watch GLL ultra short gold

[Deleted]

no trade yet but we "MIGHT" be getting close....
stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLL&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p87986682057

[rovo]

Will1, oops, majeasy,
I posted a similar message earlier on the SI board POTW Summary thread.
So I have a question. Is there any or much difference in GLL as comapered to DZZ? DZZ is a -2X Gold.

[Deleted]

DZZ and GLL are about the same, see for yourself... just noticed currently GLL trades at about $29 DZZ trades at $8.50 and DZZ only trades twice as many share at about one fourth the price.....more dollar volume in GLL
stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLL&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p02281491226

i hope to see Gold come back to $950 to 1050 an ounce..
a new wampum might be sea shells, bear and eagle claws, and or shiny beads... hen's teeth won't work they are too scarce....

[rovo]

I noticed GLL has options associated with it and DZZ does not.
I don't think $650 is out of the question. Once "fear" subsides gold could tumble. Those holding physical gold may not be able to unload if the price is declining rapidly. Who would be buying physical gold if the price is crashing? Even a dealer would hesitate to buy if he can't resell immediately.

[rovo]

Why am I suddenly cheering for Oklahoma?
I don't know if I'm educated enough to play GLL but I certainly am daring enough. I'm just going to keep my powder dry until GLD meets the aforementioned criteria. When it does give me the warm fuzzy feeling I will be allocating substantial assets to the play. ;D

[yclept]

Bought 300 DGZ this morning @ 15.32 on a limit that's been in place for awhile. I just don't feel comfortable going double short against a commodity that so many worship as the primary god of their economic religion. Besides, I think when the gold bubble pops it may not be necessary to be double short -- I think any short in it will give the ride of a lifetime. I can always pile some double short exposure on top of this later.
chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=DGZ&t=3m&q=l&l=on&z=l&p=s&a=v&p=s&lang=en-US®ion=US

[danshirley]

Three low risk ways to short gold using options:
Combo: Short GLD at 138.72 And Hedge the upside by buying a March 143 call for 3.35 And Finance the call by shorting the March 135 put for 3.30 so that the net cost of the hedge is .05 .
Compare that Combo to a straight bear call spread (March 140/145) and a straight long March 139 put.
Using Friday's close:
....................................P/L...............................
GLD Price..........Combo............BCS..........Long Put
0.......................367..............171............$$$$$
134....................367..............171............(19)
136....................263..............171............(217)
138......................65..............171...........(415)
140...................(141).............171...........(520)
142...................(339).............(25)...........(520)
144...................(433)............(232)..........(520)
145...................(433)............(329)..........(520)
infinity...............(433)............(329)..........(520)
---------------------------------------------------------------
Req:.................(13,867)........329.............520

Cap your loss at the cost of capping your gain so you can sleep at night. (First can't be done in an IRA, second and third can)
www.theoptionsguide.com/bear-call-spread.aspx
GLD:
The trust holds gold, and is expected to issue baskets in exchange for deposits of gold, and to distribute gold in connection with redemption of baskets. .
GLL:
The fund invests in any one of or combinations of the financial instruments (swap agreement, futures contracts, forward contracts, option contracts) with respect to the applicable fund’s benchmark to the extent determined appropriate by the Sponsor

[rovo]

Yclept, I'm confused by your comments about DGZ. Deutsche Bank AG ? Relationship to gold?

Gold is still dropping and the 5-15-50 are getting quite close and they will probably cross sometime next week if the trend continues. I'm looking at acquiring 3K shares of GLL at the cross.

[yclept]

DGZ is ETF short on gold. It's not leveraged.

AG stands for AktienGesellschaft. That means it is a shareholder company.

