Farming and the Current State of Food Production

[tyfighter3]

I keep wondering about Buffalo Wild Wings. How will this Bird-Flu affect them. Alright now but in a few months if chicken gets scarce, what then?

[bimetalaupt]

May 4, 2015 22:23:52 GMT -5 tyfighter3 said:

I keep wondering about Buffalo Wild Wings. How will this Bird-Flu affect them. Alright now but in a few months if chicken gets scarce, what then?

TEXAS POULTRY PRODUCTION BIRDS HAVE MIGRATED FROM TEXAS:




POULTRY PRODUCTION. Various types of poultry have been raised in Texas since the Spanish period, but commercial production did not begin until the 1840s and was extremely limited until the twentieth century. Most families raised their own poultry, and there was little market for any excess. The 1890 census shows 11,523,117 chickens, 535,916 turkeys, 528,140 geese, and 391,086 ducks on farms in Texas. A production of 32,466,433 dozen eggs was reported that year. In 1900 Texas ranked first among states in number of turkeys, third in geese, fourth in ducks, fifth in chickens, and ninth in eggs. In 1904 eggs averaged twelve cents a dozen, chickens twenty-two cents a pound, and turkeys twelve cents a pound (live weight). Many incubators were in use by 1904.

The Texas Co-operative Poultry Producers' Association was organized by 1914. A census of poultry on Texas farms that year showed 12,719,572 chickens, 363,666 turkeys, 74,910 ducks, 244,991 geese, 170,107 guinea fowls, 95,625 pigeons, 12 ostriches, and 762 of all other types of birds. More than twenty million chickens were produced in 1926, and egg production was estimated at over 65,000,000 dozen. By 1926 Cuero in DeWitt County was the established commercial turkey-raising center, though fourteen other Texas cities shipped carload lots. In 1933 Texas was still the largest turkey producer in the nation. Many large poultry-dressing and egg-breaking plants were in operation. In 1929 89,465,537 dozen eggs were sold, and 36,275,063 chickens were raised. Shipments of turkeys in 1932 included 1,574 cars of dressed and eighty-eight cars of live turkeys.

During the early 1950s Texas led the nation in the production of commercial turkey hatchery eggs. The leading turkey-raising counties during this time were DeWitt, Gonzales, and Fayette, but to a lesser extent turkeys were raised in all but three counties in the state. Eggs and chickens were produced in every county in the state in 1950; the leading counties were Fayette, Lavaca, Williamson, Washington, and Gonzales. The leading breed of chickens during the 1950s was the Leghorn, and the leading breed of turkeys was the broad breasted bronze. Many hatcherymen and poultrymen operated under the National Poultry Improvement Plan, which stressed the development of high-producing strains and pullorum-free flocks. There were approximately 640 hatcheries in the state during the early 1950s. Between 1953 and 1963 cash income from poultry, including chickens, broilers, eggs, and turkeys, ranged from $128 million to over $157 million annually. Commercial broilers normally exceeded 100 million birds per year. In 1960 126,885 farms raised chickens, 2,409 raised broilers, 49,620 sold eggs, and 11,297 raised turkeys. Leading counties in poultry sales during this period were Shelby, Nacogdoches, and Gonzales. The gross income from poultry production in 1963 was $163 million.

In 1968 Texas ranked fifth in the nation in turkey raising, eighth in production of chickens and eggs, and sixth in broiler production. In all, poultry and egg production amounted to just over 7 percent of the state's farm income in 1968. In 1972 the gross income of Texas producers was $4,700,000 from farm chickens, $75,404,000 from eggs, $93,790,000 from broilers, and $33,794,000 from turkeys. Sales from turkey hatching eggs, ducks, geese, quail, pigeons, and other poultry items grossed approximately $5,000,000 annually. In 1974 Texas ranked ninth among states in number of hens and pullets, seventh in broiler production, tenth in egg production, and fifth in turkey production. The value of Texas exports in poultry products in 1978 was $16,800,000. By the late 1980s poultry and eggs annually contributed 6 percent of the average yearly cash receipts of Texas farmers. In 1987 cash receipts from production of broilers, eggs, chickens, and turkeys totaled $591,561,000. In 1988 Texas ranked seventh among states in broilers produced, tenth in hens, and seventh in eggs produced. In 1988 the state produced 3.36 billion eggs, valued at $144,000,000; the leading egg-producing counties were Angelina, Camp, Brazos, Fayette, Lavaca, and Gonzales. Broilers numbered 266,300,000 in 1988 and were valued at $448,000,000. The leading broiler-producing counties were Camp, Caldwell, Panola, Shelby, Titus, Upshur, and Wood

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

May 4, 2015 21:03:37 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

May 2, 2015 15:49:56 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Iowa has become the third state to declare a state of emergency. The virus continues to be found in wild birds, which is the true problem in all of this. At this point, any further spread of the outbreak will without a doubt cause problems for the companies in the supply line.

