Trading Ideas or Investments for Shorter Time Frame

[clarkrl2]

Sold SRI(Stoneridge Inc.) @$15.72 for a loss of 15.0% in three months.

[clarkrl2]

Sold REMX (Rare Earth Metals ETF) @17.19 for a loss of 1.8% in three weeks. The 5-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA.

Bought GM (General Motors) @34.33 based on the 5-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA.

Bought TECD (Tech Data Corp.) @99.06 based from the earnings beat MRQ with recent upward estimate revisions screen.

[clarkrl2]

Sold CONN (Conns Inc.) @$19.25 for a gain of 22.6% in less than three weeks. Four of my ten positions were retailers and looking at Zacks data its hard to get a end of 2018 target of more than $18 for this stock. Using Portfolio123 data you get closer to $30. The other three retailers (RCKY, BGFV, and MIK) are losers at this point. Conventional wisdom says to let your winners run but in this case taking profit on the winner seemed to make more sense.

[clarkrl2]

bought AMG (Affiliated Management Group) from the earning beat MRQ with recent upward estimate revisions screen @ $162.60 per share.

[clarkrl2]

Sold MIK (The Michaels Companies) @18.66 for a loss of 15.2% in about four months. This was bought based on an earnings beat in the MRQ with upward estimate revision. Last quarter was an earnings miss and the estimates were lowered.

[clarkrl2]

Bought GILD (Gilead Sciences Inc.) @$70.96 based on the fundamentals listed below using a 5-day SMA crossing above the 200-day SMA. 

screen criteria without the moving averages
PE<15
price to free cash flow <10
yield > 2
market cap > 500 million

[clarkrl2]

Sold CSCO (Cisco Systems) @30.83 for a profit of 16.3% in 14 months. The 5-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA yesterday.

[clarkrl2]

Bought AMCX (AMC Networks) @56.50 from the earnings beat MRQ with recent upward estimate revisions screen.

[clarkrl2]

Sold BGFV (Big 5 Sporting Goods) for a loss of 35.2% in three months. I really mismanaged this position. The screen kept telling me it was a buy but the charts kept saying sell. The earnings report last week confirmed it was a sell.

[clarkrl2]

Bought PERY (Ellis Perry) @$22.40 from the earnings beat MRQ with recent upward estimate revisions screen. They are based in Miami so they may be affected by the hurricane for the short term. finance.yahoo.com/quote/PERY?p=PERY

[clarkrl2]

Sold TECD (Tech Data Corp.) @$86.70 for a loss of 12.5% in fifteen weeks. They missed on earnings a couple of weeks ago and the guidance wasn't very good. I waited for a dead cat bounce but that cat wasn't bouncing high enough or quick enough to suit me.

Sold AMCX (AMC Networks) @$59.10 for a gain of 4.6% in nine weeks. The estimates for next year was lowered plus there has been a recent exodus of some of their creative talent. Also the recent viewer numbers wasn't very impressive.

[clarkrl2]

Sold RCKY (Rocky Brands Inc.) @17.01 for a gain of 13.4% in a little over 5 months. It has continued to rise but I thought it was hard to justify that price.

[clarkrl2]

Bought ADS (Alliance Data Systems Corp.) @$227.50 from the earnings beat MRQ with recent upward estimate revisions screen.

[clarkrl2]

wxyz some of what you ask for is just not going to happen but I will try to post some % return results in the near future.

With commissions at less than $5 per trade, I really don't think that is too much of an issue but a few years ago I calculated my expenses based on the value of the portfolio and it was less than the expenses on my American Fund in my retirement account. When you started investing brokerage fees were likely much more of an issue than they are now with the discount online brokerages. When I post the returns on this thread I do not include the fees and expenses but I also don't include the dividends received. Since I rarely buy a stock that doesn't have positive earnings almost all of them pay at least a small dividend. Those dividends more than pay for trading costs.

I remember sometime in the mid-seventies a friend of mine was working in the summer in the construction of a nearby WalMart. His dad was President of a local bank and suggested we and some other friends might want to go together and use some of our summer earnings to by some WalMart stock. Of course in retrospect that would have been a wise decision but I remember one of the things that put me off the idea was the high broker fee. I can't remember what it was but it seems like it would have cost something like $50 to buy $500 worth of stock. 

