spartan7886
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Post by spartan7886 on Oct 17, 2018 8:37:24 GMT -5
I am so freaking tired of living in a toss-up district (TX-7). Daily survey calls, and yet neither RCP nor 538 are showing anything more recent than mid-September.
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thyme4change
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Post by thyme4change on Oct 17, 2018 9:34:23 GMT -5
I am so freaking tired of living in a toss-up district (TX-7). Daily survey calls, and yet neither RCP nor 538 are showing anything more recent than mid-September. I'm super happy to not have a home phone this year.
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kadee79
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Post by kadee79 on Oct 17, 2018 10:22:21 GMT -5
I have an answering machine, I never pick up the land line. And so far no one has gotten my cell number, but I won't answer that either from a number I don't recognize.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 19, 2018 13:09:11 GMT -5
i am moving the odds of Democrats taking the House to 5:1 today. the odds of Republicans maintaining the Senate remain the same at 4:1. the polling has actually swayed back toward Democrats except in two small areas: 1) Trump's approval, which is flirting with a post honeymoon high, is up 3% since Kavanaugh was seated. 2) the Generic ballot is not really moving for Democrats, but moving SLIGHTLY for Republicans. they are up about 1% in the last month. neither party has much momentum at this point, so barring any profound legislative achievements, which are highly unlikely, i suspect this number will remain at D+7 just FYI: i never had Clinton at the kind of odds to beat Trump that i am giving Democrats today on the House side. the week before i left on vacation, i had her at 9:7. my last post before i packed my laptop i put her at too close to call. so what we are seeing in the House is way more "solid" than anything Clinton had. the Democrats have ALMOST what they need in the "solid" category now, and the leaners are leaning harder every day. i still think the most interesting race in the country is the Georgia governor's race. that is the one i will be watching on 11.6
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 22, 2018 16:29:45 GMT -5
i am almost ready to move Democrats to 6:1 to take the House. almost. there are five races that moved to "likely D" in the last week. that is a lot of movement. i think the race for governors is the most interesting. there are FOUR races that are too close to call right now. they might ALL go D or they might all go R. if Democrats sweep them, Democrats will win a MAJORITY of Governors races this year, which would be a big help to them for 2020:
Georgia, Nevada, Ohio, Kansas i have mentioned the generic ballot, and will mention it again. in the last week (2) new highly rated polls show them with an 8% advantage. this would correlate nicely with the House prediction.
as i said before, i think the Governors races are the most interesting this year. if you want me to articulate why, i can, but roughly speaking we have some wild eyed liberals running against Trumpers. and in some very red states. that seems more than a little interesting to me. what has everyone elese's interest this year? the Senate? ballot measures? other?
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Oct 22, 2018 17:37:10 GMT -5
I'm also interested in the governor's races, especially GA and Florida.
I saw a few pieces of Gillum and DeSantis' debate, Gillum came across very well, DeSantis was flat footed. I think Gillum is up by some tiny sliver (1%?)
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 24, 2018 6:21:18 GMT -5
dj, any updates for us on the midterm polls?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 24, 2018 19:15:37 GMT -5
dj, any updates for us on the midterm polls? yeah, post 215. in the last month, the Senate has drifted slightly MORE toward the GOP, and the House slightly MORE toward Democrats. but it is maybe 3 seats in the House and 1/2 a seat in the Senate, so it is not much of a drift. i also added that i don't expect much more. the polls are pretty stable.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 24, 2018 20:30:47 GMT -5
i am moving the odds of the GOP taking the Senate to 5:1 today, precisely the same as the odds of Democrats taking the House.
Generic ballot is flat. Polling is flat. Trump's approval number is the highest it has been since March of 2017. However, his disapproval has stayed stubbornly above 51% (currently 52%). it has been stuck here since MAY.
This is very much a love-hate election. the opinions are running very strong. there are only 2 weeks left. i suspect things are going to pretty much go according to the above. the more interesting races are the governors races. in the tossup category there are two changes: Kansas is OUT. the state is leaning GOP. Wisconsin is IN. i really thought Walker would hold his seat, but now, i am not too sure.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 24, 2018 20:36:47 GMT -5
I'm also interested in the governor's races, especially GA and Florida.
