pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Apr 21, 2020 19:43:45 GMT -5
i have been looking at the data again this afternoon.
so, we have approximate the same number of cases per million as France. France has lower number of tests per capita, which might account for the difference. but they also have nearly 3x the number of deaths per million as we do. so, from that, I am projecting the following range of possible deaths in the US;
currentUSdeaths*deathspermillion(france)/deathspermillion(US)*deaths = 105,000 max 105000*testspermillion(france)/testspermillion(US) = 60,000 min
of course, this assumes that France has no more deaths, which is obviously wrong. they have 5400 critical cases right now, and 100k active cases that are not critical. many of them will die. so those numbers will go higher (both min and max).
I don't know how the Washington site is coming up with 68k, but it does fall in the range, so maybe things will go far better for us than France, but I doubt it.
edit: that site has underestimated the peak death twice already. we are clearly NOT at the peak yet. but we might be getting near to it. sometime in April, I would guess.....? We will blow past 60,000 easily. We are at 45,000, and there are 14,000 serious/critical cases. Estimate a 50% mortality of those, so an additional 7,000 without any more cases. If you look at our mortality, it’s about 5% of confirmed cases. So to reach 60,000, we need an additional 160,000 cases. At the current rate, that’s another 6 days. I don’t see how we have less than 90000 deaths. Didn’t Trump say if less than 100k die, he did a good job. MAGA
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on May 2, 2020 18:13:09 GMT -5
above post is still spot on, 11 days later.
the curves are flattening everywhere, but we are still seeing linear growth in cases and deaths, meaning that the virus will continue going until all available hosts are consumed. we need LINEAR DOWN.
when we have achieved that, we can predict when this first round of the virus will end.
until then, it will just hang around until Winter, then get far worse.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on May 2, 2020 18:14:23 GMT -5
PS- we passed Italy and Switzerland today in cases per million- and with much lower testing.
we are now in the top 15 in cases/million and deaths/million. we will go higher.
MAGA!
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on May 4, 2020 18:03:18 GMT -5
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on May 4, 2020 18:36:51 GMT -5
Boy, that was a dramatic jump. Am I selfish for saying that I hope the extra deaths don’t happen in my area. Given how quickly we got to 70k, it is not unreasonable. Depressing, but reasonable
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deminmaine
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Post by deminmaine on May 5, 2020 7:24:26 GMT -5
How is this for math_ Cases Worldwide- 3M, Cases in USA- 1M Population of China - 1B+, India- 1B+, EU- 560M+, USA- 340M,
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on May 5, 2020 7:58:26 GMT -5
Are we tired of winning yet?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on May 8, 2020 20:19:30 GMT -5
another bleak milestone: 4M cases today. the US is reporting 25k new cases per day, without attenuation. there are more states with increasing cases than decreasing, by far: www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.htmlI am deeply concerned looking at the graphs at the bottom of that page. even CA doesn't look too hot.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on May 8, 2020 20:20:31 GMT -5
Russia and Brazil look perfectly awful. it looks like the epicenter of the disease is moving to one of those two spots.
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Post by djAdvocate on May 21, 2020 0:45:50 GMT -5
Russia and Brazil look perfectly awful. it looks like the epicenter of the disease is moving to one of those two spots. both still look awful. Brazil is going to overtake the US in daily cases, probably tomorrow.
5M cases worldwide. we broke 100k per day yesterday for the first time.
this is getting worse, folks. much worse. I am moving my low estimate up 10k to 135k. high estimate remains at 150k for now, but I am feeling too optimistic at the moment.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on May 21, 2020 0:47:41 GMT -5
edit: the US is now in the top 12 for cases/M and deaths/M. we won't stop there, because of the loosening.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on May 21, 2020 6:32:11 GMT -5
We apparently have decided that 1k dead a day is acceptable
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on May 21, 2020 8:29:05 GMT -5
We apparently have decided that 1k dead a day is acceptable First it was (and still is), 'Thank you school children for sacrificing your lives to protect our Second Amendment rights.' We can now add to that, 'Thank you 1K dead a day for your sacrifice in protecting trump's economy.'
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on May 21, 2020 8:39:18 GMT -5
We apparently have decided that 1k dead a day is acceptable First it was (and still is), 'Thank you school children for sacrificing your lives to protect our Second Amendment rights.' We can now add to that, 'Thank you 1K dead a day for your sacrifice in protecting trump's economy.' It is "Thank you, those who were on your last legs, for dying so we can save Trump's economy." That is the message now right, the deaths do not matter because they were all on their way out.
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oped
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Post by oped on May 21, 2020 9:01:25 GMT -5
Or black, or brown, or otherwise lowly workers.
