What Ever Happened To.........

[Virgil Showlion]

Sorry since 1970 not 1980, the fertility rate in Canada has hovered around 1.7 aka GROWTH, just not replacement. Get it? Still more, just not explosive.

Ham, ham, ham. blocked due to malware warnings/smilies/imgs/disdain/disdain002_2.gif[/img]

Time for a crash refresher course in high school math.

Firstly, the fertility rate by definition is "average number of children born per woman in Canada", or, if you prefer "average number of children born per couple in Canada", which is the same thing (it takes two to make a baby).

If every couple is having exactly two children on average (i.e. replacing themselves), intuitively we expect the population to remain stable. No growth. No decay. People are born, replace themselves, and die off. Over amortized time, the population remains unchanged.

Now, as I have pointed out, the "replacement rate" is actually closer to 2.1 children per couple since (for historical reasons) women not yet of childbearing age are not counted as "women with 0 children" when calculating the average. Some women do, however, die before puberty. Intuitively, this means means that the fertility rate must be slightly greater than 2.0 to compensate.

Supposing a parent generation has x individuals (meaning x/2 women), if each woman has r children on average, the child generation will have xr/2 individuals. 2.0/2.1 ~= 95% of these children will survive to child-bearing age, meaning that the child generation will have xr/2.1 fertile individuals. Simple algebra.

Let t be the time in years passed since a reference time 0, and let g be the average length of a generational cycle (roughly 21 years). The number of generations passed over time t is then t/g, and with x as the initial population at time 0, the population after t years is given by x_now = x*(r/2.1)^(t/g), again by high school math and our above derivation of the constant of proportionality between generations (r/2.1).

Simple inspection shows us that if r < 2.1, we have a decaying exponential curve. If r > 2.1, we have a rising exponential. If r = 2.1, as stated before, we have every couple simply replacing themselves.

Consider Canada over the 21st century (at r ~= 1.7, the current "baby bump", and at r ~= 1.55, the average over the past three decades) starting at 33 M people and omitting immigration from foreign countries:



In case in it's obvious, we're dying off rather quickly.

Clearly outlines the dawn of the tech age.

You're seeing what you want to in a nothing blip in the data. "Dawn of the tech age" in 1995 is a Hamburgerian myth. Show me one article anywhere on earth that calls the mid-90's the "dawn of the tech age" and I'll eat my hat.

The blip doesn't even occur in the Statscan data, which I trust more than whatever database Google is pulling their numbers from.

And no, the range 1.5-1.7 is not "hovering around" 2.0, as the plot above clearly shows in terms of implications.

I will take that as you have ZERO conviction in what you're talking about.

Take it however you want. I've offered you a podcast, several books, and the starting point for an Internet search. I'm "pawning [MY] ideas off" in response to Frank Q's direct queries about the subject.

You've rejected my one-year prediction challenge. There is zero profit in my continuing this debate.

[kman]

Yup Aman and they have a name.....Only they will not say it....

[kman]

Aman..Your way over the curve...LOL

[frankq]

"If you can disprove his wild theories, perhaps you can disprove somewhat-associated theories by proxy. It's one of the reasons you invest so much time and effort discrediting ideas that (by your own admission) you consider ridiculous.

Well, It's been fairly easy to discredit most of his, and your, nonsense so far. If you want to live your life around the works of science fiction writers and wring your hands over it, so be it. I see no supporting evidence of mass genocide on a global scale orchestrated by the NATO alliance or pharmacutical companies. I'm sure that all of these global corporations, which many out here have said actually control the world, must have some reason to cut their customer base by 90%. I'm just not smart enough to figure it out I guess. Perhaps you can provide us some hard info besides the writings of H.G. Wells and others.

[frankq]

"I suspect your obsession with Decoy is a major part of your "out"."

And again, I'll remind you that I didn't mention names. I'll also remind you that I stated the these so called prophacies were, in fact, calls by MANY posters, past and present. Another fact is that, other than this, I haven't posted here for months. It seems that you sir, are obsessed with me....

