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Post by Value Buy on Nov 27, 2019 9:23:29 GMT -5
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Nov 27, 2019 9:58:54 GMT -5
I glanced that article earlier. It also mentions in the small print that they are talking about 2%. What the article does not go into is the percentage of minorities that trump has alienated, and how that compares to this micro demographic. It does not explore the never trumpers among Republicans. My point being, it is a microstudy, which has to be looked at in context. I am not suggesting 2020 will be easy for the Dems- far from it- but I also do not see the earth shattering revelation here. Did you see the portion discussing how the off year elections are more about electing local and Congressional people who promise to do a lot for the community, and then on the Presidential cycle they vote a little differently? As far as minorities voting for Trump, there is some movement towards him. Minorities like working just like white people do. In Presidential elections people vote their pocket book. Independents are tired of the never trump show in D.C. and will vote accordingly. Bloomberg has even said the democratic party candidates cannot beat Trump and that is why he is running.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 27, 2019 10:12:19 GMT -5
... Bloomberg has even said the democratic party candidates cannot beat Trump and that is why he is running. Declaring that "(D)emocratic (P)arty candidates cannot beat Trump" is a wholly self serving statement and, as such, not worth much.
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Nov 27, 2019 10:44:42 GMT -5
OK Bills, Which Democratic candidate do you think can beat Trump in the general presidential election? I'm asking for an honest opinion, for the record, at this point I don't see any one of the Democratic s beating Trump. In my most humble opinion.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 27, 2019 11:30:07 GMT -5
OK Bills, Which Democratic candidate do you think can beat Trump in the general presidential election? I'm asking for an honest opinion, for the record, at this point I don't see any one of the Democratic s beating Trump. In my most humble opinion.
I draw your attention to: President Trump went on a nearly 10-minute rant, falsely accusing the media of reporting that he had a "massive heart attack" and that he stayed over night at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center — neither of which were reported by any credible, mainstream news outlets. link Republican voters are going to re-nominate this person through primary votes. That seriously weakens my faith in the electorate to make an intelligent choice.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Nov 27, 2019 12:59:31 GMT -5
I glanced that article earlier. It also mentions in the small print that they are talking about 2%. What the article does not go into is the percentage of minorities that trump has alienated, and how that compares to this micro demographic. It does not explore the never trumpers among Republicans. My point being, it is a microstudy, which has to be looked at in context. I am not suggesting 2020 will be easy for the Dems- far from it- but I also do not see the earth shattering revelation here. Did you see the portion discussing how the off year elections are more about electing local and Congressional people who promise to do a lot for the community, and then on the Presidential cycle they vote a little differently? As far as minorities voting for Trump, there is some movement towards him. Minorities like working just like white people do. In Presidential elections people vote their pocket book. Independents are tired of the never trump show in D.C. and will vote accordingly. Bloomberg has even said the democratic party candidates cannot beat Trump and that is why he is running. I agree that presidential year elections are often about different things than local elections. I don't think you can extrapolate from one to the other. What I'm not sure about is how that will fall out for Trump. Still way too early, IMHO. There isn't a dem candidate yet, for one thing
I'm curious where you get your info on minority data? I haven't seen that poll.
People often do vote their pocket book, and also, with Trump running for re-election, he has to run on his record. So far, he's given a fat tax break to corporations and rich people, and he's done nothing on improving infrastructure, or providing wonderful and cheap healthcare for everyone. So I'm not sure everyone will view their pocketbooks as better off due to Trump.
As for the 'never trump show" in D.C., one might question of that's the fault of the never trumpers, or the fault of Trump himself? Imagine if Jeb Bush had won the election, do you think he would be facing a strong 'never Jeb' pushback? Would any other GOP candidate be facing that kind of pushback? If Trump lies constantly, name calls constantly and refers to opponents as 'scum' isn't he responsible for the turmoil in DC right now?
