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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 3, 2018 10:32:44 GMT -5
i am moving the House odds back to Democrats 2:1, and the Senate back to Republicans 5:2. there has been some polling drift in favor of Republicans recently. even the president is +3% on approval. the Generic Ballot is also performing well for the GOP- they have closed the gap almost 2% in the last month. at this rate, it is not going to be enough to put them over the top in the House, but it should ensure that they hold the Senate. in addition, i am no longer certain that governorships are going to go to a D majority this year. my current most likely scenario is a 50/50 split (25 for each). in other words, this has been a good stretch for Republicans in the polls.
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 3, 2018 10:37:14 GMT -5
Thanks for the update. I and most posters here probably have not really worried about Govornor races outside of their own state. This is a hidden treasure in the long run for each political party if your party wins in your individual state, and could portend a political shift in state politics for 2020.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 3, 2018 10:40:11 GMT -5
Thanks for the update. I and most posters here probably have not really worried about Govornor races outside of their own state. This is a hidden treasure in the long run for each political party if your party wins in your individual state, and could portend a political shift in state politics for 2020. 2021 is a redistricting year. the Democrats totally got blindsided by this 10 years ago.
they haven't forgotten.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 3, 2018 10:46:46 GMT -5
just so everyone is on the same page, there are THREE tossups right now: Nevada, Tennessee, and North Dakota there are two more tossups if you go ONLY by the polls: Florida, Missouri Democrats have to win ALL FIVE to control the Senate. if you assume that half the seats go to Dems and half to the GOP, then we end up where we are right now, which is the most likely scenario.
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Post by billisonboard on Oct 3, 2018 14:10:30 GMT -5
... 2020 is a redistricting year. ... FWIW, 2020 is a census year. It will be 2021 before redistricting will be done: March 2021 The Census Bureau completes delivery of redistricting counts to the states. link All 2020 elections will be based on current districts.
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Post by pooks on Oct 3, 2018 15:01:57 GMT -5
just so everyone is on the same page, there are THREE tossups right now: Nevada, Tennessee, and North Dakota there are two more tossups if you go ONLY by the polls: Florida, Missouri Democrats have to win ALL FIVE to control the Senate. if you assume that half the seats go to Dems and half to the GOP, then we end up where we are right now, which is the most likely scenario.
So do you think Arizona is a non-tossup?
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 3, 2018 22:47:26 GMT -5
just so everyone is on the same page, there are THREE tossups right now: Nevada, Tennessee, and North Dakota there are two more tossups if you go ONLY by the polls: Florida, Missouri Democrats have to win ALL FIVE to control the Senate. if you assume that half the seats go to Dems and half to the GOP, then we end up where we are right now, which is the most likely scenario.
So do you think Arizona is a non-tossup? i think it is "leaning Democrat".
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 4, 2018 7:14:51 GMT -5
This morning Fox news (yeh, I know fox news.....) announced polling showing Republican interest in actually voting this November has increased in five states with democrat Senators who were considered possibly in trouble this year. Due to the political assassination of the SC nominee Republican totals will increase in the voting. Missouri, Indiana, and Tennessee and two other states I have forgotten, are all seeing increases of Republican interest in turning out to vote. Tennessee had the largest increase. dj will probably be able to find the data and let us know if this is true. I looked but could not find it yet. On another front, it was also reported new voting applications in Texas were huge this fall, which could hurt Ted Cruz in a close race.
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Post by OldCoyote on Oct 4, 2018 8:25:36 GMT -5
In AZ I think Ducey has it wrapped up. The real undecided is the Senate race between Sinema and McSally, Here what do know,, watching the news,, we now get what seems like two minutes of news five minutes of negative political campaign ads!!! annnnnnd a month to go,, Crap!! Is there a third party running, that we can all vote for?? I don't care what the are , what their stand is,, it has to be better than what we are getting now!!
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Post by OldCoyote on Oct 4, 2018 8:30:02 GMT -5
OH Crap,,, It is Sheriff Joe,,
Maybe I need to ask the homeless guy across the street from McLane ,, I posted about before, See if he wants to run,, he maybe the better choice!!
