There is no Canadian Housing Bubble!

[Driftr]

Well. Prices may not be rising, but at least they're not falling as fast year over year.

Residential real estate prices fell in April at the slowest pace in more than a year, adding to signs the U.S. housing market was firming.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values in 20 cities dropped 1.9 percent in April from the same month in 2011, the smallest decline since November 2010, after decreasing 2.6 percent in the year ended March, the group said today in New York. The median forecast of 28 economists in a Bloomberg News survey projected a 2.5 percent drop.

www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-26/home-prices-in-20-u-s-cities-fall-at-slowest-pace-since-2010.html

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Once short sales and foreclosures don't make up 30-40% of sales, prices will normalize and rise quickly.. That will cause the market to grow once again and all the really sweet deals you see today(aka prices from 2000) will be gone. NA prices will meat somewhere in the middle I would imagine, and then these ONCE in a lifetime deals that you see right now(interests rates and prices) will be LONG gone.

[Driftr]

Jun 26, 2012 13:24:06 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Once short sales and foreclosures don't make up 30-40% of sales, prices will normalize and rise quickly.. That will cause the market to grow once again and all the really sweet deals you see today(aka prices from 2000) will be gone. NA prices will meat somewhere in the middle I would imagine, and then these ONCE in a lifetime deals that you see right now(interests rates and prices) will be LONG gone.

I hope you're right on the prices rising. Any timing guess as to when the short sales and foreclosures will stop making up 30-40% of sales?

I have a hard time believing the Fed will ever be in a position where it can allow interest rates to rise again. If they do, our debt service costs are going to take a serious bite. I seriously hope I'm wrong. Otherwise, I believe we're headed for Japan like conditions.

[Driftr]

Yep. Certainly some good areas. Just a shame that there are currently more bad ones. Hopefully the decrease in the decline in prices continues and at some point reverses.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jun 26, 2012 13:40:59 GMT -5 Driftr said:

Jun 26, 2012 13:24:06 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Once short sales and foreclosures don't make up 30-40% of sales, prices will normalize and rise quickly.. That will cause the market to grow once again and all the really sweet deals you see today(aka prices from 2000) will be gone. NA prices will meat somewhere in the middle I would imagine, and then these ONCE in a lifetime deals that you see right now(interests rates and prices) will be LONG gone.

I hope you're right on the prices rising. Any timing guess as to when the short sales and foreclosures will stop making up 30-40% of sales?

I have a hard time believing the Fed will ever be in a position where it can allow interest rates to rise again. If they do, our debt service costs are going to take a serious bite. I seriously hope I'm wrong. Otherwise, I believe we're headed for Japan like conditions.

I would say that Mr. Z is right, that over the next few yeas the percentage will shrink, and in and around that 3 yr mark there are going to be some sore people around here. Lucky for you, there may still be a way to make some cash off of the low prices with a low risk REIT....

You have to remember that a lot of the shadow inventory that will be coming up will be take care of before it hits the markets. There are some people getting ready with a mop.

I can give you a list of reasons why it's basically impossible for the USA to end up like Japan. Aside from the Doom and Gloom what are your concerns with that driftr?

Here is what some of the big bond guys are doing..

Markets ‘At the Foothills’ of higher interest rates: Fuss
blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2012/06/22/markets-at-the-foothills-of-higher-interest-rates-fuss/

[Driftr]

Jun 27, 2012 0:52:11 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

I would say that Mr. Z is right, that over the next few yeas the percentage will shrink, and in and around that 3 yr mark there are going to be some sore people around here. Lucky for you, there may still be a way to make some cash off of the low prices with a low risk REIT....

Low risk & REIT are a contradiction in terms IMO, but I'm happy for anyone that's been making money using them as an income generator.

I can give you a list of reasons why it's basically impossible for the USA to end up like Japan. Aside from the Doom and Gloom what are your concerns with that driftr?

I can't answer that question for you unless you define specifically what Doom & Gloom means to you.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Should be interesting to see what kind of REIT products emerge over the next little bit driftr..

Doom and Gloom to me would be the consistent negativity you hear about the demise of the USA. How the same taxi driver that was telling me that RE would never go down, is now telling me that the USA is finished. I know you're not a nut if that's what you're asking... ;D

[flow5]

Over 2.5 million delinquent mortgages to be resolved this year; shadow inventory shrinking quickly

Posted: 30 Jun 2012

In spite of the fear mongering taking place in the media and in the blogosphere with regard to the US housing "shadow inventory", considerable progress is being made in shrinking the oversupply of distressed properties around the country.

