the stock market plunges-"I" Told You So

[usaone]

Jun 24, 2011 10:49:14 GMT -5 @maui1 said:

usa- silver started the year at 31.......where do you get your numbers that mean anything? seems as a long term investor, that you claim to be....something up by more that 10% would have value to you.

It says from the high of the year..........reread my post.

[maui1]

i know what you wrote..........but it reflects the large run up in silver over a 2 week period, to make your point.

easy to pick a certain time and a certain number to make the point you want to make.......but are you really making a point?

[usaone]

The highs of the year are a very important point.

Especially to the investors who took the advice of people pushing metals and bought during that period.

[maui1]

what were you saying when the stock market was drooping almost 10% in one day?

flash crash?

do you know the points i can make with those statistics?

[usaone]

The stock market finished the day down 3%.

[silverdollar]

This message has been deleted.

[verrip1]

This message has been deleted.

[verrip1]

I saw the S&P at -1.17%. Maybe it wasn't the close.

[frankq]

I saw gold down 1.3% today. Silver is off 25% of it's high. Timing is everything ......

[usaone]

Jun 24, 2011 15:05:38 GMT -5 usaone said:

The stock market finished the day down 3%.

Market was down 3% the day of the flash crash.

[maui1]

Market was down 3% the day of the flash crash.

The May 6, 2010 Flash Crash[1] also known as The Crash of 2:45, the 2010 Flash Crash or just simply, the Flash Crash, was a United States stock market crash on May 6, 2010 in which the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged about 900 points - or about nine percent - only to recover those losses within minutes. It was the second largest point swing, 1,010.14 points,[2] and the biggest one-day point decline, 998.5 points, on an intraday basis in Dow Jones Industrial Average history.[3

the dow ENDED the day down 3% for the day.........there big differance between 9% and 3% during a trading day.

so the stock market going down 10% in one day, is not unrealistic.

[usaone]

Jun 27, 2011 12:31:03 GMT -5 @wxyz said:

The plunge in 1987 was 22.6% in one day. A very surreal experience for those of us that were investors at the time.

Yes and there is a BIG difference in FINISHING down 3% and 23%.

The flash crash was NOTHING compared to 1987.

[maui1]

i agree 'big difference' in the two........but not so big if you have a call or put option, or a stop or buy order.

[maui1]

here is my support for this thread

the markets are no longer a forecaster of things to come......it has become a day trader, as the overall trading population has become 'day traders'

everyday, if greece is 'OK' things trade well on the market. if greece is NOT OK, then all the markets trade poorly.

i give the markets credit, in the fact that they know how important, greece is to the overall world fiat money situation, but if they trade the future, as has been the mantra for the market, we would be way past greece and either into a bull or bear market by now.

[usaone]

Home prices UP in 13 out of 20 cities.

[maui1]

Real Estate Home Appreciation - Last 12 Months
Last Updated: 6/1/2011

The median price in the West was $203,400, down 6.1 percent from a year ago.

The median home price, the point at which half of all homes are sold for more and half are sold for less, rose every where but the Northeast. FROM THE MONTH BEFORE

In the Northeast, the median price fell to $225,400 in April from $232,900 the month before, and it was down 7.3 percent over last year's price.

The median price in the Midwest rose to $133,200 from $126,100 in March. The new price is down 5.1 percent from the year before.

In the South, the price rose to $142,800 in April from $138,200, and fell 4.1 percent in a year-over-year comparison.

The median price in the West increased to $203,400 from $192,100 in March. It fell 6.1 percent, however, from the previous year.

[maui1]

usa- you are the master of short, unsubstantiated, (mis)information

[Deleted]

The question is, what will happen now?

Are we finally at the bottom, and will prices slowly creep up?

Are there still pockets of trouble where prices are not done going down?

How much inventory is still out there....that needs to be taken off the banks books, and actually sold.

Those are my questions....

Any answers?

[usaone]

Sales were up in 13 out of 20 cities. You can spin that negatively if you want. Housing has bottomed in 30% of the country. That number will rise to over 50% by next year.

[usaone]

The tide is turning.

[maui1]

Those are my questions....
Any answers?


there is only answer...........and that answer is for the gov't to get out of the way, so a clear picture can be seen. until that happens, no one........not even usa- can tell you the direction........but my guess is that we willl continue going no where until we find a true bottom.

i will find and post what i posted earlier on another thread

[maui1]

3.5 million homes foreclosed since 2007

right now 1.5 million homes are 90 days past due or later

right now 9 million homes are past due 30 days to 90 days

since 2008, 90% of all home loans are being done by our gov't

everyday, we move closer to judgment day, that has only been delayed with the gov't veil of stimulus.

[usaone]

The government is out as much as they are going to be.

The tide has turned.

All that above is old news.

Look forward not behind.

You did the same thing with Gold and Silver.

[maui1]

what i would really like to see.........are the numbers of people that the gov't enticed into buying their 1st home, with the home buyers credits of 2008-9-and 10. now all with mortgages which are underwater.

how many of those homes are now 90 days past due and headed to foreclosure.

most, if not all of these loans were done with nothing out of pocket, and continues the backlog in delinquencies, not to mention the hurt it put on new families and our young.

again....the best intentions of our gov't, just hurts us more and more

[flow5]

All these nose dives are due to gross monetary policy errors. Take Black Monday Oct. 19, 1987. Monetary flows (our means-of-payment money X’s the transactions rate of turnover), fell from 16 in AUG to 4 in NOV (the proxy for inflation).

Simultaneously (in the months Sept. & Oct 87 prior to the crash), the rate-of-changes in the proxy for real-gDp declined significantly sharper than in any prior period (since Jan 1918). The proxy declined from 11 in JUL to (-)4 in OCT.