[clarkrl2]

bought VDE (Vanguard Energy ETF) @$92. The 5-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA. This ETF is heavily weighted to the major oil companies including Chevron and Exxon.

[clarkrl2]

The adjusted return adds any withdrawals to the closing balance or subtracts any to deposits from the closing balance. Note: I only had withdrawals during this period.

year      adj. ret.     % withdrawal  net ret.

2012      -2.4%            28.0%         -30.3%

2013      43.3%           16.2%           27.0%

2014      -8.4%             6.1%            -8.4%

2015       4.8%              0.0%             4.8%

2016      11.2%             8.5%             2.7%

2017*    14.0%             0.0%           14.0%

* YTD through the end of Oct.

These returns are basically useless to compare to anything. As you can see I frequently have withdrawals from the account over the course of the years reported. Also this is the aggregate return of all investments in the account.

For example: In the Oct. 2017 statement I was invested 65.8% equities, 7.5% fixed income, and 26.7% cash. This will vary from month to month. It would be almost impossible to make adjustments to compare my returns to an index because I almost always keep a cash balance and non-equity investments.

[clarkrl2]

bought NGHC (National General Holding Corp.) from the earnings beat MRQ with recent upward estimate revisions screen.

[clarkrl2]

Sold NGHC (National General Holdings Corp.) @19.83 for a loss of 6.7% in about six weeks. I bought this from the upward estimate revisions screen and after their last report, the earnings estimates have been taken down. I swapped this for VOX.

Bought VOX (Vanguard Telecom etf) @91.25. The 5-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA recently. The etf holdings are about 50% AT&T and Verizon. I will hold until the 5-day SMA crosses below the 200-day SMA.

[clarkrl2]

Sold AMG (Affiliated Managers Group) @198.67 on Friday for a gain of 22.6% in 28 weeks. This was from the earnings beat MRQ with recent upward estimate revisions screen. Lately the stock has had some downward revisions so I sold the position.

[clarkrl2]

sold VOX (telecom etf) @90 for a loss of 1.4% in three weeks. The 5-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA yesterday.

[clarkrl2]

bought HBI (Hanesbrands Inc.) @$22 from the 5-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA screen. The 5 is barely above the 200 so it won't take much of a decline to trigger a sell.

[clarkrl2]

Bought CNC (Centene Corp.) @$107 from the earnings beat MRQ with recent upward estimate revisions screen. I put in a limit order last Friday and didn't think it would fill but the announcement of the Amazon, Berkshire, JP Morgan venture probably helped knock the price down.

[clarkrl2]

sold HBI (HanesBrands) @21.10 for a loss of 4.1% in two weeks. This was bought on the 5-day SMA crossing above the 200-day SMA. Now the condition has reversed so the position was sold. I guess people aren't celebrating the tax cut boon with new underwear.

[clarkrl2]

Bought LM (Legg Mason) yesterday @$38.75 from the earnings beat most recent quarter with recent upward estimate revisions screen.

[clarkrl2]

Sold PERY (Perry Ellis International) @$26.75 for a gain of 19.4% in a little less than six months. There is a buyout offer for $27.50 which is being considered but the current price is only 2.8% below the offer.

[clarkrl2]

bought PRU (Prudential) @$110. The 5-day SMA just crossed back above the 200-day SMA. I intend to hold until the situation reverses.

This trade was filled on Tue. Feb. 27, I am probably going to close this one today.

[clarkrl2]

Sold PRU (Prudential Financial) @$105 for a loss of 4.5% in 3 days. I really don't like trading out of a position this quick but the plan was to sell if the 5-day SMA fell below the 200-day SMA. At least I was able to take advantage of a little rebound on Friday.

[clarkrl2]

Sold GM (General Motors) @$37.50 for a gain of about 9.2% in about nine months. The 5-day crossed below the 200-day SMA on Tuesday but I didn't sell until today.

[clarkrl2]

bought HZNP (Horizon Pharmaceuticals) @$15.50. This is my second venture into this stock. The first one did not end well. This was from the earnings beat MRQ with recent upward estimate revisions screen.

bought LIT (etf Lithium and Battery Tech) @35.66 from the 5-day SMA cross above the 200-day SMA screen. I plan to hold until the situation reverses.

[clarkrl2]

Sold LIT (etf Lithium and Battery Tech) @33.35 for a loss of about 6.5% in two weeks. The 5-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA late last week but I was on the road so I didn't get the sell order in until yesterday.