The New EU

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

There has been lots of talk about how the EU is breaking up and the euro is toast. There is never any real talk about the possibility of the EU not breaking up and "chaining" members. Croatia just joined this past month, Russia is issuing Euro denominated bonds, as well as, some middle eastern countries.

Turkey has talked about joining the EU for a while and even though they were turned down in '08 for a loan from the FED and used IMF money(which they DIDN'T pay back ) they STILL want into the EU. They were recently talking about using CDN currency there so I guess it should be a big surprise.

JMO, it might be an idea to consider that the EU will still be around long after Greece might exit...

Never mind the debt crisis, Iceland wants in on the EU
www.ctv.ca/generic/generated/static/business/article2312260.html

Croatia votes to join EU
Balkan state ready to become 28th member of the European Union as referendum delivers an overwhelming yes vote
www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jan/22/croatia-eu-referendum-vote

Icelandic economists urge their country to adopt Canada's currency
www.cbc.ca/thecurrent/episode/2011/12/09/icelandic-economists-urge-their-country-to-adopt-canadas-currency/

Iceland Asked For $1 Billion Bailout From U.S.
www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/01/14/iceland-asked-for-1-billi_n_809297.html

Accession of Turkey to the European Union
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accession_of_Turkey_to_the_European_Union

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Now that the EU seems like it's going to stick together it's going to be interesting to see if they can stick to their budgets and so far there is good news on that front. Plus some news on the euro bond that some think is on the way.

Swiss voters reject 6 weeks paid vacation <---- Damn do I luv the fact I have Swiss German blood in me! ;D
www.dailyfinance.com/rtn/pr/swiss-voters-reject-6-weeks-paid-vacation/rfid540265471/?channel=pf

Greece's budget deficit shrinks more than expected
www.usatoday.com/money/world/story/2012-03-21/greece-deficit-targets/53684370/1

Germany to Balance Budget Early
online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304724404577294972788449982.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

Basis for a Eurobond Already Exists: Opinion
www.thestreet.com/_aol/story/11436615/1/basis-for-a-eurobond-already-exists-opinion.html?cm_ven=AOL&cm_cat=Free&cm_pla=Feed&cm_ite=Feed

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Germany had to high of expectations from their fellow EU members when they all got together in the 90's, all this austerity in Europe was never going to work as fast as Merkel wanted it to. It's going to take the EU twice as long to work out their debt issues as anyone else, even Japan, and the only way that Europe will be saved is with a eurobond.

The EU needs banking and they really want Russia, Turkey, Lebanon ect to keep issuing those Euro denominated bonds, and to save the EU, Europe will most likely issue Eurobonds backed by the EFSF and ESM to back up their fiscal pact. Then slowly start unwind their massive public debts over decades, instead of years; plus there will be a little bit of debt reduction mixed in as well I would imagine..

Japan to forgive Myanmar debts, restart loans
www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=88857

Why euro bonds may be the only way out of crisis
www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/daily-mix/why-euro-bonds-may-be-the-only-way-out-of-crisis/article2410743/

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Taking into consideration the info above. With Merkel facing pressure for her job and to open up the coffers, and the German people wanting to pay for the EU like they want assholes on their elbows... The only way to keep the EU at this point it to go to the open market for funding to slowing unravel their massive debt issues.... Now they have the ESM and the EFSF.. So they need a way to fund those permanently... Vunderbond!!!! As far as Greece... Maybe they stay, maybe they go... Only the media is saying it's the end of the EU at this point if Greece goes... JMO..

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Vunderbond!!!!

Eurobond clash set for EU summit
François Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel appeared set for a clash later this week as the new French president signaled he would make a pitch for jointly-issued euro-zone government bonds when European leaders meet.
www.marketwatch.com/story/eurobond-clash-set-for-eu-summit-2012-05-21

The debate over so-called Eurobonds and other measures previously rejected by Germany, including unbridled bond-buying by the European Central Bank and allowing the euro-zone’s rescue fund to directly recapitalize banks, is expected to heat up as policy makers weigh the potential consequences of Greece exiting the shared currency, economists said.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

This was pretty interesting..