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 4, 2018 8:55:03 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 4, 2018 11:23:39 GMT -5
This morning Fox news (yeh, I know fox news.....) announced polling showing Republican interest in actually voting this November has increased in five states with democrat Senators who were considered possibly in trouble this year. Due to the political assassination of the SC nominee Republican totals will increase in the voting. Missouri, Indiana, and Tennessee and two other states I have forgotten, are all seeing increases of Republican interest in turning out to vote. Tennessee had the largest increase. dj will probably be able to find the data and let us know if this is true. I looked but could not find it yet. On another front, it was also reported new voting applications in Texas were huge this fall, which could hurt Ted Cruz in a close race. ok, just so we have a baseline, BEFORE this whole thing went down, the Senate race was about EVEN. in other words, GOP holds the Senate 51:49.
you are claiming that this will shift the math. i can't think of how to construct a bet on that, so let's make a gentleman's bet. i say it will have ZERO impact. i am not even going to state my reasons, because i think they are obvious, and you will disagree anyway. so: VB says that the GOP will have a net gain due to the SCOTUS thing. DJ says that the GOP will have no gain due to the SCOTUS thing.
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 4, 2018 11:36:37 GMT -5
This morning Fox news (yeh, I know fox news.....) announced polling showing Republican interest in actually voting this November has increased in five states with democrat Senators who were considered possibly in trouble this year. Due to the political assassination of the SC nominee Republican totals will increase in the voting. Missouri, Indiana, and Tennessee and two other states I have forgotten, are all seeing increases of Republican interest in turning out to vote. Tennessee had the largest increase. dj will probably be able to find the data and let us know if this is true. I looked but could not find it yet. On another front, it was also reported new voting applications in Texas were huge this fall, which could hurt Ted Cruz in a close race. ok, just so we have a baseline, BEFORE this whole thing went down, the Senate race was about EVEN. in other words, GOP holds the Senate 51:49.
you are claiming that this will shift the math. i can't think of how to construct a bet on that, so let's make a gentleman's bet. i say it will have ZERO impact. i am not even going to state my reasons, because i think they are obvious, and you will disagree anyway. so: VB says that the GOP will have a net gain due to the SCOTUS thing. DJ says that the GOP will have no gain due to the SCOTUS thing.
Where did I say there would be a net gain? I would be elated if there was a net gain of two, but quite frankly one would be good, but alas, unlike democrats, republicans do not always vote enmasse to the wishes of the party leaders. Quite frankly I do not expect Flake to vote yes this weekend to confirm. This is his fxxx Trump moment he has waited for 21 months to use for maximum effect. I posted a poll. In Indiana, in the latest FOX POLL it showed Brawn losing a lead to the democrat. If that stands, the dems hold a seat, not lose one. It looks like Missouri might throw out their democrat, and in Tennessee it looks like a republican might win based on voter turnout of the right and that is a big if. I did state, if the senators in these states vote no on the nominee, it might drive Republicans to the polls and vote them down. I also stated Cruz just might be in trouble based on democratic drives to enlist new voters. 400,000 democrats signed up so far. Not sure what Texas law is to last day to apply as a registered voter, but 400,000 new, involved and enthused new voters can hurt him.
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Post by thyme4change on Oct 4, 2018 19:06:10 GMT -5
Kavanaugh will be forgotten by 70% of voters by November. We still have months of whack-a-do stuff to endure.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 4, 2018 20:22:22 GMT -5
ok, just so we have a baseline, BEFORE this whole thing went down, the Senate race was about EVEN. in other words, GOP holds the Senate 51:49.
you are claiming that this will shift the math. i can't think of how to construct a bet on that, so let's make a gentleman's bet. i say it will have ZERO impact. i am not even going to state my reasons, because i think they are obvious, and you will disagree anyway. so: VB says that the GOP will have a net gain due to the SCOTUS thing. DJ says that the GOP will have no gain due to the SCOTUS thing.
Where did I say there would be a net gain? you said that the SCOTUS vote would result in a net gain for the GOP.
what did you mean by that?
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Post by haapai on Oct 4, 2018 20:43:11 GMT -5
He's probably referring to something like this. I'm sorta dumping it on your lap to analyze. I'm in no position to evaluate it.
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Post by thyme4change on Oct 4, 2018 21:23:36 GMT -5
He's probably referring to something like this. I'm sorta dumping it on your lap to analyze. I'm in no position to evaluate it.
