The Asian Crisis

[bimetalaupt]

A++++,

It has been proven that by 2016 lack of growth will produce a world wide depression and War. We could see almost a 28% drop in stock assets.  Great bonds could reduce the personal risk by 50% 

Just a thought,

Bruce

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

the ,

Every single socioeconomic and geopolitical indicator - outside the USA - points to exactly that!

The world has never - in post war period - had to contend with sustained 2% annual growth out of the USA, while you guys were rebuilding your O&G and manufacturing foundation.



God bless,

[bimetalaupt]

A++++,

Just read this: debt for China = 160% GDP. Sounds like Japan: long term economic downturn now thirty years old.

Just a thought,

BiMetalAuPt

Manage, meddle or magnify? China's corporate debt threat

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Beijing may have averted a crisis in its stock markets with heavy-handed intervention, but the world's biggest corporate debt pile - $16.1 trillion and rising - is a much greater threat to its slowing economy and will not be so easily managed.

Corporate China's debts, at 160 percent of GDP, are twice that of the United States, having sharply deteriorated in the past five years, a Thomson Reuters study of over 1,400 companies shows.

And the debt mountain is set to climb 77 percent to $28.8 trillion over the next five years, credit rating agency Standard & Poor's estimates. [ID:nL4N0ZV68I]

Beijing's policy interventions affecting corporate credit have so far been mostly designed to address a different goal - supporting economic growth, which is set to fall to a 25-year low this year.

It has cut interest rates four times since November, reduced the level of reserves banks must hold and removed limits on how much of their deposits they can lend.

Though it wants more of that credit going to smaller companies and innovative areas of the economy, such measures are blunt instruments.

finance.yahoo.com/news/manage-meddle-magnify-chinas-corporate-012319507.html

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

‎ the ,

‎Yes, I have been reading the plethora of articles that compare  China and Japan. It's hilarious to watch the MSM catch up to what we have been saying around here for YEARS! Eh? 

Some of what they are now missing:

-China is one of the largest countries - by land size‎ - in the entire world. Japan is an island off the coast of China...
-When Japan's depression started their IMF estimated savings rate was half of what China's is‎ right now.
-Japan was on the wrong side during WW2, this time around China will be leading the war as no other army on earth has come close to stopping Islamic fascism. Why? Size and desperation. There are hundreds of millions of hungry Chinese people - just like there were hundreds of thousands of hungry North Americans ‎during WW2.
-China is eyeing all of Russia's eastern resources and they are also spearheadeding development across all of Asia - connecting Asia and Europe like never before. They are creating an out for themselves which Japan couldn't even come close to matching. It will take time, but the bank has been created and guess what the new Marshall plan is going to end up funding? 

We could see almost a 28% drop in stock assets.  Great bonds could reduce the personal risk by 50% 

This is shaping up to ‎be a wise move as it's hard to image elsewhere people will park their cash when things get dicy. Of course around here we have one utility - and will continue to for the foreseeable future - so a 25 year contract starting at around 5% with a 2% guaranteed annual increase would kick the crap out of any bond for income.... Just a factoid. 

Hope you had a good weekend. God Bless.

A++++&Co.

[bimetalaupt]

Big demand for Gold in China: What are the gold dealers smoking?

SYDNEY (Reuters) - The U.S dollar held broad gains in Asia on Monday as investors looked ahead to higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve, while gold slumped to five-year lows as a lack of global inflation left little to hedge against.

The precious metal (XAU=) ran into a wave of selling in Asia that drove it down 3.9 percent to $1,089.80 an ounce, having already suffered its worst weekly performance since March last week.

Activity was light elsewhere with Japan on holiday and a dearth of major data in the diary, leading to a cautious start for stocks

finance.yahoo.com/news/dollar-demand-gold-five-low-002553715.html

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jul 20, 2015 0:23:46 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

Big demand for Gold in China: What are the gold dealers smoking?

Well I can tell you it ain't bud, bud. Opium? Maybe we should ask Damnot, he was saying something about 1500...

The foundation is being laid for this thread to cross with China's War! Stay

China claims Uighur 'on way to jihad'

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

But, but, the Chinese market's have stabilized, right? I wonder if they're mad??