Europe's best fix: A "New E.U."
finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/05/30/european-union/?section=magazines_fortune&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fmagazines_fortune+%28Fortune+Magazine%29

Also, Vunerbond!

EU Calls for ‘Banking Union’ to Ease Crisis
business.time.com/2012/05/30/eu-calls-for-banking-union-to-ease-crisis/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+time%2Fbusiness+%28TIME%3A+Top+Business+Stories%29

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Vunderbond or bust!

Canada joins U.S in call for euro fiscal union
www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/06/eurozone-canada-harper-idUSL1E8H5LE620120606

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I think we have to call Merkel the 180 lady... Two speed Euro and a Vunderbond , it's amazing how politicians views can change. It's looking more likely that over the next year the EU situation will have a clearer ending.. Should run nicely into the US "debt wall" which I'm sure will consume the Media for a couple years, giving LONG TERM investors plenty of opportunity to keep loading up. By 2015 we will all be ready for... JAPAN!!!

Merkel Says She Supports Two-Speed Europe, Political Union
www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-07/merkel-says-she-supports-two-speed-europe-political-union-1-.html

[Virgil Showlion]

Ham, the EU will not dissolve. It will flux until it consists of a core of ten nations, led by Germany.

How long the "flux" will last is anyone's guess. Maybe a year, and maybe a decade.

Japan is toast. If you see investment opportunities there, you're a far braver man than I. Most people aren't even aware that the Fukushima crisis is still fully underway, and I needn't point out Japan's economic and demographic fundamentals.

Stick a fork in 'er, she's done.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I agree Virg, the EU is most likely here to stay. If you mean "flux" as it will operate under a common bond and countries will enter a "tiered" system, I also agree. Germany yes, however, I think the other countries that make up the AAA core will surprise some. Turkey for one is looking like a strong contender as well as Russia.

I hear you about Japan... All because a laziness. I'm not willing to go as far as saying that Japan is finished. However, there is a very good possibility that China could end up "owing" Japan. I can't find a real answer anywhere, and I don't trust you know who.. I know you're in the Science world Virg, is that shit still leaking into the Ocean or what?

[Virgil Showlion]

If you mean "flux" as it will operate under a common bond and countries will enter a "tiered" system, I also agree.

"Flux" meaning change. Political and economic alliances being forged, dropped out of, reforged; members in, members out, groups merge, groups split. A mixture of iron and clay. Some iron nations, some clay nations, and it may take a while for the mixture to become stable.

I know you're in the Science world Virg, is that shit still leaking into the Ocean or what?

The ocean, the air, the water table, the surrounding soil. It's difficult to get an accurate read on it because the news sources interested in reporting the truth (i.e. independent bloggers, environmental NGOs) don't have the equipment, the personnel, and don't always know what they're talking about, while the sources that do have the equipment and know-how aren't interested in disseminating the truth.

Researchers from the University of Tokyo have already been gagged by Japan's "Ministry of Trust" (department of the interior). And as you may know, there's been a minor exodus of the Japanese well-to-do to other parts of Japan and mainland China for months now. Methinks they know something the Japanese public and the world at large do not.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Hey Virg, sorry for leaving ya hanging man, the last 5 days have been some of the craziest(good) in my life..

"Flux" meaning change. Political and economic alliances being forged, dropped out of, reforged; members in, members out, groups merge, groups split. A mixture of iron and clay. Some iron nations, some clay nations, and it may take a while for the mixture to become stable.

Gotcha...

The ocean, the air, the water table, the surrounding soil. It's difficult to get an accurate read on it because the news sources interested in reporting the truth (i.e. independent bloggers, environmental NGOs) don't have the equipment, the personnel, and don't always know what they're talking about, while the sources that do have the equipment and know-how aren't interested in disseminating the truth.

Researchers from the University of Tokyo have already been gagged by Japan's "Ministry of Trust" (department of the interior). And as you may know, there's been a minor exodus of the Japanese well-to-do to other parts of Japan and mainland China for months now. Methinks they know something the Japanese public and the world at large do not.

