETFs. That's my kids inheritance. The explore I'll use in 10+ years. So I want individual stocks. I looked up the efficient investor and also agree with the basic philosophy that I've read there. (Book on order) My core vs explore ratio is probably off, I inadvertently did it on the dollar amount and then recognize that it was actually split on a very low %

And yes, I need more education. I'm not a newbie but as always had a certain portion of my portfolio in mutual funds (457). Which means a portion of it has always been managed elsewhere

[bimetalaupt]

Aug 24, 2013 20:46:54 GMT -5 Ombud said:

I get that about ETFs but if I think about ME controlling 100% of my portfolio 100% of the time, I'm out of my comfort zone. So I'm trying to reorganize my thinking into Core / Explore. The core I may never utilo
Ombudize, so it's perfect in 4 ETFs. That's my kids inheritance. The explore I'll use in 10+ years. So I want individual stocks. I looked up the efficient investor and also agree with the basic philosophy that I've read there. (Book on order) My core vs explore ratio is probably off, I inadvertently did it on the dollar amount and then recognize that it was actually split on a very low %

And yes, I need more education. I'm not a newbie but as always had a certain portion of my port

folio in mutual funds (457). Which means a portion of it has always been managed elsewhere

Ombud,
Yes,to rebancer or rebalance is to be 100% of the time out of your comfort zone..you see you winners and buy your loosers. Think of my calls sellings. Bonds in 2008!! And risking 100% cash reserves in 2009 (3-2009). I did increase income from the 50/50 system by. 21%. Also bet on small caps. In my 403b.All of this and more was done against the market. WXYZ and others said I was too aggresive using system of reballing Lehman Brothers.

I do enjoy heafing the down days with buy when the experts say sell. Bet on red 100% play has made me money in my high risk extra fund. 100% now in Europe growth . Risk yes but this is money made with extra income.
I also like seeing my money help my ownly son. I try to keep my promise to my late wife to be there when need. Yes I have been single foe some 26 years.

[bimetalaupt]

Aug 24, 2013 11:41:30 GMT -5 The Virginian said:

Now is a good time to buy DUK - It has been beaten down by rising Bond Yields lately ( The Thinking goes because these guys issue bonds they are more sensitive to rate rises - maybe true in short term but long term they adjust and so do the profits) So any way buy them while they are down - A great long term holding ! Great Dividends, Great long term growth ! ( They Have Captive customers - can't get much better than that ! )

Mr V.
I just took a nibble bit. Looking for ten year tNote to five percent. Wealth management sucks. I do agree with anxiety of management problems. It is problematic.

Bimetalaupt

[bimetalaupt]

Aug 24, 2013 13:02:33 GMT -5 @di said:

Our personal opinion at this time is - Folks should increase their cash percentage. They should think back to the period when you could get 6 Month CD's for 7% APY and in some places 10 to 14% on periods ranging from 1 to 5 years.

Over the past 5 years everyone has seen what has happened to the Interest rates. Easy Money has driven the flight to safety; which further decimated % rates.



The Direct result of that was that bond prices skyrocketed and Yields went right into the shitter. The Fed has exacerbated the issue by keeping FED Rates low, which has pretty much hobbled the Dollar..

The Result of this? Stocks started to take off in early 2009, as rates really started south (thanks to the Crash & the FED).
Since March 2009 a very interesting thing has been happening - Bond Prices & Stock Prices have been going up pretty much in lockstep - this should make folks wonder & question...

Why?? Because, Stocks and Bonds typically move in Opposite directions by and large.. Dollar Weakens Stocks Rise, Bonds Fall --- Dollar Strengthens Bonds Rise, Stocks Fall...

Strength In the Dollar indicates the potential for inflation. Weakness in the Dollar indicates the potential for deflation...

Interesting thing - Bond Prices have been running up to and around all time highs, and Stock Prices have been doing the same ...
But Yields have been diving down to and around all time lows...

This then created a paradox - It was riskier to put money into Bonds, and safer to put money into stocks...
YET folks kept buying Bonds - driving up prices and driving down Yields... Add in Uber Low FED rates.... Can anyone say set up to a near perfect storm

I know we probably sound stupid at this point; However Look at the last 2 weeks...