Plus you have the big unknows - what if Bolton testifies in the impeachment trial - and tells the truth. The anonymous source who claims to be in Trump's inner circle has stated he will out himself prior to the 2020 election, and that there are other admin people also mulling over whether or not they want to publicly air their concerns about the president. Or, Warren could be exposed as a Commie plant - too soon to be sure about anything.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Nov 27, 2019 13:06:43 GMT -5
I glanced that article earlier. It also mentions in the small print that they are talking about 2%. What the article does not go into is the percentage of minorities that trump has alienated, and how that compares to this micro demographic. It does not explore the never trumpers among Republicans. My point being, it is a microstudy, which has to be looked at in context. I am not suggesting 2020 will be easy for the Dems- far from it- but I also do not see the earth shattering revelation here. Did you see the portion discussing how the off year elections are more about electing local and Congressional people who promise to do a lot for the community, and then on the Presidential cycle they vote a little differently? As far as minorities voting for Trump, there is some movement towards him. Minorities like working just like white people do.In Presidential elections people vote their pocket book. Independents are tired of the never trump show in D.C. and will vote accordingly. Bloomberg has even said the democratic party candidates cannot beat Trump and that is why he is running. Article dated November 20, 2019 black American voters: Analyzing Black Support for President TrumpPresident Donald Trump recently convened a "Black Voices for Trump" conference in Atlanta. In his speech to those assembled, Trump said: "We're going to campaign for every last African-American vote in 2020. We've done more for African-Americans in three years than the broken Washington establishment has done in more than 30 years." And, according to The New York Times reporting, Trump added that "the Democratic Party already left you a long time ago … if you don't want liberal extremists to run your lives, then today we say welcome to the Republican Party." This theme echoes a message Trump delivered to black Americans during his first presidential campaign in the summer of 2016, when he declared: "At the end of four years, I guarantee you that I will get over 95% of the African-American vote. I promise you. Because I will produce." A prediction that Trump will gain 95% of the black vote is hyperbole, of course, but Trump clearly thinks he should be improving on the 8% vote among blacks he received three years ago. Based on what we see so far in terms of black ratings of the job Trump is doing as president, currently at 10%, I don't see a high probability of that happening. For one thing, there has been remarkably little variation in Trump's job approval ratings among any group. As my colleague Jeffrey Jones recently noted, "Perhaps the most notable aspect of Trump's quarterly average approval ratings is their stability," with less than six percentage points separating Trump's highest and lowest quarterly averages so far in his term in office. More remarkably, Trump's calendar-year averages in 2017, 2018 and through this month in 2019 have varied by only one point, coming in at 40%, 41% and 41%, respectively. The same stability holds true for Trump's approval rating among black Americans. Gallup averages show Trump with a 10% approval rating among blacks in 2017, 11% in 2018 and 10% so far in 2019. In short, Trump's approval rating among blacks has essentially not changed over time, despite blacks presumably having had plenty of time to observe the economic gains that Trump touts as the reason why they should be moving into his camp. Complete article here: Analyzing Black Support for President Trump
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Nov 27, 2019 13:16:23 GMT -5
An October 7, 2019 article: Poll: Black and Latino Americans think Donald Trump's actions have made life worse for people of colorNEW YORK — Large majorities of black and Latino Americans think Donald Trump’s actions as president have made things worse for people like them, and about two-thirds of Americans overall disapprove of how he’s handling race relations, according to a new poll conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. The poll provides a bleak assessment of how the nation views Trump on race issues as he runs for a second term and repeatedly boasts of his popularity among African Americans and Latinos. Trump has consistently said his economic policies have been good for African Americans and other people of color. But the poll shows few black Americans think that’s true. Just 4% say they think Trump’s actions have been good for African Americans in general, while 81% think he’s made things worse. Similar shares of black Americans think Trump has been bad for Hispanics, Muslims and women. “He speaks nothing but hate rhetoric,” said Chris Smith, 38, an African American information technology worker in Columbia, Tennessee, who considers himself independent but leans Democratic. “If the leader of this country is free to speak like that, there’s going to be people who think it’s OK to speak like that.” “He’s making people live their life in fear,” Smith said. Complete article here: Poll: Black and Latino Americans think Donald Trump's actions have made life worse for people of color
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Bob Ross
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Post by Bob Ross on Nov 27, 2019 15:33:12 GMT -5
I glanced that article earlier. It also mentions in the small print that they are talking about 2%. What the article does not go into is the percentage of minorities that trump has alienated, and how that compares to this micro demographic. It does not explore the never trumpers among Republicans. My point being, it is a microstudy, which has to be looked at in context. I am not suggesting 2020 will be easy for the Dems- far from it- but I also do not see the earth shattering revelation here. Did you see the portion discussing how the off year elections are more about electing local and Congressional people who promise to do a lot for the community, and then on the Presidential cycle they vote a little differently? As far as minorities voting for Trump, there is some movement towards him. Minorities like working just like white people do. So Juan in Topeka switched sides? I was always a bit suspect about Juan. No worries. Which Trump has very little or nothing to do with. How do you know what millions of people are "tired of"? As opposed to saying that all of his now-competitors are awesome candidates who will beat Trump hands-down so go vote for them?
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Post by weltschmerz on Nov 27, 2019 17:51:33 GMT -5
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 27, 2019 18:18:47 GMT -5
"At the end of four years, I guarantee you that I will get over 95% of the African-American vote. I promise you. Because I will produce." Well he is going to get over 95% of the female vote since it was he who finally got the Women's Suffrage Centennial Comemorative Coin minted after all these years.