Got kash?

A++++,

WHERE IS THE BEEF?  WELL MEATLESS MONDAY ARE NOT THAT BAD FOR THE HEART!! HOW ABOUT ALFALFA TO INCREASE THE PROTEIN FEED FOR THE COWS!!  BLACK ANGUS CHOISE STAKES ARE NOW ABOUT $20.00 PER LBS!! IN ABILENE. 

ALMONDS TAKE ONE GALLON OF WATER PER NUT. 

Just a thought,

BimetalAuPt

I hear ya. Been skipping on the petite tenderloins the last couple weeks. Yes, get growing that alfalfa already!

Worm tea water!! One billion worms will produce how much tea? I guess we're going to find out!

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

May 4, 2015 22:23:52 GMT -5 tyfighter3 said:

I keep wondering about Buffalo Wild Wings. How will this Bird-Flu affect them. Alright now but in a few months if chicken gets scarce, what then?

We are going to find out my friend. As we know birds travel south for the winter - great story Bruce - and the real problem with this flu is that it's being spread by wild birds.

Considering how much it's spreading around right now in what would not typically be called a flu season, this winter could get nasty if it gets into the southern flock.

[bimetalaupt]

May 6, 2015 1:21:07 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

May 4, 2015 22:23:52 GMT -5 tyfighter3 said:

I keep wondering about Buffalo Wild Wings. How will this Bird-Flu affect them. Alright now but in a few months if chicken gets scarce, what then?

We are going to find out my friend. As we know birds travel south for the winter - great story Bruce - and the real problem with this flu is that it's being spread by wild birds.

Considering how much it's spreading around right now in what would not typically be called a flu season, this winter could get nasty if it gets into the southern flock.

You know that the chicken industry will be using flu vaccine like they already do for Salmonella.  We have been looking for a huge reduction in the wild bird flock in Abilene, TX: did not happen in 2015 spring.  Fried Tofu with vegetables?  Meatless Monday.   .

There is no variation in making Vaccine with E. Coli for animal or man.  A vaccine could be ready by June if needed and funded.   

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Confirming our suspicions that this bird flu is going to affect companies in the turkey and chicken supply line, Hormel foods has cuts jobs in Minnesota.

Meanwhile, the virus creeps across Missouri, prompts more culling - confirming that the virus is spreading south.

I'm not one to short stocks, but I will be picking up a few of these companies that will be beaten up by bad news.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

May 6, 2015 20:24:33 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

May 6, 2015 1:21:07 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

We are going to find out my friend. As we know birds travel south for the winter - great story Bruce - and the real problem with this flu is that it's being spread by wild birds.

Considering how much it's spreading around right now in what would not typically be called a flu season, this winter could get nasty if it gets into the southern flock.

You know that the chicken industry will be using flu vaccine like they already do for Salmonella.  We have been looking for a huge reduction in the wild bird flock in Abilene, TX: did not happen in 2015 spring.  Fried Tofu with vegetables?  Meatless Monday.   .

There is no variation in making Vaccine with E. Coli for animal or man.  A vaccine could be ready by June if needed and funded.   

It will need to be ready by June. They FEDs have already upped the farm assistance program from 84 to over 300 million dollars.

The problem will be solved, but it's going to hit some bottom lines there is no doubt about that.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

....

Post Swings to Profit; Larger Bird-Flu Impact Seen

The company also provided more details on chickens at one of its suppliers testing positive for bird flu. On Thursday, Post said it now estimates that 14% of its egg supply has been affected as a result, up from its initial estimate of 10%.

supply gaps reported by Cub Foods, metro area’s biggest grocer; Lunds & Byerlys, and Kowalski’s.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Well, bimetalaupt, I was going to go for a meatless Monday. Mexican rice and black beans, shredded lettuce, tomatoes, salsa with a splash of lime, etc, etc... However, the petite tenderloins were on for a great price so it's: Seasoned beef on the BBQ, oven roasted potatoes, and a big cesar salad..