CoreLogic:

As of April 2012, shadow inventory fell to 1.5 million units, or four-month’ supply and represented just over half of the 2.8 million properties currently seriously delinquent, in foreclosure or REO.
The four-month’ supply of shadow inventory is at its lowest level in nearly three years. It parallels the unsold months’ supply of non-distressed active listings that hit a more than five-year low in April, falling to a 6.5-months’ from a 9.1-months’ supply just a year ago.

Of the 1.5 million properties currently in the shadow inventory, 720,000 units are seriously delinquent (two months’ supply), 410,000 are in some stage of foreclosure (1.1-months’ supply) and 390,000 are already in REO (1.1-months’ supply).

The dollar volume of shadow inventory was $246 billion as of April 2012, down from $270 billion a year ago and a three-year low.
Serious delinquencies, which are the main driver of the shadow inventory, declined the most in Arizona (-37.0 percent), California (-28.0 percent), Nevada (-27.4 percent), Michigan (-23.7 percent) and Minnesota (-18.1 percent).

Source: CoreLogic

It is important to note that the CoreLogic numbers exclude homes that are already listed in the market - it only shows the "shadow" (unlisted) inventory. That means that the overall inventory of distressed homes is far greater than the chart above shows (maybe 2 to 2.5 times that number).

Two key components are impacting the decline in shadow inventory:

1. A smaller portion of loan delinquencies now results in a sale due to the various loan restructuring programs and
2. the inventory has been hitting the market much faster than people anticipated.

The pie chart below is the projection from JPMorgan of how delinquent mortgages in the US will be resolved this year.

Source: JPMorgan

Here is what this breakdown tells us:

1. Not all of the "shadow inventory" is expected to hit the market.

JPMorgan: ... increased modification efforts and other foreclosure alternatives should remove a sizable amount of inventory ... In addition to the ongoing HAMP and proprietary mod programs, which were pacing at around 500,000 loans annually at the end of 2011, increased incentives to HAMP forgiveness, relaxing DTI [debt-to-income] requirements, and requirements to forgive principal in the AG [Attorney General] settlement should boost modifications by hundreds of thousands more loans. In all, we expect over 1mn loans to be modified in 2012.

2. Short sales are becoming a larger part of liquidations, putting the inventory on the market much faster.

JPMorgan: ... servicers have been aggressively pursuing short sales as a lower severity alternative to foreclosure; short sales are nearly half of liquidations now.
3. REO bulk sale and rental programs will reduce the inventory further.

Overall some 2.5 million loans will be resolved this year. Note that a good percentage of these 2.5 million homes is already listed in the market and therefore is no longer included in the shadow inventory number. Nevertheless this year's mortgage resolutions are expected to materially reduce the supply.

JPMorgan: ... All in, we think over 2.5mn loans could be resolved this year, putting a major dent in inventory. Of course, given the large supply and volume of continuing delinquencies, we expect it will take years to work through all the defaults, but significant progress is being made, which gives us reason to be more bullish on housing than we have been for years

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Nice one Flow5. That's what I like to call keeping your eye on the ball! The big surprise is that this isn't getting any press, all that seems to be out there is that things are falling apart.. Oh wait... ;D

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

You are getting verrry sleepy. Yes that's right, the housing market DIDN'T bottom in '11. Your eyelids are getting heavy now. We are NOT in recovery mode, just keep listening to the demise of America Story.

BlackRock: US housing prices may have hit bottom
prwire.com.au/pr/29690/blackrock-us-housing-prices-may-have-hit-bottom

Blackstone Makes Foray Into Houses For Rent: Mortgages
www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-03/blackstone-makes-foray-into-houses-for-rent-mortgages.html

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

It looks like Blackstone bought a little big more that originally thought.. Imagine that..

Blackstone bets on US housing recovery, buys 2,000-plus homes-for-rent
economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international-business/blackstone-bets-on-us-housing-recovery-buys-2000-plus-homes-for-rent/articleshow/15038851.cms

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Sales first, then prices.

Home Values Post First Year-Over-Year Increase Since 2007
www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-24/home-values-post-first-year-over-year-increase-since-2007.html

[usaone]

Sure looks like housing has turned. More and more of the pundits are jumping on board.

