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Post by yclept on Jan 20, 2011 20:18:59 GMT -5
As mentioned above, I have positions in DGZ (short gold) and GLL (double short gold). I guess the only other thing I would add is to repeat my caveat from above. Gold is not a currency; it is not a commodity. Gold is a religion. By shorting it, one is taking what is to many an idiot a heretical position punishable at the stake. So watch out for people wearing mitres, for their men-at-arms, and for that matter keep a sharp eye for wood choppers carrying fagots or fasces.
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Post by yclept on Jan 20, 2011 20:26:39 GMT -5
Oh, and the 9/12 MACD has had the moving average over the signal for awhile and today crossed above zero, which is interpreted by most folks as a full MACD "buy" signal. You have to balance this against the fact that I own these short positions and I am a heretic, thus subject to the nefarious whims of all the gods.
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Jan 20, 2011 23:05:35 GMT -5
Yclept, Is it correct to assume in post #34 you are refering to GLL having the good MACD?
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Post by yclept on Jan 21, 2011 2:05:23 GMT -5
Both GLL and DGZ have moving average above the signal, and both crossed above zero within the last day or so. GLL crossed above zero on 1/14; DGZ on 1/13.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2011 4:12:52 GMT -5
i hope you guys are successful on GLL trades... the daily chart shown currently suggests GLL is overbought and still in a bearish trend (red bold moving average).... a faster, shorter term, 3 bar per day or 130 minute chart is the one needed to get my trading system to make a GLL trade.... my trading software has only a 60% win rate so the fact it's doesn't see your GLL trade as being valid should not be that big a deal.... that said, i wouldn't make a GLL long trade at this time. Attachments:
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clarkrl2
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Post by clarkrl2 on Jan 21, 2011 15:18:02 GMT -5
The gold rally seemed to fizzle as gld approached 140 so I entered a bear call spread by selling the Mar 31 2011 140 call and buying the Mar 31 2011 145 call. The amount credited to my account was $62 per contract. 500 - 62= 438. 62/438 = 14%. I am going to use the 50 day moving average as a mental stop. There is more volume on GLD options than GLL and There are more dates where options are available. I don't intend to let the spread expire in the money but if it did my max. loss would be $438 per contract. I don't usually like to think of these trade in terms of annual yeild but it calculates to about 90.6% annual return.
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Jan 22, 2011 15:12:18 GMT -5
Data below is as of the close on 21 January for GLD and still indicates the full SELL. SMA 50 = $134.73 SMA 15 = $134.26 SMA 5 = $132.41 Price = $131.03 -$0.17 The Slow Stochastic is rapidly approaching an over sold condition. This indicator can stay in any particular condition for quite a while. I'll update this on a weekly basis since there are a few of us in a short position on gold. Chart used from message #25. stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p97126182404 |
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Jan 24, 2011 21:47:36 GMT -5
The full sell signal continues to get reinforced. Today GLD was down again and GLL was up at the proportional 2X%. After hours is showing GLD and gold with additional significant declines.
disclosure: I'm short gold via GLL.
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Post by yclept on Jan 31, 2011 21:11:58 GMT -5
I find it encouraging for those of us short gold that Friday's action didn't continue today. Rather some of the rise in gold from Friday was taken back today. The volume today for GLD was less than half what it was on Thursday and Friday and the high today was lower than the high on Friday. I thought that with the unsettled situation in Egypt (and for that matter much of the middle-east) that gold was going to run up for awhile.
I don't think it so much represents the market being comfortable with the geopolitical status as it does a recognition that gold is just too damned high. Perhaps safe-havens will shift to beaten-down but otherwise dependable currencies (US$?) and investments in those countries' markets.
Methinks the lily may have been gilded to the point the stem broke from the weight of the gilding. Looks like for awhile all the lilies are going to be dipped in black gold.
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Post by yclept on Feb 1, 2011 13:12:30 GMT -5
I was encouraged that gold didn't take off like crazy due to all the political goings-on. But looking at the chart for GLD, I think it might be bottoming out and heading back up. So I sold my shorts in gold:
DGZ sold 15.9901; bought 12/28 @ 15.32; 4.07%
GLL sold 30.9701; bought 1/20 @ 30.77; 0.42%
Obviously the return I made on the GLL was not worth the risk I took, it being a leveraged short. But at least I got out of it with my scalp intact. There will be plenty of times ahead to carve bacon off this hog belly, no sense trying to do it when the hog is getting prodded awake by outside influences.
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Feb 2, 2011 23:35:40 GMT -5
I'm still holding my GLL and it is about even or maybe a tad in the red. Gold pricing has been remarkably subdued for all the problems in Egypt.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 3, 2011 5:32:40 GMT -5
yesterday i added half a position in GLL stop $30.65, target $35.26 also shorted a half position in FO fortune brands, expect one of the 2 trades will work Attachments:
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Feb 3, 2011 12:10:33 GMT -5
Big jump in GLD on high volume. Disconcerting for us holding shorts on gold. A spike or a trend?
