U-6 UE Number Falls 2.1% Layoffs at a 13 Year Low

[usaone]

U-6 Unemployment has fallen from 17% to 16.1%. This number DOES include people not actively looking for work.

U-6 was as high as 17.3% in 2010.

This is the number to watch as it continues to fall in 2011.

When the recession ended in 1982 it took almost 5 years for unemployment to approach a normal level. We may be a little quicker this time but not by much.



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[frankq]

This is great news, considering that business has pretty muched squeezed all of the gains in productivity they can from their employees. Jobs will be coming at a more brisk pace as business heats up IMO.

[texasredneck]

Considering the way they play fast and loose with the unemployment numbers what makes you think the U-6 numbers are accurate.

[usaone]

Those numbers are accurate. If they were not Republicans would be all over it.

[verrip1]

The number is a good number change. We should all be happy if it is accurate and holds to revision.

But it's not good if it is a data outlier, and the next month or two prove it to be an outlier.

Also, U-6 even at 16% is still cause for great concern. That is still a hella bad number.

[jarhead1976]

One number not addressed in U6 , remove 8 million illegals working here and the number might drop.

[Guest]

I haven't checked the report because weather down here last week got me way behind at work, but worth looking at the number of people i the workforce as compared to last month to see if this decrease in U6 is actual, or just due to people leaving the workforce. Hopefuly the former.

[lifewasgood]

Jarhead1976, you are correct, especially in the desert southwest, there is a very large shadow work force that is not documented, therefore not included in unemployment numbers. Also they do not contribute to tax revenues in most cases, however they do consume tax dollars via government services. The shadow work force is out of work and contributing heavily to the immigration problems along the boarded. With no legitimate work, they turn to crime, and gang membership. Arizona is a powder keg waiting to explode, local sheriffs against drug thugs. Some feel the feds are standing back just waiting for it to happen, then us it as an excuse to rein in the local law enforcement and embarrass the governor for standing against Fed policy.

[jarhead1976]

The southwest is a growing problem.... Speaking of shadow workforces. I have been asked many times "Can you pay me cash if I come to work for you?" Knowing why, I still ask them anyway. Their reply.." I am collecting unemployment benefits or workers compensation. " No I do not hire them. ....."This analysis shows that it is reasonable to state that at least 20 million illegal aliens reside in the United States and that up to 12,000 illegal aliens enter the United States every day, or, as Arizona Senator John McCain reports - more than 4 million per year. "

[GuestDriftr]

I went out and looked at the BLS website. Two things jumped out at me.

1) The civilian noninstitutional population dropped 185k. The average of the last 11 months was a 187k increase. So that's 372k not included in the beginning population. If these people were included in the civilian labor force, U3 would have been 9.3% versus the 9% reported. Worth noting that 9.3% is still better than the December 9.4%. Also don't know if it is normal in January to have a correction. Dec'09 data wasn;t in the table I looked at and we may have had a similar situation last year. Yellow flag with a hint of red if you ask me.

2) Not in labor force continued to grow. This number has grown each month since August. Growth in January doesn't seem abnormal, but we definately want to see this number shrink unless all of a sudden we're able to get back to a single income in most households.

[usaone]

U-6 dropped from 17.3% to 16.1% in just 4 months.

Nice trend. It should continue through the spring and summer.

[lifewasgood]

Jarhead, I also have had the unemployed looking for cash jobs in order to stay on unemployment. As I look at the big picture, I ask myself can I blame them? In most cases that I have come across they were laid off from decent paying jobs and to go to work now means a significant pay cut. Therefore the thought is stay on benefits as long as possible and find cash work on the side. As long as Congress keeps extending the benefits, the longer this will happen. The fear is what happens when the benefits expire and folks are forced back to work at much lower wages and benefits? Will that be the spark that causes protests in the streets in America? We shall see!

[decoy409]

jarhead, I have followed along with the illeagal count. The latest claim is 11 million and give a few more. Of that 11 milion plus, 8 million plus are reported working in the US.