[frankq]

"Find me one post anywhere where I propose, subscribe to, or endorse any of the aforementioned theories."

Well, at any rate, you certainly spend a lot of time defending them....

"As for why Decoy believes them, take it up with him."

We'd love to Virgil, if only you'd let us. But it seems that you're doing all the talking here.

[frankq]

"My challenge to Frank was for predictions on a one-year timeframe that we could come back to and verify. What possible profit is it to me to write about the "end game" if I can't revisit the issue in a year and rub your nose in it?"

Challenge? Are you kidding me? China has been doing it for years by encouraging their people to ease up. There is a huge difference between intelligent population management, through some kind of incentives and/or education particularly in places where these people can't even feed themselves where it might not be such a bad plan, and Genocide. What you guys believe is some master plan to kill off at least 6 billion people. The fact that NATO recognizes some of the challenges possible in the future doesn't make them an organization of murderers or conspirators.

Tell you what, we'll come back in a year and if the world population drops to even 4 billion, and Bill Gates is found to have participated in pharmacutical genocide, I'll kiss your ass right in the middle of Times Square during rush hour.

[Virgil Showlion]

Let's see...

In just four paragraphs you've claimed my comments are "nonsense" and that you've "discredited" them (remind me where that happened again?). You're throwing out Mr. Wells without even a hint of what he's written in non-fiction, for no reason other than he's famous for his science fiction work. You don't even acknowledge the other authors. You're talking about "NATO alliance", "pharmacutical [sic] companies", "global corporations", which you've pulled completely out of thin air.

You're denying that Decoy is front and center on your list o' posters to discredit, despite half the predictions rattled off in the OP being exclusively his. You then bemoan "If only you'd let us go into his thread." (presumably so you can discredit "MANY posters, past and present", and certainly not Decoy, there). A cursory examination of your comment record shows that easily 70% of it is devoted to flaming Decoy, with the bulk of the 30% non-Decoy-related comment having come in the few months since Moon personally installed the "chokehold" hack to prevent you from posting in his threads.

After several months of negligible posting activity induced by the chokehold, you start up a thread about how horribly "MANY posters, past and present"'s predictions have failed. When I post on the topic of our specific predictions from last year and propose a new contest, you compare me to a trained dog, wrongly presume I espouse Decoy's theories, confuse NATO with the UN, demand clarification on a comment I made last year, and when I indulge you, demand proof, PROOF! NOW VIRGIL!! when I've repeatedly told both you and Mr. Ham that I have zero interest in debating the subject with you.

Now you've thrown in Bill Gates, "pharmacutical [sic] genocide", the world population dropping to 4 billion in one year for some reason. You've made no indication whatsoever that you acknowledge (or have even read) my description of what is meant by "genocide". You refuse to read books. You don't want to listen to podcasts. You have zero motivation for self-directed research. Frankly, I'd have an easier time (and more fun) bench pressing a 747 than persuading you to reevaluate your world outlook.

That about it?

Yes, many of Decoy's (and Mid and VL, etc., etc.) theories are nutty, I admit. Some are absurd. Some have already proven false. You've made your point.

My only remaining contribution to this thread are some predictions for this time next year:

1. Assad will no longer be in control of Syria (or very close to being deposed). Damascus will be a smoking ruin ravaged by war. The media will (as usual) be crowing about "peace and freedom", while the only group poised to seize power in Syria will be a fundamentalist Islamic "party" led by a charismatic leader.

2. Egypt will most likely not be controlled by the military, despite the power balance presently having shifted back that way.

3. Europe will possibly have dissolved its current economic union by October of this year. Most likely, however, there will still only be "talk" of such things, with Germany having pledged ridiculous amounts of money to hold the union together, and with the PIIGS bonds with yields up in the stratosphere. The "talk" will center primarily around the creation of a two-tiered Europe, with the "good tier" being a multinational political as well as economic union. Germany will be at its head.

