The New EU

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

More time for Greece?

Austria says Greece could get more time to repay debts
www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/26/greece-debt-austria-idINDEE87P05T20120826?irpc=932

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

We have all heard this story before. However, instead of just asking the Chinese to invest in say Greece or Spain, they are now asking them to invest in euro bond market...

China's Wen willing to invest in european bond market - bloomberg
community.nasdaq.com/News/2012-08/chinas-wen-willing-to-invest-in-european-bond-market-bloomberg.aspx?storyid=168498

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Not quite as socialists as once thought? ;D

France extends euro zone olive branch to Berlin
in.reuters.com/article/2012/08/29/eurozone-france-germany-idINDEE87S0HB20120829?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FINbusinessNews+%28News+%2F+IN+%2F+Business+News%29

France's Socialist government made a public show of unity with Germany on Wednesday with pledges to cooperate closely with Berlin on Europe, seeking to dampen talk that Paris was siding with southern European nations against austerity.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

VUNDERBOND!

ECB agrees to unlimited bond-buying program
www.thestar.com/business/article/1252051--draghi-to-deliver-bond-buying-plan-to-save-the-euro

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

More on the new EU.

Europe to outline banking union to tackle crisis
economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international-business/europe-to-outline-banking-union-to-tackle-crisis/articleshow/16360670.cms

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Vunerbond!

Euro fund to rise to 2 trillion euros: report
www.marketwatch.com/story/euro-fund-to-rise-to-2-trillion-euros-report-2012-09-23?siteid=rss&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A%20marketwatch%2Fmarketpulse%20(MarketWatch.com%20-%20MarketPulse)

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

A++ Vunderbond!

Moody's gives ESM its triple-A rating
www.marketwatch.com/story/moodys-gives-esm-its-triple-a-rating-2012-10-08?siteid=rss&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A%20marketwatch%2Fmarketpulse%20(MarketWatch.com%20-%20MarketPulse)

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

As noted before, this is a big part of the New EU...

Under Chinese, a Greek Port Thrives
www.nytimes.com/2012/10/11/business/global/chinese-company-sets-new-rhythm-in-port-of-piraeus.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

Chinese Telecom Firm Finds Warmer Welcome in Europe
www.nytimes.com/2012/10/12/business/global/huawei-chinese-telecom-company-finds-warmer-welcome-in-europe.html?partner=rss&emc=rss

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Moving closer to seeing how this is going to look.

EU leaders seal bank plan to beat crisis
www.abc.net.au/news/2012-10-20/eu-leaders-seal-bank-plan-to-beat-crisis/4324324?section=business

Of course there are reasons why it's looking fairly certain that the EU and the Euro is here to stay for a while.

Panama leader tells Germany he wants to adopt euro
www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/18/us-eurozone-panama-germany-idUSBRE89H07D20121018?feedType=RSS&feedName=oddlyEnoughNews&rpc=986

EU says long-time aspirant Turkey not ready yet for membership in continental club
www.montrealgazette.com/news/report+says+countries+wishing+join+union+still+have+must+make/7368227/story.html

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Oct 20, 2012 2:15:32 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Moving closer to seeing how this is going to look.

Germany eyes balanced budget in 2014
www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world_business/view/1233967/1/.html

[Deleted]

Oct 29, 2012 1:51:32 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Oct 20, 2012 2:15:32 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Moving closer to seeing how this is going to look.

Germany eyes balanced budget in 2014
www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world_business/view/1233967/1/.html

Good morning.

[Deleted]

good morning,Ahamburger.Have good, one.


www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/10/daily-chart-15

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Hey Snowbird, hope you're having fun. ;D

Yes the unemployment is terrible in lots of the EU. It's a two part reason, first, they relied heavily on the govt to provide jobs, since the gov can only make money through creating bonds(debt) it was a failed plan from the start. The second reason it got so bad in lots of places is because of work ethic. Germany went through these cuts and reduced spending measures back in '10 and as you can see above they are on the path to recovery. It's amazing how a part of this problem comes down to the outlook and perception on life, just like so many problems truly are.

[Deleted]

good morning,Ahamburger.

Yes, I agree with what you are saying. I read Boomerang by Michael Lewis. And he has great interpretations of all aspect of Pig. country and German. What I think, it will happen. They have to break up the Euro.
Take care, I am having a lot of fun with board. ;D

[Deleted]

Ahamburger. k for having the thread. ;D




www.marketwatch.com/story/why-do-the-germans-want-their-gold-back-2012-10-31?link=MW_popular

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Thank you mam', looks like I owe ya another one. One way or another the EU is going to be taking on a new form that is for sure.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I don't think it's going anywhere soon, just so we are clear...