I have found the past year very discouraging, and like I don't really matter. Maybe I am not alone.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 5, 2018 12:58:26 GMT -5
the national polling has flattened out a bit in the last two weeks. the only two exceptions are Gallup (which does a weekly poll on Sunday Night, and has a bias of about D+5) and Rasmussen, which shows Trump at +3 (this poll has a 5-10% R bias). i suspect the regional polling will start to catch up, and indeed it has. the most interesting poll was the Berkeley one just released. i can't speak for it, because i have never seen this surveying group- and therefore regard it suspiciously. but if it is correct, then, for example, Hunter (CA50) only leads by 2%. this is WILDLY different than the last poll which showed him at +14. Sinema in that survey is +2, which i think is accurate, and it also shows the Missouri Senate race EVEN (which is also accurate, imo). so, i am disinclined to brush it off as another no-name poll (even though it is). it is probably indicative of polling to come. no odds changes- i just want to acknowledge that the polling appears to have stabilized.
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Post by happyhoix on Oct 8, 2018 7:57:43 GMT -5
This morning Fox news (yeh, I know fox news.....) announced polling showing Republican interest in actually voting this November has increased in five states with democrat Senators who were considered possibly in trouble this year. Due to the political assassination of the SC nominee Republican totals will increase in the voting. Missouri, Indiana, and Tennessee and two other states I have forgotten, are all seeing increases of Republican interest in turning out to vote. Tennessee had the largest increase. dj will probably be able to find the data and let us know if this is true. I looked but could not find it yet. On another front, it was also reported new voting applications in Texas were huge this fall, which could hurt Ted Cruz in a close race. ok, just so we have a baseline, BEFORE this whole thing went down, the Senate race was about EVEN. in other words, GOP holds the Senate 51:49.
you are claiming that this will shift the math. i can't think of how to construct a bet on that, so let's make a gentleman's bet. i say it will have ZERO impact. i am not even going to state my reasons, because i think they are obvious, and you will disagree anyway. so: VB says that the GOP will have a net gain due to the SCOTUS thing. DJ says that the GOP will have no gain due to the SCOTUS thing.
I agree with you - net zero. The midterms are still a month away, that's plenty of time for the GOP voters who got inspired by Trump's "Kavanagh is a victim' ploy to have completely forgotten about the SC.
The anti-Trump voters inspired by the SC fiasco to vote against Trump will have plenty of other reasons between now and then to continue to be angry at Trump, IMHO.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 9, 2018 8:23:02 GMT -5
ok, just so we have a baseline, BEFORE this whole thing went down, the Senate race was about EVEN. in other words, GOP holds the Senate 51:49.
you are claiming that this will shift the math. i can't think of how to construct a bet on that, so let's make a gentleman's bet. i say it will have ZERO impact. i am not even going to state my reasons, because i think they are obvious, and you will disagree anyway. so: VB says that the GOP will have a net gain due to the SCOTUS thing. DJ says that the GOP will have no gain due to the SCOTUS thing.
I agree with you - net zero. The midterms are still a month away, that's plenty of time for the GOP voters who got inspired by Trump's "Kavanagh is a victim' ploy to have completely forgotten about the SC.
The anti-Trump voters inspired by the SC fiasco to vote against Trump will have plenty of other reasons between now and then to continue to be angry at Trump, IMHO.
a friend posted a Trevor Noah piece on FB that i really like in which he states that Trump is a master of misappropriating the moral capital of victimhood. i think that is spot on.
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Post by happyhoix on Oct 9, 2018 9:09:42 GMT -5
I agree with you - net zero. The midterms are still a month away, that's plenty of time for the GOP voters who got inspired by Trump's "Kavanagh is a victim' ploy to have completely forgotten about the SC.
The anti-Trump voters inspired by the SC fiasco to vote against Trump will have plenty of other reasons between now and then to continue to be angry at Trump, IMHO.
a friend posted a Trevor Noah piece on FB that i really like in which he states that Trump is a master of misappropriating the moral capital of victimhood. i think that is spot on. If you noticed in the last couple days, all the big GOP politicians, including Trump, have referred to the deranged democratic mobs attempting to intimidate the poor GOP senators into voting against Kavanagh.
Someone passed out the talking points, and they're all parroting along. Expect to continue to hear about the big, bad, crazy dems for the next month.
Fear - Trump's very best propaganda tool.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 9, 2018 9:12:21 GMT -5
a friend posted a Trevor Noah piece on FB that i really like in which he states that Trump is a master of misappropriating the moral capital of victimhood. i think that is spot on. If you noticed in the last couple days, all the big GOP politicians, including Trump, have referred to the deranged democratic mobs attempting to intimidate the poor GOP senators into voting against Kavanagh.