[bimetalaupt]

A++++,

Cal-Maine just finished a 5 million hen laying operation in North Texas ( Red River Area) and the stock is up some 40% this year.  Texas has been a leading egg producer and it looks like this will be very profitable.  So lets keep "CALM"

JUST A THOUGHT,

BUY CHICKEN ( BLACK SEX LINK) FOR THE EGGS,

BiMetalAuPt

Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM) -NasdaqGS  Watchlist


48.91 Up 5.91(13.74%) 3:06PM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price

Egg producer Cal-Maine Foods (NASDAQ:CALM) rocketed 16% in heavy volume, jumping above a 47.61 buy point of a cup-with-handle base. The reason for the spike wasn't immediately clear.

Read More At Investor's Business Daily: news.investors.com/investing-stock-market-today/051115-751989-stocks-mixed-in-lower-volume.htm#ixzz3ZrJzn4iL
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[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

,

I hear ya. The whole sector outperformed last year due to the bird flu in China capping gains through 2013. What's that about history repeating itself??

Great point about TX becoming a top egg producer, yep - as both strains are moving west, and probably south. Chances are it will be stopped before we see a decimation all through the south too.

Keeping calm ready with a kash bomb.

[bimetalaupt]

May 11, 2015 21:08:00 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

,

I hear ya. The whole sector outperformed last year due to the bird flu in China capping gains through 2013. What's that about history repeating itself??

Great point about TX becoming a top egg producer, yep - as both strains are moving west, and probably south. Chances are it will be stopped before we see a decimation all through the south too.

Keeping calm ready with a kash bomb.

A+++,

Market is down and CALM is up (again)   Egg power in Texas.  The area near Stephenville TX is full of Egg production.  Many of my class mates in 1965 worked at the largest operation.   CALM now is at a price that reflects DCF but with of eggs production and high prices ?  PE of 16.88 and a PEG of 0.91 better growth stock then FB or GOOG

Just a thought,

BiMetalAuPt

Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM) -NasdaqGS  Watchlist


51.14 Up 1.69(3.42%) 4:00PM EDT

After Hours : 51.14 0.00 (0.00%) 5:13PM EDT

[bimetalaupt]

Cal-Maine Foods hits record high as brokerage raises price target - theflyonthewall
4:00 PM ET, 05/11/2015 - Reuters

May 11 (Reuters) - Egg supplier Cal-Maine Foods Inc's shares touched a record high on Monday, after theflyonthewall.com said research firm Sidoti & Co raised its price target on the stock, citing better egg pricing power following a shortage of birds after an outbreak of avian influenza in the United States.

FROM CHUCK
The outbreak has resulted in nearly 28 million birds being quarantined, presenting Cal-Maine with an opportunity to grow its higher-margin egg-breaking operations, Sidoti & Co analysts wrote in a note, raising their price target to $67 from $51.

BB&T analysts also believe that flock culling could support a spike in egg prices.

Cal-Maine's shares rose as much as 17.8 percent to a record high of $50.69, with more than 2.6 million shares traded by 3:45 pm E.T, over double the stock's 10-day moving average.

The United States is undergoing its worst-ever outbreak of avian flu. The disease has spread across 14 states in five months, affecting about 24 million birds so far, mostly egg-laying hens and turkeys, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

Economic ripples from the outbreak are being felt across numerous sectors, from food companies seeing a squeeze on egg supplies to meat processors flooded with excess poultry products amid export market bans.

Many investors are betting against Cal-Maine's stock, with short interest on nearly 16 percent of the company's outstanding shares.

Of the two brokerages covering the stock, one has a "strong buy" rating and one rates it "hold". The median price target is $44.25, according to Thomson Reuters data.

Cal-Maine's shares were up 14.6 percent at $49.35 in late afternoon trading on Monday. Up to Friday's close, the stock had risen 10 percent this year. (Reporting by Yashaswini Swamynathan in Bengaluru; Editing by Simon Jennings)

[bimetalaupt]

May 12, 2015 17:59:14 GMT -5 @patstab said:

Not into stocks of food companies, but am into food! I just added 10 chickens from a local producer to my freezer and may add 10 more to get by for some time. Their birds are expensive, but are farm raised and excellent. They raise locally beef, pork, and lamb. Those will last us at least 6 months, if I add 10 more, but I doubt the bird flu runs its course in that short of a time.. 

I worry about bird flu also and hope it gets under control, we have quite a few turkey operations around here, also lots of wild geese and ducks in this area around here.

