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Post by Spellbound454 on Jun 18, 2020 19:16:37 GMT -5
We in the UK planned for a pandemic flu (Avian) ... higher mortality but not so easily spread.
Even Sars and Mers Corona viruses were higher mortality but not so easily spread.
What we didn't plan for, (and why the modelling was wrong)..... is this Covid19 virus is sited higher in the respiratory tract........and is more infectious
Its spread all over the World....with alarming ease.
We have about a third deaths in nursing homes..... Many places are just not built for infection control, they are mostly privately run and some employees work in multiple places.
the best way to avoid disillusionment is to avoid illusions.
-dj
It is not wise to keep the fires going under a slander unless you can get some large advantage out of keeping it alive. Few slanders can stand the wear of silence.
the best way to avoid disillusionment is to avoid illusions.
-dj
It is not wise to keep the fires going under a slander unless you can get some large advantage out of keeping it alive. Few slanders can stand the wear of silence.
Out of nothing; everything. Believing is seeing. Knowing is key. Remember to top off your positive tank daily. TAKE THAT INTERNET! - DVD Commentary Monsters University
the best way to avoid disillusionment is to avoid illusions.
-dj
It is not wise to keep the fires going under a slander unless you can get some large advantage out of keeping it alive. Few slanders can stand the wear of silence.
Post by Artemis Windsong on Jun 21, 2020 17:41:38 GMT -5
From where I am sitting, the covid cases are increasing as fast as throwing gasoline on the fire in some states like Arizona.
Cases are up in my home state.
I have 2 adult grandchildren who are fairly certain they had novel coronavirus at the beginning of the pandemic. Misdiagnosed by the doctors. They compared their symptoms and antibiotics did not help at all.
Quit when you’ll be mediocre, when the returns aren’t worth the investment, when you no longer think you’ll enjoy the ends. Stick when the dip is the obstacle that creates scarcity, when you’re simply bridging the gap between beginner’s luck and mastery.The Dip, Seth Godin
In all circumstances "Be strong and courageous" (Josh.1:9)
Every day stand guard at the door of your mind, and you alone will decide on what thoughts and beliefs you let into your life. Tony Robbins
From where I am sitting, the covid cases are increasing as fast as throwing gasoline on the fire in some states like Arizona.
Cases are up in my home state.
I have 2 adult grandchildren who are fairly certain they had novel coronavirus at the beginning of the pandemic. Misdiagnosed by the doctors. They compared their symptoms and antibiotics did not help at all.
You mean before we had tests to confirm the diagnosis? And before we had a better idea of the clinical symptoms and course? Would you be surprised that we are unable to find the cause of pneumonia in half of the cases, even in studies that do every test we have. Symptoms of many of the bacteria and viruses overlap, so symptoms are an unreliable way of determining the cause in many cases.
This is why testing is important to diagnose an illness, despite what the president claims
From where I am sitting, the covid cases are increasing as fast as throwing gasoline on the fire in some states like Arizona.
Cases are up in my home state.
I have 2 adult grandchildren who are fairly certain they had novel coronavirus at the beginning of the pandemic. Misdiagnosed by the doctors. They compared their symptoms and antibiotics did not help at all.
Antibiotics aren't effective against any virus, including the common cold.
The only people who never make mistakes are those who aren't doing anything. When you give voice to your anger you're speaking through your brain's more primitive limbic system not its cortex. Is that what you want?
That's another big hole in people's logic. I can't count the times that people around me have said - I had something awful in dec, jan, feb, March so I'm sure I had it. Combine that with reports that it was in the US a few months earlier.
Heck, my basketball team had something nasty in late Feb that kept these 10 to 12 yo girls out of school a full week or two. Crossed my mind that maybe it was covid. But given the stats, it's highly, highly unlikely so I'm quite sure they weren't. But that takes logic, reason, and common sense.
That's another big hole in people's logic. I can't count the times that people around me have said - I had something awful in dec, jan, feb, March so I'm sure I had it. Combine that with reports that it was in the US a few months earlier.
