There is no Canadian Housing Bubble!

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

No doubt Vman!! LOL

Sept 1, 2011 7:56:36 GMT -5 @maui1 said:

Maui, you DO realize that once the US govt is paid, that means the taxpayers are getting pd right? I know it sucks, should never have happened. But it did.. The REALITY is that TARP isn't 700 billion, it was going to be 60 B, smaller now that these securities are being sold that you're talking about.


i see another person drinking the gov't cool aid. i would respond but it seems it would be a fruitless effort, as i am sure there is an implanted block to what is real.

Maui your aritlce is nothing but speculation, did you read it all?? The last part.....

I am not currently aware of any way for retail investors to participate in this process.

It is probable, however, that once the privatization has occurred and the properties are generating rental income for the investors, the initial investors will cash out by forming real estate investment trusts (REITs), real estate operating companies (REOCs) or limited partnerships (LPs) that will be made available to retail investors.

[maui1]

i did read it (i even told everyone to review all of it) ...........but i don't know what your trying to get across ('speculation'?). are you saying everything will even out when and if, the public wants to buy into the reits that these select investors will probably sell to public thru the one sided stock market?

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

No what I am saying is that the plan is still in its infancy, and the author isn't even fully aware of the outcome, aka, speculating on the outcome.

If you think about this data, add in the news that the Federal Reserve and US govt are going after the banks for the mortgage mess, things get a little clearer. This looks like, take the 4 trillion that you have horded since the bailout and buy back these homes we(the US govt) bought!

This COULD clean up the backlog of foreclosures, and you could see all these homes for retail resale one day once the market stabilizes.

I can tell you one thing. If the banks and sovergn funds clean up a big chunk of this mess, your going to see a change in the housing market real fast!

Good info Maui!

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Aug 15, 2011 1:35:52 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Families that buy properties for school kids, or rentals for school kids is a good start, per lifewas good.

Back to School Real Estate Investments Rule
www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/back-to-school-real-estate-investments-rule-127441928.html

It turns out that over the last few months back to school sales of homes may have actually started to bring a bit of balance to this market. Housing numbers that have grown strong since Sept, this signals a more regular cycle emerging in the market.

The strong US economic numbers confirm that the euro recession won't stop growth in the emerging markets, which can been seen in the easing coming from India and China. This will lead to more consumption and more exports for the US.

Then of course there is the fact that a generation of kids is living at home, some of which aren't doing too bad, and would love a place of their own. All the wanted to see was some more strength in the US economy, strong numbers from the fourth quarter could turn into a very interesting upward spiral.

As New Graduates Return to Nest, Economy Also Feels the Pain
www.nytimes.com/2011/11/17/business/economy/as-graduates-move-back-home-economy-feels-the-pain.html

Household formation probably won’t lead the recovery, but once set into motion by other good economic news it can “supercharge growth.” He estimates that there is pent-up demand for close to 1.1 million new households

Bank Credit Highest Since Before Lehman as U.S. Growth Continues
www.businessweek.com/news/2011-12-13/bank-credit-highest-since-before-lehman-as-u-s-growth-continues.html

[jarhead1976]

The NAR under estimates real numbers.
Some industry sources had been critical of the (NAR) organization's data. In February, CoreLogic charged that NAR data was overestimating sales by 15% to 20%.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

It should be interesting Jar.

This....

Lumber sales, prices rise as Chinese buyers return to B.C.
www.vancouversun.com/business/Lumber+sales+prices+Chinese+buyers/5889231/story.html

With China committed to building 36 million housing units over the next five years, supplying the wood for attaching drywall becomes a huge market of its own, McIver said

Is what this is all about...

Aug 15, 2011 1:35:52 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

WY anyone?? Wood houses.. 700-1440 sq Ft..

Exports a boon for Western lumber industry
missoulian.com/news/state-and-regional/article_71d9ac12-c6e8-11e0-810f-001cc4c03286.html

Should keep the GDP rolling.

[usaone]

Pending Home Sales surged 7.3%.

The highest number since the spring of 2010, when the tax credit was expiring.

HUGE number especially in December and with no tax credit.

[decoy409]

Ignorance is a bliss.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Dec 29, 2011 10:33:10 GMT -5 usaone said:

Pending Home Sales surged 7.3%.