4. The US public debt will be in excess of $18.00 T, and despite actual unemployment having risen by 1%, the U3 "unemployment" rate reported by the BLS will have dropped by nearly 0.5%.

5. Food prices will be at least 10% higher than at present across the US.

6. Pres. Obama will win a second term.

7. The US labour force participation rate will be at all-time lows.

8. The number of US families on food stamps will be at an all-time high, and will have risen monotonically from now until then.


If you care to challenge any of the above, please do and we'll make a contest of it.

[texasredneck]

Virgil RIGHT ON! Karma for you.

[frankq]

Virgil,

You're right. I mistakenly stated NATO. I meant the U.N. But misstate I did and stand corrected.

"Yes, many of Decoy's (and Mid and VL, etc., etc.) theories are nutty, I admit. Some are absurd. Some have already proven false. You've made your point."

Thank you.


"You're denying that Decoy is front and center on your list o' posters to discredit, despite half the predictions rattled off in the OP being exclusively his"

Please see the header. It's the "Whatever Happened To" thread. No mention of Decoy there. Posters are free to add whatever "prophacies" from whomever posters that they recall from whatever time frame they want so that we may see what has developed and what hasn't. I don't know what you're bitching about as you are doing most of the posting. If half of the the predictions are his, it is because he's posted exponentially more and started more of these types of threads than any other poster out here. If that offends you, oh well...I really don't care what you want to indulge or care if you contribute to this thread or any other. History has shown that such "contributions" are minimal. Don't try to bait me with this kind of nonsense.

"The bottom line is that the "optimum population" per the published mandate is less than a tenth of Earth's current population, and these people do not sit on their hands. They have an agenda and they fully intend to carry it out. The "Big Boys" are unimaginably wealthy, corrupt, and totally convinced they're doing the world a favour."

"My view remains: yes, it's "gentle genocide", but it's still genocide."

You are certainly entitled to your view as well as your "definition" of genocide. I'm not going to play word games with you. I assume you guys have dictionaries in Canada.

[frankq]

Regarding the contest by number:

1. I agree Assad will be gone. And since they are Islamics in that part of the world, yes a government with Islamic roots is a pretty good guess.

2. As far a the Egyptian government, a year is a blink of the eye. It will take years to develop a sustainable democratic style of government. Just like it did here.

3. Germany will run the show on the European Union. Greece will be out. They're not worth the effort.

4,5,7 and 8 really depend on #6. That's a tough one. Even though the U.S. is a great country, we have a lot of stupid people with voter cards that live here. We have even more "undocumented immigrants", (we can't call them illegals anymore because.....it's true) many of which may end up voting anyway. What can I say. I'm going to call Obama the loser on this one out of sheer hope.

Now:

Gold will be nowhere near $3000/oz. A QE3 will boost gold maybe 10%, but it will fall back to below current levels with any economic uptick. If the republicans win the White House, gold drops 15% over the year.

The markets will be around 10% above present levels.

[kman]

Have to agree with Q! Level headed predictions. ....Virgil,,,,,,,? decoy is a paid poster.....The # of copy and paste words alone are suspect. Unfortunately each word adjusted by his own calculations is only worth $00.03

Very consistent as far as word #s are concerned. His technique is probably already copywriten..Tickets on me to Peter Gabriel this fall in Toronto ..I'll make the 4 hour drive up and buy you tickets Virgil..decoy is a sham ..like Bernie

[frankq]

How goes it Kman you madman!! I think Virgil's mad at me...LOL

[kman]

I manage Q...Sick wife going through Hep C treatment.....Yoga girl never did drugs.....payin the price of what American Solders Brut back from Viet-Nam....Future son-in - law over in Afganifreakinstan.....My 19 year old purchased a ticket and Euro pass and has decided to tour Europe by backpack....normal weekend...I dropped off my son's mother at 3 AM to fly to Guatemala for charity surgery work...I need a Knapp..

