U-6 UE Number Falls 2.1% Layoffs at a 13 Year Low

[Driftr]

Jun 24, 2011 7:51:58 GMT -5 usaone said:

Jun 24, 2011 7:07:42 GMT -5 Driftr said:

Ah. So you're choosing to include the claims numbers from the last two recessions when determining what an acceptable level of claims is during a recovery period. Interesting.

yes...we have recessions every decade............not sure why some people act as though we never had a recession before the last decade.

Who do you think is acting like we never had a recession before the last decade?

Nice to see prior week revised up again. Last week they didn't revise prior week and I was scared they were going to start revising prior week claims figures down. That would screw up their consistency score.

[usaone]

With or without the revisions the number is heading down.

[Driftr]

ADP number at 10am

Here's the ADP report in case you don't want to wait until 10am.
www.adpemploymentreport.com/pdf/FINAL_Report_June_11.pdf

[Driftr]

Jul 7, 2011 8:03:01 GMT -5 usaone said:

With or without the revisions the number is heading down.

Who do you think is acting like we never had a recession before the last decade?

[usaone]

Thats a great number for 2 reasons...

First small business did a bulk of the hiring and second June was supposed to be a bad month for hiring.

[Driftr]

Jul 7, 2011 8:06:48 GMT -5 usaone said:

Thats a great number for 2 reeasons...

First small business did a bulk of the hiring and second June was supposed to be a bad month for hiring.

Who do you think is acting like we never had a recession before the last decade?

[usaone]

Jul 7, 2011 8:07:52 GMT -5 Driftr said:

Jul 7, 2011 8:06:48 GMT -5 usaone said:

Thats a great number for 2 reeasons...

First small business did a bulk of the hiring and second June was supposed to be a bad month for hiring.

Who do you think is acting like we never had a recession before the last decade?

All of the doom and gloomers.

[Driftr]

Jul 7, 2011 8:08:32 GMT -5 usaone said:

Jul 7, 2011 8:07:52 GMT -5 Driftr said:

Who do you think is acting like we never had a recession before the last decade?

All of the doom and gloomers.

What is your definition of a doom and gloomer?

[usaone]

Anyone who looks for every negative even in positive numbers.

Our biggest problem with unemployment is capacity utilization which is at 77%.

Historical norm is 81%.

[Driftr]

Anyone who looks for every negative even in positive numbers.

Good to know.

Have you accepted that including claims figures during a recession in a claims average we should be close to during a recovery (however slight a recovery it may be) is wrong?

[usaone]

Anything under 400.000 with todays population is good.

If we can get down to the 360,000 range like we were in Feb that would be even better.

[decoy409]

WRONG! WRONG! WRONG! But you keep believeing or attempting to have others to.


Better start figuring out where the money went durring the final nails being applied to the coffin of the US.

The BLS and the UC numbers are BOGUS.

[usaone]

The numbers are not bogus.

[decoy409]

Wrong! Wrong! Wrong!

The numbers are BOGUS!

And to present and support such is one of two things,

1) In support of demise of country (as it has and is headed to a whole different plane for your children and grandchildren as well as many of us already here).

2) Simply just can't belive and our trapped in denial.

We slammed these reporting agency numbers apart back at MSN MT 2 years ago. There has been NO CHANGE in colaboration of the numbers and they run reckless as they have,supporting (as little as it may be at times) in favor of the house. No more and no less.

[usaone]

Hogwash!!

ADP is a private company and they back up the numbers. They may get adjusted but we are hiring.

The recovery continues.

[usaone]

Im sure you agreed with the numbers when they were posting 700,000 being laid off.

[usaone]

The private sector added 57K. Not good, but July will jump towards 200k.

[Driftr]

Daaang. Population up 176k. Employed people down 445k. That's 621k added to non-performing assets. Ouch!

Markets may not like this news, but if that 57k private sector additions is accurate (I haven't confirmed it one way or the other), it means Govt jobs are falling fast and furious which to me is a good long term sign for the economy no matter how bad it may hurt short term.

[usaone]

I agree........the economy continues to heal.

[usaone]

Government continues to fire and private sector continues to hire.

[Driftr]

Jun 3, 2011 7:38:00 GMT -5 usaone said:

Up to 9.1% payrolls rose 54,000. The government is laying people off and the private sector is hiring.

Did you see that the 54k 'added' in May was revised down to 25k this month?

April additions were revised down as well. Bummer.

[usaone]

Yes but the overall trend and the other economic numbers are surging.

If July's numbers are this weak then I will start to be concerned.

And the ADP number of 157k was strong.

[usaone]

This weeks number is........405,000.

Almost under 400k again...and yes the number may be revised higher but we are headed in the right direction.

[Driftr]

Last weeks 418 revised to 427? Ouch. This weeks figure missing a day due to the holiday? Ouch, or caught up by the end of the week? I'm betting caught up. Did you figure out the claims average we should be shooting for in a recovery yet?

[usaone]

390k and 200k would do the trick.

[Driftr]

Nah. The 390k includes the claims figures during the last couple recessions and I already explained to you why it is misleading to include them in any target average during a recovery (albeit an anemic one).

[Driftr]

Last week's 405k revised up (big surprise I know) to 408k, so this week's 418k was 'only' a 10k increase.

In the week ending July 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 418,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 408,000.

Full report here: www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm

[lifewasgood]

Hard to see how we reduce unemployment with new workers entering the equation and job growth non-existent. I actually believe we will see the governments unemployment numbers hit 12% before it gets any better. States that are not laying off public workers are also not engaged in new hiring. As part of the Deficit reduction package, I see a hit coming to DOD which will send many more to the unemployment office.

[decoy409]

It was! Of really!

Might do some good for people to start actually paying attention.

The SURGE is UP in the LAYOFF sector. Just where in the heck are some of you at? Becouse obviously it can't be here in the U.S.A.

Since it will be burried here,I put 'The NEWS' out today in my post folder.

Enjoy those thoughts of control.

[decoy409]

That's funny,after the dismal news in the Employment section today,I thought there would be some new added numbers to look at in debate of the flop.