Just the talk (and the very real chance of FED rates coming up, even if only slightly over the next year) of the FED backing down from it's current game...
Caused a spike in the Dollar, which caused a dive in BOTH Bonds and Stocks..
Bond Outflow numbers show the impact on the bond market ---- The Drop in Equity prices, which is backed by the Indices Numbers show the impact on Stocks...

And here is one more bit of evidence to support our stance (Investors who have been in the game for a good long while should know this chapter & verse - My Grandfather said it was one of the most important things I needed to know)

UTILITIES - Typically the stalwart, the best sector long term for dividends. Typically tend to increase, Hold steady.
Typically the MOST INTEREST RATE SENSITIVE.... Typically the hardest hit in a rising rate scenario...

This Sector has been the #1 or #2 worst performing sector for the better part of the past 2 weeks...

A Stronger Dollar and Rising rates hit this sector hard.. And the mere thought or mention of a possibly strengthening Dollar and rates rising - is enough to start a major slide within the sector...

Just something to think about...

Di ,We raised cash in May. Do you recall my sell in May call byMMXIII? Loooking for high beta in Oct. May do more qqq. Or see what Chuck has???

How is the book?

Bimetalaupt

[Ombud]

So when I raised cash in May, it wasn't a mistake? Comparing ED vs DUK tomorrow.

[Ombud]

I'm not trying to be sarcastic but I read somewhere that if you're out of the market for the best 10 days, you give up over half the gains.

[bimetalaupt]

Aug 24, 2013 23:00:29 GMT -5 Ombud said:

I'm not trying to be sarcastic but I read somewhere that if you're out of the market for the best 10 days, you give up over half the gains.

Ombud,

Mistake to take money off the table? Never..I was told by aunts boy friend one of the best traders I have ever met. He always sold too soon.

ED 4.1.+ 2.5%.growth = 6.6% total
DUK 4.7 + 4.0 growth = 8.7 % total
But HD 2.00+14.5% growth = 16.5% total
Now make chart from beta -0.09,0.04&.99 with return . This is know as cCAPMm.

Best of luck!,
Bimetalaupt

Ps but they are the ten worst for bonds..give and take... I did 80 bonds 20% day or swing trade before buying 100 stock. This was only high risk trade account. Yes the top ten days but most were at flex points or 3rd derivatives of position. Great point and you will catch this with reballing system.

[clarkrl2]

Aug 24, 2013 23:00:29 GMT -5 Ombud said:

I'm not trying to be sarcastic but I read somewhere that if you're out of the market for the best 10 days, you give up over half the gains.

Of course that assumes you're out on only the best 10 days. It's a meaningless statistic. However, anytime you're out during a period when the market rises you likely lost out on some potential gains. Likewise, anytime you're out during a decline you likely preserved some capital.

[bimetalaupt]

Aug 25, 2013 0:35:48 GMT -5 clarkrl2 said:

Aug 24, 2013 23:00:29 GMT -5 Ombud said:

I'm not trying to be sarcastic but I read somewhere that if you're out of the market for the best 10 days, you give up over half the gains.

Of course that assumes you're out on only the best 10 days. It's a meaningless statistic. However,



anytime you're out during a period when the market rises you likely lost out on some potential gains. Likewise, anytime you're out during a decline you likely preserved some capital.

Well this may be true. But if you always bet on red you gave about a five percent advantage over the house. That is if three doubles are in your 50/50 betting game.
Of you check all ten happned when the market was oversold..stocks not bonds..the ,50/50 renounced system made you sell bond and buy stocks in the red. I E buy against the market. Ask WXYZ we have posted buyer calls in the darkest days for stocks.

Check out our posted output pages esp buy and relative values models,
Just a thought,
Bimetalaupt

Ps. Most of the systems that support liquity make money..50/50 rebancer does both for bonds and stocks. Bond market is twice as big as the stock market. OTC deritive market is out of reachfor me. ETF make money for the brokers!!!

[Deleted]

Ombud -

RE: #22 -
Losing money is easy, recovering it is harder. For every $1 you lose you need to make $2 just to get even & $3 to book a profit.
If the things you hold that have lost money are things individually that folks have decided not to like or in a sector that folks have decided to shy away from; seeing the recovery to a point prior to the ding will be harder; typically a lot harder.