World’s largest hedge fund Bridgewater has turned bearish on China

Bridgewater Associates LP, one of Wall Street’s more outspoken bulls on China, told investors this week that the country’s recent stock-market rout will likely have broad, far-reaching repercussions.

The fund’s executives once had been vocal advocates of China’s potential. But that was before panic in the country’s stock markets shaved a third of the value off Shanghai’s main index, battering hordes of mom-and-pop investors and hedge funds alike, before partially rebounding.

“Our views about China have changed,” Bridgewater’s billionaire founder, Raymond Dalio, wrote with colleagues in a note sent to clients earlier this week. “There are now no safe places to invest.”

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

But, but, but, 7% GDP!!!

China manufacturing hits 15-month low: survey

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

When I read the following article and see the charts outlining the facts of the situation, all I think about is how money was just evaporating out of the financial system in 2008.

Whats going on in China right now - without a doubt - proves in real time that the US housing market mixed with BS debt products was bringing the economy down regardless of intervention by the CB.

Zombies and cannibals: The horrors of China’s financial system, charted

[bimetalaupt]

Jul 26, 2015 23:53:23 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

When I read the following article and see the charts outlining the facts of the situation, all I think about is how money was just evaporating out of the financial system in 2008.

Whats going on in China right now - without a doubt - proves in real time that the US housing market mixed with BS debt products was bringing the economy down regardless of intervention by the CB.

Zombies and cannibals: The horrors of China’s financial system, charted

A++++,

The data from MMXVI-Alpha Black Swan Study is looking more correct all the time. Risk is very high -bat-but lower as world market decline.

Just a thought,

Bruce

MMXVI-ALPHA Black Swan event study
STRESS TEST STUDY 07/24/15
RIDK.................................................... 5462.626875
15 MONTH DJIA PROJECTION................. 21586.0773051149
UPSIDE................................................ 4017.54730511486
DJIA UPSIDE/RISK.................................... 73.5460685316%
djia risk/return.......................................... 1.3596919862139
Highest risk DJIA ................................16123.4504301149
PROF/LOSS PER$1.00.............................. -$0.26454

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

,

It was never a matter of "what if" or a "black swan" in my mind. It was an inevitably. Just like in 2008, there was NOTHING that Ben B. could have done to stop the fall out. It's just like people who own homes in Toronto and Vancouver right now, they believe that things are different for them...

Yes, this is going to be a market event in the USA. Economically, how did the US perform during the last two WW?? How about how the US econ numbers point to a continuing slow and steady recovery?? How about PRIVATE investment in manufacturing being at an all time high - since records have been kept? How about when the mid east completely unravels, WE have all the oil?

Don't forget, this isn't just about RE and stocks, what happens next shapes the future of planet Earth!

[OldCoyote]

Is this the start of the global financial collapse?

www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/27/us-markets-china-stocks-idUSKCN0Q10KE20150727

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jul 27, 2015 11:33:33 GMT -5 OldCoyote said:

Is this the start of the global financial collapse?

www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/27/us-markets-china-stocks-idUSKCN0Q10KE20150727

What has begun is far beyond financial. We here in the west think that because we have separated church and state, that somehow around 5000 yrs of history is irrelevant. It isn't, and we are about to witness first hand how completely relevant Abraham is to our current times.

Stay

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Ah yes, the evaporating money issue because of BS DEBT!

Shenzhen housing market frenzy to cool with tighter mortgage rules

"Rising transactions and soaring prices have not only used up a large amount of [banks' annual lending] quota, but also accumulated some credit risk," said property consultancy Midland Realty in a report.

The big state banks "will probably postpone approvals [for mortgage loans] and increase scrutiny to make sure that loans go to end-user homebuyers with stable debt-servicing capability", it added.

Major lenders in Shenzhen have started to tighten mortgage loans since mid-June.

And some more reality..

Smaller Chinese Cities Miss Housing Recovery

But most of the gains came in the big cities. The smaller cities in China’s interior that make up the bulk of its housing market are still struggling with a buildup of vacant homes and little prospect for improvement as growth weakens and its young people flee...

...The gated Vanke Whistler compound west of Changchun has respectable occupancy rates, but around it are so many unsold apartments that residents occupying the villas and midrise apartments say vagrants have started to come in. The property-management firm built a barbed-wire fence around a pond last winter to prevent intruders from walking across it as it froze over. It makes the area look like a prison, one resident said...

