Trading Ideas or Investments for Shorter Time Frame

[clarkrl2]

Sold MET @41 for a gain of 5.7%.

[clarkrl2]

The F trade lasted 16 weeks and the MET trade lasted 7 weeks.

In the last two days HDSN was up about 15% on no news I could find. Today HZNP was down about 10% and the only article I could find was where the average consensus target was lowered.

[tyfighter3]

No news is good news, any news is bad news.

[clarkrl2]

bought GNW (Genworth Financial) @4.75. It's up more than 4% at the time of this post but they will likely need better interest rates over the longer term.

[clarkrl2]

Bought TSO (Tesoro Corporation) @81

[clarkrl2]

Sold XRT which is a retail store etf @ $42.91. I bought this 7/13/16 when the 5 sma crossed above the 200 sma. Its not moved much and the 5 was getting close to the 200 so I went ahead and sold. This was a loss of 2.5%.
I'm not finding a lot of buys right now. I think the charts of SPY and IWM are beginning to break down. Here is the weekly chart of IWM stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IWM&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p70200384994 and the weekly chart for SPY stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p20175466138 I was fully invested going into today so I may make some more sells over the next few days.
On a happier note HDSN was really rocking and rolling today. Here is the daily chart for HDSN stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HDSN&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p32144436453

[clarkrl2]

sold HDSN (Hudson Technologies) at $7.42 for a gain of 48.4% in about 5 months. There was a stock offering and the price was announced at $7/share. Even though I think the stock should be fine as soon as this offering works itself into the market, this represents such a large percentage of the float I wanted to go ahead and take my profit.

As the election talk started creating a lot of inexplicable volatility, I avoided trading in and out of my current holdings. I will likely start exiting some of the positions that I'm no longer as bullish on.

[clarkrl2]

Since I started tracking trades on this thread:
The longest holding period has been PRE 324 calendar days from 4/29/2015 to 3/18/2016
The shortest holding period has been GM 8 calendar days from 4/25/2016 to 5/3/2016
The largest gain has been ISLE 129.3%
The worst loss has been ESI -28.1%
The average holding period has been 87 calendar days
The average gain has been 4.4%
That calculates to an average annual gain of 18.27%
It’s hard to find comparative data for a point of reference because I didn’t make my first trade using this screening method until Apr. 3, 2013. It was many days into the thread before I was anywhere near fully invested which I consider to be 10 positions, but here are some popular ETF returns which I have annualize to allow for easier comparisons:
IWM 14.0% (annualized)
SPY 12.4% (annualized)
QQQ 20.3% (annualized)
I prefer comparing myself to the IWM because it represents the Russell 2000. Most of the stocks I pick with this method are in the market cap range of the Russell 2000.
Currently I am holding eight of a maximum ten positions. UIS is the largest gainer at 60.0% and the largest loser is QVCA at -22.2%. Almost all of the 75 completed trades were from the screening method described in the original post, however, I added three positions GM(closed), CSCO, and TSO screening for stocks that had recently crossed above the 200-day sma. This screen was a collaborative effort including former posters yclept and rovo with several criteria to look for solid dividend payers with a change in sentiment. I also added a ETFs IWM(closed), XRT(closed), XLF based on a cross of the 200 day sma.
I will try to do another update after 100 trades have been completed.

[clarkrl2]

Bought SWKS (Skyworks Solutions) @$76 from the revised earnings beat MRQ with recent upward estimate revisions screen.

[clarkrl2]

Sold UIS (Unisys Corporation) @15.5 for a gain of 56.6%.

[clarkrl2]

Bought WTW (Weightwatchers) @11.25.

[clarkrl2]

Bought AYA(Amaya Inc.) @14.25. The chart doesn't look very good on this one but I think it looks undervalued. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AYA&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p44276722529  Using the long term growth estimate of 13.2 as a multiplier and earnings of 1.89 for next year according to finviz I came up with a target of near $25. Analysts have their mean target at 20.49.
www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=aya

[clarkrl2]

Sold LEA (Lear Corporation) @$142/sh. for a gain of 23.5% in 9 months.

[clarkrl2]

Sold SWKS @$96 for a gain of 26% in two months.

Sold QVCA @$18.65 for a loss of 30.2% in 8 months. They did not do well on their earnings release this Monday and retailers of any type are out of favor.

[clarkrl2]

At this point in time every company in the equity portion of my portfolio has reported except for AYA (Amaya Inc.)

I sold LEA and SWKS because while their reports were good, I believe I received a fair value.

I sold QVCA because its report was below my expectations and it is underperforming.