I would say they know that Fukushima is the new Chernobyl. My guess is that its not still leaking into the ocean. I think there would be more than just Blu Fin tuna showing up with issues.

You would have to imagine that the Japanese people themselves have counters, and we would hear more WAY more about death over there if the air was being overly polluted in other parts of Japan as well.. You know as well as I do that with C 137 it takes 24 H, at most, to get radiation poisoning. A year later Japan WOULD already be finished if it were as bad as the alarmists are saying.

What do you think Virg?

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

So back onto the topic of the New EU, which for the time being will still include Greece. A big part of how the Vunderbond will operate is starting to peek through..

EUROBONDS: EFSF Announces 25-Year Bond Amid Busy Primary Market
www.foxbusiness.com/news/2012/06/12/eurobonds-efsf-announces-25-year-bond-amid-busy-primary-market/

Cyprus examines appeal to EFSF only for banking recapitalisation
www.financialmirror.com/news-details.php?nid=26667

Spanish Banks May Be Offered EFSF Bonds, European Official Says
www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-11/spanish-banks-may-be-offered-efsf-bonds-european-official-says.html

ECB’s Coeure Says ESM Should Recapitalize Banks Directly
www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-16/ecb-s-coeure-says-esm-should-recapitalize-banks-directly.htm

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jun 7, 2012 12:57:38 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

I think we have to call Merkel the 180 lady... Two speed Euro and a Vunderbond , it's amazing how politicians views can change. It's looking more likely that over the next year the EU situation will have a clearer ending.. Should run nicely into the US "debt wall" which I'm sure will consume the Media for a couple years, giving LONG TERM investors plenty of opportunity to keep loading up. By 2015 we will all be ready for... JAPAN!!!

Merkel Says She Supports Two-Speed Europe, Political Union
www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-07/merkel-says-she-supports-two-speed-europe-political-union-1-.html

Germany to allow Europe funds to buy debt: reports
www.marketwatch.com/story/germany-to-allow-europe-funds-to-buy-debt-reports-2012-06-19

Germany is going to allow the euro zone's bailout funds to buy the sovereign debt of troubled European nations, according to reports in British news outlets including the Guardian and Sky News, without attribution. The money would come from the 500 billion euro European Stability Mechanism and the 250 billion euro European Financial Stability Facility, the reports say. The move would be a reversal from the stance previously held by Germany's Angela Merkel.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Vunderbond!!!

BIS backs pan-European banking system
The Bank for International Settlements, a global forum for central banks, on Sunday backed moves to create a pan-European banking system.
www.marketwatch.com/story/bis-backs-pan-european-banking-system-2012-06-24

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Vunderbond!

Germany Signals May Compromise on Joint Debt
www.foxbusiness.com/news/2012/06/28/germany-signals-may-compromise-on-joint-debt/

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Vunderbond!!

Europe plans single financial regulator
www.marketwatch.com/story/europe-plans-single-financial-regulator-2012-06-28

European leaders on Friday unexpectedly announced a raft of measures designed to alleviate the worst of the current debt crisis gripping the region.

In the early hours of Friday morning after another marathon meeting, European Council President Herman van Rompuy outlined a proposal for a single supervisory mechanism for Europe’s banking system.

European banks will now have the possibility of direct recapitalization, he said, with financial assistance provided by the region’s current bailout fund — the European Financial Stability Facility — until the new European Stability Mechanism becomes available.

[dothedd]

AHAM

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Thanks dot!


Not this week Mr. Z, and most likely not ever. The next thing will be teirs. Countries will have to work to get better ratings so they can have lower borrowing rates. The ESM and the EFSF have been selling bonds on the open market for close to a year now. The next step will just be labeling those Eurobond auctions. Just like how the FED has auctions every so often the ECB through the ESM will do the same thing. A pro growth strategy right now to get Greece going so that Spain and the rest can slowly get back to work because the Germans finally get that people aren't going to work like them( I know my thick headed relatives would get it eventually) should make it so that over the next year we are seeing a clearer end to this mess.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

As much as Germany will be important, lets not forget the biggest part...

