2011-2012 Long Term Game

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Well your doing a great job guy!

Aug 26, 2011 15:50:01 GMT -5 @wxyz said:

Congratulations. I am still waiting for one of my positions to go green. Perhaps some time over the next few weeks.

Us, "the magnificent four" are in an epic battle for position at the bottom of the rankings. We are hitting HUGE returns on the up days. I will not mention the down days.

No doubt!! I luv the name, it's perfect!

I agree that a year isn't long term. I say if we get to +5-6% we say that we returned over 25% on the game.. ;D

[kadee79]

wxyz, beat ya!!!!!! I have 2 at present! But that could change at any time!!!

[tyfighter3]

I got a ways to go yet but today was encouraging, LOL

[Clifford]

I am doing OK but I am changing my strategy as of today. To this point I have been managing my trades like I do in real life, but I am not learning anything. I think I will let my current holdings mature (if they will) and sell when I am ready, but future buys/sells will be based on a new method. I may well fall on my face, but I will know if it is a good plan or a bad one for real-life implementation.

[fvbridges]

Well.... the shoestore may be on the way today. I think that most have gone the way of the dinosaur though.....sadly.

[IPAfan]

I'm seeing a lot of good investments right now. This is a good time to be allocating capital in my opinion. Still long TTT, FRFHF, ENH, PM, MO. I added to TTT close to the lows, and am pouring money from dividends back into PM right now. I'm talking about buying like 5-10 shares at a time. But if I've got $500 sitting in the account, it costs me $4.95 to make a trade. So I feel like I'm willing to spend 1% on transaction fees when I plan to hold a stock for several years.

The goal for my personal portfolio is to bring the tobacco component of my portfolio up to a 20% allocation. I'd also like to devote 10% or so of the portfolio to a basket of Canadian small and mid cap E&P companies that I believe have excellent risk:return profiles as a whole. I plan to do this without selling any of my core shares. However, I might sell spinoff shares if I get them from the Terra Nova position. I may or may not add more on an absolute basis to my position in Terra Nova. However, since the position current accounts for 50% of my portfolio it will probably shrink on a relative basis as I am hopefully able to buy some tobacco and oil companies. Unfortunately I'd like to buy now, and without borrowing or selling, I'm going to have to put this new money to work over the next 6 months instead of the next 6 days (and I think I might miss out on some big gains especially in the oil patch, within this time period).

[IPAfan]

I'm seeing a lot of good investments right now. This is a good time to be allocating capital in my opinion. Still long TTT, FRFHF, ENH, PM, MO. I added to TTT close to the lows, and am pouring money from dividends back into PM right now. I'm talking about buying like 5-10 shares at a time. But if I've got $500 sitting in the account, it costs me $4.95 to make a trade. So I feel like I'm willing to spend 1% on transaction fees when I plan to hold a stock for several years.

The goal for my personal portfolio is to bring the tobacco component of my portfolio up to a 20% allocation (right now tobacco is about 12%). I'd also like to devote 10% or so of the portfolio to a basket of Canadian small and mid cap E&P companies that I believe have excellent risk:return profiles as a whole. I plan to do this without selling any of my core shares. However, I might sell spinoff shares if I get them from the Terra Nova position. I may or may not add more on an absolute basis to my position in Terra Nova. However, since the position current accounts for 50% of my portfolio it will probably shrink on a relative basis as I am hopefully able to buy some tobacco and oil companies. Unfortunately I'd like to buy now, and without borrowing or selling, I'm going to have to put this new money to work over the next 6 months instead of the next 6 days (and I think I might miss out on some big gains especially in the oil patch, within this time period).

[tyfighter3]

Beer, the oil patch is under-valued right now here in NA. Lots of growth for a long time to come. Sure there is going to be sell offs but what a time to get more at a discount. These stocks are not going away any time soon. JMO

[tyfighter3]

Plus you got so many Buyout candidates for the Big Boys to choose from and they will because they are going to get into this, it's just a matter of time. JMO

[kadee79]

WaaaHoooo!

I have 3 "in the green" this morning! How long that lasts is questionable!

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Aug 31, 2011 15:28:23 GMT -5 @wxyz said:

You are right the herd mentality is all over the place. Although it has been my experience over the past 40 years that people "talk" about being long term investors, but for the most part that is just talk. The research studies done over the past 20-30 years bears out the fact that in spite of all the talk of being long term investors, the average investor can not avoid being shaken out of the markets and trying to time the markets. As I have said many times the long term average investor has a return of about 3%, way below the unmanaged indexes long term, due to psychological issues and attempted market timing.

