The current state of the stock markets

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

It seems to me that the question of why they didn't raise rates is next, Mr. Mod.. I guess we'll see, but that story goes a bit like this....

Sept 17, 2015 13:15:11 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Aug 20, 2015 15:08:01 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

The recent US NY manufacturing reading sucked! While the Philly one today was better, it no where offsets the brutal number out of NY. On that note, the US has moved closer to ending the ban on crude exports and something tells me that if oil hits $35, that would probably be the kick needed to open the taps.

The most important part of the US economy is still very strong though. U.S. home sales notch new post-recession high in July, which makes sense with the recent auto sales and consumer spending numbers out of the US. When you look at these econ numbers and the recent US GDP numbers out of a global context, it would appear that interest rates were primed to rise.

When you look at the reality of the situation globally and how fast it is starting to deteriorate, the USA being the strength in the weakness with only the housing market keeping things going at this point means; no interest rate hike in September more than likely. This is the furthest thing from an inflationary situation there is - which is odd when you think about all the money that has been "created." All you have to do is look at the BRIC's and make sure to note that almost every economist out there is now saying FU to China and just giving their own number on what the earnings and consumption says.(RECESSION)

Then there is the global jihad which - thanks to Putin - is growing rapidly and has caused an all out migration crisis that has spread to Europe now. With how biblical this September is to the Abrahamic religion, and the fact there are at least 100k fighters loyal to the Islamic State gathering and training in Central Asia, the whole interest rate hike in September debate might become a moot point anyway.

Just as the Arabs rose in the late 800's and destroyed the original silk road, they are trying to rise and destroy global trade today. A serious attack on Central Asia and India will be the tipping point for the entire eastern hemisphere. Thank God the USA is a self sustaining economy that has been running on skeleton crew, which has been forced to afford things over the last seven years.

Aug 23, 2015 11:48:57 GMT -5 jarrett1 said:

All above is good except that refinancing student debt now dwarfs housing @ 1.9 Trillion and the is not accretive...only dilutive.

Vote is 9-1 as FOMC opts not to raise interest rates

WE TOLD YA SO!!!

[ModE98]

It's a very unstable world.  Hope we can at least avoid a major war for some years to come; but it's probably inevitable.  There's enough going on in recent years to one day lighting the spark to set it off.  We do not need a bunch of crap to happen to set the markets into a melt-down mode. 

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Hope we can at least avoid a major war for some years to come; but it's probably inevitable

Yep. All because Vlad the psycho decided that after years of integrating with the world economy, Russia could somehow become a "super power" - whatever that even means anymore...

The alternate story line here had Vlad not done what he did would have been: the mid East is going to tear itself apart while China invests heavily in Africa to end their economic slump. Either way Chinese boots where going to end up on the ground in the Mid East, but Russia and Europe would have worked together and stopped it from consuming the entire East...

All because of a douche bag that likes to look at himself with no shirt on..

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

And there you have it Mr. Mod... And it isn't even about this. It's all about the WAR! Stay my friend.

Dow drops 234 points as Fed fans global growth fears

[ModE98]

Aham ....Unstable markets for some time to come.  Not a "comfortable" investing environment, that's for sure.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Damn straight ModE! I can tell you one thing, these aholes that are "storming the gates" are about to learn why it took the entire world to stop the German army!! This time the Nordics, the Slovaks, and the British brutes are all on our side!

FOR ISRAEL!!!!

[tyfighter3]

The only way to fight a war. LOL

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Well ya! If it was't a fair fight what fun would it be?? LOL..

[ModE98]

Another "roller coaster" day and it's only 2:15 EDT.  Still time for more thrilling action.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Sept 21, 2015 13:18:53 GMT -5 ModE98 said:

Another "roller coaster" day and it's only 2:15 EDT.  Still time for more thrilling action.

With all the live TV coverage one could ask for!

[Value Buy]

Sept 21, 2015 14:23:33 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Sept 21, 2015 13:18:53 GMT -5 ModE98 said:

Another "roller coaster" day and it's only 2:15 EDT.  Still time for more thrilling action.

With all the live TV coverage one could ask for!

Strange day.
The Dow was the best performer of the exchanges by quite a bit. S&P 500 also beat the Nasdaq.
Nasdaq was weak because of some of the major drug makers are under scrutiny from Hillary on gouging on some drugs.
WTI OIL had another big day, cutting losses from Friday.

[Value Buy]

This morning WTI is down 3% before the stock opening, and Dow futures are down 276 points.
A rocky day today.......

[ModE98]

It will likely be a true "rock and roll" week.   Pope's visit, Chinese visit, etc.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

We've matured from "The Headbangers Ball" to "The Headbangers Market"...

[Value Buy]

Eighteen of the last 24 trading days have seen triple digit gains or losses.
Some were strictly up, many were strictly down, and a few thrown in with multiple 100+ points both ways.