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on May 21, 2020 9:49:43 GMT -5
We apparently have decided that 1k dead a day is acceptable I would have to agree with this. And it's not just the "government" or "politicians". I was on a zoom group with friends in other parts of the US and we touched on what the states were doing and the infection rate/death rate... and they didn't seem too concerned - they didn't know anyone in the hospital with Covid19 or anyone who had died from it and their area had few deaths. I mentioned the 90K currently dead - and I got the "well, the flu kills 60K plus" to which I replied not in 3 months. To which I got looks that said: "you drank the cool aid and don't know what you're talking about". Someone did bring up that the daily death count in their more populated area had remained constant each day for several weeks. but everyone else just talked about their ability to go to restaurants. The daily death count came back up (as not being so bad) and I mentioned the 1000 a day deaths in the US with little sign of slowing or stopping and again got the hairy eyeball. So, I finished with "yeah, I guess that's ok - it's not that many people.". I've heard very similiar 'rationalizations' from other groups of people along the lines of "the flu kills people every year." "cigarettes kill people every year", "old people are gonna die anyway" all with the implied "why worry about Covid 19 deaths? " with the added: "I don't know anyone who died from the flu and only the 'loser old people in my life' are dying from cigarettes - and they have been sickly for years - it's their own fault, they were stupid". These things usually end with "I'm socially distancing, disinfecting, wearing a mask when I have to. I'm "smart" I won't get Covid19 (or I've already had it I was sick in Jan/Feb)." I think it's mostly just 'exhaustion' with the news about Covid19 and the lack of a 'focal' point for what we are all doing/what's being done. I think we're (America) is lucky the whole world is struggling with Covid19. Cause this would be a great time for another country to start a war - we're not particularly "united". We'd be easier to attack OR wouldn't meddle in a war that didn't directly effect us. Cause we don't seem to be very united on how to handle Covid-19. - and that effects every American. FWIW: all the people I'm talking about above are older, white, and either retired comfortably or still working. I don't think anyone in their close circle of family/friends is not white.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on May 21, 2020 10:18:52 GMT -5
I meant the global "we" as you are pointing out. Unfortunately, until their area is really dealing with this, they do not care. The lack of ability to understand how little control one has in preventing infection, unless you are basically a hermit is unreal. Every year, when people decline a flu vaccine, the answer is frequently, " I never got it before". SMH. Unless and until they are personally affected, people no longer care. One reason this will be a drawn out disaster, akin to a flood.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on May 28, 2020 18:33:51 GMT -5
this was the worst day yet at WorldOMeter. 115k new cases worldwide.
at this rate, we will break 6M tomorrow.
Brazil is the new hotspot. they lead the world in cases and deaths today.
hang on, folks. it is going to be a bumpy ride.
PS- we still have no Brazil travel ban. not that it matters. the virus is already so widespread that the net impact of such bans is dubious.
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Post by djAdvocate on May 30, 2020 19:19:04 GMT -5
30k new cases in Brazil today. check the date of my last post. also, it took us 3 weeks to have 2M new cases worldwide. also not good.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on May 30, 2020 19:46:53 GMT -5
And only a few percent have been infected. Long way to go
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Post by The Walk of the Penguin Mich on May 30, 2020 19:54:53 GMT -5
I just read an alarming statistic this morning.....
Nearly 20% of patients with COVID who go into surgery die. There was no note if the surgery was elective or not, but the scuttlebutt I have been getting on my hip groups is that you are tested 3 ways from Sunday before surgery.
The other scary statistic I that I saw was if you have or HAD cancer, you are more likely to die from COVID. Have cancer makes sense as you are still likely immunosuppressed, had cancer presumes you have gone through treatment and your immune system is going back to normal.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on May 31, 2020 14:06:33 GMT -5
I think it is really odd that we still don't seem to understand that the more people we have IN THIS WORLD that are infected, the worse it gets here in the US.
we are now averaging 125k new cases a day worldwide.
you complete the syllogism.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on May 31, 2020 14:51:55 GMT -5
You mean America first is not a winning strategy?
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 13, 2020 0:46:48 GMT -5
the US reported 27k new cases today, the highest in THREE WEEKS.
California had a record number of cases today, and is leading the nation by a country mile. I am worried that we are losing control of the virus here, and at the worst possible time (when we are relaxing social distancing).
it is POSSIBLE that the distortion is due to testing, but I know of no way to correlate the data to testing.