I hope the game is not screwed up. I just checked and it is showing that I had a loss of .5% today when by my figures I had a gain of $24,576. I will recalculate using their closing figures for each position in a while to give them a chance to get final figures up.

Such a great point. It takes a lot of guts to hold on when everyone else is saying that the world is ending. I now I shared this with you already wxyz, but I'm going to post this here too.

It was funny last Friday I was talking to a young guy a work with, makes me feel old to call a 19 yr old young, lol, but I was saying that now is the time to buy stocks, when everyone is screaming a panicking you need to be cool. His eyes grew about three sizes, and he just shook his head, I just smiled and said "that is a whole different ball game" He nodded "YEP" and gave me a smile like a was about to lose every ting. This last week has been fun for me, however, I seem to be getting a bit of the cold shoulder from a few of them now...

That sucks about the math wxyz.

Are we getting dividends or not DI? I don't care. My point has been proven to my better half, so mission accomplished on that with the game. If we aren't getting div, I think I might have some fun here and start re-balancing a bit...

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I was supposed to get around $200 from AA on the 25th. Like I said, no biggie, I just wanted to keep you posted. I hear you about sitting tight, it's going to be interesting to see how it plays out.

[clarkrl2]

I ran a screen to see how many S&P 500 companies are closer to their 52 wk low than their 52 wk high. The screen returned 278 stocks. To me that indicates there are plenty of opportunities to buy stocks at a substantial discount to their 52 wk high. Something to consider is some of these are likely to hit another new 52 wk low before they hit a new 52 wk high.

[mizbear]

Has something happened with the game- I went to try and sign in today and got a whole bunch of mumbo jumbo about creating an account and the advanced game...

[mizbear]

Thanks DI- We have had some minor hiccups here as they switch us to V10- so it could just be another small hiccup in my system on the home end.

My strategy- aside from letting my nieces help me pick stocks- is that I only pick companies that I at least have a general familiarity with and then I don't mess with them too much unless there is a major problem.

[kadee79]

What happened to uncle??? He fell below me & bumped me out of 12th place!!!

[uncle23]

........

Kadee66.....I made a mistake....typical greedy mistake.....can't make a correction today...too late...

[uncle23]

wxyz.....I was ahead by 1% Thursday morning ...I usually quit after this .... I made one more trade and got caught in the downtrend.......I made several of these before but got lucky. In real life I would cut my loses quickly and forgo a potential win to protect principal......

[kadee79]

Welcome to the down side uncle! ;D
I can relate to that getting caught! Should have sold a couple while they were still green yesterday but held off. Then I got busy and didn't check for awhile...mistake!

But that pineapple upside down cake that I got busy with was sure good! ;D

[uncle23]

..............

Hey kadee, pineapple cake is great with coffee...! ;D

[kadee79]

My issue has been when the markets are moving fast...they don't always show the lowest price on the game board. I'll have 2 screens open, one the game & another with real time quotes and there will be a difference and the game will never go down as low as the real time shows....usually only a few cents, but that can add up if it is a cheap stock!

[uncle23]

.....


thanks W

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

If we are up tomorrow, I think I'm going to take that 50k back w, it seems to be the pattern. lol

[kadee79]

I made a little headway this week. Now if it will hold on.......

uncle went by me so fast I didn't even feel the breeze!

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

LOL... Of course the "plan" is coming together nicely, our 50% returns this year will be something to write home about.. ;D

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Let see if you fall to my level today W, I thought I had that 50k the other day for sure.. LOL.. The Asian markets are not happy anyway..

[Deleted]

I'm ready to make my move.... subtly.

[fvbridges]

I look around for what to buy or sell and think I'm ohhhh....sooooo.....smart and then a day like today happens and the thud you heard was me dropping from #4 to #9. Guess I'll have to hold and hope.....lol. On the good news front, my actual holdings are holding their own even with the market tanking.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I was thining that EXACT same thing today!!! OUCH!!!

[IPAfan]

Now would be a great time to join the game. Maybe I'll have to reconsider. Valuations are very cheap on many of my favorite investments. I think Terra Nova is a screaming buy, and the same with Endurance Specialty Holdings.

Phillip Morris Int is looking very attractive with great earnings growth and a recent dividend hike of 20%. With the market decline this brings the yield close to 5% with healthy earnings and dividend growth on the horizon.

Only wish I had more cash to add to holdings with. My one choice would be to sell my FRFHF.PK position. This is a well run company, but it trades over book value right now. I've got other investments (like Terra Nova) with stronger balance sheets that trade at significant discounts to asset values. Making this portfolio move would further decrease my portfolio diversification, but I'm still considering it. Honestly, diversification doesn't mean a lot to me at this point in my career.