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Post by Deleted on Oct 31, 2012 21:35:11 GMT -5
"what brought you to this conclusion, ib?"
Well, for one Obama seems to be maintaining a solid lead in enough swing states to get him enough electoral votes. The only real uncertainty is that I wonder how well polls actually measure the opinion of the people who actually wind up voting. For that reason, I think it's tough to have accurate polls.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 31, 2012 21:43:20 GMT -5
Yeah, I think we're past the point where national polls matter. It's not all Ohio, but it is all swing states. Do we have any data to suggest that absentee ballot requests are related to overall voter turnout? The only time I have voted absentee is when I was travelling on election day, other than the military and the infirm (stereotype: old, probably Republican), are there a lot of habitual absentee voters? Romney has the traditional swing states- including Ohio- locked up. The only question now is whether states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania go for Romney making it a blowout. I say that of the three, Wisconsin is almost a lock, Michigan is looking good, and Pennsylvania is at least a 50/50 shot. The real fun could start when union-heavy Nevada falls, Oregon stuns the nation, and maybe if it's as bad as I think it is for Democrats we get a super-bonus of Minnesota or New Jersey.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 31, 2012 21:52:16 GMT -5
Paul--Are you going to take me up on my suggestion to change the title of your thread if/when Romney loses???
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 31, 2012 23:47:43 GMT -5
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Nov 1, 2012 1:35:43 GMT -5
Ok, People listen up. Just got back from a road trip to Columbus Ohio. A few of us traveled from Indiana, to discuss the political situation in Ohio. Our group has been assured Ohio is going red next week. And get this, Pennsylvania was also represented there. They say it is not a certain thing, but Mitt is gaining share in Pennsylvania by the day. This race may not be as close as I first predicted. We may have MSNBC go ballistic with Chris Mathews having a stroke at 6 pm central time when the race is called in Ohio and Pennsylvania. Friends tell me Wisconsin might be doable too. Now when is the time they are allowed to call the national election? Do they have to wait til California closes, or if it is a blowout, do they call it earlier
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Nov 1, 2012 8:08:51 GMT -5
Um, yeah- I agree. It's going to be an early night. It's going to be a Romney electoral AND popular vote landslide. Not close enough to bother with 46 hand-recounts.
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Post by Value Buy on Nov 1, 2012 8:38:23 GMT -5
I see that train a comin..... WHOO WHOO!
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Angel!
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Post by Angel! on Nov 1, 2012 9:55:40 GMT -5
smart politicking. poor state choices. What are these 100 people going to do? Obama has people everywhere. I had 2 come to my door this weekend alone & several others the past few weeks. That either means there are so many volunteers they are going over the same territory or they have poor planning. I will say the Romney TV ads are far outweighing the Obama ads in my state though. And the new Romney ads are pretty damn good. If people respond to ads, then I could see Romney taking CO. If they respond to door-to-door folks, then it will probably be Obama.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2012 11:51:55 GMT -5
Do they have to wait til California closes, or if it is a blowout, do they call it earlier You mean Alaska, right? The last polls to close are in Alaska.
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Waffle
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Post by Waffle on Nov 1, 2012 12:06:23 GMT -5
I think he means California - because California has 55 electoral college votes that are practically certain to be going to Obama. So, if say at 8 pm eastern Obama has 220 electoral college votes - do they add California's 55 and say he's the winner, even though the polls haven't yet closed in California?
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Angel!
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Post by Angel! on Nov 1, 2012 12:18:42 GMT -5
Do they have to wait til California closes, or if it is a blowout, do they call it earlier You mean Alaska, right? The last polls to close are in Alaska. Wouldn't Hawaii actually be last? Or do they poll at a different time to match the continental states?
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Post by Driftr on Nov 1, 2012 12:29:34 GMT -5
I need to see some Mittens love here. My karma bet with Virgil is looking worse and worse every day.
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Post by Tennesseer on Nov 1, 2012 12:34:27 GMT -5
You mean Alaska, right? The last polls to close are in Alaska. Wouldn't Hawaii actually be last? Or do they poll at a different time to match the continental states? A list of state poll closing times. Alaska and Hawaii are in two different time zones. And while it doesn't much matter, American Samoa is still yet in a different time zone. ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php/State_Poll_Opening_and_Closing_Times_(2012)
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2012 12:40:34 GMT -5
I think he means California - because California has 55 electoral college votes that are practically certain to be going to Obama. So, if say at 8 pm eastern Obama has 220 electoral college votes - do they add California's 55 and say he's the winner, even though the polls haven't yet closed in California? Oh... that they don't do. They never call a state until after its polls close - although in states like California, they will call it shortly thereafter. "With 32 percent of precincts reporting, we are ready to call the state for Obama" - that sort of thing. And they only award the electoral votes for the states that are finalized. So, Obama won't pick up those 55 votes until 11 pm or so.
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lynnerself
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Post by lynnerself on Nov 1, 2012 13:21:05 GMT -5
They always call my state about 2 secs after the polls close. We're very blue and have vote by mail.
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Post by happyhoix on Nov 1, 2012 16:01:19 GMT -5
"Just got back from a road trip to Columbus Ohio. A few of us traveled from Indiana, to discuss the political situation in Ohio. Our group has been assured Ohio is going red next week. And get this, Pennsylvania was also represented there."
Ok, Value Buy, I'll bite.
When you say "Road Trip" and "Our Group" are you talking about your fishing buddies? Your boy scout troop? Your church group? Everyone you work with?
Or are you and your best republican buddies getting together to gloat about the expected Romney win over coffee and donuts?