I saw a few pieces of Gillum and DeSantis' debate, Gillum came across very well, DeSantis was flat footed. I think Gillum is up by some tiny sliver (1%?)
i first stated in another thread that i would not rule Gillum out. the next statement i made is that he held a slight lead in FL. now, i am calling this one LIKELY DEM. he has a very good chance of winning,
provided that nothing goes seriously wrong for him. he has run a very good campaign there. there is a lot to learn politically by watching him.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 24, 2018 23:29:29 GMT -5
update: i follow NINE forecasters. yeah. NINE. it is a pain in the ass. today is the first day that ALL NINE are showing Democrats with more seats than Republicans. now, before all of you Democrats get excited, the range of SOLID DEMOCRAT seats vary from a low of 206 to a high of 216. the range of SOLID REPUBLICAN seats varies from a low of 196 to a high of 206. most of the forecasters are not commenting on the remaining 25-30 seats that are too close to call. but i think it would be a good time to mention that ALMOST ALL of them (over 90%) are GOP seats. that means that the GOP will need to sweep the tossups to keep the House. this is what the GOP hopefuls are counting on. but this is why the odds of this are so low. for example, in most of these models, there is less than a 10% chance that the Democrats will flip fewer than 20 seats. that would put the odds of taking the house north of 80%, which is why i have it at 5:1. and, as i say, i am very close to rating this 6:1. i just don't quite think we are there, yet. until a few of the forecasters have the Democrats at OVER 219 (NONE do now), i am not budging. the GOP DOES have a shot at keeping the House, folks. let's not discount that possibility. the GOP has a structural bias to win this round of 5-10% depending on the state. and that is about where they are. this might be a real squeaker, or the Democrats might win comfortably, but i think the odds are quite good that the House is going to Democrats, and the Senate (for the same structural reasons, but reversed) are going to keep the Senate. and again, for all of you loudmouths, if you are so sure i am wrong, put up some money. i have a son in college now, so i could use the extra cash.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Oct 26, 2018 15:13:08 GMT -5
so, three months to go to midterms. here are my predictions: 1) Russian interference is a given. <--CRAZY JUICE 2) despite that, i suspect that Democrats will retake the House. current odds i am giving are 5:3 Real odds: 0% 3) GOP will hold on to the Senate. current odds i am giving are 7:3 Real odds: 100% 4) i don't have any governership predictions, but the GOP will probably maintain a majority. Probably? Really? Are you even aware of the current state of the Democratic Party at the state level? anyone want to contradict me on the above? if so, why? NOTE: losing the house will have major ramifications for legislation, investigation, and legal oversight of the presidency. and yes, that would be really helpful at this point, as we can't rely upon Trey Gowdy and his cronies to defy this president, and do the right thing, should the hour come. it will NOT, however, help Democrats in terms of judicial appointments. so, Trump is going to win that one, unless Democrats can ALSO flip the Senate, which they are favored to do in 2020.
Current reality-based prediction: House: GOP +12 (Moved down because I concur with some Dem posters here that NY 27 is likely lost) Senate: GOP +8 (I recently moved Braun- IN (The bloom's off the libertarian ruse), Heller- NV, and Hawley- MO (Hawley is actually shaping up to be a blowout) to the win column where they will stay. It's over in those states. Phil Bredesen, Heidi Heitkamp, and Richard O'Rourke were always going to lose. They were part of my original net 6 prediction. Nelson might have held Florida, but Florida Democrats made two absolutely fatal mistakes: Amendment 4- the "Register More Democrats" amendment which would give felons the right to vote; and they were asleep at the wheel and let a communist get the gubernatorial nomination-- and no, he is not "leading". Gillum will lose by 20 + points- guaranteed. It's not even a question. Gillum is up by 6 points like Hillary was up 13. States I'm watching: Machin- WV- currently down by 2. He will likely win, but I'm monitoring; Stabenow- MI- her opponent is a far superior candidate and human being (when I can't be racist, I settle for sexist This is sarcasm if your funny bone doesn't work) and while he is trailing he has pulled within single-digits after being down 23 points-- all he needs is for the polls to keep shifting-- 23 points to 7 isn't "tightening"-- that's real movement. Will it continue? It's a coin toss. Advantage: Stabenow. But again- monitoring. There are 50 House races to watch- maybe I'll detail them at some point, but 6 of them in which Dems had the best shot at picking up are now all dead-heat races which means Dems lose.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 26, 2018 15:36:23 GMT -5
Paul: i can back up everything i post. please cease engaging in ad-hominem. TYIA. as to the rest of your post: Current reality-based prediction:
House: GOP +12 (Moved down because I concur with some Dem posters here that NY 27 is likely lost) there is no way they do better than -12, imo. there is a 0% chance of that. you heard it here. your prediction is utterly wrong, and there is no data to support it.
Senate: GOP +8 (I recently moved Braun- IN (The bloom's off the libertarian ruse), Heller- NV, and Hawley- MO (Hawley is actually shaping up to be a blowout) to the win column where they will stay. It's over in those states. there is no way they do better than +5, imo. there is a 0% chance of that. you heard it here. your prediction is utterly wrong, and there is no data to support it.
Phil Bredesen, Heidi Heitkamp, and Richard O'Rourke were always going to lose. They were part of my original net 6 prediction.
i agree with you that these three will lose, but they are not needed for a Democratic MAJORITY, let alone an 8 seat loss. so, what OTHER eight seats do you see Democrats losing?