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Nov 27, 2019 18:56:49 GMT -5
OK Bills, Which Democratic candidate do you think can beat Trump in the general presidential election? I'm asking for an honest opinion, for the record, at this point I don't see any one of the Democratic s beating Trump. In my most humble opinion.
I draw your attention to: President Trump went on a nearly 10-minute rant, falsely accusing the media of reporting that he had a "massive heart attack" and that he stayed over night at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center — neither of which were reported by any credible, mainstream news outlets. link Republican voters are going to re-nominate this person through primary votes. That seriously weakens my faith in the electorate to make an intelligent choice. So without actually saying it, you don't think any one that is in the running now can beat Trump!
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 27, 2019 19:12:59 GMT -5
I draw your attention to: President Trump went on a nearly 10-minute rant, falsely accusing the media of reporting that he had a "massive heart attack" and that he stayed over night at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center — neither of which were reported by any credible, mainstream news outlets. link Republican voters are going to re-nominate this person through primary votes. That seriously weakens my faith in the electorate to make an intelligent choice. So without actually saying it, you don't think any one that is in the running now can beat Trump! Almost all of a year before the election, I think all of them could beat him. I also think all of them could lose to him.
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Nov 27, 2019 19:14:47 GMT -5
I agree.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 28, 2019 14:43:47 GMT -5
OK Bills, Which Democratic candidate do you think can beat Trump in the general presidential election? I'm asking for an honest opinion, for the record, at this point I don't see any one of the Democratic s beating Trump. In my most humble opinion.
I know you weren't asking me, but "can" is a very broad term.
any of them could beat Trump. any.
just out of curiosity, which Democratic candidates do you feel could NOT beat Trump?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 28, 2019 14:46:32 GMT -5
I glanced that article earlier. It also mentions in the small print that they are talking about 2%. What the article does not go into is the percentage of minorities that trump has alienated, and how that compares to this micro demographic. It does not explore the never trumpers among Republicans. My point being, it is a microstudy, which has to be looked at in context. I am not suggesting 2020 will be easy for the Dems- far from it- but I also do not see the earth shattering revelation here. moreover, in 2018, his approval was roughly the same as it is now, which is about 7% lower than it was in 2016, when he won by 70k votes in (3) swing states, none of which there is any indication he will win this time.
I don't think it is a cake walk, either, but Democrats have a significant advantage.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 28, 2019 14:48:50 GMT -5
you realize that posts 12 and 14 are contradictory, right?
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seriousthistime
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Post by seriousthistime on Nov 28, 2019 16:27:36 GMT -5
Trump will get 95% of the female vote and 95% of the African American vote, because after the election he will declare he did, and his supporters will believe him. Because it would be no more outlandish a statement of "fact" than his other whoppers. and they believe those whoppers.
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dezii
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Post by dezii on Nov 28, 2019 16:39:43 GMT -5
OK Bills, Which Democratic candidate do you think can beat Trump in the general presidential election? I'm asking for an honest opinion, for the record, at this point I don't see any one of the Democratic s beating Trump. In my most humble opinion.
For me it's Biden...I believe he will be able to get down and dirty with him if that is needed..hopefully America will want to get back to some normancy again rather then the bad soap opera we have been on for a bit over three years now.. If started earlier , possible Bloomberg too....notice how so many are seniors...Surprised there is no member of the GOP coming out to challenge Donald.
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Nov 28, 2019 20:31:47 GMT -5
OK Bills, Which Democratic candidate do you think can beat Trump in the general presidential election? I'm asking for an honest opinion, for the record, at this point I don't see any one of the Democratic s beating Trump. In my most humble opinion.
I know you weren't asking me, but "can" is a very broad term.
any of them could beat Trump. any.
just out of curiosity, which Democratic candidates do you feel could NOT beat Trump?
At this point there is not one that can do it.
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countrygirl2
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Post by countrygirl2 on Nov 28, 2019 20:51:08 GMT -5
Biden could have, but they are doing a smear campaign on him like they did Hillary so I don't know. We are still a year away and with his mouth and his twitter BS he could bury himself more. I guess we will just have to wait and see. It may be another deal where the dem wins the popular vote and the repub wins the electoral college.