[Virgil Showlion]

Very consistent as far as word #s are concerned. His technique is probably already copywriten..Tickets on me to Peter Gabriel this fall in Toronto ..I'll make the 4 hour drive up and buy you tickets Virgil..decoy is a sham ..like Bernie

Who's paying him? What site(s) is he being paid to promote?

Sorry to hear about your wife. Hep C isn't anything to mess around with.

How goes it Kman you madman!! I think Virgil's mad at me...LOL

I'm not mad at you. I'm glad you put up your predictions.

I don't agree with gold dropping 15% with Republicans retaking the White House. They've demonstrated no more willingness than the Democrats to get spending under control, despite all their rhetoric. And should Mr. Romney get into the White House and even hint at raising taxes, the Republicans will lose the Senate and the US will have "lame duck president" 2014 edition.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jul 7, 2012 21:51:34 GMT -5 kman said:

Yup Aman and they have a name.....Only they will not say it....

I know right? As if we can't tell...

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jul 7, 2012 21:53:56 GMT -5 kman said:

Aman..Your way over the curve...LOL

LOL.. Classic.. Apparently there might be some math named after me at some point bra.. You know how it will go, don't focus so much on the presents for your future projections, its ALL about the past to see the future.. Oh ya and I see the replacement thing went right over head...

Come to think of it; it's almost like something happened in the 60's that changed the course of human history, again, was intensified by technology and INTERNET doom and gloom in the 90's, and is now coming to ahead and people are finding that they want balance.. HMMMM.... Thanks JC!

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

LOL, I just thought of something else as 1 of my 3 kids, with fourth on the way, was up and wanting water...

www.thefreedictionary.com/fertility+rate
fertility rate - the ratio of live births in an area to the population of that area; expressed per 1000 population per year

... Hmm what's that ratio again? Should we ask China maybe? It's not like they are turning to NA for all the answers now or anything...

[frankq]

Chin up Kman. My best to Mrs. K and future son-in-law. You get the award for having the most stuff going on for sure.

"Come to think of it; it's almost like something happened in the 60's that changed the course of human history,"

The 60's were the most tumultuous time in the nations' history. Changed us forever for both the good and the bad in some ways. As the U.S. goes, so goes the world for the most part.

[Driftr]

Jul 7, 2012 21:48:24 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Sorry since 1970 not 1980, the fertility rate in Canada has hovered around 1.7 aka GROWTH, just not replacement. Get it? Still more, just not explosive.

Ham, ham, ham. blocked due to malware warnings/smilies/imgs/disdain/disdain002_2.gif

[/img]

Time for a crash refresher course in high school math.

Firstly, the fertility rate by definition is "average number of children born per woman in Canada", or, if you prefer "average number of children born per couple in Canada", which is the same thing (it takes two to make a baby).

If every couple is having exactly two children on average (i.e. replacing themselves), intuitively we expect the population to remain stable. No growth. No decay. People are born, replace themselves, and die off. Over amortized time, the population remains unchanged.

Now, as I have pointed out, the "replacement rate" is actually closer to 2.1 children per couple since (for historical reasons) women not yet of childbearing age are not counted as "women with 0 children" when calculating the average. Some women do, however, die before puberty. Intuitively, this means means that the fertility rate must be slightly greater than 2.0 to compensate.

Supposing a parent generation has x individuals (meaning x/2 women), if each woman has r children on average, the child generation will have xr/2 individuals. 2.0/2.1 ~= 95% of these children will survive to child-bearing age, meaning that the child generation will have xr/2.1 fertile individuals. Simple algebra.

Let t be the time in years passed since a reference time 0, and let g be the average length of a generational cycle (roughly 21 years). The number of generations passed over time t is then t/g, and with x as the initial population at time 0, the population after t years is given by x_now = x*(r/2.1)^(t/g), again by high school math and our above derivation of the constant of proportionality between generations (r/2.1).