Deutsche Bank AG DB Gold Short (NYSEArca: DGZ )
Real Time15.64 -0.06 (-0.38%) 10:53AM EST
Last Trade: 15.65
Trade Time: 10:39AM EST
Change: 0.05 (0.32%)
Prev Close: 15.70
Open: 15.76
Bid: 15.65 x 4000
Ask: 15.66 x 16800
1y Target Est: N/A
Day's Range: 15.64 - 15.77
52wk Range: 15.05 - 20.93
Volume: 426,953
Avg Vol (3m): 190,600
Market Cap: N/A
P/E (ttm): N/A
EPS (ttm): N/A
Div & Yield: N/A (N/A

[mtntigger]

I'm bumping this. Am I reading this right by seeing that we are almost there?

[rovo]

I'm bumping this. Am I reading this right by seeing that we are almost there?

Maybe, maybe not. It is like being almost pregnant. As of today the price and averages are as follows:
SMA 15 = 135.65
SMA 50 = 135.00
SMA 5 = 134.30
Price = 134.05
This commodity is subject to violent price swings based upon news items throughout the world. For sure we want to wait until the cross occurs before acting on it. Even then I can envision a little whip-saw action. Shorting gold is going to be a very risky proposition and one had better have a strong stomach to go short. If and when the cross occurs I'll be using GLL as the vehicle for the short.

SBS, Is this something you are going to try or are you just watching?

[rovo]

FWIW ....... I have good-till-cancel orders in the system for 4,000 shares of GLL at a price of $20.00. Current price is $29.72 and this should increase to $33 - $36 if and when the cross occurs. My orders are just to remind me of the play and allow for a quick price change when I decide to act.

[mtntigger]

SBS, Is this something you are going to try or are you just watching?

I believe that gold has got to come down in price, so I did transfer some money into my account for this potential trade. Now whether or not I actually press the button, that's a whole different story.

[yclept]

Well, for what it's worth, I still hold the DGZ mentioned above. So far so good; it's up about 2% since I bought it on 12/28. It's not leveraged. I figure it's the best way for someone like me to play against gold -- I hate gold with a passion; to me it represents pure stupidity, so best I keep tight rein on my passion. When it begins to catastrophically collapse I can sell all other positions, mortgage everything to the hilt and pile it all into the highest leveraged gold short I can find, but for now, caution and temperance are key!
I want it to go down, down, down. I want to kick it and stomp on it. I want its owners to suffer, or to quote Mark Twain from "The War Prayer":

"Lord our Father, our young patriots, idols of our hearts, go forth into battle -- be Thou near them! With them -- in spirit -- we also go forth from the sweet peace of our beloved firesides to smite the foe. O Lord our God, help us tear their soldiers to bloody shreds with our shells; help us to cover their smiling fields with the pale forms of their patriot dead; help us to drown the thunder of the guns with the shrieks of their wounded, writhing in pain; help us to lay waste their humble homes with a hurricane of fire; help us to wring the hearts of their unoffending widows with unavailing grief; help us to turn them out roofless with their little children to wander unfriended in the wastes of their desolated land in rags and hunger and thirst, sports of the sun flames in summer and the icy winds of winter, broken in spirit, worn with travail, imploring thee for the refuge of the grave and denied it --

For our sakes who adore Thee, Lord, blast their hopes, blight their lives, protract their bitter pilgrimmage, make heavy their steps, water their way with their tears, stain the white snow with the blood of their wounded feet!

We ask it, in the spirit of love, of Him Who is the Source of Love, and Who is the ever-faithful refuge and friend of all that are sore beset and seek His aid with humble and contrite hearts. Amen."

And that my friends is why I own a single position of an unleveraged gold short!

[rovo]

Yclept, Now that previous post was a little scary. I wish no one ill will with their holdings. The smart ones will switch out when the decline starts. The rest will sit there and wonder what happened, blinded by their passion for a chunk of metal. No matter what happens they will still be happy looking at their pile of gold.

