There is no Canadian Housing Bubble!

[usaone]

Home Depot to add 70,000 new employees over the next 90 days.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Exactly..

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

What was that? Homebuilders are as excited as they were BEFORE the crash of '08??

[usaone]

Here we go!

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Things look a lot more promising now, especially when you look through this thread.. Six months ago..

Jul 22, 2011 13:21:55 GMT -5 @lifewasgood said:

Explain away, but if you would take the time to go to any major city that has been hit hard by housing and drive around looking, talking to local real estate brokers, agents, and title companies, your opinion just my change. But as long as you polish a chair with your butt playing computer games and day trading, you will never see the real picture.

A funning thing is happening in the Arizona market: After the first initial devaluing of housing, many Canadians rushed in and started buying the primo properties with cash as investments. However now that the market has taken another step downward and local experts are calling for further devaluation and a long term stagnate period, those same Canadian investors are starting to panic causing further problems by putting those properties on the market that is already saturated with empty houses. Banks are not lending much so the investors have decided to sell carrying the paper at risk selling houses back to those who just a year ago or so walked away or defaulted on home loans. Wow talk about a merry-go-round. By the way, this comes with a premium as the owner will carry properties are usually 20 to 40% higher priced than the bank owned foreclosed properties. With interest rates 6 to 10%.

Are we having fun yet?

A coincidence??

Phoenix Housing Rises as Canada Buyers Seek 55% Desert Discount
www.businessweek.com/news/2012-01-19/phoenix-housing-rises-as-canada-buyers-seek-55-desert-discount.html

Bob Major returned to Phoenix in October in search of more bargains like the four empty houses he bought in 2010 at rock-bottom prices. The retired builder from Vancouver instead found real estate about 20 percent higher and stiff competition.

“There’s been an extreme turn,” Major, 66, said in an interview at a Chandler, Arizona, pizzeria, sitting beside his wife, Wendy. “We put bids on 30 properties and only got two.”

The Phoenix housing market, down 55 percent from peak values with more than two-thirds of borrowers owing more than their properties are worth, is starting to recover as demand grows and inventory shrinks. Sales rose in November for the 12th straight month on a year-over-year basis, and distressed real estate accounted for the smallest share of purchases since 2008, according to research firm DataQuick.

“The laws of supply and demand are finally taking hold,” said Jim Belfiore, president of Belfiore Real Estate Consulting LLC in Phoenix. “We’ve cleaned house. This market is poised to make a significant jump.”

Also, if you want to go off the grid, it's getting a bit easier.

Two builders roll out net-zero energy-efficient homes
www.denverpost.com/business/ci_19763273?source=rss

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

So again, normal market action is showing up in the housing market. December is usually a bad month for homes sales, plus we have confirmation that either ales go UP from here or not. Essentially a bottom or not will be known by this time 2013.

On deck we have.

-All five major banks have to pay 25 billion for bad practices, and have to change their foreclosure proceeding.
- Major purchased of homes to rental investors.
- Major forward econ numbers are pointing to strength through the spring in the US economy.

Should be an interesting spring.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Things are looking really good on the seasonal factor front. Warmer in January, almost like spring, and housing is up. Jobs claims are down signals strength in the economy, some has to be attributed to the housing market since we know that Home dept is hiring and posters on this site are reporting construction manufacturing activity. The percentage of mortgages that are delinquent fell in the fourth quarter of 2011, and fewer loans entered the foreclosure process, apparently close to levels from three years ago. A strong economy from here, should mean that housing will continue to get stronger. With LOTS of people at home ready to buy homes, private buyers lining up to buy foreclosed homes, there is a good chance at a housing recovery in the near future and it might not take as long as some think to heal the really bad parts.

Mortgage delinquencies decline
money.cnn.com/2012/02/16/real_estate/mortgage_market/

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Great info wxyz! Multiple offers are a very good sign because they can start letting more properties onto the market to ease demand and keep a bubble from forming to quick.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

More numbers today showing life in the housing market, mixed in with improving economic numbers, this will all go a long way to an improving market place this year.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Again today more positive numbers from the housing market. Pending sales rise M-O-M and compared to last January pending home sales climbed 10.3 percent. A strong spring and 2012 COULD be the year that the housing market starts to recover.

In other real estate news, the Canadian Pension Plan is ready to invest in the future of America. That would be MY Old age pension.. ;D

CPPIB makes its biggest real estate investment
www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/streetwise/cppib-makes-its-biggest-real-estate-investment/article2338386/

The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board will soon be one of the largest institutional owners of regional shopping malls in the United States after striking its biggest real estate investment ever.

