djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 14, 2020 18:09:20 GMT -5
1M cases a week worldwide, right now. at this pace, we will develop a vaccine well before we get herd immunity. if we follow the rules, that is.
if we don't, millions will die.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jun 14, 2020 18:14:17 GMT -5
1M cases a week worldwide, right now. at this pace, we will develop a vaccine well before we get herd immunity. if we follow the rules, that is. if we don't, millions will die. Herd immunity will take about 2.5 years, give or take a few months. If it doesn’t it will be chaos. If we don’t have a vaccine by then, oh boy
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 14, 2020 18:20:32 GMT -5
yeah, I don't think people realize how excruciating the math is on this.
5000 people per day are dying. that is 1M every seven months.
imagine what happens in INDIA if they do as poorly as we have. in s few months, there will be one million dead, there.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jun 14, 2020 18:23:47 GMT -5
yeah, I don't think people realize how excruciating the math is on this. 5000 people per day are dying. that is 1M every seven months. imagine what happens in INDIA if they do as poorly as we have. in s few months, there will be one million dead, there. . Well, herd immunity requires about 70% of us to be infected. Population of 9 billion, 6.3 billion infected. 1% mortality( I know, just to be easy calculation), is 63 million dead. Think that might cause some major upheavals worldwide
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jun 14, 2020 18:25:20 GMT -5
Don’t like1%, cut it in half. 30 million dead. Sound any better?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 15, 2020 1:29:33 GMT -5
I am thinking more like 1.5% = 100M
this is the Spanish Flu, 2020 style.
note: all of this assumes minimal social distancing and no vaccine.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Jun 16, 2020 9:06:24 GMT -5
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jun 16, 2020 9:35:36 GMT -5
Nah, he’s right. He wouldn’t see any cases. As for me, we would continue to see them. To trump, even if 500k die by the end of the year, if they don’t test, then they didn’t die from coronavirus but from pneumonia. Then he can claim we have no cases, and some people will believe him.
Unfortunately for him, there is one nasty detail. The hospital will still test, because they need to keep patients and staff safe, and to know what we are treating. If you don’t test, everyone needs to be treated as if they have it, or you risk speaking it to other patients and staff. Bad publicity and malpractice suits follow. Even trumpist physicians will do anything to avoid being sued
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Jun 16, 2020 10:33:00 GMT -5
. Tests are what is causing the virus. Like doh!
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Spellbound454
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Post by Spellbound454 on Jun 16, 2020 12:24:17 GMT -5
They have just announced that the steroid dexamethasone can reduce deaths in seriously ill Covid patients by up to a third. First one proven to work and hopefully one of several. Its an old drug, its cheap and all hospitals already have it.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jun 16, 2020 12:25:43 GMT -5
They have just announced that the steroid dexamethasone can reduce deaths in seriously ill Covid patients by up to a third. First one proven to work and hopefully one of several. Its an old drug, its cheap and all hospitals already have it.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-53059487 Interesting, but need to see details. Many studies have had problems with methods when they are held to the usual scrutiny, but yes, if it works, would be a greatthing
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Spellbound454
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Post by Spellbound454 on Jun 16, 2020 12:33:31 GMT -5
Sorry I have put the wrong link up At least there is a treatment..... and there is more results to com from all over the world.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jun 16, 2020 12:47:44 GMT -5
Sorry I have put the wrong link up At least there is a treatment..... and there is more results to com from all over the world.
Have you seen anything other than a press release? Sorry been a physician a long time, and I am skeptical by nature. Given all the announcements, retractions, and bad science, I would like to see more. Great news if true, as we would have something more to offer, and gives some direction to the research that needs to be done
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Spellbound454
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Post by Spellbound454 on Jun 16, 2020 13:06:06 GMT -5
It will be on the medical and pharmaceutical literature by now All I've seen is the PM announcement during the daily briefing..... and then is been in the News Professor Peter Horby, from Oxford University said he treated 2000 critically ill patients against 4000 in a control from cnn Its not a magic bullet but it works... and in the sickest patients. Not a cure but a treatment
Critical British patients are having this as standard....from today.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jun 16, 2020 13:31:43 GMT -5
Still not in peer reviewed literature yet. Again, interesting, but the devil is in the details. Remember, hydroxychloroquine was used because of preliminary data, and that didn't work out so well. Dexamethasone is not without risk. If it is combined with paralytics, it can lead to critical illness polyneuropathy. It is an extremely strong steroid, and can suppress the immune response, leading to superinfection, create havoc with blood glucose control, increasing risk of infection, cause delirium(in a group already at risk), so again, caution is needed. The real world effect of treatment is usually not as good as the study results.
I am interested in this study, and far more optimistic that it works than I was with hydroxychloroquine. It will be interesting to see the response when it has the ability to be scrutinized
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Spellbound454
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Post by Spellbound454 on Jun 16, 2020 14:35:14 GMT -5
The Recovery trial has been testing various drugs. Like you say, wait to scrutinise the data.
