America Is Teetering On The Brink

[justme]

Feb 5, 2020 9:03:56 GMT -5 OldCoyote said:

The market will determine the wages, No jobs, low pay, lots of jobs, shortage of qualified people, high wages!!

Raising MW only results in cost inflation, which means higher MW, which means more inflation.

We only need to look at the fast food industry, what were you paying for a Big Mac 5-10, years ago??

What are you paying today?  A bunch more!

1) Minimum wage is not the only factor when it comes to inflation. In fact most studies have determined it has very little do with minimum wage. (I don't have time to thoroughly research it but a quick glance shows that the min wage in the 70s didn't drastically increase until after inflation was drastically increasing)

2) Inflation, at certain levels, is a good thing. An economy needs inflation to a certain point. Having no or negative inflation is not a good thing. 

[Bob Ross]

Feb 5, 2020 11:18:38 GMT -5 NastyWoman said:

Feb 4, 2020 21:26:15 GMT -5 Bob Ross said:

Overriding the two term limit would mean repealing the 22nd amendment of the Constitution, which would require a proposal by 2/3 of either the House, Senate or a convention of states, and then would need to be ratified by 3/4 of all state legislatures.

So in a nutshell, I think that's still pretty far outside the reach of Trump.

(but I did look this up in the past due to the same concerns).

Considering that trump carried 60% of the states in 2016 it may not be as inconceivable as you think in a country that, incorrectly, prides itself on representative government → there is no one person, one vote!

They voted for him in as President for one term.  They did not vote him in as President for life.  He will never have the percentages any way you cut it.  And such a vote would not just be Trump for life, but anyone in the future for life.

[billisonboard]

Feb 5, 2020 11:24:45 GMT -5 Ryan said:

... I literally can't think of a single person that I knew growing up that I would say has it worse off than their parents. ...

Feb 5, 2020 12:49:59 GMT -5 Ryan said:

Feb 5, 2020 11:39:36 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

I think your observation might be skewed a bit. I can't say for sure. But consider: who did you know growing up that you currently know their financial situation? Are they a good representation of the population as a whole?

I don't know their financial situation, but I also didn't know the financial situation of my parents and their peers growing up. ...

skewed isn't the right term.

[djAdvocate]

Feb 5, 2020 11:24:45 GMT -5 Ryan said:

I would consider myself a middle classer whose political views are probably moderate.  Just like the right in 2009, the left is getting a little dramatic here.  

I am only going off what I see, it seems like the middle class is better off nowadays than when I grew up.  I literally can't think of a single person that I knew growing up that I would say has it worse off than their parents.  I'm 42, so maybe it's worse for people just getting out of school, who knows.  

that is not what the statistics say.  but bully for you, I guess.

[djAdvocate]

Feb 5, 2020 13:02:59 GMT -5 justme said:

Feb 5, 2020 9:03:56 GMT -5 OldCoyote said:

The market will determine the wages, No jobs, low pay, lots of jobs, shortage of qualified people, high wages!!

Raising MW only results in cost inflation, which means higher MW, which means more inflation.

We only need to look at the fast food industry, what were you paying for a Big Mac 5-10, years ago??

What are you paying today?  A bunch more!

to oc:

1) no, the federal government will determine minimum wages.  it has done so since the 30's.

2) actually the inflationary impacts of increasing FMW are well documented, and small.  the reason is that very few industries actually employ at FMW (mostly hospitality and foodservice), and since these sectors are a fairly small portion of the economy, it is more likely that they would adversely impact those sectors by reducing consumption of those things than it would contribute to inflation.  if you don't agree, you are probably speculating- because I have researched it. have you?

3) the fast food industry has indeed raised prices. it is more impacted than any other industry by these changes.  if FMW doubles, then in SOME PLACES, the cost of making a big mac will rise a SHOCKING 25%. that means that you might have to pay a WHOLE DOLLAR more for that filthy piece of cow. you could save that dollar by staying home and cooking it yourself once in a while, which is what most people will probably do.

so, yeah, this claim is repeated all the time and it is complete crap, really.

