The current state of the stock markets

[Value Buy]

The current state of the stock markets..........is very punishing right now.

My oil stocks are falling like I was throwing knives at my feet.

JPM reports tomorrow and I am beginning to think even if they give a good quarterly report and give a good prognosis for the fourth quarter, it will still drop.

I was worried we would see a pop on the benchmarks this morning and then a slight fall through the day. Not much of a pop this morning, but up and down all day, but the last 45 minutes today was brutal.

[Value Buy]

Oct 13, 2014 18:43:24 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

The current state of the stock markets..........is very punishing right now.

My oil stocks are falling like I was throwing knives at my feet.

JPM reports tomorrow and I am beginning to think even if they give a good quarterly report and give a good prognosis for the fourth quarter, it will still drop.

I was worried we would see a pop on the benchmarks this morning and then a slight fall through the day. Not much of a pop this morning, but up and down all day, but the last 45 minutes today was brutal.

JPM reported and not a terrible report, but not great either, so stock is punished

JNJ reported a good quarter and was punished in the market this morning.

Dow still positive by 50 points right now, but I am thinking we decline again this afternoon

WTI and Brent oil futures still falling again pulling my oil stocks down with them.

I am seeing a serious hit every day to the portfolio, and I do not have any dividend re-investment going in on these low prices, as they have all recently paid at higher stock price levels.

Still feel like this is only a correction, and will close around 18,000 in December.

Then again, if baby boomers are pulling out of IRA'S and 401-k's due to no longer working, maybe we are seeing a shift in market participation.

People replacing baby boomers in the job market are not maxing out 401-k's at the same rate, leaving less money that will be going into stock funds.

I know I am closing out small accounts accumulating money, but not re-investing in the markets right now, as I am entering retirement, I am building up loose cash for a potential out of state land/home purchase for the winter months. It is kind of surprising how many small accounts my wife and I have scattered out there that were not included in our spreadsheets as far as investment money, etc.

Heck, we had 2 small brokerage accounts (different brokers) holding stock shares we knew were out there (received the annual statements) that we never bothered doing anything with over the years, that we terminated recently. Now thinking of cashing some Savings bonds, etc.

Two different Credit Union accounts, one bank account, closed out.

When you think of tens of thousands of baby boomers might be thinking like this right now, we may be seeing a seismic shift of money participation in major mutual funds and even hedge funds right now.

Or maybe the exact opposite of my thoughts will happen............

I have to assume there are tens of thousands of baby boomers making the same decisions out there.

[Ombud]

Oct 14, 2014 10:04:39 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

seismic shift of money participation in major mutual funds and even hedge funds right now.

exacerbated by a smaller pool of pension funds to smooth out the inconsistencies with next generation not at full earning power yet so less 401k inflow while pensions that DO exist exit hedge funds during QE3 unwind?

[Value Buy]

I just punched another hole in my belt to take another notch inward on the belt buckle. Do not want to lose my pants,,,,,,, 

Looks like a really bumpy ride this morning......

Maybe we get the final blowout for a bottom this week?

Dow down 1.7% right now

[Value Buy]

Ten year yield is below 2%

How does it lose.20 in a day?

Fear is out there and running wild.

[Value Buy]

Dow down 300 points in seven minutes...

[Value Buy]

Make it 344 points and S&P futures at 1833 Blowing right through any support

[ArchietheDragon]

and marketwatch.com is down.            This is the end. 

[Value Buy]

Oct 15, 2014 8:40:40 GMT -5 ArchietheDragon said:

and marketwatch.com is down.            This is the end. 

We just might be having the blow out that we need this week.

I will not be checking my portfolio tonight. It will be bloody.

[Value Buy]

Dow is off it's lows now.

Will be fun to see how it trades mid afternoon, and then the final hour.

[damnotagain]

 10 year Bond yields down to 1.9 % . Another QE before a rate increase ?

[Value Buy]

Oct 15, 2014 9:02:41 GMT -5 damnotagain said:

 10 year Bond yields down to 1.9 % . Another QE before a rate increase ?

No, I think another quantitative easing will actually scare the markets and corporations into thinking we are weaker than we actually are.

I think we see status quo, imo

There is no way the Fed raises rates right now anyway, so status quo

[Value Buy]

Darn, looked at the portfolio. Still down 2% and another $5,000 from yesterday.

After the close when mutual funds announce new prices it will be a big hit again.