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jun 13, 2020 7:22:02 GMT -5
the US reported 27k new cases today, the highest in THREE WEEKS. California had a record number of cases today, and is leading the nation by a country mile. I am worried that we are losing control of the virus here, and at the worst possible time (when we are relaxing social distancing). it is POSSIBLE that the distortion is due to testing, but I know of no way to correlate the data to testing. The virus won. DJ. Sad but true. It won because, 1 a lack of leadership at the top. Trump hasn’t even uttered the word in weeks(except on his website) 2 too many governors are full speed ahead with reopening, regardless of the numbers. Some even lying about then( I’m looking at you DeSantis) 3 we have lost the will to sacrifice any longer, which has been exacerbated by trumps disinterest Thousands will die needlessly as a result. IMHE models 150k dead by Labor Day 2 additional points 1 I wonder if New Zealand has the will to remain cut off from the world, now that they have 0 cases. Will be a disaster for their tourist industry 2 we are going for herd immunity. Not that we are doing it purposely Conservatives have made this about. Lives vs the economy. It was never either or. It was always both/neither. We won’t see pre-covid economy until this is contained/controlled
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Post by dondub on Jun 13, 2020 11:16:28 GMT -5
the US reported 27k new cases today, the highest in THREE WEEKS. California had a record number of cases today, and is leading the nation by a country mile. I am worried that we are losing control of the virus here, and at the worst possible time (when we are relaxing social distancing). it is POSSIBLE that the distortion is due to testing, but I know of no way to correlate the data to testing. The virus won. DJ. Sad but true. It won because, 1 a lack of leadership at the top. Trump hasn’t even uttered the word in weeks(except on his website) 2 too many governors are full speed ahead with reopening, regardless of the numbers. Some even lying about then( I’m looking at you SeSantis) 3 we have lost the will to sacrifice any longer, which has been exacerbated by trumps disinterest Thousands will did needlessly as a result. IMHE models 150k dead by Labor Day 2 additional points 1 I wonder if New Zealand has the will to remain cut off from the world, now that they have 0 cases. Will be a disaster for their tourist industry 2 we are going for herd immunity. Not that we are doing it purposely Conservatives have made this about. Lives vs the economy. It was never either or. It was always both/neither. We won’t see pre-covid economy until this is contained/controlled 170,000+ by Labor Day. I use that world-o-meter in the top thread spot. 117,000 now. At 800-1000/day yikes!
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pulmonarymd
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Post by pulmonarymd on Jun 13, 2020 11:47:29 GMT -5
The virus won. DJ. Sad but true. It won because, 1 a lack of leadership at the top. Trump hasn’t even uttered the word in weeks(except on his website) 2 too many governors are full speed ahead with reopening, regardless of the numbers. Some even lying about then( I’m looking at you SeSantis) 3 we have lost the will to sacrifice any longer, which has been exacerbated by trumps disinterest Thousands will did needlessly as a result. IMHE models 150k dead by Labor Day 2 additional points 1 I wonder if New Zealand has the will to remain cut off from the world, now that they have 0 cases. Will be a disaster for their tourist industry 2 we are going for herd immunity. Not that we are doing it purposely Conservatives have made this about. Lives vs the economy. It was never either or. It was always both/neither. We won’t see pre-covid economy until this is contained/controlled 170,000+ by Labor Day. I use that world-o-meter in the top thread spot. 117,000 now. At 800-1000/day yikes! It's all old people. No big deal
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teen persuasion
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Post by teen persuasion on Jun 14, 2020 15:28:26 GMT -5
the US reported 27k new cases today, the highest in THREE WEEKS. California had a record number of cases today, and is leading the nation by a country mile. I am worried that we are losing control of the virus here, and at the worst possible time (when we are relaxing social distancing).it is POSSIBLE that the distortion is due to testing, but I know of no way to correlate the data to testing. This is backwards to me. You look at the data when controlling the relaxation of social distancing rules. Cases go up, rules retighten. As to distortion due to testing, locally they look at the percentage positive, and have to test a percentage of the population regularly. The big metro county south of me (biggest outbreak outside of NYC region) is currently getting 1.something% positive. They are also shifting to looking at hospitalization stats. link
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Gardening Grandma
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Post by Gardening Grandma on Jun 14, 2020 16:17:11 GMT -5
170,000+ by Labor Day. I use that world-o-meter in the top thread spot. 117,000 now. At 800-1000/day yikes! It's all old people. No big deal When I see the photos of people crowding, unmasked at beaches and restaurants, that is the message I see. "Old people don't matter".
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Jun 14, 2020 17:47:53 GMT -5
It's all old people. No big deal When I see the photos of people crowding, unmasked at beaches and restaurants, that is the message I see. "Old people don't matter". If I feel like giving them benefit of the doubt, I hope they just think their lives don't touch and old people. Of course, everyone life does - grocery store, etc. But it isn't direct enough to sink in to young dummies.
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