GOAL,

THE vast investment and high capital cost has limited most Cow and Calf operation Around Abilene, TX to family operations.  We have added more Alfalfa to the Our Kermit Deer operation for more protein. We have looked into a free RANGE SYSTEM FOR THE GOOSE.  ANY THOUGHT ON THE NEW BLACK SEX-LINK egg producers? I have a friend that has 12 of the large and $$$$ bird.  She has them vaccinated for Salmonella. 

Best to you too,

BiMetalAuPt

[bimetalaupt]

May 12, 2015 20:17:21 GMT -5 @patstab said:

Where we live 12 miles from town we are overrun with deer and wild turkeys, lots of fishing wild geese, and ducks.

I just bought again, coyote urine packets to hang on my fruit trees, something to chase the deer away

GOAL,

DO YOU HAVE WHITE TAIL DEER OR BLACK TAIL( MULE).  YOU NEED TO HUNT THEM OR THEY WILL OVER POPULATE.  WE HAVE SAND HILL CRANES THAT CAN EMPTY A Cat Fish pond in a few Days. big birds.  Deer are no problems as we have big dogs and in fact feed the deer a lot of corn.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

May 12, 2015 16:36:28 GMT -5 bimetalaupt said:

May 11, 2015 21:08:00 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

,

I hear ya. The whole sector outperformed last year due to the bird flu in China capping gains through 2013. What's that about history repeating itself??

Great point about TX becoming a top egg producer, yep - as both strains are moving west, and probably south. Chances are it will be stopped before we see a decimation all through the south too.

Keeping calm ready with a kash bomb.

A+++,

Market is down and CALM is up (again)   Egg power in Texas.  The area near Stephenville TX is full of Egg production.  Many of my class mates in 1965 worked at the largest operation.   CALM now is at a price that reflects DCF but with of eggs production and high prices ?  PE of 16.88 and a PEG of 0.91 better growth stock then FB or GOOG

Just a thought,

BiMetalAuPt

Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM) -NasdaqGS  Watchlist


51.14 Up 1.69(3.42%) 4:00PM EDT

After Hours : 51.14 0.00 (0.00%) 5:13PM EDT

,

That's where I'm at with it. On one hand if it stays contained to the current areas, CALM will need to open three more farms this year to sell eggs at 50-60% higher than current prices. So yeah, growth.

However, it's in the wild bird population... Everything could soon be on sale...

God bless,

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

@patstab, until Bruce brought up CALM I was just going to wait to see what happens over the next few months. Our family eats chicken on a regular basis and I like to direct our investment dollars towards what we use.

From how much CALM has run up over the last few days it looks like most are anticipating TX to become a major egg player. To me it seems like speculation that the flu isn't going to affect the south. At this point we are likely to see fowl related companies under perform the market which will make them a great buy next year. If the flu doesn't spread further than it is now, CALM will likely double in the next year due to increased production and margin.

Sounds like the power company should tranquilize some deer and move them to other parts of the country which have seen a problem with this weird wasting type disease. It's great thet are using methane from the old mines, regardless of why they did it.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Sounds like a great place to live! Sorry, but what do socks have to do with where you live? Or where you meaning about the food stuff?

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Socks are coming from All American Clothing... Well there and auto correct. I meant stocks.. Which I agree have nothing to do with housing. That is a debt thing. Having a nice place to retire to is an essential.

[bimetalaupt]

Tyson expects to incur synergies of $400 million in fiscal 2016 and $600 million in fiscal 2017.

Tyson is transforming itself from a protein processor with one brand to a protein-centric consumer packaged goods company with a house of brands.

The processed food business has been performing above the normalized level for several quarters. Chicken nuggets, chicken sandwiches, wings, meatball sandwiches and bone-in chicken have been witnessing higher growth over the past few years, as an increasing number of health-conscious consumers are opting for chicken instead of red meat due to the associated health risks. Moreover, with consumption trend shifting away from high-priced beef, chicken demand is expected to go up, going ahead

Tyson also commented that its growth story is driven by its brands. The company owns leading brands in 13 core categories. Moreover, per IRI data, Tyson reported the second highest retail dollar sales growth for the last 52-week period.

Tyson made a solid start to fiscal 2015, as sales in the first half of the year jumped 16.8% to $20.8 billion. Earnings of $1.52 increased 15.2% year over year backed by improvement in sales and higher operating margins.

Tyson also expects overall domestic protein production (chicken, beef, pork and turkey) to increase roughly 2% in fiscal 2015. Also, the company expects grain supplies to go up in fiscal 2015.

Tyson carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

That's exactly it the , companies like Tyson foods are good companies to own because everyone needs to eat. So when they are beaten up due to problems out of their control, it's a matter of buying on sale, not - this is the end of it all.