The highest number since the spring of 2010, when the tax credit was expiring.

HUGE number especially in December and with no tax credit.

It's getting interesting, another good quarter and those million or so kids living at home with their parents are going to really start looking..

I guess we will know dec 31 2012 if the housing market really did bottom out this year. I knew there was a reason that I didn't write the housing bottom off this year utill AFTER sept..

[Virgil Showlion]

Keep him on his two threads. Why allow him to spout the same old crap on many threads. It just pollutes the board and drives away other posters.

Decoy: this will be your one and only post-freedom warning. If you want free access to the board, you are not at liberty to call other posters ignorant, greedy, or stupid. Stick to posting facts.

Your one and only warning.

- Virgil (Mod)

Pending Home Sales surged 7.3%.

The highest number since the spring of 2010, when the tax credit was expiring.

HUGE number especially in December and with no tax credit.

I'd be more optimistic if home prices weren't bouncing along the bottom. Or if December US equity fund outflows hadn't also spiked.

US equity mutual funds are out $135 billion for 2011. They can't keep it up for much longer.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Dec 30, 2011 1:10:55 GMT -5 Virgil Showlion said:

Keep him on his two threads. Why allow him to spout the same old crap on many threads. It just pollutes the board and drives away other posters.

Decoy: this will be your one and only post-freedom warning. If you want free access to the board, you are not at liberty to call other posters ignorant, greedy, or stupid. Stick to posting facts.

Your one and only warning.

- Virgil (Mod)

Pending Home Sales surged 7.3%.

The highest number since the spring of 2010, when the tax credit was expiring.

HUGE number especially in December and with no tax credit.

I'd be more optimistic if home prices weren't bouncing along the bottom. Or if December US equity fund outflows hadn't also spiked.

US equity mutual funds are out $135 billion for 2011. They can't keep it up for much longer.

Sales first, then prices. Plus, when you have part of the problem stepping up to save their own asses it's going to help.

Deutsche Bank Offers U.S. Plans for Renting Foreclosed Homes
news.businessweek.com/article.asp?documentKey=1376-LWMV2I6S972901-4EJUTROS5UTB1TEM1UPUBMLTRS

Once ‘Ugly’ Property Management Grows
www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-29/once-ugly-property-management-grows-as-u-s-home-rentals-surge.html

One Sign That the Housing Market Has Hit Bottom
www.dailyfinance.com/2011/11/28/one-sign-that-the-housing-market-has-hit-bottom/

Don't worry Virg, there is always a new streak...

[neoh]

"Sales first, then prices. Plus, when you have part of the problem stepping up to save their own asses it's going to help. "

I disagree Ham. Wages first then prices.
There was an article that I read yesterday about how the UAW is trying to organize auto plants. These non union plants (and union plants) pay "a good solid wage" of $13.00- $15.00/hr or ~ 27k-31k/yr.
Since these are the new good paying jobs then the market will only support what people can afford. Some households may have two incomes but that means making babies will be out of the question which will hurt future demographics.
There are some things happening that are stabilizing housing. Thousands of vacant homes, that are owned by banks, are scheduled for demolition next year in ne ohio because of delinquent taxes or lack of upkeep. thousands more have already been demolished. It makes sense when I look at my hometown of Cuyahoga county. Cleveland had over 900k residents at one time and now there is less than 400k and still falling.
Yes prices may go up but it will be for the wrong reasons. We can give everybody a loan again and repeat the mistake or inflation will kick in and the rise will only be in nominal terms and wages won't keep pace.
Deutche Bank is a little late to the rental table. They wouldn't have a clue on how to manage single family rental property anyway. They would probably sell it to a slumlord firm.

[rovo]

US equity mutual funds are out $135 billion for 2011. They can't keep it up for much longer.

It is a very difficult period if you are a mutual fund manager. I have to wonder if the money coming out of mutual funds isn't going into ETFs because of the lower costs of ETFs. I have nothing to back this up but it would seem to me to be a reasonable thing to do.

[decoy409]

Lets see,ready and cleared for FORECLOSURE and about another 40% ontop of that being rounded up.

Sounds like a real

Sorry you missed it.