I just hope for the sake of the country that Biden does win. We need to fix and rebuild so much trump has destroyed. If he gets in again his narcisstic ego will finish taking out the democracy we have. And with his contempt and lack of understanding of the constitution who knows what will happen.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 29, 2019 12:59:49 GMT -5
Trump will get 95% of the female vote and 95% of the African American vote, because after the election he will declare he did, and his supporters will believe him. Because it would be no more outlandish a statement of "fact" than his other whoppers. and they believe those whoppers. this possibility, which I think is very real, is becoming one of the main reasons I want the hell out of here.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 29, 2019 13:00:47 GMT -5
I know you weren't asking me, but "can" is a very broad term.
any of them could beat Trump. any.
just out of curiosity, which Democratic candidates do you feel could NOT beat Trump?
At this point there is not one that can do it. at this point there are probably 10 that can do it. you said so yourself, in post 14.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 29, 2019 13:06:41 GMT -5
Biden could have, but they are doing a smear campaign on him like they did Hillary so I don't know. We are still a year away and with his mouth and his twitter BS he could bury himself more. I guess we will just have to wait and see. It may be another deal where the dem wins the popular vote and the repub wins the electoral college. I just hope for the sake of the country that Biden does win. We need to fix and rebuild so much trump has destroyed. If he gets in again his narcisstic ego will finish taking out the democracy we have. And with his contempt and lack of understanding of the constitution who knows what will happen. I wouldn't be so sure. this nation is so divided that the 60% don't believe a word the 40% says.
the GOP thinks they have it in the bag. it is actually quite reminiscent of how Hillary ran. I doubt they recognize the irony.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Nov 29, 2019 13:48:04 GMT -5
OK Bills, Which Democratic candidate do you think can beat Trump in the general presidential election? I'm asking for an honest opinion, for the record, at this point I don't see any one of the Democratic s beating Trump. In my most humble opinion.
For me it's Biden...I believe he will be able to get down and dirty with him if that is needed..hopefully America will want to get back to some normancy again rather then the bad soap opera we have been on for a bit over three years now.. If started earlier , possible Bloomberg too....notice how so many are seniors...Surprised there is no member of the GOP coming out to challenge Donald. Just who would that be? Romney? America already told him no. There is a guy from Illinois who is running. I think he lost his re-election to Congress a few years ago to a democrat.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 29, 2019 13:58:39 GMT -5
For me it's Biden...I believe he will be able to get down and dirty with him if that is needed..hopefully America will want to get back to some normancy again rather then the bad soap opera we have been on for a bit over three years now.. If started earlier , possible Bloomberg too....notice how so many are seniors...Surprised there is no member of the GOP coming out to challenge Donald. Just who would that be? Romney? America already told him no. There is a guy from Illinois who is running. I think he lost his re-election to Congress a few years ago to a democrat. I think it is unfortunate that the Republican Party is so bereft of talent that they have no one to challenge President Trump. I would like to see the GOP nominate a decent human being so that the 2020 Presidential election could be debated on ideas.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Nov 29, 2019 14:03:17 GMT -5
Just who would that be? Romney? America already told him no. There is a guy from Illinois who is running. I think he lost his re-election to Congress a few years ago to a democrat. I think it is unfortunate that the Republican Party is so bereft of talent that they have no one to challenge President Trump. I would like to see the GOP nominate a decent human being so that the 2020 Presidential election could be debated on ideas. Don't you think most viable Repubicans realize they would not defeat trump, and would also hurt their chances in 2024. Even Romney is not that stupid. In 2016 no one felt they should run against Clinton except Sanders, and he is not even a democrat. Just because it was "her turn" is not a correct reason to not have tries for the nomination, regardless of any candidate's failings.....
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 29, 2019 14:13:53 GMT -5
I think it is unfortunate that the Republican Party is so bereft of talent that they have no one to challenge President Trump. I would like to see the GOP nominate a decent human being so that the 2020 Presidential election could be debated on ideas. Don't you think most viable Repubicans realize they would not defeat trump, ... Yes, that is what I posted.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Nov 29, 2019 14:20:23 GMT -5
Don't you think most viable Repubicans realize they would not defeat trump, ... Yes, that is what I posted. Seriously, I have questioned whether I can vote for him again. Then any of the present people running open their mouths and they remind me I have to vote for Trump again. I know the democrats wil never take their foot off his throat, even if he captures a vast majority of the Electoral vote (highly unlikely) and not sure the country will emotionally survive. We are in a Civil war without actual bullets and cannon fire and could take decades for the country to recover. The fact is I cannot vote for any of the democrats, except, cough cough, maybe, and I mean slightly maybe, for Bloomberg at this point in time. That is how conflkicted I am even today.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 29, 2019 14:24:55 GMT -5
Yes, that is what I posted. Seriously, I have questioned whether I can vote for him again. Then any of the present people running open their mouths and they remind me I have to vote for Trump again. you make it sound like you only have two choices.
you don't.
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