Heck, my basketball team had something nasty in late Feb that kept these 10 to 12 yo girls out of school a full week or two. Crossed my mind that maybe it was covid. But given the stats, it's highly, highly unlikely so I'm quite sure they weren't. But that takes logic, reason, and common sense.
We flew back from South America mid Jan. Our last night in Argentina, we had dinner with a couple who had just flown in from San Francisco. We then proceeded to get on a plane and walk through 3 very busy international airports to get home.
TD got sick about 5 days later, I felt crappy a few days after this. It was really nothing substantial. I don’t remember thinking much about it, other than having been gone a month that there were a lot of errands I needed to run.
Despite flying through what was to become the epicenter 3 weeks later, I wonder.....but getting some sort of crud at the end of the trip is more common than not for us. At least it happens at the end!
This weekend the concept of a p*ssing section in the pool came home to roost. While the Bay Area kept its SIP order in place longer than other nearby counties, people just had to go out to those "safe" reopened areas over memorial day weekend and beyond. Today showed highest number of new diagnoses in quite a while. Almost double from where we were. And hospitalizations are up by ~50%
Sign me NOT A HAPPY CAMPER
ETA: there ia probably also some BLM protest rally effect in this increase.
Still not a happy camper though that is at least somrhing I have understanding for.
From where I am sitting, the covid cases are increasing as fast as throwing gasoline on the fire in some states like Arizona.
Cases are up in my home state.
I have 2 adult grandchildren who are fairly certain they had novel coronavirus at the beginning of the pandemic. Misdiagnosed by the doctors. They compared their symptoms and antibiotics did not help at all.
Have they gotten the anti-body test? I can't wait for that to be reliable and more common so all these idiots can STFU. Including my husband.
PMD, what are your thoughts regarding the national case count trending upward and the death counts trending downward? It's stark and I'm struggling to understand what the data is saying.
You've told me in the past that deaths are a trailing indicator and I've taken that to heart. I've now adjusted my thinking to expect a much, much longer lag between the detection of infections and reported deaths. To hang some numbers on this, I once believed that the lag was something like two weeks (I am ashamed of this) but I now think that it might be something more like five weeks and possibly getting longer due to increased and possibly speedier testing of possible new infections. Am I still off on the timeline?
Are the curves diverging because we are doing a much better job of protecting the most vulnerable (either due to physiology or occupation) or is something else going on?
Feel free to slap up a link to something that I should have already read. I won't be offended by a reading list.
ETA: Nothing in this post should be interpreted as doubting that things are going badly. I'm just trying to understand what the data is saying.
Post by Spellbound454 on Jun 24, 2020 6:00:20 GMT -5
The Recovery trial paper on Dexamethasone was released yesterday............ though I don't know where it is.
The only peer assessment I have seen for it, recommends its use......... but only in very specific circumstances ... (inflammatory cytokine storm)
for which there will be blood indicators.
There appears to be no advantage in early treatment.......and possibly harm when people need their immunity to fight the disease.
Some Countries are already using it, they were anyway.... and the WHO is collating all the information they have.
Seems to have annoyed quite a lot of people in that its not an expensive new treatment made by big pharma........ and that the initial announcement was a press release.
Remdesivir looks to have an effect in recovery time but its quite difficult to get hold of....we don't have it for general use
There are quite a number of very good drug trials going on all over the World (and we'll wait for the results)..... and I think 8 vaccines in human trials....with loads of others in the pipeline.
There is protectionism going on....... and several organisations have got together to make sure that poorer Countries don't miss out.
As a non medic (UK School teacher) that's the best I can do for now
Haapi - I read somewhere, likely NYT, that one of the leading indicators is number of cases about 20 days out. The reasoning was that this gives the virus enough time to infect two layers of people where you can start to see the real growth.
My gut says it will be hard to tell what came from the protests as so many starts were opening up widely or did shortly thereafter. The increase is likely to be a mix of the two.
PMD, what are your thoughts regarding the national case count trending upward and the death counts trending downward? It's stark and I'm struggling to understand what the data is saying.