Dec. 29,2011 - The stubborn resistance of shadow inventory – six states make up over half of all shadow inventory. 3,000,000 distressed properties sold since January of 2009.

www.doctorhousingbubble.com/shadow-inventory-stubborn-resistance-shadow-inventory-six-states-make-up-over-half-of-all-shadow-inventory/#more-5201

[neoh]

Dec 30, 2011 8:25:06 GMT -5 rovo said:

US equity mutual funds are out $135 billion for 2011. They can't keep it up for much longer.

It is a very difficult period if you are a mutual fund manager. I have to wonder if the money coming out of mutual funds isn't going into ETFs because of the lower costs of ETFs. I have nothing to back this up but it would seem to me to be a reasonable thing to do.

I think that is a big part of it. Another reason, imo, is the crash in 2008 happened when boomers are retiring or nearing retirement. If the 401k was their primary vehicle of retirement then they have transferred a majority of those funds to what they perceive to be the least risky fund. They don't want to risk another hit and a lot of confidence in the financial sector has been lost.
A lot of older people in their 50's lost decent paying jobs and have to settle for lower paying. Some of those are dipping into their plans, correctly or incorrectly, to pay bills.
Many young professionals are having a difficult time finding jobs. Heavy student debt doesn't help either.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

It is just going to be the same old DOOM AND GLOOM on thread after thread, with the usual attacks sprinkled in, with warnings, but no followup. Just like it has been for the past three years.

It's such a parasite that if left alone, it will find a new host in IBB.

Neoh, prices of homes have come down with wages, it's why the free market of the USA still works. There is lots of fear, that is why sales have been very bad. Prices are part of the fear. But prices are still falling and sales are picking up. Why? Jobs, and GDP. This is leading to less fear and more buying. There is over a million kids at home in their 20's & 30's that could afford homes, that's a huge lack of confidence.

Here in safe Canada, 80k wouldn't even get you a decent apartment in my tiny city... I have three kids and we both work, and we are going to have more, it's all about attitude. The problem is that the youth of the west have been programed into thinking that they shouldn't bring a kid in to this shitty world run by evil banker/corporations.

I know a few that say this when I bring up having kids, and the fact that our forefathers had it WAYYY worse than us. So if you know some young people that could have a kid, let them know it's going to be ok. That having a kid is the best thing they could do for themselves. It's all about DISCIPLINE.

Also, thanks for pointing out that the housing problem is sorting itself out(free market), even if it's not in the way that everyone would like to see (demolitions) But hey, it was overbuilt.

As far as Dbank.. That is money back to the Tax payers in the form of houses off the Mac's, that is a very good thing and a great development. These could be rent to own properties as well.

I guess we will see either way because the world isn't going to end, that is one thing I know for sure.

[decoy409]

You are still stuck at the old D&G? Sorry to hear of this. Maybe try presenting and discussing the positives and negatives so better look can be had.

'Dec. 29,2011 - The stubborn resistance of shadow inventory – six states make up over half of all shadow inventory. 3,000,000 distressed properties sold since January of 2009.

www.doctorhousingbubble.com/shado....tory/#more-5201'

See you avoided comment on the above as wel as the masses of incoming foreclosures. I did not see a follow up as wel as to the big old packages being offered on bulk sales of foreclosures being offered out round the world to a select bunch.

Quote: Also, thanks for pointing out that the housing problem is sorting itself out(free market), even if it's not in the way that everyone would like to see (demolitions) But hey, it was overbuilt.
(end)

A tid bit of patial certainly does not take a look at the current.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Positivity about housing in the NEWS?

Are Houses Becoming Safe Again?
seekingalpha.com/article/317033-are-houses-becoming-safe-again?source=feed

[beenherebefore]

Jmh, housing is far from bottoming. Aside from existing foreclosures, people who can pay their mortgages are walking away due to being upside down, not to mention those pesky ARM's.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Should be interesting to see what kind of deal investors can make to get the houses mopped up, then re-sold and rented. This could really speed up the pace of recovery.

Fed Urges Action on Housing
online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203471004577140882700118076.html

[beenherebefore]

Here's another article on the proposals:

www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-04/bernanke-sends-congress-fed-study-of-options-to-lift-housing.html

Government regulation in housing, intrusive? Tax payer bailing out Fannie and Freddie again?