[Value Buy]

Now we have fear of Ebola on airplanes due to a healthcare worker who was just hospitalized for Ebola who thought it was ok to fly around the country wondering if he was infected...........

I think the CDC has totally failed the American public over this issue.

And I hope everyone that thinks this President has a grip on reality with this issue, would rethink their position. as should he. 

[ModE98]

DOW closing near -173.  Still looking like a "down" week in progress....

[Value Buy]

My portfolio gained 2% on Friday, but still down a year's worth of annual salary just from the last two week's turmoil.

Stomach is still churning.....

[Ombud]

Oct 15, 2014 11:21:47 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Now we have fear of Ebola on airplanes due to a healthcare worker

Carnival Cruise ship cannot dock in Texas due to quarantined Ebola passenger

Bought 2 morgans, thinking of gold coins (not for gold value)

Also down a year's salary. All the way back to where I was in the early spring

[Value Buy]

Oct 18, 2014 10:53:14 GMT -5 Ombud said:

Oct 15, 2014 11:21:47 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Now we have fear of Ebola on airplanes due to a healthcare worker

Carnival Cruise ship cannot dock in Texas due to quarantined Ebola passenger

Bought 2 morgans, thinking of gold coins (not for gold value)

Also down a year's salary. All the way back to where I was in the early spring

May I ask what the Morgan coins set you back?

Is there value above the gold weight involved?

[Ombud]

1915s St Gaudins would be 1600. Wanting it more bc dad was born in SF in 1915. AU condition but in a bezel. Melt value about 1300

Morgan's found for 31 each. Online for 2x that at least. These are AU. 1 BU. But saw a few questionable ones out there too. Even I can tell the difference between silver and whatever these are

[Deleted]

By the numbers:

9/19/2014 {End Of Business} DJIA 17,279.74

10/17/2014 {End Of Business} DJIA 16,380.41

Over the 20 Trading Sessions starting with 9/22/2014 & ending with 10/17/2014; the DJIA is down (-899.33) Points.

During the Last 20 Trading Sessions only 5 Trading Sessions have ended positive. However, those up sessions were not meaningful enough to staunch the downtrend.

The DJIA is Negative for the Year: (-1.18%) {12-31-2013 DJIA 16,576.66 / 10-17-2014 DJIA 16,380.41}

The DJIA is (-5.72%) which is (-970.19 points) below its ALL TIME HIGH of 17,350.60 which it set on 9/19/2014

The Last 4 Trading Weeks have ended down:

Week Ending 9/26/2014 : (-0.97%) / (-166.59) Points; Up Days were Wednesday & Friday

Week Ending 10/3/2014 : (-0.61%) / (-103.46) Points; Up Day was Friday

Week Ending 10/9/2014 : (-2.81%) / (-465.59) Points; Up Day was Wednesday

Week Ending 10/17/2014 : (-1.00%) / (-163.69) Points; Up Day was Friday

Folks can check the accuracy of the above; but We {Shelly & I} keep very accurate records..

[Value Buy]

DI, it sure as heck seemed a lot worse than 900 points!

When we see the huge drops it makes one think it is worse than it is.

Of course we shaved 170 points off of the total Friday too, so it looked a lot better.

JPM

CVX

XOM

JNJ

JCI

were guilty for a majority of my loss totals

JPM was my largest hit.

I have to make a decision of CVX and XOM.

Two oil stocks and they hold too much sway in my portfolio. Great when they go up, horrible on the way down.

JNJ is a small holding, but took a large percentage hit the last two weeks. I was $1.40 away from selling it, then it collapsed. Got too greedy.

[Deleted]

Value Buy

You know why it has seemed worse? Not being snarky; but there are several reasons:

{1} The Total Drop Has Happened In Just 20 Trading Sessions. Over The Last Several Years Prior To This Such A Drop Has Happened Over A Longer Period (8 To 12 Weeks; Instead Of A Sharp Short 4 Weeks) & The Drops Prior To This Have Has A Shallower Trajectory; With More "Relief" Spots Mixed In.

{2} Complacency. No Matter How One Tries To Slice It; Investors Have Become Extremely Complacent With The Slightly Bumpy But Upward Tilt That The Last Nearly 7 Years Have Given Them.