The preceding contractionary monetary policy (FFR & discount rates were both raised .5% on 9/4/1987) – combined with the sharp reduction in short-term money flows, had forced all interest rates up in the short run (at the same time as inflation was subsiding).

30 year conventional mortgages yields had recently risen to 11.26 percent, & moody's 30 year AAA corporate bonds rose to yield 11.06 percent by 10/19/87 (this is the cause in the divergence of in the STOCK/BOND RATIO).....

Bank squaring day was the actual trigger. Banks scrambled for reserves at the end of their 2 week maintenance period - to support their loans-deposits (contemporaneous reserve requirements were in effect exacerbating the shortfall and response time). A significant number of banks, or large banks with large reserve deficiencies, tried to settle their obligations at the last moment, which pricked the bubble.

See rise in FFR data towards 10/19/87:


1987-09-01 6.84
1987-09-02 6.77
1987-09-03 6.84
1987-09-04 6.85
1987-09-05 6.85
1987-09-06 6.85
1987-09-07 6.85
1987-09-08 7.15
1987-09-09 7.23
1987-09-10 7.19
1987-09-11 7.13
1987-09-12 7.13
1987-09-13 7.13
1987-09-14 7.24
1987-09-15 7.42
1987-09-16 7.26
1987-09-17 7.09
1987-09-18 7.05
1987-09-19 7.05
1987-09-20 7.05
1987-09-21 7.32
1987-09-22 7.54
1987-09-23 7.74
1987-09-24 7.35
1987-09-25 7.27
1987-09-26 7.27
1987-09-27 7.27
1987-09-28 7.48
1987-09-29 7.90
1987-09-30 8.38
1987-10-01 7.71
1987-10-02 7.42
1987-10-03 7.42
1987-10-04 7.42
1987-10-05 7.45
1987-10-06 7.32
1987-10-07 7.30
1987-10-08 7.55
1987-10-09 7.58
1987-10-10 7.58
1987-10-11 7.58
1987-10-12 7.58
1987-10-13 7.65
1987-10-14 7.59
1987-10-15 7.76
1987-10-16 7.55
1987-10-17 7.55
1987-10-18 7.55
1987-10-19 7.61 Bank Squaring Day
1987-10-20 7.07
1987-10-21 6.47
1987-10-22 7.14
1987-10-23 7.00
1987-10-24 7.00
1987-10-25 7.00
1987-10-26 7.24
1987-10-27 7.14
1987-10-28 6.72

[flow5]

Written on Mar 30 11:31 am prior to the MAY 6th FLASH CRASH:

"Contrary to economic theory, & Nobel laureate Dr. Milton Friedman, monetary lags are not "long & variable". The lags for monetary flows (MVt), i.e., the proxies for (1) real-growth, and for (2) inflation indices, are historically, always, fixed in length. However the lag for nominal gdp (the FED's target??), varies widely."

Assuming no quick countervailing stimulus:

2010
jan..... 0.54.... 0.25 top
feb..... 0.50.... 0.10
mar.... 0.54.... 0.08
apr..... 0.46.... 0.09 top
may.... 0.41.... 0.01 stocks fall

Been saying this for the last 6 months. Should see shortly. Stock market makes a double top in Jan & Apr. Then the real-output of final goods & services falls/inverts from (9) to (1) from Apr to May.

Recent history indicates that this will be a marked, short, one month drop, in rate-of-change for real-output (-8). So stocks follow the economy down (with yields moving sympathetically?)"
Mar 30 11:31 am


The FED was able to inject liquidity to offset this decline. The FALL in these numbers was later erased.


Also:

flow5 Message #10 - 05/03/10 07:30 PM
The markets usually turn (pivot) on May 5th (+ or - 1 day).

[flow5]

flow5 (2/26/07; 14:34:35MT - usagold.com msg#: 152672)

Suckers Rally

If gold doesn't fall, then there's a new paradigm.
============
Some people think Feb 27, 2007 started across the ocean. "On Feb. 28, Bernanke told the House Budget Committee he could see no single factor that caused the market's pullback a day earlier". In fact, it was home grown. It was the seventh biggest one-day point drop ever for the Dow. On a percentage basis, the Dow lost about 3.3 percent - its biggest one-day percentage loss since March 2003.

=============

The FED is responsible for almost all of our economic problems.

[bimetalaupt]

Jun 28, 2011 11:58:57 GMT -5 @gdgyva said:

The question is, what will happen now?

Are we finally at the bottom, and will prices slowly creep up?

Are there still pockets of trouble where prices are not done going down?

How much inventory is still out there....that needs to be taken off the banks books, and actually sold.

Those are my questions....

Any answers?

Gdgyva,
I can not find a source of data to back this up but I understood that the average price of housing increased in value about the same as inflation over the last 100-150 years.. The almost double price in the last 10 years will have to be corrected so what we are seeing is a regression to the means for house prices.. Most of the bank owned real estate is far about that price and no one wants to buy it because of the nature of all the empty home in some areas. I was looking for a house in Kingman,AZ in 2008 and the information about future prices as just mostly price to fantastic. It looks like the areas that had the price drop fast and first are doing the best at recovery.. I know in West Texas prices did not go up a lot before the crash so the bank do not have a lot of houses on their books.. Most loan out here are by FHA as the average price is about $85 to $110/ sq foot. Prices should increase with inflation as you can not build at these prices..
Just my thoughts,
Bi Metal Au Pt

[maui1]

Prices should increase with inflation as you can not build at these prices..

that is why (real) new home sales are not moving........old inventory keeps ( new/old but never sold), are keeping prices below the build cost.

in fl, you can buy all day long under build cost, so why would an investor build?

[decoy409]

Big day coming up,looks like a slider.