What are the political implications of this?

Things to think about.

At a glance, I Don't like it.....

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Great point, k4u beenhere.

I'm not sure there is much politics to it, except to try and keep the politicians out of it. Unfortunately the market was way overbuilt. What the FED is saying is that without a kick start to housing, their is going to be debt added already. It comes down to the good debt, bad debt argument. A house(under normal circumstances) is good debt, and TV stereo, ect, is bad. Not doing something about the housing problem leads to longer, more stagnant growth, and more useless politicians bringing up ideas like the credit that bombed the market in April 2010 when it expired.

By taking the foreclosures out of the picture, you eliminate the problem. Then you have assets to sell. Freddy and Fanny could at least be salvageable to a point Because banks would be more willing to lend, and once the market recovered, if they COULD(this is the regulation part) hold the houses for long enough, there would be good profit for the GOVT(people) in the assets.

This would hopefully recoup some of the losses that the banks cause in the first place. I know it would be a long process, but the point the FED is making, is that that it's going to take a while either way. At least they have a plan. What do the Politicans have?

[The Virginian]

I agree with BeenHereBefore (BHB ;D)

- The Housing has not hit bottom in a lot of areas.

- Now is a great time to buy a home for personal use or for Investment.

- Good luck qualifying for the loans though.

- We still have almost 10 years to get back near full recovery.

- If you own rental property - that is where it is at right now. Most people will be forced into rentals driving up the demand.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

BHB.. Nice... ;D

As far as prices, without a doubt. Sales look like the have bottomed over the last two years. It looks like what you were saying a while back wxyz. It will "bounce" along the bottom here. At this point, on a 200k house that has lost 50% of it's value, even a 10% drop over the next couple years for someone that is looking 7, 8 years down the road will be no big deal.

I think that once the recovery really starts, housing won't take long to heat up. Interest rates will rise and there is lots of money in the system that will go to work. It won't take long before the 50% gains are hitting again.. It will just stop once all the undervalued stuff catches up. That's why I agree with you big time Mr V., rentals are where it's at right now(if you want that hassle) I think it was you that said... " Right now, property is where future millionaires will be born" or something like that...

All that said, the FED is really pushing for the politicians to do something here. This is new, possibly a game changer, and this also DIRECTLY answers the question..

"See you avoided comment on the above as wel as the masses of incoming foreclosures. I did not see a follow up as wel as to the big old packages being offered on bulk sales of foreclosures being offered out round the world to a select bunch."

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Message deleted by Ahamburger. Repeat post

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Don't you just love it when a renowned CEO agrees with ya.

Stronger Recovery Held Back by Washington, Welch Says
www.cnbc.com/id/45924852

One major area of optimism: Housing.

Welch said a combination of low prices and record-low interest rates have helped the battered real estate market hit bottom and get ready to rebound, perhaps even stronger than many economists expect.

"Housing has pretty well bottomed and rental prices are going up. Vacancies are almost non-existent," he said. "So you've got a lot of forces driving toward the housing market. Prices are down, interest rates are down, the affordability index is good...We think it could be a blowout. Housing could be really good based on all the dynamics that are out there."

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

I seen the manger of this company on a msnbc.com clip today. I thought it was really cool because they are also leasing out the homes to the renters. They want to help people get back on their feet, and why not? In the end that is the best thing for everyone.

This is just the start of this cycle. The announcers brought up something I had pointed out to my dad a couple years back. There is going to be a whole NEW industry of property management(AKA JOBS) in the USA when SOMEONE does it.

Oakland's Waypoint cashes in on empty homes
www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2012/01/11/BU631MNI53.DTL

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Carrington Mortgage Services has announced plans to spend half a billion or more on homes from the Macs.

[clubv]

Welch is a pig dude. Wake up.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Guy I never sleep. It's not my job to judge his character. Can you deny his business sense?

It would be great if all of this generations CEOs were similar to Richard Branson. However, Guys like Richard Branson didn't really exists 50 yrs ago. 150 yrs ago they were killed. I have a feeling that my generation of CEO's will take their cue from the Bransons and the Lendrums of the world.

However, on topic, it's starting to look like LIFE has entered the housing market as Home depot is adding 14% more staff this year for the spring renovation season.