[Deleted]

16,654.77  - 369.26  - 8/27/2015
16,643.01  - (11.76) - 8/28/2015
16,528.03  - (114.98) - 8/31/2015
16,058.35  - (469.68) - 9/1/2015
16,351.38  - 293.03 - 9/2/2015
16,374.76  - 23.38 9/3/2015
16,102.38  - (272.38) 9/4/2015
16,492.68  - 390.30 9/8/2015
16,253.57  - (239.11) 9/9/2015
16,330.40  - 76.83  - 9/10/2015
16,433.09  - 102.69  - 9/11/2015
16,370.96  - (62.13) - 9/14/2015
16,599.85  - 228.89  - 9/15/2015
16,739.95  - 140.10  - 9/16/2015
16,674.74  - (65.21) - 9/17/2015
16,384.58  - (290.16) - 9/18/2015
16,510.19  - 125.61  - 9/21/2015
16,330.47  - (179.72) - 9/22/2015

There are the closing numbers for the last 18 days on the DJIA; and the points lost or gained. Losing Days are in parentheses.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Sept 22, 2015 21:32:12 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Eighteen of the last 24 trading days have seen triple digit gains or losses.
Some were strictly up, many were strictly down, and a few thrown in with multiple 100+ points both ways.

Now that is what we call a volatile situation!!

[ModE98]

That's what I call a "bumpy ride"!  Probably more to come, maybe a big swing.

stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

[Value Buy]

WTI oil down just under 4% today.
I never checked, but I will bet rrob increased on the drop.
The traders usually sell one and buy the other.

[Ombud]

In that I got bored (feeling better - beginning to hate time off work), stuck in a bunch of limit orders on stocks & Puts so look for a weird day ~~

My timing always sucks

[ModE98]

Sept 24, 2015 10:53:53 GMT -5 Ombud said:

My timing always sucks

What?  You too? Having luck in timing trades seems almost a lost cause for most non-professional investors.  We are jinxed.

[ModE98]

Got a sinking feeling?  Chart at the crossroads for now.
  stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

[Ombud]

Think we'll Revisit August Lows

[Deleted]

We posted this in Our thread:

Interesting article on CNBC that We noticed:

www.cnbc.com/2015/09/24/charts-point-to-breach-of-august-lows-for-sp-500.html

Though, We think that the guy (Francesco Filia) is short on how much more past the lows referenced the markets could go.

[Ombud]

Yeah, @di. Usually read your thread but dn today. Was commenting off a comment made on Fast Money and Mod's link. So although I'm not pushing my estimate of a recovery out as far as ModE98, I'm now thinking 2016 based on 3 months down (Aug - Nov) 6 months to recover (Nov - April) just in time for sell in May and go away? Yuck

[Value Buy]

Second qtr GDP revised to an outstanding 3.9% which we have been told by economists all summer, the new norm is 2% 
The futures are going crazy.
Very interesting day coming up.

[Value Buy]

I am a little confused the morning.
The revised 2nd qtr GDP virtually guarentees the Fed can and will raise interest rates this year.
The utility index is up this morning.
Is this a rubberband bounce we have waited for the announcement and consider it old news?
Utilities are having a great day.

[ModE98]

Another crazy day.  Appears many holders do not want to hold over the weekend.  If market keeps falling this last hour, more likely next week will be another conundrum. 

[Deleted]

Value Buy

RE: Post #341

Consider the inverse relationships; Rates v. Price.

Now consider what has been seen thus far. A mess of things have been pushed way down (equities); though most of that has been felt by smaller companies (not necessarily talking small caps directly, just smaller companies, or hated/unloved) & utilities.

Now consider that typically, when Interest Rates rise, utilities typically get kicked (price comes down, yields go up).

But wait, utilities have already been kicked hard, ahead of any interest rate increase.. Rather unusual, but this has been a mine filed of unusual occurrences for a long time.

What hasn't really come down is the big stuff (think over $100 per share); but now that is starting to happen, CAT kicked it off (major declines there); but then companies like CAT typically lean over first after good solid runs.. (Oil is it's own problem; the current environment doesn't help that, at all)

So it looks like what has happened is this:

Big, Smart money has pulled a swaperoo.. Dumped tons of smaller stuff for big gains, while riding the influx of capital to the larger stuff (herding the sheep)..

Smaller players, have sought to get out of smaller stuff that has been loosing, and with no other real place to go has gone more to the bigger stuff..

Now the smaller stuff, has some really monster yields on dividends, so now the Big Smart Money is starting to move out of the larger stuff (bringing down prices along the way) and then doing 2 things {A} Carefully testing the waters in the smaller stuff & {B} Looking for the next leg to extend their gains..

This is pretty standard no matter the market, just this market is unlike pretty much anything that has been seen before.

[Value Buy]

Saudi Arabia has been selling stock positions to pay for their country's patronage lifestyle system due to the drop in oil revenue.
I understand they have liquidated well over 60 billion dollars worth so far.
I know in the grand scheme of things with the markets, it is pocket change, but since they are also no longer making purchases of stocks it is probably worth twice the amount of stock sales taken out of the markets.
With Canada in recession all of South America hurting, and China messed up, I think it is easy to say the amount of money no longer going into the markets is enormous.