U-6 UE Number Falls 2.1% Layoffs at a 13 Year Low

[usaone]

Well said A.

We are ADDING over 200K NEW jobs a month. That is not bad news.

[Driftr]

Apr 22, 2011 22:48:35 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

I agree Driftr. I agree that things aren't fixed. However, things aren't as dire as your painting them.

Fair enough. I'll concede that my theoretical boat may only be 10-20% full of water at the moment.

[decoy409]

200,000 hey! That's great!

Have a calculator?

There is this little old piece of math you were taught in grade school called, 'Greater vs Less.' In this case in regards to 'population of people',and we take this country as example.

Now for the calculator. Oh and don't forget to go over the last 30 days!

www.dailyjobcuts.com/

[usaone]

Unemployment claims ticked up to 429,000. Not good news.

GDP came in at 1.8% better than the 1.7% that was expected.

[Driftr]

At least the prior week was only revised up by 1,000. Maybe some day we'll see he prior week revised down. Wouldn't that be a hoot?

That's some serious deceleration in GDP from Q4 eh? We probably just need a little more stimulus...

[usaone]

GDP was expected to be lower in Q1.

Q2 is expect to be around 3%.

[usaone]

April ADP number tomorrow and the government April number will be Friday.

Preliminary number for both looks to be around 178,000 new jobs created.

[usaone]

ADP reports 179K new private sector jobs created in April.

ADP reports March jobs created revised UPWARDS to 207K

Still on track to create over 2 Million NEW jobs in 2011.

[usaone]

money.msn.com/business-news/article.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20110504&id=13560900

Layoffs continue to ease.

[Driftr]

May 4, 2011 7:57:36 GMT -5 usaone said:

Still on track to create over 2 Million NEW jobs in 2011.

Anything that keeps us ahead of the 1.8million new entrants per year is good news. Even if it's only 200k or so net new jobs for the year.

[usaone]

Unemployment claim jump to 474.000 this week.

Not good news.

[Driftr]

Yep. Bummer.

In the week ending April 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 474,000, an increase of 43,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 431,000. The 4-week moving average was 431,250, an increase of 22,250 from the previous week's revised average of 409,000.

At least they remained consistent revising previous week upwards though. Link to report.

www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm

[usaone]

Us ADDS 244,000 NEW jobs.

Much more than forecast! ;D

[usaone]

U3 unemployment at 9% as discouraged workers start looking for jobs again.

[Driftr]

May 6, 2011 7:56:04 GMT -5 usaone said:

U3 unemployment at 9% as discouraged workers start looking for jobs again.

That statement would hold more water if the participation rate had increased, but it stayed flat at 64.2% for the fourth straight month.

[usaone]

It will be flat for years because of the baby boomers retiring at a rate of over a Million a year.

The participation rate did not bottom until late 1986 years into a robust recovery after 1982.

[Driftr]

May 6, 2011 8:21:24 GMT -5 usaone said:

It will be flat for years because of the baby boomers retiring at a rate of over a Million a year.

The participation rate did not bottom until late 1986 years into a robust recovery after 1982.

Where do you see 'bottoming' in the participation rate in the 80's? All I see are participation rate increases.

Labor Force Participation rates for 1980-1989.
1980: 63.8
1981: 63.9
1982: 64.0
1983: 64.0
1984: 64.4
1985: 64.8
1986: 65.3
1987: 65.6
1988: 65.9
1989: 66.5

[usaone]

Mar 8, 2011 11:00:23 GMT -5 @GuestDriftr said:

Labor Force Participation rates for 1970-1989.
1970: 60.4
1971: 60.2
1972: 60.4
1973: 60.8
1974: 61.3
1975: 61.2 (oops, didn't notice this blip when I eyeballed it earlier)
1976: 61.6
1977: 62.3
1978: 63.2
1979: 63.7
1980: 63.8
1981: 63.9
1982: 64.0
1983: 64.0
1984: 64.4
1985: 64.8
1986: 65.3
1987: 65.6
1988: 65.9
1989: 66.5
I am not aware of minorities being treated any differently on this report for 1970 versus 1989 or any year in between. This rate continued to trend up until 2000 when we hit our max of 67.1. It looks to be trending down since the tech-wreck.

We already had this discussion. babyboomers!

[Driftr]

Then you should have just stuck with the baby boomer explanation and left out the BS about the 80s participation rate bottoming.

[usaone]

I was off by a few years but am still correct. A participation rate of 64% will not affect a strong recovery.

[Driftr]

May 6, 2011 8:50:48 GMT -5 usaone said:

I was off by a few years but am still correct. A participation rate of 64% will not affect a strong recovery.

Off by a few years? Participation rates went up pretty much every year from 71-89. If you would just stick with your baby boomer theory you'd probably have a valid point about why participation is stagnant when we're showing rising UE rates and jobs added in the same month.

It will certainly be interesting to see what happens if those boomers have accumulated stocks and bonds over the years and aren't equipped to simply live off the dividends and interest though. If they need to start dipping into their principle, things could get interesting in the markets.

A million new people a year dipping into their social security benefits should also be interesting when Turbo Timmah needs to sell Notes and Bonds on the open market rather than to the captive SS 'Trust'. We'll then get to pick out poison 1) Inflation that'll come with QE3 or 2) increased interest expense when the markets demand a higher yield as we approach a downgrade.

I'm assuming someone will come along and do something to Medicare or the costs there will truly bury us once these boomers start getting sick.

[usaone]

Ok. But my point is we can have a nice recovery with a rate around 64%.

[decoy409]

I see somebody missed the little yellow school bus again today. I think you should just be dropped from class as johnny rotten has got a hold of you.

I listened to you PUMP,PUMP,PUMP here this morning these so called great job numbers. And after puking several times,I laid out the FACTS as to these numbers this morning.

[Driftr]

Place yer bets.

U3 March 8.8, April 9.0, May??? I'll give 9.2 a shot.
U6 March 15.7, April 15.9, May??? I'll guess 16.0.

[jarhead1976]

Frank, you also are predicting that unemployment numbers will rise?

[Driftr]

Jun 2, 2011 17:37:12 GMT -5 @franktheimpaler said:

We have a pattern now it has to decrease even more

Nice guess...

[usaone]

Up to 9.1% payrolls rose 54,000. The government is laying people off and the private sector is hiring.

[usaone]

Hopefully we will edge close to 400,000 tomorrow morning.

[usaone]

Claims dropped to 414,000 for the week. A very positive sign!!

[Driftr]

And only 19% of the weekly drop was due to revising the prior weeks claims up. WooHoo!