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livinincali
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Post by livinincali on Feb 3, 2011 13:20:14 GMT -5
Too early to say. Daily RSI and MACD looks good for GLD to continue it's move up. It also has the standard 2 legs down that forms a lot of bottoms. For now it's still a bit neutral but a move over 134.25 in GLD (back above the 50 day moving average) probably means we just experienced a small correction in Gold and it's going to move on to new highs. We starting to see the negative effects of Ben Bernanke's POMO/QE#/Straight out monetizing of the debt. It produced a nice rally in the market but money printing never works forever otherwise all that it takes to produce wealth is more money printing. Commodities are telling Ben he better stop soon otherwise he's likely to destabilize half of the world as food prices keep going up. A large part of the problems in Egypt, Tunsia and other poor parts of the world are rising food costs.
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Feb 3, 2011 15:00:17 GMT -5
I sold off 1/3 of my GLL at a small loss. The other 2/3 are out there for sale but I just missed getting rid of them. At this time I just feel there is too much risk in this trade considering what is happening in Egypt and the surrounding area to continue with this trade.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 3, 2011 17:46:45 GMT -5
the only thing less profitable than buying gold is shorting gold i was stopped out of GLL with a small loss..... i hate to loose.... IMHO gold is still a dog and i haven't learned my lesson, i'll short it again... underwater with my FO short as well... Attachments:
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Post by Deleted on Feb 4, 2011 2:46:23 GMT -5
your guess is as good as mine. that said, i believe the markets are heavily manipulated.... the hourly chart below shows the last 3 short squeezes followed by reversion to mean pricing.... maybe now would be a good time to short.... if the recent past history of gold trading occurs, at least half, to a 100% of the run up will be retraced... finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=h1Attachments:
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Post by danshirley on Feb 4, 2011 3:11:51 GMT -5
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Post by yclept on Feb 11, 2011 14:28:30 GMT -5
I think it's time to start watching the short side of gold again. Whatever's happening in Egypt is probably going to take some of the safe-haven pressure off of gold at which point it should once again seek a price to reflect the useless, overvalued garbage that it is.
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livinincali
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Post by livinincali on Feb 11, 2011 16:18:07 GMT -5
Technicals are starting to look a bit more favorable for the shorts, but I still think it's too early to short this. I sold my long silver position today but at the same time I didn't short it yet. Need to see how things work out on a pullback.
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clarkrl2
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Post by clarkrl2 on Feb 16, 2011 1:16:28 GMT -5
GLD closed above the 50-day moving average. I still have my bear call spread open but may close it if GLD rallies tomorrow.
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Post by yclept on Feb 18, 2011 14:09:48 GMT -5
For whatever it's worth, I've got a GTC order in for GLL at 28.16 -- that's down around the end of December lows and I'm hoping the Middle-east crises will push gold up enough to perhaps get GLL down to this level -- don't know that it'll get there anytime soon, but if it does, I want it!
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Post by Deleted on Feb 19, 2011 15:22:08 GMT -5
gold reversed the last 3 times it traded outside the bol bands... trusting gold to reverse here has a 60% win-rate, not good odds, but as gold gets closer to resistance the win-rate odds will become higher and higher... Attachments:
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Post by yclept on Feb 21, 2011 12:45:34 GMT -5
Just modified target buy price on GLL down to 27.9 -- gold is on upswing and I think it has a little farther to go so I'm trying to catch GLL at about 3% lower price than when I first put the GTC order on back on 2/11. If I get filled, fine. If not, also fine.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2011 14:59:14 GMT -5
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Feb 21, 2011 19:54:58 GMT -5
I still have a modest short position on gold but I wouldn't enter a new position at this time. It is approaching the all time high and if it breaks through the high it could run upward for quite a while. The high was $1,423.70 and gold currently is $1,406.60 but hit $1,408.xx earlier today.
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Post by yclept on Feb 23, 2011 10:37:13 GMT -5
My limit order for GLL filled this morning at 27.9. Right now the price is 27.86, so gold is obviously still going up. Are gold's wings made of feathers and wax? Will it fly too close to the sun?
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livinincali
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Post by livinincali on Feb 23, 2011 11:04:04 GMT -5
I currently don't see anything technical in GLD's chart that indicates a near term pullback, but metals don't necessarily see a lack of momentum when they top. They usually top when they look pretty strong on a big bearish engulfing candle. Looks like I sold my silver long AGQ way too soon but a profit is a profit. There's nothing really fundamental driving silver other than the fear of inflation and momentum chasing. It's not like industrial use or jewelry use is way up for silver.
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livinincali
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Post by livinincali on Feb 24, 2011 16:12:57 GMT -5
There's the big bearish engulfing candle on Gold and Silver. At least we have potential for a top being in.
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rovo
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Post by rovo on Feb 24, 2011 16:40:14 GMT -5
When I was watching GLD earlier this afternoon it looked to be topping. Worth watching but still too much going on in Libya to make a large play in anti-gold. As dynamic as events are in the Middle East, tomorrow may be a different scenario on a GLL play.
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