Nelson might have held Florida, but Florida Democrats made two absolutely fatal mistakes: Amendment 4- the "Register More Democrats" amendment which would give felons the right to vote; and they were asleep at the wheel and let a communist get the gubernatorial nomination-- and no, he is not "leading". Gillum will lose by 20 + points- guaranteed. It's not even a question. Gillum is up by 6 points like Hillary was up 13.
i know of no polls that showed Clinton +13. so, again, i call this absolute bullshit. the final RCP tally was Trump+0.4%. he won by 1.2%. so, using your analogy, if RCP is showing Gillum +4.5%, adjusting 0.8%, he is +3.7%, which is not an insurmountable margin, but pretty secure.
States I'm watching: Machin- WV- currently down by 2. He will likely win, but I'm monitoring; Stabenow- MI- her opponent is a far superior candidate and human being (when I can't be racist, I settle for sexist This is sarcasm if your funny bone doesn't work) and while he is trailing he has pulled within single-digits after being down 23 points-- all he needs is for the polls to keep shifting-- 23 points to 7 isn't "tightening"-- that's real movement. Will it continue? It's a coin toss. Advantage: Stabenow. But again- monitoring.
this analysis shoots down your earlier claim of +8.
There are 50 House races to watch- maybe I'll detail them at some point, but 6 of them in which Dems had the best shot at picking up are now all dead-heat races which means Dems lose.
i disagree here, as well. i think anyone watching 50 seats is watching 20-30 seats too many.
all in all, this is about 10x crazier than MittMentum. it's too bad you go so far out on a limb every time. it makes you utterly incredible. but dare to dream, Paul. dare to dream.
REITERATING: there is no way that any of these seat count predictions come to pass. mark my words. there is a ZERO PERCENT chance that any of this will happen.
oh, and by the way, most people know the Russians are interfering with this election. it is not "crazy". even the GOP admits it is true. your brazen personal attack is just silly.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 26, 2018 22:37:11 GMT -5
dj stated in a post to Paul: Senate: GOP +8 (I recently moved Braun- IN (The bloom's off the libertarian ruse), Heller- NV, and Hawley- MO (Hawley is actually shaping up to be a blowout) to the win column where they will stay. It's over in those states. there is no way they do better than +5, imo. there is a 0% chance of that. you heard it here. your prediction is utterly wrong, and there is no data to support it.
So you now agree with me on the Senate numbers I predicted?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 26, 2018 22:55:18 GMT -5
dj stated in a post to Paul: Senate: GOP +8 (I recently moved Braun- IN (The bloom's off the libertarian ruse), Heller- NV, and Hawley- MO (Hawley is actually shaping up to be a blowout) to the win column where they will stay. It's over in those states. there is no way they do better than +5, imo. there is a 0% chance of that. you heard it here. your prediction is utterly wrong, and there is no data to support it.
So you now agree with me on the Senate numbers I predicted? i agree that there is a 5% chance you are right. i already said that. look it up.
there is a 0% chance that Paul is right. that is why i am ASKING YOU, NICELY, what races that are in the "Likely Democrat" column they will lose. maybe you know something i don't know. perhaps you recognize the difference between unlikely and impossible.
perhaps not.
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zibazinski
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Post by zibazinski on Oct 27, 2018 6:28:43 GMT -5
God help Florida if Gillum wins. I thought he was a joke even with his dirty money backing. Now I’m just scared for my state. It’d suck for Georgia but I don’t live there so I’d survive but I don’t want a socialist in Florida.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 27, 2018 8:47:17 GMT -5
dj stated in a post to Paul: Senate: GOP +8 (I recently moved Braun- IN (The bloom's off the libertarian ruse), Heller- NV, and Hawley- MO (Hawley is actually shaping up to be a blowout) to the win column where they will stay. It's over in those states. there is no way they do better than +5, imo. there is a 0% chance of that. you heard it here. your prediction is utterly wrong, and there is no data to support it.
So you now agree with me on the Senate numbers I predicted? i agree that there is a 5% chance you are right. i already said that. look it up.
there is a 0% chance that Paul is right. that is why i am ASKING YOU, NICELY, what races that are in the "Likely Democrat" column they will lose. maybe you know something i don't know. perhaps you recognize the difference between unlikely and impossible.
perhaps not.
I do not follow every Congressional race in every state. I am retired and too busy for that. I did see this morning that Keith Ellison is now in trouble in Minnesota, trailing an unkown white guy for A.G. Senator Menendez is now probably fading to the Republican in that New Jersey's Senate race. Did not see that one coming.