CPP board pays US$57.4 million for stake in New York City office building
www.thestar.com/business/article/1137326--cpp-board-pays-us-57-4-million-for-stake-in-new-york-city-office-building

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

We are into March, the housing numbers are holding up, even thought they may have been a bit mediocre this week, it's a signal of things to come; especially with initial jobless claims going in the right direction.

Something tells me this guy knows a thing or two about real estate.

Trump Post-Tiger Golf Bottom-Fishing Signals Rebound: Mortgages
www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-15/trump-post-tiger-golf-bottom-fishing-signals-rebound-mortgages.html

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Some VERY interesting news..

Bidding Wars Erupt as U.S. Supply of Homes for Sale Falls
www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-27/bidding-wars-erupt-as-u-s-supply-of-homes-for-sale-falls.html

Matthew and Carina Hensley offered $10,000 more than the asking price for a three-bedroom house in suburban Seattle, then lost out to one of seven other bidders.

Their $270,000 proposal last month came with a family portrait and a letter introducing the couple, their eight-month- old daughter, Harper, and their desire to build a family in the Renton, Washington, house with a yard backing onto a woody hillside.

Bidding wars, absent from most parts of the U.S. residential market since its peak in 2006, are erupting from Seattle and Silicon Valley to Miami and Washington, D.C. The inventory of homes hovers close to a six-year low, while an increase in jobs and record affordability are tempting more buyers. The number of contracts to buy previously owned homes jumped 14 percent in February from a year earlier, the National Association of Realtors reported yesterday.

[frankq]

Aham,

Seeing definite improvement in our area of Chicagoland as new construction is up very noticably. Two new townhome developments under construction on spec. More subdivisions being marketed again. Two homes in my neighborhood sold inside of 30 days. Custom homes under construction again. Numbers aren't huge, but they're there now when the weren't last year.

[Driftr]

Mar 28, 2012 17:16:22 GMT -5 frankq said:

Aham,

Seeing definite improvement in our area of Chicagoland as new construction is up very noticably. Two new townhome developments under construction on spec. More subdivisions being marketed again. Two homes in my neighborhood sold inside of 30 days. Custom homes under construction again. Numbers aren't huge, but they're there now when the weren't last year.

Does quick selling equal improvement if they're selling for less and less each month? I would venture to guess the answer is yes assuming you expect prices to keep falling, but no if you think they're going to go back up soon. Just my opinion.

The housing market started off the new year with a thud. Home prices dropped for the fifth consecutive month in January, reaching their lowest point since the end of 2002.

The average home sold in that month lost 0.8% of its value, compared with a month earlier, and prices were down 3.8% from 12 months earlier, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index of 20 major markets.

Home prices have fallen a whopping 34.4% from the peak set in July, 2006.

fox8.com/2012/03/27/home-prices-in-cleveland-sink-to-new-low/

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Driftr. Quick selling is just one factor. What Q is seeing is organic growth. The fact that the supply is falling is what I am talking about. The prices are going to be the last indicator to turn up and when the prices start to go up across the board that is when you will see a full on recovery.

[Driftr]

Mar 29, 2012 11:43:10 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Driftr. Quick selling is just one factor. What Q is seeing is organic growth. The fact that the supply is falling is what I am talking about. The prices are going to be the last indicator to turn up and when the prices start to go up across the board that is when you will see a full on recovery.

My Econ 101 textbook didn't cover simultaneous falling prices and falling supply.

Or I skipped class that day and headed over for nickle beers earlier than I should have (quite likely).

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

LOL.... I hear ya. The way I see it; some things are getting a little better= not everything is getting worse= a little bit a healing.

Later Brother!

[Driftr]

Mar 29, 2012 12:14:18 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

LOL.... I hear ya. The way I see it; some things are getting a little better= not everything is getting worse= a little bit a healing.

Did anyone ever tell you that you have one heck of a good attitude?

[usaone]

Mar 29, 2012 11:58:38 GMT -5 Driftr said:

Mar 29, 2012 11:43:10 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Driftr. Quick selling is just one factor. What Q is seeing is organic growth. The fact that the supply is falling is what I am talking about. The prices are going to be the last indicator to turn up and when the prices start to go up across the board that is when you will see a full on recovery.

My Econ 101 textbook didn't cover simultaneous falling prices and falling supply.

Or I skipped class that day and headed over for nickle beers earlier than I should have (quite likely).

There are 2 or 3 states that are skewing the numbers. If you look at most of the country, prices are flat or up slightly and previously owned homes sales are up by a few %.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Mar 30, 2012 7:29:08 GMT -5 Driftr said:

Mar 29, 2012 12:14:18 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

LOL.... I hear ya. The way I see it; some things are getting a little better= not everything is getting worse= a little bit a healing.