I kept GNW (Genworth) because there is a buyout offer on the table which is well above the current price. The deal is expected to close sometime around midyear. From the stock performance I think many investors do not think the deal will go through but I am committed to holding on until I find out for sure.

I kept CSCO (Cisco) and TSO (Tesoro) because I bought these with the intent to hold until the stock and 5-day SMA were below the 200-day SMA. This also applies to the etf XLF (Financial sector) which split into XLF (Financial sector) and XLRE (Reits).

I kept HZNP (Horizon Pharma) because the earnings and forward outlook were good and the stock price is too far below what I think is a fair price.

I kept WTW (Weight Watchers International) because earnings and forward outlook were good. I think it is approaching a fair price but I will need to do some calculations.

I will wait for the earnings release for AYA unless something happens between now and then.

After today's sells I will be holding seven of a maximum ten positions in the equity portion of the portfolio.

[clarkrl2]

Bought MIK (Michaels Companies Inc) from the earnings beat MRQ with recent upward estimate revisions screen.

$22/sh

[clarkrl2]

Bought SRI (Stoneridge Inc.)at $18.50 from the revised earnings beat MRQ with recent upward estimate revisions screen.

[clarkrl2]

Bought IYZ (IShares US Telecom etf) @$33.20 based on the 5-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA.

[clarkrl2]

AYA (Amaya Inc.) reported non GAAP earnings of $.53 which was a little below the Zacks estimate of $.60. The stock did well today so I will analyze further this weekend.

finance.yahoo.com/news/amaya-posts-4q-profit-114440775.html

[clarkrl2]

Sold IYZ @$32.16 for a loss of 3.2% in about a week. The etf was bought when the 5-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA. That situation has now reversed.

[clarkrl2]

Bought GPS (GAP Inc) @$24

Bought NAVI (Navient Corporation) @$14.75

These were both bought on the 5-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA.

[clarkrl2]

Sold TSO (Tesoro Corporation) @$79.08 for a loss of 2.4% in about five months.

Sold GPS (GPS Inc.) @$23.33 for a loss of 2.8% in three days.

Both were bought when the 5-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA. Yesterday the 5-day had crossed below the 200-day so I sold according to plan.

[clarkrl2]

Bought XLE (Energy etf) @$70.25 based on the 5-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA. It is my intention to hold until the condition reverses.

[clarkrl2]

Sold XLE (energy etf) @$67.80 for a loss of 3.5% in one week. This was based on the 5-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA.

[clarkrl2]

Bought KBH (KB Homes) @$19.97. This buy actually occurred yesterday on May 3. This was from the earnings beat MRQ with recent upward estimate revisions screen. They last reported on Mar. 23 so their next report will likely be in late June.

This buy puts me back up to a fully invested 10 positions so I will be looking to exit AYA to raise some cash. AYA missed on their last earnings report but the stock price has actually went up a little. I've been intending to sell before their next earnings which should not be released until June.

[clarkrl2]

Sold AYA (Amaya Inc.) @$17.7 for a gain of 24.2% in 4 months. I sold because they missed on earnings last report which occurred a few weeks ago but I didn't feel any need for urgency since the stock price was doing well.

[clarkrl2]

Bought BGFV (Big Five Sporting Goods) @$14.50 based on the earnings beat MRQ with recent upward estimate revisions screen.

[clarkrl2]

I made several moves today and even though I don't usually like to do more than one buy and one sell on any particular day I felt all these moves were necessary.

Sold HZNP (Horizon Pharmaceuticals) at a loss of 44.6% in seven and a half months. The earnings report Monday was a disaster.

Sold NAVI (Navient Corporation) at a loss of 2.6% a little over a month. This stock was bought after the 5-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA with the intent to sell at the bearish crossover which occurred yesterday.

Sold WTW (Weight Watchers International) for a gain of 116.2% in about four months. I felt the valuation was getting too high plus because of the big loss in HZNP I wanted to raise more cash for additional buys.

Bought RCKY (Rocky Brands)@$15/share. This was bought from the earnings beat MRQ with recent upward estimate revisions screen. I am thinking a twelve month target of about $20/share is reasonable. The average analyst target is $12.50/share according to Finviz so I may be overvaluing it.

[clarkrl2]

Bought REMX (etf Rare Earth Strategic Metals) @$17.5 based on a cross of the 5 day SMA over the 200 day SMA.

[clarkrl2]

Bought CONN (Conn's Inc.) @$15.70. This was from the earnings beat MRQ with recent upward estimate revisions screen.