{3} The Ignored Reality; Which Is That The DJIA Is In Fact Now Negative For The Year; That Small Caps {Russell Indexes} Have Been Rallying Hard After Taking A Nearly 30% Beating For Most Of The Year, With A Strengthening Dollar; Commodities Prices That Are Crashing (In Large Part Due To The Saudi's) & The Now {Also Trying To Be Ignored} Known Fact That {Thanks To The St. Louis FED} Inflation Has Been Artificially Suppressed For Over 6 Years Due to FED Policy; A Heavy Bill That Has To Be Paid, Just When Is The Unknown.

{4} The Sheer Size Of The Majority Of The Drops; Shows Pure Volatility; Something Which Due To the Sheer Lack Of, Scares The S&*^ Out Of Folks.

And All Of That Against A Backdrop Which Is Undeniable: The Economy Has Been Getting Better & At A Pace That Has Been Faster Than Anyone Paid Attention To.

Truth Is That The Past 20 Sessions Haven't Been Hell; Not Even Close. Rather They Have Been A (Currently) Short Stop In Investing Purgatory..

And Sadly A Lot Of Folks Have Been Getting Flayed Alive; But Only Have Themselves & Their Hubris To Blame..

Those That Were Cash Heavy Going Into This Current Mess; No Doubt Have Held Up Well, Unless Hubris Got Their Goat.

------------------

As To JNJ; My Friend They Are Only Off Right Around $9 Since 9-22-2014: AND They Have A Lot Of Strength; More Than Many Think..

Think Back To When The Lawsuits Came Up A Few Years Back; Everyone Was Dumping JNJ, Screaming That They Were Going To Go Bankrupt...

Their Stock Plunged To Mid $50's, We {Shell & I} Told Folks "You Should Be Buying". We Were Called Insane..

Yet The Stock Rallied Back in A Very Short Time; And Look Where They Are Now; Even In Light Of All..

And The Dividend Picture Is Solid As Well.. Are We Saying Buy More Now? of Course Not; But What We Are Saying Is That At Present Selling Any JNJ Would Be A Just Plain Nuts Thing To Do If Someone Already Owns It..

A Much Nicer Place To Tack Some More On Will Present; Yet Here Again; Just When Is The Unknown..

CASH Heavy & Dividends Will Be The Place That Folks Really Will Want To Be; When The S^*& Really Hits The Fan..

But Then, We Have Been Saying That For The Last Nearly 2 Years...

Draw Your Own Conclusions; But Mind That Things Have Been Setting Lower Lows & Lower Bounce Backs...

[Value Buy]

Portfolio gained over $11,000 yesterday, 2.91% increase.

Still well down from the high, but clawing it's way back

As we all know, if the portfolio falls a 2.91% with a decrease, it is a higher dollar number than a 2.91% increase on a lower portfolio value, so it takes either higher % increases or more up days, to get back to even

At least we seem to have built a base, imo, although some technicians are saying we have to test the S&P500 low another time to build the base.

[Ombud]

Has anyone other than @di bought anything? Other than SCHA on 10/16 to bring my holdings up to an even lot (wanted a Put), I sat out. Even though I sold the Put yesterday, I'm up 6% in the odd lot shares that I bought after discounting the loss on the Put.

Not sure exactly when to get back in .... not feeling pressure to divest what amounts to 1/3 cash stance

[ModE98]

For one, not getting back in until the mid-term elections are over.  That's just me, a bit of caution.  May not mean a thing.

[clarkrl2]

I have a limit order set for PFBC if it falls to $24. I'm more of a seller than a buyer right now.

[Bluerobin]

I bot some ETG last week, just for the dividend.  I just can't decide if I want to add to BGS after it dropped this week.

[Deleted]

We never got out, have been careful with the deployment of resources though. rather what We did was shift direction of trades a bit. Went with a few equities (backed up by Covered Calls) to spice things up a bit.

Still hold with the view We have had for quite some time.

[truthbound]

Oct 22, 2014 14:55:00 GMT -5 clarkrl2 said:

I have a limit order set for PFBC if it falls to $24. I'm more of a seller than a buyer right now.

The market is performing exactly as was predicted. You should be buying.

[Bluerobin]

I have been re-adjusting lately.  I am down to about 30 stocks and wondering if I am still sufficiently diversified.  At one point I had over 100, so I get to do a lot less reading now.  Would like to get to about 20 - 25 stocks eventually.  Both of my main Portfolios are up about 11 % this year.  I really am not sure where to go, so reading your comments are very insightful. 


After I retired, I started selling off some of my coins and silver bullion bars (10 oz).  Just figured it was time to, since they were for my retirement. I have trouble getting rid of my Morgans though I have stopped buying them