[Ryan]

Feb 5, 2020 15:28:05 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Feb 5, 2020 11:24:45 GMT -5 Ryan said:

I would consider myself a middle classer whose political views are probably moderate.  Just like the right in 2009, the left is getting a little dramatic here.  

I am only going off what I see, it seems like the middle class is better off nowadays than when I grew up.  I literally can't think of a single person that I knew growing up that I would say has it worse off than their parents.  I'm 42, so maybe it's worse for people just getting out of school, who knows.  

that is not what the statistics say.  but bully for you, I guess.

I trust my own eyes vs. what biased statistics point to.  

Ask a millennial what the biggest financial problem they face is and almost all of them will say it's student debt.  I saw an article awhile back that said college tuition is 30x expensive than it was in the 70's.  

I don't want to hear anything from politicians until they tackle this problem.  It's the root of all the woes of the aspiring middle class.

[giramomma]

Feb 5, 2020 16:39:43 GMT -5 Ryan said:

Feb 5, 2020 15:28:05 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

that is not what the statistics say.  but bully for you, I guess.

I trust my own eyes vs. what biased statistics point to.  

Ask a millennial what the biggest financial problem they face is and almost all of them will say it's student debt.  I saw an article awhile back that said college tuition is 30x expensive than it was in the 70's.  

I don't want to hear anything from politicians until they tackle this problem.  It's the root of all the woes of the aspiring middle class.

But the average student debt now is 30k.

Are you arguing that 30K is so insurmountable, so draining, and so paralyzing that it's pushing folks from the middle class downwards?

[djAdvocate]

Feb 5, 2020 16:39:43 GMT -5 Ryan said:

Feb 5, 2020 15:28:05 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

that is not what the statistics say.  but bully for you, I guess.

I trust my own eyes vs. what biased statistics point to.  

I am exactly the opposite. I don't trust my own experiences at all any more.

I could spend all day talking about that last remark, but it would get REAL personal

REAL fast, and I have no intention of doing that.

[djAdvocate]

Feb 5, 2020 16:49:58 GMT -5 giramomma said:

Feb 5, 2020 16:39:43 GMT -5 Ryan said:

I trust my own eyes vs. what biased statistics point to.  

Ask a millennial what the biggest financial problem they face is and almost all of them will say it's student debt.  I saw an article awhile back that said college tuition is 30x expensive than it was in the 70's.  

I don't want to hear anything from politicians until they tackle this problem.  It's the root of all the woes of the aspiring middle class.

But the average student debt now is 30k.

Are you arguing that 30K is so insurmountable, so draining, and so paralyzing that it's pushing folks from the middle class downwards?

probably not.  but are you aware that upward mobility in the US ranks THIRD TO LAST in developed nations?  are you aware that average income among white men is less now than it was in 1973?

you want more proof?  look at the percent that can afford the median home price, the percent that can afford to go to college without incurring massive debt, and the percent that have enough earnings left over to afford private healthcare (without the benefit of an employer).

America reached it's peak in about 1973, economically.  it has been getting harder every year since then.  "paralyzing" might not be here yet, but it is very much on it's way, without radical reform.

we are not going to get it.  quite the opposite, I am betting.

[hoops902]

I don't think it's a great idea to trust personal experiences, because frankly that's how everyone goes off the rails (I mean I think it's fine at an individual level, but not to extrapolate out to a much larger population).  It's also not really a great idea to trust statistics, because you can pretty much make any factual claim based on making the statistics say what you want.  The best bet one has is to understand statistics and methodology to such a degree that they can study raw data, make their own interpretations, etc...most won't have the time, knowledge, or desire to do so.  So then we get to the next-best option of finding someone/some group you trust, and trusting what they tell you and presuming some honesty/unbiased reporting...and unbiased reporting is seldom the case.  And that's how we end up with half the country trusting Democrats, and half the country trusting Republicans, and both of them putting out statistics that stand in direct opposition to one another (and sometimes in direct opposition to their own statistics depending on what they're trying to represent at a given time).  