Quote: 11.2 Million Illegal Immigrants in U.S. in 2010, Report Says; No Change From ’09
thepoliticsofimmigration.blogspot.com/2011/02/112-million-illegal-immigrants-in-us-in.html

lifewasgood, then we set sights on the low pay,10-20 to a household living together, and top it off with a big cherry of China manufacturing moving in.

I like to call it, Restructure to Change.

[usaone]

I will get a few links to the info in the morning!

[rovo]

I've noticed a substantial increase in the "help wanted" section of the daily newspaper. It has grown from about a quarter of a page during the worst of the recession to several pages last Sunday. This is for the Philadelphia area.

[usaone]

Sunday Inquirer....reading it now.....one of the most underrated newspapers in the country.

Philly Daily News Sports is better though.

[usaone]

Feb 7, 2011 20:14:18 GMT -5 rovo said:

I've noticed a substantial increase in the "help wanted" section of the daily newspaper. It has grown from about a quarter of a page during the worst of the recession to several pages last Sunday. This is for the Philadelphia area.

I think we are going to see 200,000 plus a month new hires starting April. My opinion. ;D ;D ;D

[decoy409]

At MSN MT (as others from their are aware of) I ran a AUTOMATED updater of the the United States by County unemployment (or job losses) by County per State.
The Tracker started in 2007 and is updated on a constant basis. Last updated Jan. 2011.
If you care to see what you are speaking about here, go have a look. And as well do not be offended if you so choose to look.
It is in this mornings post.

[usaone]

I watched the link. But not sure what that has to do with the U-6 figures from the last 3 months.

That graphic ended in Nov 2010. No doubt the last 3 years have been awful for unemployment. This thread is looking at the last three months and going forward.

[decoy409]

Well if this thread is looking at the last three months and going forward as you say, then we will just have to wait and see as that TRACKER clearly shows that we are no where even near the latest figure given.
If indeed the latest figure given out was true, that TRACKER would have shown some MAJOR change. And the only MAJOR change is that it has got worse.
And when the bell tolls at tax time (tax from the people to be collected), debt raising ceiling time as well as the purchase of more of our debt which will bring us in that cat. alone to over a trillion plus, and these are all going to hit at the same time, why indeed we will be seeing just how productive of a structured society we have going on here in the United States.

[usaone]

Weekly jobless claims came in at 383,000.

The average number for the last 12 years is 390,000.

We are now under the long term trend! ;D

[usaone]

If you have an education you are doing ok. ;D

Education, education, education!

[dumdeedoe]

whopping 85% of college seniors planned to move back home with their parents after graduation last May, according to a poll by Twentysomething Inc., a marketing and research firm based in Philadelphia. That rate has steadily risen from 67% in 2006.

What are the opinions about the current state of 20 somethings in the country? Lazy or just no jobs?
My view on unemployment seems to tilt more to lazy than no jobs as most of the businesses I know have had tons of trouble with turnover rates and finding quality employees.

[usaone]

Feb 14, 2011 21:40:18 GMT -5 dumdeedoe said:

whopping 85% of college seniors planned to move back home with their parents after graduation last May, according to a poll by Twentysomething Inc., a marketing and research firm based in Philadelphia. That rate has steadily risen from 67% in 2006.

What are the opinions about the current state of 20 somethings in the country? Lazy or just no jobs?
My view on unemployment seems to tilt more to lazy than no jobs as most of the businesses I know have had tons of trouble with turnover rates and finding quality employees.

Correct!

College educated 20 somethings are in demand!

[usaone]

Weekly unemployment claims released tomorrow morning.

Downward trend should continue! ;D

[usaone]

Weekly unemployment numbers was 410,000. Up slightly but still below the 4 week moving average.

The downward trend continues.

[usaone]

Unemployment claims this week last year...500,000.

[usaone]

Unemployment claims drop again to 391,000. Looks like they will now stay under 400,000.

Last years numbers in Feb were nearly 500,000.

[usaone]

ADP Employment number tomorrow.

Weekly Unemployment number Thurs 8:30 am.

Government Unemployment Number for Feb Friday Morning.

[usaone]

ADP reports 217,000 jobs created.

With continuing unemployment claims below 400,000 we are lowering unemployment!