Simple inspection shows us that if r < 2.1, we have a decaying exponential curve. If r > 2.1, we have a rising exponential. If r = 2.1, as stated before, we have every couple simply replacing themselves.

Consider Canada over the 21st century (at r ~= 1.7, the current "baby bump", and at r ~= 1.55, the average over the past three decades) starting at 33 M people and omitting immigration from foreign countries:



In case in it's obvious, we're dying off rather quickly.

You're seeing what you want to in a nothing blip in the data. "Dawn of the tech age" in 1995 is a Hamburgerian myth. Show me one article anywhere on earth that calls the mid-90's the "dawn of the tech age" and I'll eat my hat.

The blip doesn't even occur in the Statscan data, which I trust more than whatever database Google is pulling their numbers from.

And no, the range 1.5-1.7 is not "hovering around" 2.0, as the plot above clearly shows in terms of implications.

I will take that as you have ZERO conviction in what you're talking about.

Take it however you want. I've offered you a podcast, several books, and the starting point for an Internet search. I'm "pawning [MY] ideas off" in response to Frank Q's direct queries about the subject.

You've rejected my one-year prediction challenge. There is zero profit in my continuing this debate.[/quote]

Always a pleasure watching you work.

[Virgil Showlion]

It's not like they are turning to NA for all the answers now or anything...

I'm not disputing that.

Hong Kong, the most prosperous city state in China, was a former British colony and shared in her blessings.

Always a pleasure watching you work.

You could say I've had a king's share of hamburgers and franks over the past few days.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Chin up Kman. My best to Mrs. K and future son-in-law. You get the award for having the most stuff going on for sure.

Kman is a class act that is for sure!

The 60's were the most tumultuous time in the nations' history. Changed us forever for both the good and the bad in some ways. As the U.S. goes, so goes the world for the most part.

Exactly, TEAM USA has always been about freedom, the most universal desire there is...

I see that Virg is finally getting it Q, even if this demographic problem seems to be flying right over head around here... ;D

Quote:

It's not like they are turning to NA for all the answers now or anything...

I'm not disputing that.

Hong Kong, the most prosperous city state in China, was a former British colony and shared in her blessings.

[/size][/quote]

WAS a superpower eh?

[Virgil Showlion]

Well, I'll keep you guys around. Because if a meteor strikes the US and the only things left are a giant smoking crater and several million giant irradiated cockroaches, you two will be the only two men left alive insisting that things are better than ever, cockroach milk is the bright future of the US economy, and "we recovered from the 1980's recession; we'll recover from this".

It will be good to have that kind of fanatical optimism around while I'm roasting roach giblets over a spit.

[decoy409]

Well one of them stated the old casino is clocked in at 13,200 and rising

Along with gld headed to 900 or less

Along with the great world rebound in manufacturing and work

And the whole time just the opposite has been occuring

So with your world in decline and dealers saying no to more Ben & Dimon ice cream,who will pick up the tab now?

Oh that's right! The same folks that have been picking it up? Not really,but it looks good on clickity-click PAPER!

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jul 9, 2012 13:59:52 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Well, I'll keep you guys around. Because if a meteor strikes the US and the only things left are a giant smoking crater and several million giant irradiated cockroaches, you two will be the only two men left alive insisting that things are better than ever, cockroach milk is the bright future of the US economy, and "we recovered from the 1980's recession; we'll recover from this".

It will be good to have that kind of fanatical optimism around while I'm roasting roach giblets over a spit.

Virg, Virg, Virg. That's 7 BILLION not million..

How about the USA came back from the Great Depression is that better than the 80's?

What can I say, Q's predictions make more sense to me.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

As far as relentlessness positive...

China takes stance on ME, Here we go.
notmsnmoney.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=perspectives&action=display&thread=19873

The Many Issues That China and Yuan Still Have
notmsnmoney.proboards.com/index.cgi?board=perspectives&action=display&thread=19874

Just for a few BALANCED points of view.