Egg Farms Hit Hard as Bird Flu Affects Millions of Hens

Deadly avian flu viruses have affected more than 33 million turkeys, chickens and ducks in more than a dozen states since December. The toll at Center Fresh farms alone accounts for nearly 17 percent of the nation’s poultry that has either been killed by bird flu or is being euthanized to prevent its spread.

While farmers in Asia and elsewhere have had to grapple with avian flu epidemics, no farmers in the United States have ever confronted a health crisis among livestock like this one, which seemed to travel along migratory bird pathways from the Pacific Northwest to the Midwestern states. Almost every day brings confirmation by the Agriculture Department that at least another hundred thousand or so birds must be destroyed; some days, the number exceeds several million....

....Iowa, where one in every five eggs consumed in the country is laid, has been the hardest hit: More than 40 percent of its egg-laying hens are dead or dying....

...The losses also affect a wide range of support businesses, ranging from bank lenders and insurers to trucking operations, feed mills and farmers. “It’s devastating to the producers and devastating to this whole area,” said Mark Sybesma, chairman of the Sioux County Board of Supervisors.

[bimetalaupt]

A++++,

My Tiger Worms are laying very well. I had seen a house in New Mexico that had chicken coups over the owners worm pits. The compose was moved to the vegetable garden in the spring and the corn did well.    Organic farming at its best.  We hope to start some beans on the ranch test water concentrator this spring to grow  some enchanted Indian beans.   The stock I bought is at least 2,000 years old from the Anastasia tribe.

Just a thought,

BiMetalAuPt    

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

, that's interesting because our friend K.S. is big into chicken feed. He has an organic feed that has his customers chickens laying eggs with stronger eggshells, and yolks. To the point where cheifs have gone exclusive to the eggs because it helps their bottom line.

Talk about a great way to help increase production at the worm farm with having some organic chicken manure. Yes, I have the tarmac pics ready to go. Know anyone who wants organic chicken feed and we would have two streams.

God bless,

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

May 7, 2015 23:34:27 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

....

Post Swings to Profit; Larger Bird-Flu Impact Seen

The company also provided more details on chickens at one of its suppliers testing positive for bird flu. On Thursday, Post said it now estimates that 14% of its egg supply has been affected as a result, up from its initial estimate of 10%.

supply gaps reported by Cub Foods, metro area’s biggest grocer; Lunds & Byerlys, and Kowalski’s.

Post Holdings says 35 percent of egg supply now affected by bird flu

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

As the flu continues to spread, the affects on business continues to show.

Whataburger Cuts Breakfast Hours Due To Egg Shortage

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Things are developing quicker than I had anticipated. This is going to get real interesting.

H-E-B restricts egg sales after bird flu outbreak in the Midwest

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Egg prices double due to bird flu, Big Y, Stop & Shop say

D'Amour-Daley said egg prices might also drive up the prices of some baked goods and sauces.

"It's a shame, because eggs area source of cheap protein for some people," she said.

Big Y is working to absorb as much of the price increase as it can and not pass all of it on to consumers.

Local bakeries feeling impact of egg shortage and bird flu

[bimetalaupt]

Jun 6, 2015 23:19:49 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Egg prices double due to bird flu, Big Y, Stop & Shop say

D'Amour-Daley said egg prices might also drive up the prices of some baked goods and sauces.

"It's a shame, because eggs area source of cheap protein for some people," she said.

Big Y is working to absorb as much of the price increase as it can and not pass all of it on to consumers.

Local bakeries feeling impact of egg shortage and bird flu

A++++,

There are two sides to this story: The first batch of bird flu  as tried was too weak: I will bet on Black-sex linked and the stronger vaccine ( 4XXXX).  Both made by bacteria (modified E-Coli): BioTech. Like 911 the replacement will be better then what was replaced.

Just my thoughts,

BiMetalAuPt

PS: WE HAVE A GO FROM ERIC

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

,

Chickens laying black eggs?? The vaccine maker is going to make some decent profits, without a doubt. Backlog of 18 months to get caught up, and that's without it still getting worse before the vaccine is ready to go..

Canada Geese in Michigan Discovered to Have Bird Flu

I missed this about Eric. Let me know when you guys want to visit and as soon as I hear from ya, I'll start looking for sites close to town. Wynyard is to far for the start up.

God bless.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Now, to wait and see where this shows up over the next quarter or so. Nothing better than knowing about a sale before it happens.

Bird flu-related egg shortage cutting into profits, menu items for restaurants big and small