You've told me in the past that deaths are a trailing indicator and I've taken that to heart. I've now adjusted my thinking to expect a much, much longer lag between the detection of infections and reported deaths. To hang some numbers on this, I once believed that the lag was something like two weeks (I am ashamed of this) but I now think that it might be something more like five weeks and possibly getting longer due to increased and possibly speedier testing of possible new infections. Am I still off on the timeline?
Are the curves diverging because we are doing a much better job of protecting the most vulnerable (either due to physiology or occupation) or is something else going on?
Feel free to slap up a link to something that I should have already read. I won't be offended by a reading list.
ETA: Nothing in this post should be interpreted as doubting that things are going badly. I'm just trying to understand what the data is saying.
Complicated question with many factors.
Death is a lagging indicator, what we are seeing now reflects what was going on weeks ago, when infections were declining. Arizona's ICUs are over 80% full, and Texas is converting a CHildren's Hospital to admit adults. Both are concerning for an increase in severe cases and deaths.
1 Infections are increasing again, and are in part due to increased testing(Trump is partially right, blind pig/acorn). 2 The average age of infected people has declined. Lower risk of deaths should mean it is not as horrible from a number standpoint. We are now identifying infections we could not 3 months ago due to lack of testing. Mortality should decline closer to what we believe it to be. Even so, with a 1% mortality, that would still be over 300 deaths/day, or just under 200,000 a year, far better than previous projections, but still poor 3 Infection control is better understood, PPE is better available, so it appears we may be keeping it out of nursing homes. Once it gets in one, it is a disaster. 4 We understand the disease better, and know what doesn't work, so even though we do not have an effective treatment, we still are doing better.
Now for more cynical interpretations
1 We are no longer killing people with hydroxychloroquine 2 Deaths are being hidden. Given the complaints from republicans over this issue, I have no doubt this is playing a role.
We will see if things really are better in a month, as it will take that long for these new infections to work their way through the system.
Post by Spellbound454 on Jun 24, 2020 16:36:11 GMT -5
I should update my post. There are 13 vaccines in clinical trials
There are more than 120 coronavirus vaccines in early development across the world. Most of these will never get beyond the laboratory. A further 13 are now in clinical trials: five in China, three in the United States, two in the UK, one in Australia, Germany and Russia.
Brilliant Scientists and Researchers across the World.... and brave souls taking part in the trials. Good luck everyone.
From where I am sitting, the covid cases are increasing as fast as throwing gasoline on the fire in some states like Arizona.
Cases are up in my home state.
I have 2 adult grandchildren who are fairly certain they had novel coronavirus at the beginning of the pandemic. Misdiagnosed by the doctors. They compared their symptoms and antibiotics did not help at all.
Have they gotten the anti-body test? I can't wait for that to be reliable and more common so all these idiots can STFU. Including my husband.
I haven't asked. I will when I see them.
My golf friend was anti-body tested when giving bloos. She was negative.
Quit when you’ll be mediocre, when the returns aren’t worth the investment, when you no longer think you’ll enjoy the ends. Stick when the dip is the obstacle that creates scarcity, when you’re simply bridging the gap between beginner’s luck and mastery.The Dip, Seth Godin
In all circumstances "Be strong and courageous" (Josh.1:9)
Every day stand guard at the door of your mind, and you alone will decide on what thoughts and beliefs you let into your life. Tony Robbins
the best way to avoid disillusionment is to avoid illusions.
-dj
It is not wise to keep the fires going under a slander unless you can get some large advantage out of keeping it alive. Few slanders can stand the wear of silence.
Have they gotten the anti-body test? I can't wait for that to be reliable and more common so all these idiots can STFU. Including my husband.
I haven't asked. I will when I see them.
My golf friend was anti-body tested when giving bloos. She was negative.
Shocking. I don't think there are millions of people out there who had it before they heard about it. I just don't. I hope I am wrong, and we are millions upon millions of people ahead on herd immunity. But I just don't think that everyone who had a fever or cough in February had Covid. I think they had a regular cold or flu, just like every other year.