[Deleted]

I, know. I think, maybe 3-5 years. Who really knows, when. but it's coming.
Have, good one. Ahamburger. I will give you another k for your broad thinking, kindness. ;D

[Deleted]

Ahamburger, Good morning. Here is another article about Fed's QE and What is happening in Greece.
Moving is such a hard job. Take care.... ;D
www.marketwatch.com/story/dollar-gains-in-restless-pre-payrolls-trade-2012-11-02

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

It's a good read snowbird, thanks. I think that this last round of "QE" was merely for the mentality of the markets and that is it. I see that you and Mrs. Merkel agree on the duration. The main issue at the center of this crisis is there is no real eurobond. Vunderbond! ;D

Merkel: Euro debt crisis will last 5 years or more
news.yahoo.com/merkel-euro-debt-crisis-last-5-years-more-154045203--finance.html

Some more K for your level headed approach and good discussions snowbird..

[Deleted]

Ahamburger. last time I went Spain Euro was 1.15. That was 11 years ago.Have good one. ;D k for tunes.....

www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-11-05/euro-beating-world-imperiled-by-biggest-loan-drop-since-09-1-.html

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Exactly, and some currencies are much worse right now.. So the trip is now? K4u!

In Asia, Europe Leaders Seek to Deflect Heat
online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204349404578100692593298564.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Asian leaders pressed their European counterparts Monday for aggressive action to tackle the euro-zone crisis, which threatens Asia's nascent economic upswing. But while Europe's leaders offered more reassurances, they also pushed back on Asia's trade policies, such as China's efforts to control its currency's movement.

At the start of a two-day Asia-Europe summit in the tiny Southeast Asian nation of Laos, Japan led the push for Europe—which is relapsing into recession as its sovereign-debt crisis smolders on—to press ahead with steps to both rein in its debt and restore growth. The ASEM summit is overshadowed by the threat that Europe's crisis could derail a global recovery, just as Asia shows signs of pulling out of an economic soft patch.

While the Europeans agreed that they must act, they also pressed Asia, which has built much of its impressive growth on selling to Western markets, to reject protectionism and the crutch of weak currencies. China and other Asian export powerhouses have made notable strides in the past several years at shifting growth from exports to consumer spending, but Monday's meeting showed that the political pressure remains, especially on the touchy subject of exchange-rate interference.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

It has become apparent that this Europe’s banking union is Made in Brussels. As just recently EU executive gets national budget vetting powers and EU leaders strike deal on long-term austerity budget.  Which means that the entire EU has basically agreed to have the same budget and the weaker countries will have oversight on what they are doing by the stronger members.  Aka, the tiered system that was discussed earlier in this thread.

Even though the EU is in a recession right now that will hit earnings this year I'm sure, there is good news to report as well; Banks to make big early payback of ECB crisis cash, also Japan to add ESM bonds to forex reserve: report.

It seems to me that the really big news that is going on always seems to slip through the cracks to a point, things like; Turkey blames Cyprus over 'disappointing' EU report, Serb nationalist regime turns a step closer to EU, and most importantly, Eurosystem and Bank of Russia hold their high-level Seminar.

The Euro in Russia? 

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Not only did the EU not break up it looks like its influence is growing, on Friday the EU brokers historic Kosovo deal, door opens to Serbia accession(the Euro in Russia) and Poland Affirms Desire to Join Euro Zone.  However, don't be fooled into thinking that we have heard the last of the EU issues. Aside from the banking failure that just hit Cyprus and the EU raising flags over French, Italian, Spanish economies, Fitch just stripped the UK of triple-A credit rating and there is an Anti-Euro Party that could be a Wildcard in German Elections in September. 

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Now that the EU has recorded two quarters of "growth", I would bet that it's safe to talk about the future of the EU.

One of the things outlined at the start of this thread is how the EU member states of the future could possibly include countries like Turkey. Recent meetings between Turkey and EU officials show that underling trend is still in tact.

At this point in the EU "recovery", the politicians have admitted that it will take close to 10 years to get the current economic conditions back to normal. The problem with their forecast is the same thing that is wrong with almost all analytics that come from the big houses, they are assuming that present conditions will remain intact.

In fact, the present conditions in the EU are not remaining in tact. The fact is that the European part of my 2013 equation came true, and full year growth for the EU came in at a negative 0.4%. The fact is that regardless of the cheerleading right now, the recession in the EU persisted and grew in 2013 and the EU needs to log a full year of growth in 2014 before we can finally say the economy in the EU is on the mend.

