The Asian Crisis

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

To think this is just what the investigation team was able to dig up; then layer on the fraud we already know to have taken place, aka; over stating GDP by a large percentage (double digits).

China May Have $5.8 Trillion in Hidden Debt With ‘Titanic’ Risks

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

A great read outlining the Sino-Japan connection.. only problem is it neglects escape trajectory is OBOR, which has hit a wall of war. Plus, there is the whole civil unrest bubbling under the surface thing. Stay

China’s Economy Is Not Crashing, It’s Worse Than That

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Fraud can only take you so far; eventually there have been so many lies it's impossible to keep to story straight. Stay

China's industrial profits growth slows for fifth month as orders wane

sales of raw materials and manufactured goods further ebbed, pointing to cooling domestic demand in the world’s second-biggest economy.

-China regulator urges Beijing banks not to force liquidation of pledged shares

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Essentially no growing since 2013, and the fraud is everywhere!!

The hidden debt bomb that the Chinese have funded in emerging markets



Debt Bomb Ready to Explode

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

The fraud comes home to roost.

China’s (not) SAFE

In another sign of repeating 2015, the Chinese are beginning to mobilize their “reserves” again. Three years ago, in a futile attempt to staunch CNY’s stubborn “devaluation” various government authorities blew through just about $1 trillion. It didn’t work....

...If you can’t steady your currency with $1 trillion, no one can. Period.

Interesting tidbits:
-Bank Run in Southwestern Chinese City Could Signal a Broader Financial Crisis
-Gone With The Wynn: Melco Earnings Miss After Wynn Warning On Macau, VIP Gambling
-China's Xi tries to reassure the country's worried private companies

Which brings us full circle to the BIG problem; 50m apartments, a fifth of China's homes are empty. Keeping in mind the MASSIVE amount of fraud in the Chinese economy, that 20% is probably a "conservative" estimate. Stay

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

News media is unable to continue to deny, Debt, Not Trade War, Is China's Biggest Problem.. Not surprising due to China is underestimating its US$3 trillion dollar debt. Or was that? Local govt debt of $6tn adds questions about China's financial woes.

In any event, by China doubling down on their fraud in 2015 the only ones they ended up fooling were themselves:

-China's Chain of Debt Guarantees Looms as Systemic Danger
-One of China’s biggest corporate defaulters has scary $10bn plan

Stay

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

While making sure to keep in mind the trade deficit with the US remains stubbornly high, and China just bought a bunch of soy beans while dropping tariffs on automobiles... AKA, China is losing!!

China's industrial profits suffer first drop in three years, piles pressure on economy

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Again, we go to the 2018 earning chart; proving with the following data that China has - in fact - been in a recession since 2013. Piling debt on to create the mirage of a miracle.... you can go on for a long time... stay

-Data showing Chinese manufacturing cooling put Asia stock markets in early hole for 2019
-China's Credit Crunch is a Warning(because they are running out of miracle juice)
-China faces industrial slump as 'credit crunch' deepens in Asia[\b]

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

One hand washes the other..??

-China warns cities to cut reliance on property, developers' shares fall
-Chinese state bank chief warns against buying property now ‘because there’s no money to be made

[tyfighter3]

Plus Apple coming out after the bell how their I-Phones wasn't selling in China. I have a feeling that the Market will be a little down come morning. 

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

And the recognition begins....

Forget the Trade War. China Is Already in Crisis

Car purchases fell last year for the first time in more than two decades. Apple Inc.’s warning in early January that iPhone sales in China were sagging alerted the world to how a slowing Middle Kingdom would drag down global growth and corporate profits. But the locals figured that out a while ago. Even after a recent uptick, the stock market in Shanghai has still plunged by more than a quarter from its 2018 high.....

....A steep and unexpected plunge in imports in December signaled just how sharply the economy is decelerating....

...What goes widely unnoticed is that China is already in crisis. No, it’s not the sort of hold-on-for-dear-life collapse the U.S. had in 2008 or the surprising, ferocious meltdowns the Asian Tiger economies experienced in 1997. Nonetheless, it’s a crisis, complete with gutted banks, bankrupt companies, and state bailouts. Since the Chinese distinguish their model of state capitalism as “socialism with Chinese characteristics,” let’s call this a “financial crisis with Chinese attributes.”....