[djAdvocate]

Feb 5, 2020 17:06:17 GMT -5 hoops902 said:

I don't think it's a great idea to trust personal experiences, because frankly that's how everyone goes off the rails (I mean I think it's fine at an individual level, but not to extrapolate out to a much larger population).  It's also not really a great idea to trust statistics, because you can pretty much make any factual claim based on making the statistics say what you want.  The best bet one has is to understand statistics and methodology to such a degree that they can study raw data, make their own interpretations, etc...most won't have the time, knowledge, or desire to do so.  So then we get to the next-best option of finding someone/some group you trust, and trusting what they tell you and presuming some honesty/unbiased reporting...and unbiased reporting is seldom the case.  And that's how we end up with half the country trusting Democrats, and half the country trusting Republicans, and both of them putting out statistics that stand in direct opposition to one another (and sometimes in direct opposition to their own statistics depending on what they're trying to represent at a given time).  

I think we ended up here because people lie.

they don't use statistics, at all. they just fabricate stuff. they make it up.

there is no proof whatsoever for half the stuff that Trump says. he is a uniquely bold liar, but he is not alone.

[djAdvocate]

Feb 5, 2020 17:28:09 GMT -5 hoops902 said:

Feb 5, 2020 17:17:04 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

I think we ended up here because people lie.

they don't use statistics, at all. they just fabricate stuff. they make it up.

there is no proof whatsoever for half the stuff that Trump says. he is a uniquely bold liar, but he is not alone.

If you're talking specifically about Trump, I agree, I don't think he's gone through the trouble to generate statistics that support him.  He doesn't really NEED to though (if people are going to believe what you say regardless, do you need to bother with the extra step of trying to show your falsified work?).  

But Trump, and Presidents in general, are outliers in this kind of thing.  There aren't a lot of people in the world that can say something and have HUGE portions of people take it as fact because of who said it.  They are, in essence, creating the "factual claim" and then people below them come along to generate the statistics.  He's not being fooled by statistics into saying things, he's saying things and then the statistics are being generated based on what he's said.

I agree with everything you said here, except I don't think he bothers with the stats. 

HOWEVER, what I have noticed is that a FEW people that don't have as much reach as Trump can generate a LOT of wrong opinion. 

are you aware of the PizzaGate story?  that thing was utterly fringe and cult, but I think practically everyone knows about it, now.  why?  because a few people blogged it, and a LOT MORE repeated the post.

there are similar things that Trump himself has picked up on- in fact MOST of what he "comes up with" he doesn't generate himself.  he simply amplifies fringe bullshit to the masses.

it is what makes him especially dangerous.

[hoops902]

Feb 5, 2020 17:17:04 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Feb 5, 2020 17:06:17 GMT -5 hoops902 said:

I don't think it's a great idea to trust personal experiences, because frankly that's how everyone goes off the rails (I mean I think it's fine at an individual level, but not to extrapolate out to a much larger population).  It's also not really a great idea to trust statistics, because you can pretty much make any factual claim based on making the statistics say what you want.  The best bet one has is to understand statistics and methodology to such a degree that they can study raw data, make their own interpretations, etc...most won't have the time, knowledge, or desire to do so.  So then we get to the next-best option of finding someone/some group you trust, and trusting what they tell you and presuming some honesty/unbiased reporting...and unbiased reporting is seldom the case.  And that's how we end up with half the country trusting Democrats, and half the country trusting Republicans, and both of them putting out statistics that stand in direct opposition to one another (and sometimes in direct opposition to their own statistics depending on what they're trying to represent at a given time).  

I think we ended up here because people lie.

they don't use statistics, at all. they just fabricate stuff. they make it up.

there is no proof whatsoever for half the stuff that Trump says. he is a uniquely bold liar, but he is not alone.

If you're talking about Trump specifically, absolutely, he doesn't need to make up statistics because 1. People will believe anything he says in many cases.  2.  He has people who can take his claims/lies and just generate the statistics after-the-fact.  That's what people who use statistics poorly do, they pick an outcome, then generate the statistics to say what they wanted it to say.  Unlike academics who typically have an idea in mind then generate the statistics in their own way, THEN claim to have gotten there in an unbiased manner...it's just a lot more clear that Trump is publicly announcing his conclusion, and then folks are heading to work trying to find a way to show the numbers after the fact.  