RE: #21 - In Our opinion no. Conservative call back in May. But Conservative is not a bad thing.

And right now there are several things a foot that could make things tricky for the next couple of months.
#1) The September FED meeting. The FED is divided on the Taper & Rates. This is putting pressure on Interest Rate sensitive Sectors and Stocks.

#2) Options Roll Over Months {Sept., Oct., Nov.} Long Term L.E.A.P.s roll from 2015's to 2016's - Interim L.E.A.P.s roll from 2014's to 2015's.
The Option Market has {and does have} the power to move the market at large. Get enough Options Action in a Major Weight Equity and it does have the power to move the stock underlying the Options Contract.
The Move may seem small by Options Trading Standards, but the Result in the Open Market can be outsized.

Bimetal - Our Calls for folks to watch ?  Monthly Payers like SDIV, PFF, PCEF. There are a few others that are of interest but We are going to hold off naming them right yet..

The 3 Mentioned cover World Dividends, Preferred Stock & Closed End Funds.. PFF has set several new 52 Week lows in the last 2 weeks.. SDIV is near the listed low.. PCEF is in it's range..
If someone was to want to jump on any of those right now - Our call would be to Buy in, Set up D.R.I.P.s - walk away for 3 months; come back review them - if compelled make another buy; Walk away for 3 months Review; Do the same for the next 18 months..

[Ombud]

Aug 25, 2013 12:38:26 GMT -5 @di said:

Ombud -

RE: #22 -
Losing money is easy, recovering it is harder. For every $1 you lose you need to make $2 just to get even & $3 to book a profit.
If the things you hold that have lost money are things individually that folks have decided not to like or in a sector that folks have decided to shy away from; seeing the recovery to a point prior to the ding will be harder; typically a lot harder.

Yeah. That's why I try to keep to my %s in a certain range although it fluctuates day-to-day.

In Our opinion no. Conservative call back in May. But Conservative is not a bad thing.

Last year I tried "sell in May and go away," that didn't work. This year I just wound up cash heavy

And right now there are several things a foot that could make things tricky for the next couple of months.
#1) The September FED meeting. The FED is divided on the Taper & Rates. This is putting pressure on Interest Rate sensitive Sectors and Stocks. .... Our call would be to Buy in, Set up D.R.I.P.s - walk away for 3 months; come back review them - if compelled make another buy; Walk away for 3 months Review; Do the same for the next 18 months..

So I've got a limit order in on SPY or doesn't it matter as I intend to hold it for a LONG LONG time?? WDYT? I'm kinda thinking I should just finish rebalancing and complete divesting my BUFBX once the market recovers -- say mid to late October

[Ombud]

bimetalaupt, Thanks re: mom. I tried to settle estate rapidly & did discuss with everyone how it would only cover 1 funeral. Guess they forgot & now want a trip out of it. Not happening

[clarkrl2]

Aug 25, 2013 0:50:13 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

Aug 25, 2013 0:35:48 GMT -5 clarkrl2 said:

Of course that assumes you're out on only the best 10 days. It's a meaningless statistic. However,



anytime you're out during a period when the market rises you likely lost out on some potential gains. Likewise, anytime you're out during a decline you likely preserved some capital.

Well this may be true. But if you always bet on red you gave about a five percent advantage over the house. That is if three doubles are in your 50/50 betting game.
Of you check all ten happned when the market was oversold..stocks not bonds..the ,50/50 renounced system made you sell bond and buy stocks in the red. I E buy against the market. Ask WXYZ we have posted buyer calls in the darkest days for stocks.

Check out our posted output pages esp buy and relative values models,
Just a thought,
Bimetalaupt

Ps. Most of the systems that support liquity make money..50/50 rebancer does both for bonds and stocks. Bond market is twice as big as the stock market. OTC deritive market is out of reachfor me. ETF make money for the brokers!!!

It's hard for me to comment on this because I don't think you understand my comment and I am not 100% sure what is the point of you're comment. If you're saying a good time to add to stocks is when the stock market is down (oversold) then I would agree. I also agree that following a defined asset allocation like 50% stocks and 50% bonds limits risk.

I stand by my comment that the statement in Ombud's post is a meaningless statistic.