|
|
Post by frankq on Jul 3, 2011 9:32:20 GMT -5
Big day coming up,looks like a slider.  Apparently, only for gold........ |
|
usaone
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 9:10:23 GMT -5
Posts: 3,429
|
Post by usaone on Jul 3, 2011 11:28:47 GMT -5
Big day coming up,looks like a slider. Apparently, only for gold........  |
|
|
|
Post by smackdown on Jul 5, 2011 7:35:06 GMT -5
I suspect that this week will be wrought with losses after last week's theft of a steady decline. The Dow jumped without good cause, other than to fund bad campaigns for puppet republicans. We will see quite a bit of that in coming months.
|
|
|
|
Post by maui1 on Jul 7, 2011 11:20:59 GMT -5
i want to make the point that the stock market going up, is not an indication of a strong, sound, economy.
remember, from 2003 until 2008, the stock market went up continually, when almost everyone knew something was seriously wrong with our economy.
|
|
bimetalaupt
Senior Member
Joined: Oct 9, 2011 20:29:23 GMT -5
Posts: 2,325
|
Post by bimetalaupt on Jul 7, 2011 12:26:46 GMT -5
i want to make the point that the stock market going up, is not an indication of a strong, sound, economy. remember, from 2003 until 2008, the stock market went up continually, when almost everyone knew something was seriously wrong with our economy. Maui1, yes.. but most of the large investors I know used the Discounted Cash flow method during this period of time.. Interest was down and risk was low as stated with the Equity Risk Premium of only 3% used buy the leading system( Valu-pro)....If you discount for 5% the values would have been reduced.. This was the sign of the time of under estimating risk.. That was my observation.. As before we made a lot more money in the bond market then the stock. We used the old 50/50 re-balanced hedging system... Just my thought.. IE my Opinion, Bi Metal Au Pt Attachments:
|
|
|
|
Post by maui1 on Jul 7, 2011 13:20:24 GMT -5
yes.. but most of the large investors I know used the Discounted Cash flow method during this period of time..
it sure was not reflected in the 401k accounts of everyone that i was in contact with.......if by using the "discounted cash flow" method, some how, was supposed to be a mitigating factor is less value loss, when the market went to 6k.
|
|
verrip1
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 13:41:19 GMT -5
Posts: 2,992
|
Post by verrip1 on Jul 7, 2011 13:39:01 GMT -5
anecdotal  |
|
|
|
Post by maui1 on Jul 7, 2011 13:50:06 GMT -5
ver- did you know of anyone that had a managed 401k stock market based account that increased in value from 2006/7 (at the 14 peak) to 2009 low of 6K?
learning a new word does nothing to make a point.
if it raining outside, do i have to post a news report to make the comment that "it is raining outside"?
|
|
bimetalaupt
Senior Member
Joined: Oct 9, 2011 20:29:23 GMT -5
Posts: 2,325
|
Post by bimetalaupt on Jul 7, 2011 13:59:10 GMT -5
yes.. but most of the large investors I know used the Discounted Cash flow method during this period of time.. it sure was not reflected in the 401k accounts of everyone that i was in contact with.......if by using the "discounted cash flow" method, some how, was supposed to be a mitigating factor is less value loss, when the market went to 6k. Maui1, Great Point ... K4U.. You keep getting better!!  The Mitigation factor for less loss with total control would be the 50/50 Re-Balancing.( few of us used this system.. FTI and I have posed on the subject a lot over the last three years). Hedge systems.. Great Profits in the Bond market during the 2000's.. Or total return we had were 8.9% on bonds.. I was slow to re-balance and that paid off in March of 2009. Most of the 401k are now owned by major stock/bond investors and few have a balanced systems.. For the record the Southern Baptist Retirement (403b) plan has a very good balanced (50/50) that shielded 5.21% for almost 10 years vs 8.21% for extended bonds.. ( I did not have to pay the 0.75% cost of the fund.. or returned about 8.9%) so my return was better.. Also used the T-Bonds as equity to short. Their high power growth fund yielded 2.63%.. So the bonds did in fact shield the Growth fund asset value from the carnage after 2000.... Just a thought, Bi Metal Au Pt  |
|
bimetalaupt
Senior Member
Joined: Oct 9, 2011 20:29:23 GMT -5
Posts: 2,325
|
Post by bimetalaupt on Jul 7, 2011 14:13:19 GMT -5
ver- did you know of anyone that had a managed 401k stock market based account that increased in value from 2006/7 (at the 14 peak) to 2009 low of 6K? learning a new word does nothing to make a point. if it raining outside, do i have to post a news report to make the comment that "it is raining outside"? maui1, How about bonds.. We were up 11.17% for bonds during that period.. Would have done better but we re-balanced.. FTI also had a lot of bond as did my GF.. She had 80% bonds and 20% cash/short term notes... Now she is more into Bar Bells.. ( 80 bonds/ 20 risk).. like GOLD ( etf) So What is the new Word??? Keep up the great work, Bi Metal Au Pt |
|
|
|
Post by frankq on Jul 7, 2011 20:07:54 GMT -5
I suspect that this week will be wrought with losses after last week's theft of a steady decline. The Dow jumped without good cause, other than to fund bad campaigns for puppet republicans. We will see quite a bit of that in coming months. Oui Vay.......... |
|
bimetalaupt
Senior Member
Joined: Oct 9, 2011 20:29:23 GMT -5
Posts: 2,325
|
Post by bimetalaupt on Jul 7, 2011 21:33:23 GMT -5
I suspect that this week will be wrought with losses after last week's theft of a steady decline. The Dow jumped without good cause, other than to fund bad campaigns for puppet republicans. We will see quite a bit of that in coming months. Frankq Oui Vay.......... or is that Oy vey Well I have been Leaving Brooklyn on the Williamsburg Bridge to go to the "City" for years...or as we say in Texas.. " Total DISMAY" i HAVE ALSO SEEN THE SPELLING OF ] Au Gewalt .. MEANING SHOCK!! OR AMAZEMENT!!.. LOVE YIDDISH!!! YOUR GREAT.. K4U!! Bi Metal Au Pt   |
|
Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger
Senior Associate
Viva La Revolucion!