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Spellbound454
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Post by Spellbound454 on Jun 18, 2020 4:26:24 GMT -5
Should just add that releasing the preliminary results though the press is not the usual avenue............. and the paper will be out later out this month. but the Scientists decided not to sit on the information given that there is a pandemic... and people who could use this information straight away. Its a familiar drug and some doctors have been using this strategy anyway..... At least they have a large study to back them up.(even if preliminary)
It has long been suspected that a low dose may help to dampen cytokine responses in the very ill ......and now it appears that it does. There will be scrutiny of course...... and the standard for Covid care may change ... but right now.......It was the right decision.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jun 18, 2020 6:01:50 GMT -5
All kinds of news and studies have been released this way during the pandemic, many of them did not stand up to scrutiny, and in the case of hydroxychroloquine, likely contributed to thousands of death. Will you excuse my skepticism over this until the study is released?
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Spellbound454
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Post by Spellbound454 on Jun 18, 2020 6:36:41 GMT -5
Yes of course....... However, It was the same UK scientists in the same Recovery trial study who flagged up that hydroxychroloquine did not work and could be dangerous. It is one of the respected studies......... Lets hope it stands up to scrutiny. Lots of questions yet to be answered.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 18, 2020 12:38:16 GMT -5
They have just announced that the steroid dexamethasone can reduce deaths in seriously ill Covid patients by up to a third. First one proven to work and hopefully one of several. Its an old drug, its cheap and all hospitals already have it. this /\ is the reason I am REASONABLY CONFIDENT we will not have nearly the "worst case scenario" possible. this is not 1918. virology is not a nascent science. there are probably literally 1M people working on this.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jun 18, 2020 13:06:15 GMT -5
They have just announced that the steroid dexamethasone can reduce deaths in seriously ill Covid patients by up to a third. First one proven to work and hopefully one of several. Its an old drug, its cheap and all hospitals already have it. this /\ is the reason I am REASONABLY CONFIDENT we will not have nearly the "worst case scenario" possible. this is not 1918. virology is not a nascent science. there are probably literally 1M people working on this. Despite the incompetence our leaders have shown(and my fury at that), I have significant faith in our ability to "science" our way out of it. Our understanding of infectious disease is light-years better than in 1918, and the ability to treat complications is unbelievable. Given time, resources, and patience, we have the ability to make this disaster far less deadly than it might be otherwise. What I am concerned about is are we smart enough to do what needs to be done in the interim. Unfortunately, the jury is still out on that. We wil clearly make it worse than it need be if we were smart
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Post by Opti on Jun 18, 2020 15:42:08 GMT -5
And now for something somewhat different. According to an online blurb, 40% of NJ's deaths were in nursing homes. Too depressing for me to want to read the article. Anyone read or hear of stats similar to that?
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jun 18, 2020 15:48:45 GMT -5
And now for something somewhat different. According to an online blurb, 40% of NJ's deaths were in nursing homes. Too depressing for me to want to read the article. Anyone read or hear of stats similar to that? We are over 50%
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Post by NomoreDramaQ1015 on Jun 18, 2020 15:50:56 GMT -5
While I understand the need to shut down there is a part of me that is worried about what stories of abuse we are going to here in some of these homes because they aren't being checked on by anyone. Same with group homes for special needs adults/kids.
I am not painting everyone who works there as bad apples. It just concerns me that we did all this without anything in place as far as oversight.
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Post by Opti on Jun 18, 2020 15:53:09 GMT -5
And now for something somewhat different. According to an online blurb, 40% of NJ's deaths were in nursing homes. Too depressing for me to want to read the article. Anyone read or hear of stats similar to that? We are over 50% Wow and . NJ is requiring workers in nursing homes to be tested for the virus every week.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jun 18, 2020 15:58:09 GMT -5
Wow and . NJ is requiring workers in nursing homes to be tested for the virus every week. Unsolvable problem. Testing weekly may help, but won't prevent it. Only need to miss one for it to be a disaster. Why PPE and masks are such a big thing in infection control. Nursing homes are the perfect storm for this infection.
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Post by Opti on Jun 18, 2020 16:13:55 GMT -5
I don't think testing will prevent it either. From what I can see it is giving some of my co-workers a false sense of security.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 18, 2020 16:24:00 GMT -5
Wow and . NJ is requiring workers in nursing homes to be tested for the virus every week. Unsolvable problem. Testing weekly may help, but won't prevent it. Only need to miss one for it to be a disaster. Why PPE and masks are such a big thing in infection control. Nursing homes are the perfect storm for this infection. I reiterate the language the CDC used months ago. for the elderly, the COVID19 virus is:
"the perfectly designed killing machine"
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jun 18, 2020 16:32:13 GMT -5
I don't think testing will prevent it either. From what I can see it is giving some of my co-workers a false sense of security. That is one problem with it. What people fail to appreciate with infectious diseases is that the risk is higher from the ones you do not know/suspect. When someone is identified, you take adequate precautions. Otherwise you let your guard done. Vigilance is required to stay healthy and prevent spread. This is why putting procedures in palce and following them to a T is important to keep this under control.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jun 18, 2020 16:34:07 GMT -5
Unsolvable problem. Testing weekly may help, but won't prevent it. Only need to miss one for it to be a disaster. Why PPE and masks are such a big thing in infection control. Nursing homes are the perfect storm for this infection. I reiterate the language the CDC used months ago. for the elderly, the COVID19 virus is:
"the perfectly designed killing machine"
Yes, this is a virus that needs to be respected. It is perfectly designed to do what it needs to, it reproduces and spreads even before you aqre ill. More efficient that way, and once it has done what it needs to do, it discards you. It does not care if you survive or not.
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