[decoy409]

Don't know about that so called balance and strength being referred to in the second one there as,

excerpt - Buying power of one U.S. dollar compared to 1774 USD:

Year Value
1774 $1.00 1870 $0.62 1970 $0.20
1780 $0.59 1880 $0.79 1980 $0.10
1790 $0.89 1890 $0.89 1990 $0.06
1800 $0.64 1900 $0.96 2000 $0.05
1810 $0.66 1910 $0.85 2007 $0.04
1820 $0.69 1920 $0.39 2008 $0.04
1830 $0.88 1930 $0.47 2009 $0.04
1840 $0.94 1940 $0.56 2010 $0.03

www.huliq.com/10128/us-dollar-dec....-history-lesson

That so called strength looks to be credit based with a I.O.U. promise.

But credits are good as we all have some in our pocket.

[decoy409]

Why since 1950 you have been on a severe drop and not once have you come back up in value.

So if you could explain where the purchasing power has erroded to along with that drop starting long ago,and how you see this credit based system as a blessing when it has done no more than to indebt by the trillions upon trillions,that would be something!

[jarhead1976]

The Federal Reserve said Monday that consumer borrowing rose by $17.1 billion in May from April.

The increase drove total borrowing to a seasonally adjusted $2.57 trillion. That's just below the all-time high of $2.58 trillion reached in July 2008.

Debt the taste of the future.
www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57468853/americans-borrowed-more-on-credit-cards-in-may

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jul 9, 2012 15:23:47 GMT -5 decoy409 said:

Don't know about that so called balance and strength being referred to in the second one there as,

excerpt - Buying power of one U.S. dollar compared to 1774 USD:

Year Value
1774 $1.00 1870 $0.62 1970 $0.20
1780 $0.59 1880 $0.79 1980 $0.10
1790 $0.89 1890 $0.89 1990 $0.06
1800 $0.64 1900 $0.96 2000 $0.05
1810 $0.66 1910 $0.85 2007 $0.04
1820 $0.69 1920 $0.39 2008 $0.04
1830 $0.88 1930 $0.47 2009 $0.04
1840 $0.94 1940 $0.56 2010 $0.03

www.huliq.com/10128/us-dollar-dec....-history-lesson

That so called strength looks to be credit based with a I.O.U. promise.

But credits are good as we all have some in our pocket.

Mr. T, you at one time bragged up a vast knowledge of history claiming that things never change. Talking about strange planets that were destined to crash into Earth. Solar Flairs(or the Norther lights as we have called them since grade school up here..) That were going to cause huge power outages. (Up here it just been the RAIN and WIND as it is EVERY year that has cause power outages).

And after everything that you have learned from me you still don't get that it's called mutually assure destruction, with success through balance. It all started as a freeing the slaves thing way back when and has morphed into what it is now..

An old Church in Israel backs up what I'm saying, but hey, that only goes back 1900 yrs or so. The info you go off of has been wrong since the mid 90's, at least, and it still holds true to that form. It's like it TERRORIZES people Mr. T..

Archaeologists unveil ancient church in Israel
Discovery made on prison grounds near biblical site Armageddon
www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9950210/ns/technology_and_science-science/t/archaeologists-unveil-ancient-church-israel/

The discovery of the church in the northern Israeli town of Megiddo, near the biblical Armageddon, was hailed by experts as an important discovery that could reveal details about the development of the early church in the region.

Archaeologists said the church dated from the third century, decades before Constantine legalized Christianity across the Byzantine Empire.
“What’s clear today is that it’s the oldest archaeological remains of a church in Israel, maybe even in the entire region. Whether in the entire world, it’s still too early to say,” said Yotam Tepper, the excavation’s head archaeologist............

................Two mosaics inside the church — one covered with fish, an ancient Christian symbol that predated the widespread use of the cross symbol.