EU's Rehn:ECB has signed agency agreement with EFSF rescue fund
in.reuters.com/article/2012/07/10/eurozone-ministers-rehn-idINF9E8I900120120710

Vunderbond!

EFSF Three-Month T-Bill Sale; Yield Up, Demand Up
online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20120703-703666.html

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

As big bad Greece makes it's way back into the headlines, one has to wonder why?

EU Rushes To Make ECB Single Bank Watchdog In Race To Save Spain
www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-24/eu-rushes-to-make-ecb-single-bank-watchdog-in-race-to-save-spain.html

“We have got to cut the fatal loop between sovereigns and banks, which will otherwise bring the euro-zone project as it exists now down,” Adair Turner, chairman of the U.K. Financial Services Authority, said in a London speech yesterday. The euro area needs “rapid progress” towards a central fund that can directly recapitalize banks, he said.

What does the Junker have to say about that?

Juncker states 'strong commitment' to euro's stability
www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jOV69nBRwPGHAfAdKHBw25mIr__g?docId=CNG.cc6ef6a8adf0c8b7e3b5447774292435.6b1

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Sorry I missed this last night hootie. You could argue that the west is over leveraged without a doubt, and I agree that we are in for a long hard road back to balanced budgets on the hill and 10% capital in the banks. Like some of us have been saying, it's kinda like 1873-1907. With this whole mutually assure destruction thing the reality is that the east need the west, and the west needs the east and the love of money will get us through.

Albania’s EU entry is a priority for new president
view.koreaherald.com/kh/view.php?ud=20120725000942&cpv=0

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Everybody now; V-U-N-D-E-R-B-O-N-D!

Dow up 212 on ECB pledge to save euro
Visa and 3M results beat forecasts. Jobless claims drop.
money.msn.com/market-news/post.aspx?post=d87081f1-484a-4f57-a038-cac002b29200

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Vunderbond!

Merkel Coalition Members Show Acceptance of ECB Bond-Buying
www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-03/merkel-s-coalition-members-signal-acceptance-of-ecb-bond-buying.html

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Vunerbond!

ECB bond buys on hold as it prepares new program
www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/06/us-ecb-bonds-idUSBRE8750QC20120806?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&rpc=986

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I missed posting this before the story above. This would be part of the "new" plan I'm sure.

ECB saves Greece from bankruptcy by securing emergency loans: paper
in.reuters.com/article/2012/08/04/ecb-greece-idINDEE87300O20120804?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FINbusinessNews+%28News+%2F+IN+%2F+Business+News%29

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

What's the best thing to do when you can't sleep? Read!

Merkel: Canada should serve as model to Europe
www.cbsnews.com/8301-500395_162-57494633/merkel-canada-should-serve-as-model-to-europe/

[dothedd]

Aug 17, 2012 3:43:54 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

What's the best thing to do when you can't sleep? Read!

Merkel: Canada should serve as model to Europe
www.cbsnews.com/8301-500395_162-57494633/merkel-canada-should-serve-as-model-to-europe/

"Merkel and Harper share the view that austerity, and not more government stimulus, is necessary. Harper, also a conservative, has said that fiscal discipline and economic growth can go hand in hand."

Romney/Ryan 2012

Now back to work...

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Aug 17, 2012 15:51:40 GMT -5 dothedd said:

Aug 17, 2012 3:43:54 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

What's the best thing to do when you can't sleep? Read!

Merkel: Canada should serve as model to Europe
www.cbsnews.com/8301-500395_162-57494633/merkel-canada-should-serve-as-model-to-europe/

"Merkel and Harper share the view that austerity, and not more government stimulus, is necessary. Harper, also a conservative, has said that fiscal discipline and economic growth can go hand in hand."

Romney/Ryan 2012

Now back to work...

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Looks like the EU is poised to start consuming the headlines again. Vunderbond!

ECB could assume supervision in bank union: Demetriades
www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/18/us-ecb-bankunion-demetriades-idUSBRE87H09A20120818?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&rpc=986