Trump (and Presidents in general) are in a unique position in this way though, they have such a high position they can say things and MANY people will believe it because of who said it.  If people will believe what you say, there's some reasonableness in not bothering to falsify the "proof" after the fact.  You would hope people in these positions WOULD be looking at facts from an unbiased source, and then generating claims...but that's DEFINITELY not happening with Trump, and largely it doesn't happen for politicians in general...there's always a "spin" that just happens to be supported by some numbers somewhere.

[OldCoyote]

Feb 5, 2020 13:02:59 GMT -5 justme said:

Feb 5, 2020 9:03:56 GMT -5 OldCoyote said:

The market will determine the wages, No jobs, low pay, lots of jobs, shortage of qualified people, high wages!!

Raising MW only results in cost inflation, which means higher MW, which means more inflation.

We only need to look at the fast food industry, what were you paying for a Big Mac 5-10, years ago??

What are you paying today?  A bunch more!

1) Minimum wage is not the only factor when it comes to inflation. In fact most studies have determined it has very little do with minimum wage. (I don't have time to thoroughly research it but a quick glance shows that the min wage in the 70s didn't drastically increase until after inflation was drastically increasing)

2) Inflation, at certain levels, is a good thing. An economy needs inflation to a certain point. Having no or negative inflation is not a good thing. 

Lunch today, 1 Qtr cheese meal $8.69

1 M Coke

Subtotal                                  8.69

tax                                         0.55

Eat in total                              9.24

I remember being in Alaska more than a couple of years back, horrified that the same meal was $5.50 

[billisonboard]

Feb 5, 2020 17:04:35 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

... America reached it's peak in about 1973, economically. ...

1973–1974 oil embargo

But the embargo also meant that a section of the Non-Aligned Movement saw power as a source of hope for their developing countries. The Algerian president Houari Boumédiène expressed this hope in a speech at the UN's 6th Special Session in April 1974:

"The OPEC action is really the first illustration and at the same time the most concrete and most spectacular illustration of the importance of raw material prices for our countries, the vital need for the producing countries to operate the levers of price control, and lastly, the great possibilities of a union of raw material producing countries. This action should be viewed by the developing countries as an example and a source of hope."

[happyhoix]

Feb 5, 2020 16:39:43 GMT -5 Ryan said:

Feb 5, 2020 15:28:05 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

that is not what the statistics say.  but bully for you, I guess.

I trust my own eyes vs. what biased statistics point to.  

Ask a millennial what the biggest financial problem they face is and almost all of them will say it's student debt.  I saw an article awhile back that said college tuition is 30x expensive than it was in the 70's.  

I don't want to hear anything from politicians until they tackle this problem.  It's the root of all the woes of the aspiring middle class.

Not just student debt. When I grew up my dad supported four kids, himself and his wife on one middle management income. I'm a middle manager and it took me and my DH working full time to support ourselves and our one kid in similar lifestyle. SAHP are becoming as rare as hen's teeth.

In my dad's generation, most manufacturing jobs had pensions. Dad paid about 100 bucks to the dr who delivered me. A year of out of state tuition at my state college cost 750 bucks. 

Many things are a whole lot more expensive now, even accounting for inflation, while salaries have stagnated, when accounting for inflation. 

Unless you're in the 10%. 

[thyme4change]

Feb 5, 2020 17:06:17 GMT -5 hoops902 said:

I don't think it's a great idea to trust personal experiences, because frankly that's how everyone goes off the rails (I mean I think it's fine at an individual level, but not to extrapolate out to a much larger population).  ).  

That is why I hate the State of the Union. They bring in one person, witha specific problem and then propose how to fix it. I know it is supposed to be an illustration of a common problem, but I'm just over it.

[thyme4change]

Feb 5, 2020 19:08:57 GMT -5 happyhoix said:

Feb 5, 2020 16:39:43 GMT -5 Ryan said:

I trust my own eyes vs. what biased statistics point to.  

Ask a millennial what the biggest financial problem they face is and almost all of them will say it's student debt.  I saw an article awhile back that said college tuition is 30x expensive than it was in the 70's.  

I don't want to hear anything from politicians until they tackle this problem.  It's the root of all the woes of the aspiring middle class.