Because I know a voter in Connecticut, and she assures me she and everyone she knows is voting for Romney, so is that scientific proof that Romney will win Connecticut?
Or maybe I should wait until the day after election day to preen and swagger?
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Driftr
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Post by Driftr on Nov 1, 2012 16:05:59 GMT -5
Connecticut is a crappy example. They're going Blue regardless. Texas would have been better for effect IMO.
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 1, 2012 16:11:05 GMT -5
"Just got back from a road trip to Columbus Ohio. A few of us traveled from Indiana, to discuss the political situation in Ohio. Our group has been assured Ohio is going red next week. And get this, Pennsylvania was also represented there." Ok, Value Buy, I'll bite. When you say "Road Trip" and "Our Group" are you talking about your fishing buddies? Your boy scout troop? Your church group? Everyone you work with? ... My take is "everyone (he) work(s) with" which in this case is the RNC folk.
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Nov 1, 2012 16:14:58 GMT -5
I didn't vote for Romney. Neither did my mother. Neither did the couple next door. I guess that means South Carolina won't go Romney, eh?
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Post by Deleted on Nov 1, 2012 17:20:42 GMT -5
I didn't vote for Romney. Neither did my mother. Neither did the couple next door. I guess that means South Carolina won't go Romney, eh? but... but... but the train!
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Nov 1, 2012 17:58:16 GMT -5
I see that train a comin..... WHOO WHOO! Value Buy-This may be you come Wednesday chasing your train.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 1, 2012 18:07:06 GMT -5
Yeah, I think we're past the point where national polls matter. It's not all Ohio, but it is all swing states. Do we have any data to suggest that absentee ballot requests are related to overall voter turnout? The only time I have voted absentee is when I was travelling on election day, other than the military and the infirm (stereotype: old, probably Republican), are there a lot of habitual absentee voters? absentee balloting favors Republicans as a general rule.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 1, 2012 18:08:41 GMT -5
I think the Great Pumpkin (King?) traditionally gets deposed the day following Halloween. It ain't over until the polls close. And we hand-recount Chicken Shit County Ohio 9 times until they come up with the 279 votes they need to win. what happened to 347+?
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 1, 2012 18:10:26 GMT -5
smart politicking. poor state choices. What are these 100 people going to do? Obama has people everywhere. I had 2 come to my door this weekend alone & several others the past few weeks. That either means there are so many volunteers they are going over the same territory or they have poor planning. I will say the Romney TV ads are far outweighing the Obama ads in my state though. And the new Romney ads are pretty damn good. If people respond to ads, then I could see Romney taking CO. If they respond to door-to-door folks, then it will probably be Obama. CO is not that important to the electoral math, unless Obama loses Ohio.
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Post by Value Buy on Nov 1, 2012 18:27:09 GMT -5
I think he means California - because California has 55 electoral college votes that are practically certain to be going to Obama. So, if say at 8 pm eastern Obama has 220 electoral college votes - do they add California's 55 and say he's the winner, even though the polls haven't yet closed in California? Oh... that they don't do. They never call a state until after its polls close - although in states like California, they will call it shortly thereafter. "With 32 percent of precincts reporting, we are ready to call the state for Obama" - that sort of thing. And they only award the electoral votes for the states that are finalized. So, Obama won't pick up those 55 votes until 11 pm or so. I was referring to California, because of their EC vote total. I realize other states, and territories close later, but the media call the election way before then. I am wondering if MSNBC will wait until after California's polls close before calling the election for Romney. Not necessarily that California will go red, but the national result has been achieved.
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Post by Value Buy on Nov 1, 2012 18:29:40 GMT -5
I think he means California - because California has 55 electoral college votes that are practically certain to be going to Obama. So, if say at 8 pm eastern Obama has 220 electoral college votes - do they add California's 55 and say he's the winner, even though the polls haven't yet closed in California? Oh... that they don't do. They never call a state until after its polls close - although in states like California, they will call it shortly thereafter. "With 32 percent of precincts reporting, we are ready to call the state for Obama" - that sort of thing. And they only award the electoral votes for the states that are finalized. So, Obama won't pick up those 55 votes until 11 pm or so. Yes they do. One year NBC called Indiana one hour early. They failed to realize Indiana has two different time zones, and western countiies on the north and south end of the state still had an hour to go.
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Post by mwcpa on Nov 1, 2012 19:11:21 GMT -5
It's over! Figured I would join the crowd.
Chris Christie says Obama is doing a good job related to sandy, and he notes that they need a strong partnership with the federal government to rebuild.
The mayor of the largest city in the country supports Obama, and that mayor is an R.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Nov 2, 2012 15:16:59 GMT -5
What if, and I'm just asking here- what if, the party ID stuff aside...what if it turns out Mitt Romney is getting 5% to 10% of the Democrat vote? What if the polls are not picking this up? See you in four days...
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Post by Deleted on Nov 2, 2012 15:21:09 GMT -5
It's over! Figured I would join the crowd. Chris Christie says Obama is doing a good job related to sandy, and he notes that they need a strong partnership with the federal government to rebuild. The mayor of the largest city in the country supports Obama, and that mayor is an R. I thought Bloomberg was an Independent now?
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Post by deziloooooo on Nov 2, 2012 16:42:18 GMT -5
It's over! Figured I would join the crowd. Chris Christie says Obama is doing a good job related to sandy, and he notes that they need a strong partnership with the federal government to rebuild. The mayor of the largest city in the country supports Obama, and that mayor is an R.[/ I thought Bloomberg was an Independent now? He is...
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