....At Changchun’s Eurasia Shopping Mall, possibly one of the world’s largest, there were more salespeople than shoppers on a floor dedicated to furniture, bathroom and kitchen fixtures. Salespeople said they hadn’t seen any spillover from a small improvement in sales in recent weeks.

“Nothing has changed. It’s still tough,” said a saleswoman at a shop selling kitchen cabinets.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jul 18, 2015 17:16:35 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

The world has never - in post war period - had to contend with sustained 2% annual growth out of the USA, while you guys were rebuilding your O&G and manufacturing foundation.

It would take a miracle for growth to reach 3 percent this year, marking a decade without it

Have fun China!

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Terminal decline? Doubtful. It's the American Renaissance.

Chinese Textile Mills Are Now Hiring in Places Where Cotton Was King

Twenty-five years ago, Ni Meijuan earned $19 a month working the spinning machines at a vast textile factory in the Chinese city of Hangzhou.

Now at the Keer Group’s cotton mill in South Carolina, which opened in April, Ms. Ni is training American workers to do the job she used to do.

Oops, wrong thread.

Here's the one.... 

A key China economic indicator took a sharp turn for the worse, with the final reading for the Caixin China purchasing managers' index (PMI) for July drops to a two-year low.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Kinda puts $3 trillion in reserves into perspective, doesn't it?

China’s stock market stimulus has cost over $1 trillion so far

the government is putting the country’s entire financial system at risk....

...how much money has Beijing actually spent trying to support the markets? Economist and Peking University professor Christopher Balding has tallied it all up, and arrived at an astounding figure—$1.3 trillion....

...That’s more than five times the $247 billion the US government initially spent on the Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, that was used to support financial institutions after the 2008 financial crisis.

The figure doesn’t include other stimulus measures that were rolled out before the June plummet but are surely adding liquidity now. Among them: a series of reserve ratio cuts since December that added $282 billion in liquidity, and the PBOC’s $62 billion capital injection into two state banks in April.

If they were included, Balding said, the tally of total support would be $1.6 trillion.

“That is far and away the largest economic support package in history,” Balding told Quartz. The high level of support raises serious concerns about the state of the Chinese economy overall.

Serious concerns? Really? Talk about the understatement of the year to describe the black hole money vacuum that is China's debt load.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

You know it's a bad sign when China's central bank admits that things are . But that's not going to stop China's Crooked Government From Absolutely Lying About It Economy. In fact - opposite to US economic numbers - China’s economy enters second half of 2015 on weak note.

In fact, China faces deflation as producer prices slide to 6-year low. Which wouldn't be bad on its own, but after pumping over one TRILLION USD into the markets and economy, China bad loan growth is actually accelerating. Yes, a black hole.

China positioning itself as the ‘greatest fool’ in stock market collapse

The end result of “organized support” in the 1930s was that the organizers took a bath. The Chinese government may meet a similar fate.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Ah yes, just like the Asian crisis of the late 90's - a major currency crisis was the canary in the coal mine.

Currency Rout Goes Global as Jen Sees Risk of 50% Loss on China

Just in time for a major escalation in the Ukraine, and the Islamic State to essentially admit that they have so many recruits that it makes more "sense" for British recruits to stay at home and fight there than make the trip.

Lets see here Jubilee years every 7.. So Sept 2015-7.. Sept. 2008.

September 2008-7.. Sept. 2001.

2001-7.. 1994..

1994-7.. 1987.. And so on.. And hey, there is only a once in a millennium celestial event falling in Sept of this year as well.. October is shaping up to be a wild ride into the end of the year. Stay

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Insanity. Pure and simple.

China Intervenes to Support Tumbling Yuan

Central bank steps in after Chinese currency experiences sharp losses following devaluation

A day after China let its currency drop sharply, the government intervened to prop it up, people familiar with the matter said, underscoring Beijing’s tricky task of preventing the yuan from free-falling now that it has tied it more closely to the market’s whims.....

....“With all the efforts to make the economy more market-oriented, the government is introducing more risks into its financial system,” said Zhu Chaoping, China economist at UOB Kay Hian Holdings Ltd., a Singapore-based investment bank. “But whenever it starts to intervene again, it puts its credibility on the line.”

