U-6 UE Number Falls 2.1% Layoffs at a 13 Year Low

[usaone]

This is the first 2 month period of 200k hiring each month since 2006.

[Deleted]

Best part of report

Government jobs minus 15k

We need to cut spending at every level.....local, state, and federal

This is a start....but a lot more needs to be done

[usaone]

Weekly jobs numbers tomorrow.

Should be another week well under 400k!

[usaone]

Claims 382,000!

[verrip1]

Robert Haft is reporting good jobs growth here in Silicon Valley full time positions. One area of strong growth was in accounting and finance. Equally impressive is the increase in HR recruiting positions. These events typically occurs right before hiring really takes off here in the tech sector. It means an expectation of heavy, rapid company growth.

Unfortunately, there still are companies who are focusing only on hiring those currently employed. Too many places are ignoring applications from the long term unemployed in the U-6.

[usaone]

Strong job growth here in the NorthEast.

[Driftr]

Oops...

In the week ending April 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 412,000, an increase of 27,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 385,000. The 4-week moving average was 395,750, an increase of 5,500 from the previous week's revised average of 390,250.

Let's also not forget that last weeks unrevised number was 382,000. Rhetorical question because we all know the answer. Have they ever revised the previous weeks claims lower the following week? Unadjusted looks even worse...

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 443,503 in the week ending April 9, an increase of 89,686 from the previous week.

www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm

[jarhead1976]

New numbers say jobless claims are up 7% to 412,000! This week

[usaone]

Still not a bad number. They fluctuate every week. Lets see what next week brings.

Quite a drop over the past year.

[Virgil Showlion]

From Reality Central (a.k.a. ZH):

The BLS beat the expectations game continues. While this week's number of people filing initial cliams surged to 410K, blowing out expectations of 380K, it is once again the prior revision that shows the true nature of the BLS. As we said last week when claims printed at 382K, better than expectations: "last week's 388K was revised up to 392K, declining to 382K below expectations of 385K, which in tried BLS fashion will certainly be revised next week so that the actual number will have been a miss but by then nobody will care." Sure enough: last week's number was revised... to 385K, meaning there was no beat. Obviously this week's number will be revised higher next week. As usual. Looking at continuing claims we see the same thing: the prior number was revised from 3,723K to 3,738K, meaning the drop to this week's 3,680K was better than expected. Lastly from the BLS, people claiming EUCs and Extended Benefits increased by about 40K in the week ended March 26 (full report here).

This game of "hide the decline" is getting tiring.

FWIW, Q1 GDP numbers were revised downward again (again [again ...]) to 1.5%. Let's hope housing prices don't recover to eliminate the core CPI bonus. Otherwise we might retroactively slip back into a recession.

[verrip1]

Virgil:

A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth.

It seems awfully early to predict slipping back into recession until the US has even a falling real GDP growth, don't you think?

[Virgil Showlion]

Positive growth is a good thing, Verrip. I'm just reacting to usaone's usual (and admittedly, very welcome) positive outlook on what is essentially bouncing along the bottom.

You may also recall: any model that didn't #NaN out trying to simulate how the US could possibly service its debt required 7% GDP growth per year from here to eternity, starting with a "big bang" in 2011.

If memory serves, usaone's response to my criticizing the plausibility of 7%/year was (paraphrasing) "Meh. We'll extend the retirement age a bit. 7% ain't no biggie."

[usaone]

U6 Going from 17.3% to 15.7% is better than bouncing along the bottom.

[verrip1]

Sorry, Virgil. I don't understand. You seem to be presenting multiple premises, but I fail to grasp even generically what your point is. Recession? Housing? Unemployment? A specific comment from usaone? The US economy in general?

[usaone]

Layoffs are back to normal and we are hiring about 200k a month in the private sector.

[Virgil Showlion]

Layoffs are back to normal and we are hiring about 200k a month in the private sector.

How do you reconcile 410K initial unemployment claims per week vs 200K private sector hires per month?

but I fail to grasp even generically what your point is

Justifying my "bouncing along the bottom" argument.

[itstippy]

My frustration, generically speaking, is that the BLS either does not understand their mission or, if they do, they choose to intentionally deviate from it.

Their mission is to gather data as accurately and objectively as possible and report it as accurately and objectively as possible. That's it. Period. They don't do that. If you follow their initial numbers and their later revisions you see a pattern of manipulation. They consistently report more favorable numbers and then revise them the next week/month to less favorable numbers. This results in a more favorable comparison each week/month than would otherwise occur.

The only explanation for this pattern is that the BLS thinks their mission is to promote as favorable an impression of the US economy as possible each week/month while still maintaining some measure of plausibility; that Manipulation Of Perception Economics (MOPE) is essential to performing their task.