On that point, biggest trend that is emerging right now in the EU is one that is set to add to the stall, and prolong this already painful depression that has plagued a large part of the EU. I touched on in a bit last year as it made the headlines in Greece, but recent elections in Switzerland have thrust this topic into the spotlight of the upcoming Europeans elections.

The rise of the far right has spread beyond Greece and has now spawned demonstrations/movments in, Hungary, Norway, Slovakia, France, and The Netherlands. There could be more, but I'm sure most get the Idea. For those of you who think that this is a political topic, look at how people in the Ukraine have accused the far right of hi-jacking their protests. Riots on the streets mean higher borrowing costs, capital flight, and a prolonging of current economic conditions. Which are of course teetering on the brink of all out EU recession once again.

Over the long term I have no doubt that the rise of this intolerance and divisions will eventually bring unity through chaos. That is why even though I'm 95% sure this far right surge will bring on lots of talk about a euro breakup again, I am confident that there will be no euro breakup.

As always, stay and invest accordingly.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Well, it looks like the far right issues mentioned in the last post are coming to the surface. Especially considering the Ukraine has been partially annex by Russia because of it. Now that the general elections that are happening all across the EU this year have begun, it will be interesting to see how Putin uses the results....

French far-right Front National party makes big gains in local elections

On the other hand, the banking Union that was mentioned when this thread was first started is all but done. Looks like some insolvent banks are going the way of the dodo. Of course, this means that bond holders will probably start making some noise.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

With Greece and Portugal returning to the bond market after years of bailouts, EU growth really seems to be on solid ground. However, this is a situation where not all is as it seems. If fact, because of the events in the Ukraine, there is actually a higher probability of a new banking crisis in Europe now, than at any point in the last 18 months.. With the ease that Putin has exerted his influence across all of Eastern Ukraine, you can bet his eyes are set on the far right map above. Stay .

-No Matter What Happens In The East, Ukraine Is Going To Default
-Putin says EU must save Ukraine from default
-Syria is now the biggest threat to Britain's security<------- Yes, again, the stage has been set for the eastern part of the globe to be engulfed. Way to go Putin!(spreading himself thin)

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Sorry, I realize that I have not yet posted the far right map on this thread, so it is impossible to look at on this thread, per the last post. However, considering that Germany, France see ghosts of WWI in Ukraine because of rising nationalism, now seems like the appropriate time to point out that nationalism isn't just rising in the Ukraine.

Stay all.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

The May 25th general elections.....

In parts of Europe, the far right rises again

As Europe marks the 100th anniversary of the outbreak of World War I, the war that destroyed Old Europe, far-right parties are gaining ground across New Europe.

Most of the far-right parties are pro-Russia, opposing U.S. and European Union efforts to isolate President Vladimir Putin for his intervention in Ukraine. They are expected to do well in the May 25 European Parliament elections.

EU-Russia jitters reach Latvia election

"I hope parties which support the euro will win a majority of seats in the European Parliament," he adds.

But he could be disappointed.

Membership of the euro is a done deal, but parties which remain sceptical are polling well. The left-wing Harmony Centre (which draws much of its support from the Russian community) looks set to come first.

What's happening in Ukraine (and Russia) is a source of real concern, but the economy will probably prove decisive to the outcome of both Latvian elections this year.

If EU sanctions against Russia intensify of course, Latvia will feel the pain as well.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Feb 15, 2014 20:26:15 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

In fact, the present conditions in the EU are not remaining in tact. The fact is that the European part of my 2013 equation came true, and full year growth for the EU came in at a negative 0.4%. The fact is that regardless of the cheerleading right now, the recession in the EU persisted and grew in 2013 and the EU needs to log a full year of growth in 2014 before we can finally say the economy in the EU is on the mend.

On that point, biggest trend that is emerging right now in the EU is one that is set to add to the stall, and prolong this already painful depression that has plagued a large part of the EU. I touched on in a bit last year as it made the headlines in Greece, but recent elections in Switzerland have thrust this topic into the spotlight of the upcoming Europeans elections......

.....I'm 95% sure this far right surge will bring on lots of talk about a euro breakup again, however, I am confident that there will be no euro breakup.

As always, stay and invest accordingly.

Well, here we are a few months later... Time to see where this goes.. Stay

-Anti-Euro, Euroskeptic parties win big in EU parliamentary elections
-Euroskeptic U.K. party takes early lead in EU vote