Someone passed out the talking points, and they're all parroting along. Expect to continue to hear about the big, bad, crazy dems for the next month.
Fear - Trump's very best propaganda tool. i think it is worse than that. mob is a loaded term. it has legal implications. Trump is on his way to doing what most fascists do: criminalizing protest. and yes, that really is my opinion. liberals need to stop thinking of this stuff as political tactics. this shit can get very real in a hurry.
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Post by happyhoix on Oct 9, 2018 9:13:38 GMT -5
I remember when the president used to give inspiring speeches to unit the whole country against our common enemies, or to achieve goals, like being the first country to send a man to walk on the moon.
Now, our president denigrates victims of sexual assault by calling her a 'hoax' and formally apologizes to the guy he claims was proven to be innocent (which, of course, he wasn't - that wasn't a trial, it was a hearing to determine Kavanagh's suitability for the SCOTUS, and he failed, by the way, at least according to the ABA.)
If he deliberately set out to make our citizens turn on each other, he could not be doing a better job.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 9, 2018 9:15:37 GMT -5
I remember when the president used to give inspiring speeches to unit the whole country against our common enemies, or to achieve goals, like being the first country to send a man to walk on the moon.
Now, our president denigrates victims of sexual assault by calling her a 'hoax' and formally apologizes to the guy he claims was proven to be innocent (which, of course, he wasn't - that wasn't a trial, it was a hearing to determine Kavanagh's suitability for the SCOTUS, and he failed, by the way, at least according to the ABA.)
If he deliberately set out to make our citizens turn on each other, he could not be doing a better job.
strong leaders appeal to bravery. weak leaders appeal to fear. "there is nothing to fear but fear itself" is probably the last thing you would ever expect Trump to say.
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Post by zibazinski on Oct 9, 2018 15:03:52 GMT -5
I remember when the president used to give inspiring speeches to unit the whole country against our common enemies, or to achieve goals, like being the first country to send a man to walk on the moon.
Now, our president denigrates victims of sexual assault by calling her a 'hoax' and formally apologizes to the guy he claims was proven to be innocent (which, of course, he wasn't - that wasn't a trial, it was a hearing to determine Kavanagh's suitability for the SCOTUS, and he failed, by the way, at least according to the ABA.)
If he deliberately set out to make our citizens turn on each other, he could not be doing a better job.
I haven’t heard that in decades but I do remember
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 14, 2018 15:50:49 GMT -5
i am moving the Senate to 4:1 in favor of GOP today. i am moving the House to 4:1 in favor of Democrats today. the odds are impacted by TIME. nothing has really changed. the margins are fairly stable. but the folks that are 5+% down right now are unlikely to win. and that is where most of these races stand. edit: that having been said, the races that were close are starting to tilt, as one might expect from the odds posted above. Democrats are gaining ground in House races, and losing it in the Senate.
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 16, 2018 14:02:58 GMT -5
i am moving the Senate to 4:1 in favor of GOP today. i am moving the House to 4:1 in favor of Democrats today. the odds are impacted by TIME. nothing has really changed. the margins are fairly stable. but the folks that are 5+% down right now are unlikely to win. and that is where most of these races stand. edit: that having been said, the races that were close are starting to tilt, as one might expect from the odds posted above. Democrats are gaining ground in House races, and losing it in the Senate.
Are you sticking with these odds as of today? My estimate, best guess as of today: GOP gains seats in the Senate. Probably two more seats. GOP holds onto the House, loses 13 seats.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 16, 2018 15:10:57 GMT -5
i am moving the Senate to 4:1 in favor of GOP today. i am moving the House to 4:1 in favor of Democrats today. the odds are impacted by TIME. nothing has really changed. the margins are fairly stable. but the folks that are 5+% down right now are unlikely to win. and that is where most of these races stand. edit: that having been said, the races that were close are starting to tilt, as one might expect from the odds posted above. Democrats are gaining ground in House races, and losing it in the Senate.
Are you sticking with these odds as of today? My estimate, best guess as of today: GOP gains seats in the Senate. Probably two more seats. GOP holds onto the House, loses 13 seats. i don't do seat counts.
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 16, 2018 15:13:20 GMT -5
Are you sticking with these odds as of today? My estimate, best guess as of today: GOP gains seats in the Senate. Probably two more seats. GOP holds onto the House, loses 13 seats. i don't do seat counts. And yet, bottom line that is what counts.
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 16, 2018 15:42:23 GMT -5
And yet, bottom line that is what counts. disagree.
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