Not just student debt. When I grew up my dad supported four kids, himself and his wife on one middle management income. I'm a middle manager and it took me and my DH working full time to support ourselves and our one kid in similar lifestyle. SAHP are becoming as rare as hen's teeth.

In my dad's generation, most manufacturing jobs had pensions. Dad paid about 100 bucks to the dr who delivered me. A year of out of state tuition at my state college cost 750 bucks. 

Many things are a whole lot more expensive now, even accounting for inflation, while salaries have stagnated, when accounting for inflation. 

Unless you're in the 10%. 

When you say similar lifestyle, I'm not sure what decades you are comparing, but....

The size of the average house has increased.
The rate (and distance) of travel has increased.
The average number of cars per household has increased.
The average numbers of TVs per household has increased. Not to mention the amount of people who have cable, internet and streaming services.
The number of computers per household has grown immeasurably since the 70s.
The average number of items of clothing a person owns has increased.
The number of times per month a family eats out has increased.

How much of our difficulties are due to lifestyle creep?

I'm with you that corporations have let us down, but we should be somewhat careful when we try to compare disparate lives.

[oped]

How many jobs and how much institutional wealth is due to lifestyle creep?  

[thyme4change]

Feb 5, 2020 21:56:33 GMT -5 oped said:

How many jobs and how much institutional wealth is due to lifestyle creep?  

A LOT!

[dondub]

Feb 5, 2020 18:37:40 GMT -5 OldCoyote said:

Feb 5, 2020 13:02:59 GMT -5 justme said:

1) Minimum wage is not the only factor when it comes to inflation. In fact most studies have determined it has very little do with minimum wage. (I don't have time to thoroughly research it but a quick glance shows that the min wage in the 70s didn't drastically increase until after inflation was drastically increasing)

2) Inflation, at certain levels, is a good thing. An economy needs inflation to a certain point. Having no or negative inflation is not a good thing. 

Lunch today, 1 Qtr cheese meal $8.69

1 M Coke

Subtotal                                  8.69

tax                                         0.55

Eat in total                              9.24

I remember being in Alaska more than a couple of years back, horrified that the same meal was $5.50 

 Real food is way cheaper than that crap.

[hoops902]

Feb 5, 2020 18:37:40 GMT -5 OldCoyote said:

Feb 5, 2020 13:02:59 GMT -5 justme said:

1) Minimum wage is not the only factor when it comes to inflation. In fact most studies have determined it has very little do with minimum wage. (I don't have time to thoroughly research it but a quick glance shows that the min wage in the 70s didn't drastically increase until after inflation was drastically increasing)

2) Inflation, at certain levels, is a good thing. An economy needs inflation to a certain point. Having no or negative inflation is not a good thing. 

Lunch today, 1 Qtr cheese meal $8.69

1 M Coke

Subtotal                                  8.69

tax                                         0.55

Eat in total                              9.24

I remember being in Alaska more than a couple of years back, horrified that the same meal was $5.50 

Either you live in a really expensive area, or the cashier pocketed the extra $3 they charged you above what a Quarter Pounder with cheese meal costs.  


www.fastfoodmenuprices.com/mcdonalds-prices/


www.menuwithprice.com/menu/mcdonalds/

[Tennesseer]

Something's wrong with oldcoyote's meal price.

[NastyWoman]

Feb 6, 2020 15:43:11 GMT -5 hoops902 said:

Feb 5, 2020 18:37:40 GMT -5 OldCoyote said:

Lunch today, 1 Qtr cheese meal $8.69

1 M Coke

Subtotal                                  8.69

tax                                         0.55

Eat in total                              9.24

I remember being in Alaska more than a couple of years back, horrified that the same meal was $5.50 

Either you live in a really expensive area, or the cashier pocketed the extra $3 they charged you above what a Quarter Pounder with cheese meal costs.  


www.fastfoodmenuprices.com/mcdonalds-prices/


www.menuwithprice.com/menu/mcdonalds/

Nope, that ain't gonna do it either. I never go to McDs since I don't care for their food, so I checked online what that meal cost around here - one of the most expensive areas in the country to live - and the price for that meal is $5.79. Only $0.29 more than you claim to have paid years ago in Alaska.  I would check my receipt and my change if I were you because something is rotten wherever you buy your 1 Qtr cheese meals...