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 22:22:04 GMT -5
Posts: 12,758
|
Post by Aman A.K.A. Ahamburger on Jul 7, 2011 22:22:43 GMT -5
SO yes maui your point is anecdotal because lots of people do what the Impalers do. |
|
|
|
Post by maui1 on Jul 8, 2011 9:14:45 GMT -5
i will go out on the limb with these two comments.
1- the market is no longer a leading indicatior.....and proof will be that by next year, the loss of gov't stimulus will be felt in our economy, and the market will drop as a result, when it should be seeing that now.
2- the market will lose direction because it has no direction. all it has going for it, is a bunch of people that have no where to put money in order to get a fair return against inflation, and that trap of trying to stay ahead of inflation, will hurt everyone in our country again.
|
|
usaone
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 9:10:23 GMT -5
Posts: 3,429
|
Post by usaone on Jul 8, 2011 9:28:25 GMT -5
i will go out on the limb with these two comments. 1- the market is no longer a leading indicatior.....and proof will be that by next year, the loss of gov't stimulus will be felt in our economy, and the market will drop as a result, when it should be seeing that now. 2- the market will lose direction because it has no direction. all it has going for it, is a bunch of people that have no where to put money in order to get a fair return against inflation, and that trap of trying to stay ahead of inflation, will hurt everyone in our country again. ?? |
|
|
|
Post by maui1 on Jul 8, 2011 9:39:12 GMT -5
here..........i will make it simple for you..........but you always complain that i don't support my ideas.....can't win with you.
1- the market will 'plunge'
2- those in the market will take a hit
|
|
tyfighter3
Well-Known Member
Joined: Dec 20, 2010 13:01:17 GMT -5
Posts: 1,806
|
Post by tyfighter3 on Jul 8, 2011 9:50:56 GMT -5
There is stimulus and then there is stimulus. Cash for Clunkers, more tax payers money to shore up GM that was owned by Tax payers money. We through good money after bad back into the Housing to people that couldn't afford a Mortgage anyway trying to refinance WHAT, and still bailing out the same people that caused it in the first place. I wonder where we would be at today if we through that money to job creation instead?
|
|
decoy409
Junior Associate
Joined: Dec 27, 2010 11:17:19 GMT -5
Posts: 7,582
|
Post by decoy409 on Jul 8, 2011 9:59:57 GMT -5
"Jun 29, 2011, 1:34pm, decoy409 wrote:Big day coming up,looks like a slider. Apparently, only for gold........" (end) Sorry Frank Q. But perhaps you should pay attention,unless of course you just can't help yourself to. V_L, nice observance! tyfighter,it could not happen as there is way to much debt and that money for such things as job creation is a falacy in any meaningful respect. Say,our you keeping good time with the state of the states? Some great creative accounting happening.  |
|
|
|
Post by maui1 on Jul 8, 2011 10:05:19 GMT -5
wrong-
i bought some rentals, and building cash for either more rentals or better rates. rates will be going up, and should have already, if not for gov't stimulus interaction to keep/force them down.
i also like the metals, and own silver coins that i bought a long time ago. i am not sure of of buying today's prices, as i am sure that world gov'ts are doing everything that they can do, to keep metal prices from broadcasting the inflation of their fiat currency printing.
|
|
usaone
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 9:10:23 GMT -5
Posts: 3,429
|
Post by usaone on Jul 8, 2011 10:05:25 GMT -5
The market is down 100 points still within 200 points of its yearly high.