[yclept]

Rovo,
You are too soft. They should be torn limb from limb and their widows and orphans left to wander the earth in pain. Twain wrote this a few years after the Philippine-American war (we call it the Philippine Insurrection!), but did not allow it to be published before his death. This is just the "prayer" excerpt from the short story. Twain said he had told the whole truth in this story and that only dead men are allowed to tell the whole truth.
Here's a link to the short story: warprayer.org/

Sorry, Will, we can now return to the regularly-scheduled program.

[rovo]

GLD is declining in spite of a falling dollar. Normally a decline in the dollar would boost the price of gold. This does not bode well for gold as it must be losing even more value when compared to other currencies.

[livinincali]

GLD is declining in spite of a falling dollar. Normally a decline in the dollar would boost the price of gold. This does not bode well for gold as it must be losing even more value when compared to other currencies.

Probably just hedge funds liquidating long gold positions so they can establish more long stock positions. Last I read hedge fund leverage ratios were nearing all time highs so they probably are liquidating their previous winners so they can leverage more into the stock market and hopefully outperform the S&P since that's all that really matters, well at least for their bonus.

[uncle23]

.......................YCLEPT...........I went to the link and understood..differently........peace be with you..

[rovo]

An important point to note for those of us watching gold for a possible short position is the 50 day SMA has just today began showing a negative slope. This is one of those things that reinforces the crossing of the averages.

The 15 day SMA is still above the 50 day SMA but it is closing in on the 50. It will most likely be next week before we get the final cross indicating a SELL or Short is in order.

Normally the crosses are a little more pronounced so the GLD is not acting as one would expect on a potential short play. I note this as a warning to establishing a Short position.

[Deleted]

stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLL&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p24237881269

[rovo]

The 15 Day SMA is just a tad above the 50 SMA on GLD. They are so close I can't get a good number on them. Maybe come Monday we will have a solid cross. The current price appears to be trying to cross above the 50 SMA. Not good.

[Deleted]

Rovo,
here's close up point of view on GLD
stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p97126182404
i watch the slope of the 50ma as well

[rovo]

I just noticed on the chart supplied by majeasy that lately the largest volume days were all days where the price dropped in GLD. What me may be seeing is the big guys dumping and driving the price lower, only to be met by little guys buying on the dip and bring the price upward. This will not end well for those buying now.

[yclept]

Bought 200 GLL; so now I'm short gold with DGZ and double short with this GLL. I have a single position of each, as gold is more of a religion than a commodity, and sometimes folks get mad when one takes positions contrary to their dogma.
My karma ran over my dogma.

[mtntigger]

Looking at the timing, the next Federal Reserve meeting is next week (25th & 26th). Does anybody think that this will have an impact on gold?

[rovo]

Well, if they announce additional QE the price of gold would rise but I don't think that will be the case. I'm more concerned with some additional problem with the PIIGS.

[rovo]

I have a buy order in for GLL at $30.00. Currently at 30.60. Looking at the chart I see big drops followed by a couple of days of improving prices. Buy the dip type thing. But, the increases do not seem to be able to stick and then it takes a bigger step downward. I'm not rushing into this play because gold will probably inch upward tomorrow and Monday. Monday / Tuesday still seems to me to be the day to seal the deal.

[Deleted]

don't have a position in GLL.
my trading software wanted me to enter the trade this morning @$30.72, with a sell stop at 29.00 and a profit target of $33.00...
good risk reward ratio, didn't take the trade because the slope of the 50 was flat, suggesting the stock was not in a trend and could go either way...

[rovo]

I don't have the exact numbers but:
Closing price of GLD < 5 day SMA;
5 day SMA < 15 day SMA;
15 day SMA < 50 day SMA;

50 day SMA is sloping downward;
MACD divergence is increasingly negative;
MACD is heading down;
Slow Stochastic is neither over bought or over sold but heading down;

All days with volume in excess of average are down days;
In the last 5 minute segment of the day GLD hit the day's low but bounced off the $131.04 low point to close at $131.20.

Anyone else have any additional criteria to add?

Looks like a flat out sell signal to me and I'll be acting on the signal via GLL tomorrow morning providing GLD does not open strong.