[hoops902]

Feb 6, 2020 16:55:07 GMT -5 NastyWoman said:

Feb 6, 2020 15:43:11 GMT -5 hoops902 said:

Either you live in a really expensive area, or the cashier pocketed the extra $3 they charged you above what a Quarter Pounder with cheese meal costs.  


www.fastfoodmenuprices.com/mcdonalds-prices/


www.menuwithprice.com/menu/mcdonalds/

Nope, that ain't gonna do it either. I never go to McDs since I don't care for their food, so I checked online what that meal cost around here - one of the most expensive areas in the country to live - and the price for that meal is $5.79. Only $0.29 more than you claim to have paid years ago in Alaska.  I would check my receipt and my change if I were you because something is rotten wherever you buy your 1 Qtr cheese meals...

Is it accurate though?  I'm pretty sure they're not ALL accurate, since the Times Square McDonald's says it's the same price as it says for my small town.  I'm assuming they just use the same price for everyone because they don't bother looking up everyone's pricing (unless you used the McDonald's site directly but I couldn't find pricing there).

[NastyWoman]

Feb 6, 2020 17:04:26 GMT -5 hoops902 said:

Feb 6, 2020 16:55:07 GMT -5 NastyWoman said:

Nope, that ain't gonna do it either. I never go to McDs since I don't care for their food, so I checked online what that meal cost around here - one of the most expensive areas in the country to live - and the price for that meal is $5.79. Only $0.29 more than you claim to have paid years ago in Alaska.  I would check my receipt and my change if I were you because something is rotten wherever you buy your 1 Qtr cheese meals...

Is it accurate though?  I'm pretty sure they're not ALL accurate, since the Times Square McDonald's says it's the same price as it says for my small town.  I'm assuming they just use the same price for everyone because they don't bother looking up everyone's pricing (unless you used the McDonald's site directly but I couldn't find pricing there).

I looked at the price list for the McD just 2 blocks from my home

[hoops902]

Feb 6, 2020 17:14:44 GMT -5 NastyWoman said:

Feb 6, 2020 17:04:26 GMT -5 hoops902 said:

Is it accurate though?  I'm pretty sure they're not ALL accurate, since the Times Square McDonald's says it's the same price as it says for my small town.  I'm assuming they just use the same price for everyone because they don't bother looking up everyone's pricing (unless you used the McDonald's site directly but I couldn't find pricing there).

I looked at the price list for the McD just 2 blocks from my home

Yes, I was pointing out that not everything "online" is accurate, unless it's from McDonald's directly (there are lots of sites like the ones I listed above that give pricing that seems to have picked a standard price and then says it's the price under every McDonald's in the country...and maybe McDonald's is the same price everywhere now, I don't know). 

I looked at the price list online for the McD's in Times Square, and it listed the same pricing as my local one does...I'm just guessing that's not accurate, but I might be wrong.

[djAdvocate]

Feb 6, 2020 15:43:11 GMT -5 hoops902 said:

Feb 5, 2020 18:37:40 GMT -5 OldCoyote said:

Lunch today, 1 Qtr cheese meal $8.69

1 M Coke

Subtotal                                  8.69

tax                                         0.55

Eat in total                              9.24

I remember being in Alaska more than a couple of years back, horrified that the same meal was $5.50 

Either you live in a really expensive area, or the cashier pocketed the extra $3 they charged you above what a Quarter Pounder with cheese meal costs.  


www.fastfoodmenuprices.com/mcdonalds-prices/


www.menuwithprice.com/menu/mcdonalds/

bought the same meal at In-N-Out for $7.18 last night.

I agree that something is wrong with OC's McD's.

[dondub]

 He ordered the Trump Special McCheese. Anything Trump just costs more.

[thyme4change]

OC is in my area, I might hit a McD's tonight, just to see if his numbers are accurate. Although, I don't eat McDonald's anymore, so, maybe I will just walk in and look? That seems like a lot of work.