That is unacceptable. Just give us the numbers as accurately and objectively as possible, revise them as more accurate data becomes available, and let us determine whether we should be optimistic or pessimistic or indifferent. We're big boys and we can handle the truth. If we want a sunshine spin on data we'll read what the sunshine analysts have to say. If we want gloomy spin we'll read what the gloomy analysts have to say. The BLS should be 100% neutral and objective in the matter.

[usaone]

Virgil

The weekly unemployment claims are different than the monthly numbers.

A lot of the frustration and supposed manipulation of numbers that people think is going on is because they don't understand what the numbers are.

The weekly JOBLESS CLAIMS number, issued every Thursday, is how many people filed for unemployment claims that week.

The average number over the last 15 years is 381,000 every week.

WE ARE AT THAT NUMBER!!!!


The MONTHLY JOBS REPORT which has been around 200,000+ the last few months is the amount of NEWLY CREATED JOBS.

That means the jobs available in the United States increased by 200k+.

The weekly jobless claims and Monthly report are like apples and oranges. You cant compare the 2.

Thats why I like to go by the U6 unemployment number. Its easier to discuss and it includes people that have given up looking for work. And that number is dropping.

[itstippy]

There is no confusion or lack of understanding as to what the numbers mean, or what they are supposed to represent anyway. I can assure you that Virgil does not confuse the two reports. Trust me on this one.

When one compares the Weekly Jobless Claims released numbers to Weekly Jobless Claims revised numbers one sees a trend. The released numbers get revised UP 80% of the time.

When one compares the Monthly Jobs Report released numbers to Monthly Jobs Report revised numbers one sees a trend. It gets revised DOWN 80% of the time.

The BLS manipulates the numbers they release. They also frequently revise numbers 25%, 40%, even 50%, well after their release. Their data is crap. It's good for guessing which way the herd will run the market, but useless for getting a good read on the overall economy.

[Virgil Showlion]

Thanks, tippy.

Indeed, I do understand that initial claims does not "negate" the NFP data.

usaone, I was pointing out that the NFP number isn't "the number of private sector hires per month". If you treated it as such and attempted to reconcile it with the initial claims data, you'd end up with a U6 increase of 17% per year.

To elaborate on my response to verrip: the number of Americans on foodstamps since the peak in U6 has increased from 10.3% of Americans to 14.3% of Americans (4.0% of the population), indicating that most (if not all) of the vaunted 1.6% decline is due to people either giving up their job searches or securing jobs that pay so little the payee still can't afford food. Also note that the 1.6% decline is actually a 0.8% decline as measured by shadowstats.

This meager GDP growth and middle-of-the-road hiring/layoff stats are the fruits of a fiscal policy that has cost trillions of dollars.

As for the constant upward revisions, I'm glad that somebody noticed, tippy.

[usaone]

Weekly Unemployment claims tomorrow morning 830am Eastern. ;D

[verrip1]

To elaborate on my response to Virgil Syonid,

[usaone]

Claims came in at 403,000.

The 4 week average is at 399,000.

Still on track.

[Driftr]

4 week average moving up again.

Prior week revised up again.

Yep, right on track. Just not the track we want to be on.

[usaone]

Drftr....You have to be positive.

The numbers are still low enough that 200k+ hiring a month will lower unemployment.

[jarhead1976]

immigrationcounters.com/ Please note the number of skilled jobs occupied by illegals. These numbers are not posted on any U-6

[Driftr]

Apr 21, 2011 9:49:53 GMT -5 usaone said:

Drftr....You have to be positive.

The numbers are still low enough that 200k+ hiring a month will lower unemployment.

USAne - No. You don't have to be anything. You can obviously choose to remain positive if you want, but when the ship is taking on water I will always choose to look at it as half sunk rather than half still afloat. Especially when I can see that nothing is being done to fix the leak. All we're doing today in this country is trying to bail out faster. We're not bothing to go after the leak because noone wants to get wet. Eventually the bailing out will end. If we haven't fixed the leak, we will then sink.

[verrip1]

Still, it's as predictable as the sun rising from the east. The Weather Channel predicts strong likelihood of tangential winds with warm puffs.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I agree Driftr. I agree that things aren't fixed. However, things aren't as dire as your painting them. I think this is what usa won was talking about..



Unemployment claims Jan 09- 650k
Apr 09- 525k
Apr 10- 450k
Apr 11- 400k

So while employment hasn't picked up as substantially as some would like to see, it isn't unreasonable to think that even with current jobs numbers, unemployment will come down.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Fast rise in job openings brightens hiring outlook:
www.thesunnews.com/2011/04/14/2100104/fast-rise-in-job-openings-brightens.html