Yaaawwwwwwnnnn.
|
|
|
|
Post by maui1 on Jul 8, 2011 10:12:15 GMT -5
There is stimulus and then there is stimulus. Cash for Clunkers, more tax payers money to shore up GM that was owned by Tax payers money. We through good money after bad back into the Housing to people that couldn't afford a Mortgage anyway trying to refinance WHAT, and still bailing out the same people that caused it in the first place. I wonder where we would be at today if we through that money to job creation instead
i don't think gov't can CREATE jobs with money taken out of the private sector, reduced by political greed, then with what is left, sent into the market to 'create jobs'.
the task of gov't today should be to create an environment that is conducive to job creation. things like less gov't regulation, less tax burden, legal consistency, fairness, smaller gov't, and more of the like endeavors, creates jobs.
doing the opposite seems to have the opposite result.
|
|
decoy409
Junior Associate
Joined: Dec 27, 2010 11:17:19 GMT -5
Posts: 7,582
|
Post by decoy409 on Jul 8, 2011 10:19:25 GMT -5
I get a kick out of burried dirty laundry that never was washed and cleaned up, April 2003 Wall Street Investment Firms Fined Historic $1.4 Billion in Settlement hey and look at the same old same old list with 'who is now who' Terms of the $1.4 billion Wall Street settlement: Individual Brokerage & Analysts Settlement Terms Merrill Lynch Salomon Smith Barney Henry Blodget Credit Suisse Jack Grubman Morgan Stanley Goldman Sachs J.P. Morgan Chase Bear Stearns Lehman Brothers US Bancorp Piper Jaffray UBS Warburg (UBS Paine Webber) this is ongoing history and history repeating itself. And as I continue to say,without 'meaningful' reform,the pot has just got blacker.  |
|
|
|
Post by maui1 on Jul 8, 2011 10:34:32 GMT -5
decoy- fines that are akin to a mosquito bite, does nothing to deter bad behavior.
i would like to see less regulations and less regulation agencies, with very clear rules, and when caught in violation, fine them to oblivion when they have been caught breaking those simple, clear rules.
with very strict clear policy.......you don't have to catch but a few, to have a big impact on all of them.
|
|
decoy409
Junior Associate
Joined: Dec 27, 2010 11:17:19 GMT -5
Posts: 7,582
|
Post by decoy409 on Jul 8, 2011 10:51:13 GMT -5
maui1, oh yes I very much do agree. However would you rather have a 'Fast' drain,or a 'Slow' drain? Break down the above that were fined,and then breakdown the campaing contribution list as well as 'who is who' and where players are playing pieces are located today in political world. Both are of the same body. |
|
|
|
Post by maui1 on Jul 8, 2011 11:37:45 GMT -5
lobbyist are that problem, and we can get rid of lobbyist with enacting short term political office 'term limits', so you take away the value from big companies/unions investing in one politician for long term political gain.
and the elimination of all tax loop holes with one simple, across the board, tax structure that treats everyone the same.....business, union, or individual.
|
|
|
|
Post by maui1 on Jul 11, 2011 7:21:51 GMT -5
todays headline.........
Stock futures plunge on global economic weaknessWorld markets slide after Friday's disappointing US jobs report. China's inflation rate reached a 3-year high in June. A European bailout fund may triple in order to support Italy.
i guess i am not the only one that sees the market for what it is.........even the main stream media, headlines world market PLUNGES.
frank- do you want to know how it feels to be right?
|
|
|
|
Post by maui1 on Jul 11, 2011 15:01:24 GMT -5
what if, timmy is smart enough to play everyone into the dollar and the american stock market in order to devalue all of it, so america clears its debt, credit, and all the banks clear their bad loans, at the overall expense to each world citizen.
but if the whole world deprecates at the same time, then the overall pain of the american public is neutral, and painless.
can he be that smart?
|
|
|
|
Post by maui1 on Jul 11, 2011 15:04:11 GMT -5
NAME LAST CHANGE % CHANGE
# DOW 12,505.76 -151.44 -1.20%
|
|
usaone
Senior Member
Joined: Dec 21, 2010 9:10:23 GMT -5
Posts: 3,429
|
Post by usaone on Jul 11, 2011 15:09:43 GMT -5
Good day to buy!!! Lots of bargains and earning and dividends look good!! Dow 20k!! |
|
|
|
Post by maui1 on Jul 12, 2011 9:16:25 GMT -5
here are the facts........
the people in the markets are edge. when the market moves down with any momentum, the fall will be dramatic, as everyone will be thinking "this is it"! - just the opposite of what you guys are saying about gold and silver.
i don't see that with gold and silver......as everyone knows it is measured against an arbitrary valued, fiat, currency, that is solely based on 'public confidence'.
holding silver and gold, is security, and can not be taken away. the value of your paper money and paper stocks, can be taken away, with loss of confidence, which can be the result of many reasons, to many to mention.
|
|