....The government—obsessed with social stability—isn’t allowing the debt bomb to detonate. But the financial crisis with Chinese attributes is inflicting the same damage on the economy anyway.....

....They’re trying it again. Much of the recent slowdown results from government efforts to constrain debt. So policymakers are, as usual, turning the credit spigot back on. In early January the central bank reduced the amount of cash it mandates banks hold in reserve, allowing them to lend more. Inevitably, that means more bad loans. “More debt is generated, and that debt is used to create all the things that have caused the problem over the past decade,” says Dinny McMahon, author of the book China’s Great Wall of Debt.

In that sense, the government is making the financial crisis with Chinese attributes worse than a standard crisis. Lehman moments might be terrifying, but they’re also cleansing, an opportunity for the market to scrub out the bad stuff and clear room for new, good stuff. Beijing, by stopping that from happening, is allowing the waste to rot and fester, likely enlarging the costs of the unavoidable cleanup....

....Meanwhile, the economy is weighed down. Too much of China’s debt has been amassed in unproductive ways—unnecessary factories, insolvent “zombie” companies—and that gross misallocation of resources is eating away at key drivers of growth. The New York-based Conference Board, a research association, figures total productivity growth in China has been negative since 2012.

All this leads to a downward spiral. With the nation already buried in debt, each attempt to stimulate the economy with fresh credit has a smaller and smaller payoff.

And the end result is the Eastern Hemisphere Fire. Stay

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

When the big cheese starts talking: China's Xi Jinping warns over economy in high-level meeting. A fraudulent economy which has the words contraction attached more and more; China's industrial profit falls again

Not surprisingly considering the parallel nature and size of BOJ balance sheet... What $$$??

-Faulty labor data casts doubt over Bank of Japan statistics
-Japan's monthly exports tumble most since 2016

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

black hole of debt going supernova. Stay

-China Company That Paid Debt in Ham Instead of Cash Is Running Low on Pigs
-Hundreds More Chinese Companies Just Warned on Profits
-China's manufacturing sector shrinks more than expected in January: Caixin PMI

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

In response to the debt supernova: more debt!!!!



But of course; China’s flexibility limited by its racking up debt, former policymakers say

Or more aptly; China’s credit boom has reached the point where countries typically encounter financial stress, which could spill over to international markets given the size of the Chinese economy.

Stay

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

A Surprise China Debt Default Upends Assumptions on Official Aid

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

With a chorus of people now saying Chinese data is worthless; China's fight against smog last year may be obscuring how bad its economy is this year

Visually speaking:



And the silk road out of this mess that China was hoping was going to eventually cover their BS, has hit a wall of war; Pakistan is ready for War

Stay

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

And this while Vancouver and NY are having "issues" with their housing markets.

HNA Unit's Lenders Threaten to Seize Assets After Default

Crisis at China's JPMorgan Wannabe Deepens on Bond Defaults

A debt crisis a one of China's most well known private conglomerates entered a new stage on Thursday, with the company saying a cross-default clause had been triggered on dollar bonds worth $800 million.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

As outlined earlier in this thread, once it's known that China produces fake data, it will be all about what is going on around them.

Maximum vulnerability: China (and the world) are still in big trouble

"Could it really be true?" asked Caixin magazine. This was a brave question in Uncle Xi's evermore totalitarian regime.

Of course it is not true. Japan's manufacturing exports to China fell by 9.4 per cent in March (year on year). Singapore's shipments dropped by 8.7 per cent to China, 22 per cent to Indonesia, and 27 per cent to Taiwan. Korea's exports are down 8.2 per cent....

....The greater China sphere of east Asia is in the midst of an industrial recession. Nomura's forward-looking index still points to a deepening downturn.....

....Liaoning - a Spain-sized province in the north - recently corrected its figures after an anti-corruption crackdown exposed grotesque abuses. Estimated GDP was cut by 22 per cent. You get the picture.....

Bear in mind that if China's economy is a fifth or a quarter smaller than claimed it implies that the total debt ratio is not 300 per cent of GDP (IIF data) but closer to 400 per cent. If China's growth rate is 1.7 per cent lower - and falling every year - the country is less able to rely on nominal GDP expansion whittling away the liabilities.

Bear in mind, their estimation is on the low end of China's overstatement. Fact is, debt to GDP is probably more like 550-600%; and that's where the black hole of debt(as I call it) the author outlines comes into play. Slap all that on top of the defaults, property bubbles popping....