[Artemis Windsong]

I got concerned and sold out 3/4 of my China fund.  My initial investment.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Probably makes sense at this point. Especially because you can leave a nice profit in there to grow long term. Thanks again for piquing my interest in drones last year, Artemis.

Did you end up picking up and NOC?

[tyfighter3]

China has been saying their growth rate is 7% but really closer to 2%. I don't think there is much they can do right now but keep on to devalue their money. The DOW bounced off support today but I don't think it will hold for long. JMO

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I agree, and the funny thing is that even if you take the 7% number as truth, they are still technically in a recession because they are still trying to pull millions out of poverty and we know that takes 10%+ growth to achieve that - per China! HAHA.

Every single freaking economic indicator says that China is shrinking and has been for months. This "recovery" in the Chinese property market is going to be the biggest dead cat bounce in the history of RE.

As far as I'm concerned this currency move signals that the final nail is in the coffin, it just needs to be hammered in. The way the war is spreading into Central Asia - that hammer is about to come down!

Good to see ya back around a bit Ty. I know you have had a lot on your plate for the last while.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

How bout that, EH Ty?

Why China may be on the brink of recession

China, which is supposedly growing by 7% a year, may instead be facing recession. Or it may even have already fallen into one.....

....Fathom’s China Momentum Index suggests China’s GDP is now growing at an annual rate of just 3%. That’s a far cry from the 10%-plus levels seen just a few years ago.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

The swings in Shanghai have gotten so bad that yesterday's 6% drop ain't no thing but a ching wing.

China Stimulus Is Tough to Take Off in Land of Challenges

China’s efforts to jump-start an economic revival are floundering under the weight of local-government debts and slumping land sales, putting pressure on policy makers to unleash fresh stimulus measures.
....
Local governments alone face a debt-service burden of about 1 trillion yuan this year ($156 billion), according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. Revenue from land sales in the first seven months plunged 954 billion yuan from a year earlier, according to the government. Growth in fiscal revenue was 5.4 percent in the first seven months compared with 8.5 percent a year earlier using the same methodology, highlighting pressure on receipts.
....
The severity of the local-authority funding squeeze is especially acute in the northeastern province of Liaoning, where first-half revenue slumped 23 percent, and this month it failed to sell bonds even with coupons 15 percent higher than similar maturity sovereign debt.

“With the decline in land sales in all but a small handful of cities, many localities will have problems servicing debt, much less to finance new construction projects,” said Victor Shih, a professor at the University of California at San Diego who studies China’s politics and finance.

While the central government has put in place a program to swap higher-interest local debt with longer-maturity, lower-cost bonds, that initiative won’t help every region, according to Shih. It “will mainly favor provincial capitals and major cities, leaving smaller cities in deep fiscal distress,” he said.
.....
Plummeting revenue from land sales is unlikely to change in the near future even though housing sales and prices are recovering in big cities, said Zhao Yang, chief China economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong. Oversupply in small cities remains large, and property investment in small cities accounts for more than 70 percent of total property investment, he said.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

But, but, but.. 7% GDP!

Glencore CEO: China Is a Lot Weaker Than Anyone Expected

Glencore reported a 56 percent plunge in first-half profit on Wednesday and cut the earnings forecast for its trading division.

“At the moment none of us can read China,” said the 58-year-old South African who’s the second-largest shareholder in the company. “None of us know what is going on there and I’m yet to find the guy who can predict China correctly.”

...Ah...Ahem!

China in the first half was a lot weaker than anyone expected.

Not everyone PAL!

[tyfighter3]

People just don't look far enough. LOL I've found that if you look at what's in front of your face, it's most likely the truth or not.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Haha.. No doubt!

But why would you want to know about things 18-24 months out? Attention span? I mean we all know that if something doesn't happen within 24 hours - or like RIGHT NOW - it means it's not happening, right?

[tyfighter3]

All you have to do is look at the DOW, S&P. A year ago was the time too raise cash and what is funny is the Market will let you do it over time. How many times did the DOW hit 18000? I can hardly wait to put my cash to work into stocks like XOM, COP, the Majors in Energy. Where I can get 5% or more and the Stock could double over the next 5 years. WIN, WIN even at my age. JMO  But I'm waiting for better prices.