Did anyone ever tell you that you have one heck of a good attitude?

LOL.. Thanks Driftr. I can get that way from time to time..

Good points USAwon. I think that since we are starting to really see some healing, I'm going to add some more general housing stuff to this thread now to. It will make a great real estate investment thread/home improvement thread going forward.

Homebuilders offering self-sufficient, sustainable homes
www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/2012/02/28/20120228builders-helping-zap-electricity-bills-with-net-zero-homes.html

GE digs deeper into the smart energy home
gigaom.com/cleantech/ge-digs-deeper-into-smart-energy-home/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

The Fed is buying property.. This is a sign of the bottom to me.

Federal Reserve Bank of NY Acquires Downtown Office for $207.5M
www.costar.com/News/Article/Federal-Reserve-Bank-of-NY-Acquires-Downtown-Office-for-$2075M/136212

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

These are some interesting points of view. Sales first, then prices.

Housing Declared Bottoming in U.S.
www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-25/housing-declared-bottoming-in-u-s-.html

Home prices to bottom in these 19 markets in 2012
articles.marketwatch.com/2012-04-25/finance/31393333_1_home-prices-zillow-home-values

[Driftr]

1 in 10 people who took out a mortgage in the last two years are now upside down.

It would be more interesting to me to see those statistics for people who took out loans in the last three months. Assuming that 10% figure has declined sharply, it would certainly lend credence to the theory that housing has found a bottom.

www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/26/us-usa-housing-negative-idUSBRE83P12E20120426

[usaone]

9 out of 10 are NOT upside-down.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

And that's a good sign USAwon and a good point driftr. Especially when you add in the increased pace in sales. As the cheap prices start to disappear while the job market gets better, those million or so buyers we talked about earlier in this thread that are laying in wait just living at home with their parents will start to emerge. Then the plans for rentals blocks from mac and mae kick in this fall, and then people that are waiting for the recovery to buy start buying. It's just a scenerio and it's looking lik a probable one at this point.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

An interesting way to achieve a net zero home..

Net-zero house allows 'normal' lifestyle
www.thestarphoenix.com/technology/zero+house+allows+normal+lifestyle/6539322/story.html

"The goal was to live normally. We wanted to prove that people don't have to adjust the way they live. You can be net zero without having to commit to a big lifestyle change," said Jansen.

They built the home, located on an acreage just west of the city, in 2009. It was designed to be as energy-efficient as possible, utilizing south-facing windows to harness passive solar energy and built with triple-thick walls dense with insulation.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Things really appear to be turning a corner, since this is the first time since the crash that Fannie Mae hasn't needed any money..

Fannie Mae Posts Profit; Seeks No Aid
www.nytimes.com/2012/05/10/business/fannie-mae-profit-signals-a-stabilizing-housing-market.html

Home Prices Are Stabilizing, Signifying A Housing Market Bottom
www.forbes.com/sites/morganbrennan/2012/05/09/home-prices-stabilizing-signifying-a-housing-market-bottom/

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Don't forget about those auctions!!!

Jun 18, 2012 8:41:38 GMT -5 @wxyz said:

We have a long way to go but we are slowly making progress from the real estate collapse that our idiotic government policies and social engineering set in motion.

"Shrinking ‘Shadow Inventory’ Eases Threat to U.S. Housing"
www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-14/home-shadow-inventory-falls-to-lowest-since-2008.html

"The overhang of pending foreclosures that threatened to flood the U.S. housing market and depress prices is dissipating as banks sell off distressed properties and let borrowers sell homes for less than they owe........."

Now if we could just deal with financial issues like severely limiting the use of derivatives, completely separating banking and investment banking, reinstating the uptick rule, etc, etc, we would be in line for a massive BULL market in a year or two. Of course those that have been LONG TERM and diligent about stock and fund investing for the last 3.5 years have enjoyed one of the greatest upward moves in stock market history.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Bidding Wars? That's right! Bring on that shadow inventory I say!

U.S. housing market turns corner in Arizona, Florida, Texas
www.thestar.com/business/article/1213914--u-s-housing-market-turns-corner-in-arizona-florida-texas

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Over the next two years all of these "bad" properties will be, mostly, taken care of. Commercial RE in NY at that point will probably take a hit NYC because the big banks are in for it over the next four or five years.. ...

That's why we are looking at the growth areas in the US now, in a BIG way. Because the next place, aside from NY, the deals will be is in Canada eh.