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

And crossing over from the EU banking and the death of socialism...

China’s Lehman Moment Is Drawing Closer

China’s central bank has acknowledged its monetary tools are insufficient. The most powerful ones are proving too blunt to drill through a hardening financial system.

The country’s money markets have been shuddering since regulators took over Baoshang Bank Co. last month, despite initial assurances from the central bank and other authorities that they would maintain ample liquidity. While there has been little direct contagion, the seizure of the small commercial lender has hurt confidence. Funding costs for companies have shot up as large banks flinch from lending to some counterparties in the interbank market. For the first time in more than two decades, lenders face the prospect of defaults and haircuts on loans to other financial institutions, according to the Rhodium Group.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Only in a world of trillion dollar negative interest rates would the bear Stearns of the global debt bomb be looked at like, The best opportunity since Lehman’: Rivals eye Deutsche Bank staff.

I would have to look back through my notes for the exact name, but just as in the twilight of Japan....

Heavy Debt Humbles China’s Business Champions, Including the Jewelry Queen

When she was a teenager in the 1970s, Zhou Xiaoguang peddled trinkets city to city and slept on trains, a formative chapter in her creation of the world’s largest costume jeweler, Neoglory Holdings Group Co.

Leveraging her empire of baubles, China’s “fashion-accessory queen” added hotels, offices and malls. The magnet took a seat in China's national parliament, accepted businesses accolades, including Ernest & Young's "Entrepreneur of the Year" award, and erected the tallest skyscraper in Yiuw.....was faced with the reality of being unable to pay her company's billions of dollars in debt while in a bankruptcy court in April....

....Fueled by debt, many over-expanded into crowded sectors and now those mal-investments and mis-allocations of resources are coming back to bite them.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

To summarize the last 5-6 posts; China Bank of Jinzhou says in talks with possible investors, renewing contagion worry

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

A reoccurring theme on this thread has been the black hole of debt. Now, more and more it's catching on: The Black Hole Engulfing the World’s Bond Markets. Or to put it more eloquently: Negative-Yielding Debt Hits Record $15 Trillion...

And then World's Biggest Banks Sink to Record Lows as China Pain Spreads. Or a different way of saying it, just after DB laid off their entire investment arm... The cost to protect against a China debt default just spiked the most in 6 years Stay

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

but hey. From what I read on other parts of this forum - from a tail tucker - there are no problems in China.



Another Month, Another Chinese Bank Bailout

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Giant doin' cartwheels, statue wearin' high heels
Look at all the happy creatures dancin' on the lawn
Dinosaur Victrola list'nin' to Buck Owens
Doo, doo, doo, lookin' out my back door
Tambourines and elephants are playin' in the band
Won't you take a ride on the flyin' spoon? Doo, doo, doo
Wond'rous apparition provided by magician
Doo, doo, doo, lookin' out my back door.

Back Door’ Capital Outflows Should Worry Beijing

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

This is what the outlined slow motion plane crash looks like.....

Debt And Demographics: China's Real Problem Has Nothing To Do With Trade

Not to long ago, there was serious discussion about not whether but when the yuan would take over the role of premier fiat currency from the dollar. Today, the very idea seems laughable, and, as it pertains to Chinese debt, a dangerous foible. Further complicating the picture, unlike the U.S., or many other nations, China effectively guarantees a wide variety of non-governmental debt, ranging from the property sector to corporations to an entire shadow banking industry. China simply can’t afford, and/or is unwilling, to pull the plug and leave any of the above to the unbridled forces of the open market.
(Liquidity trap, wall of war, Marshall plan 2.0)

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

and the wall of war with the flu!

-Is China’s Belt And Road Already In Retreat?
-China’s Hurting Banks Brace for Worst-Case Economic Scenario

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Some interesting milestones in here..

Virus hits China's economic heart -- its small businesses

These smaller employers account for 99.8% of registered companies in China and employ 79.4% of workers, according to the latest official statistics. They contribute more than 60% of gross domestic product and, for the government, more than 50% of tax revenue.(Over 85% expect to run out of cash within three months)

[djAdvocate]

Asian sector looks good to me.
they got a much better handle on the Coronavirus, and should outperform the US and Europe for the next decade, because of it.