[engleclair]

Jul 30, 2012 12:51:46 GMT -5 usaone said:

Sure looks like housing has turned. More and more of the pundits are jumping on board.

YES!!! Housing is BACK!

Wait, what?

www.northjersey.com/news/164428346_Home_prices_in_region_down_2_8_.html

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Jul 30, 2012 12:51:46 GMT -5 usaone said:

Sure looks like housing has turned. More and more of the pundits are jumping on board.

You got that right USAwon! Man, I've got about 240 emails to go through, all I need is a little time here..

Two Harbors Investment Corp. Completes Public Offering of Common Stock
www.marketwatch.com/story/two-harbors-investment-corp-completes-public-offering-of-common-stock-2012-07-18

Home prices rise for fourth month in May: S&P
www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/31/us-usa-economy-homes-index-idUSBRE86U0P920120731?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&rpc=986

[jarhead1976]

In 700 Shares dws rreef a @ 19. Lets see

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Is this it??

www.dws-investments.com/EN/products/dws-rreef-real-estate-securities-fund.jsp?core-key=2789

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Looks like 10k in 02 would have you at 26k right now..

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

The start of a new bubble already?

CNBC to Promote House Flipping
www.forbes.com/sites/helaineolen/2012/07/25/cnbc-to-promote-house-flipping/

[Driftr]

Aug 2, 2012 0:06:23 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

The start of a new bubble already?

Could be. I looked at Zillow last week and according the them our house is up a lot from 6-7 months ago. Not that we're planning to sell for the next 13-14 years or so, but we've got that going for us. Which is nice.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Sounds like you got a few things going for you right now my friend, especially when you look at the other end of this..

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Some more signals that things have turned a corner in the housing market..

Late payments on mortgages hit 3-year low
www.cbsnews.com/8301-505145_162-57488924/late-payments-on-mortgages-hit-3-year-low/

[Driftr]

Foreclosure filings down again. = Good news.

Foreclosure starts up again. = Bad news.

Gotta take the good with the bad...

money.cnn.com/2012/08/09/real_estate/foreclosure-filings/index.htm

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

How true, the negative on the negative is that increase is the backlog that was put on hold. The good news is that there are lots of firms interested in this new backlog because the shadow inventory has dropped by about 2 million units this year.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Here's the article about Carney if you're interested Driftr.

Bank of Canada's Carney still leaning towards rate hike
www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/09/cbusiness-us-economy-bankofcanada-idCABRE87803620120809?edition=ca

[Driftr]

Aug 9, 2012 23:25:35 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

Here's the article about Carney if you're interested Driftr.

Bank of Canada's Carney still leaning towards rate hike
www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/09/cbusiness-us-economy-bankofcanada-idCABRE87803620120809?edition=ca

It'd be very nice if he could get on the phone to Helicopter Ben and get him to follow that course here.

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

They want the guy to run the UK.. Maybe the FED next? Carney is the next Emperor of the world?? ;D

[Driftr]

Aug 10, 2012 22:07:00 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

They want the guy to run the UK.. Maybe the FED next? Carney is the next Emperor of the world?? ;D

Well he has the right (Goldman) pedigree doesn't he?

[Driftr]

Love it!

HOA forecloses on bank.

South Florida homeowner associations are foreclosing on some of the nation's largest banks, accusing the lenders of failing to pay thousands of dollars in maintenance fees on repossessed properties.

The foreclosure filings are a growing trend as associations become more aggressive in going after delinquent fees that have crippled HOA budgets during the housing bust.

Banks owe a portion of the past-due maintenance fees and the full amount from the date they take title to the property, attorneys said. If the lenders fall behind, they're subject to foreclosure just as an individual owner would be.

www.sun-sentinel.com/business/realestate/fl-hoa-foreclose-banks-20120810,0,5206219.story

[Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger]

Aug 13, 2012 9:48:59 GMT -5 Driftr said:

Aug 10, 2012 22:07:00 GMT -5 Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger said:

They want the guy to run the UK.. Maybe the FED next? Carney is the next Emperor of the world?? ;D

Well he has the right (Goldman) pedigree doesn't he?

Exactly, and he's doing whatever he can to get it so that banks have to have 10% Teir 1 capital. The good with the bad..