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zibazinski
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Post by zibazinski on Oct 27, 2018 8:56:57 GMT -5
God help Florida if Gillum wins. I thought he was a joke even with his dirty money backing. Now I’m just scared for my state. It’d suck for Georgia but I don’t live there so I’d survive but I don’t want a socialist in Florida. Your hilereouse with your racial fears....right out of the 1940's...Hate to inform u...we are in the 21st century now... I can certainly understand why you would feel that way.
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dezii
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Post by dezii on Oct 27, 2018 9:26:09 GMT -5
Your hilereouse with your racial fears....right out of the 1940's...Hate to inform u...we are in the 21st century now... I can certainly understand why you would feel that way. Afraid it's a bit more then just feelings...my problem is I just don't understand racial fears at all...not even 1%...to me, illogical...but that's me.
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Gardening Grandma
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Post by Gardening Grandma on Oct 27, 2018 11:58:23 GMT -5
God help Florida if Gillum wins. I thought he was a joke even with his dirty money backing. Now I’m just scared for my state. It’d suck for Georgia but I don’t live there so I’d survive but I don’t want a socialist in Florida. It must be awful to be so fearful...
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zibazinski
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Post by zibazinski on Oct 27, 2018 13:44:19 GMT -5
Yes it is. I’ve seen the city he “ran” into the ground.
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kadee79
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Post by kadee79 on Oct 27, 2018 13:56:57 GMT -5
Yes it is. I’ve seen the city he “ran” into the ground. Do you live there?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 27, 2018 14:11:02 GMT -5
i agree that there is a 5% chance you are right. i already said that. look it up.
there is a 0% chance that Paul is right. that is why i am ASKING YOU, NICELY, what races that are in the "Likely Democrat" column they will lose. maybe you know something i don't know. perhaps you recognize the difference between unlikely and impossible.
perhaps not.
I do not follow every Congressional race in every state. I am retired and too busy for that. I did see this morning that Keith Ellison is now in trouble in Minnesota, trailing an unkown white guy for A.G. Senator Menendez is now probably fading to the Republican in that New Jersey's Senate race. Did not see that one coming. OK, you named two. thanks. i am currently giving both those candidates an 80%+ chance of winning.
as of this morning, you now have a 1 in 18 chance of being right, not 1 in 20. oh, and Paul has a less than 1% chance he is right, not zero. so i apologize for gilding, there. finally, i was not asking you about the congressional races. i don't expect you to run down the 30 races that are within margin of error and tell me which ones the GOP will win. that's silly.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 27, 2018 14:12:32 GMT -5
God help Florida if Gillum wins. I thought he was a joke even with his dirty money backing. Now I’m just scared for my state. It’d suck for Georgia but I don’t live there so I’d survive but I don’t want a socialist in Florida. from what i can tell, he seems like a decent guy, and a very good campaigner. what is your SPECIFIC complaint about him?
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Oct 27, 2018 16:39:10 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 27, 2018 17:26:03 GMT -5
oh good. reality is setting in. hopefully, he will next prepare himself to be thoroughly investigated by committee, and to have half the legislature backing Mueller, and to ensure that nobody dangerous to that process makes it past vetting.
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dezii
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Post by dezii on Oct 27, 2018 18:04:06 GMT -5
God help Florida if Gillum wins. I thought he was a joke even with his dirty money backing. Now I’m just scared for my state. It’d suck for Georgia but I don’t live there so I’d survive but I don’t want a socialist in Florida. from what i can tell, he seems like a decent guy, and a very good campaigner. what is your SPECIFIC complaint about him?
I have a feeling the mans skin color is the "specific"....just thinking.
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zibazinski
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Post by zibazinski on Oct 27, 2018 22:29:49 GMT -5
God help Florida if Gillum wins. I thought he was a joke even with his dirty money backing. Now I’m just scared for my state. It’d suck for Georgia but I don’t live there so I’d survive but I don’t want a socialist in Florida. from what i can tell, he seems like a decent guy, and a very good campaigner. what is your SPECIFIC complaint about him?
Other than being investigated for bribes from the FBI of all things?
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zibazinski
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Post by zibazinski on Oct 27, 2018 22:31:47 GMT -5
from what i can tell, he seems like a decent guy, and a very good campaigner. what is your SPECIFIC complaint about him?
I have a feeling the mans skin color is the "specific"....just thinking. Bullshit but nice try to paint me racist. I already said I voted for a black male Dem over a white female republican but that doesn’t fit into your little world does it?
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dezii
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Post by dezii on Oct 28, 2018 0:40:08 GMT -5
I have a feeling the mans skin color is the "specific"....just thinking. Bullshit but nice try to paint me racist. I already said I voted for a black male Dem over a white female republican but that doesn’t fit into your little world does it? My world is anything but little and I have moved in large areas at one time... As I said...I had a feeling not a definite knowledge...but just a vote for one does not mean , when all is considered, one is not more comfortable with one race over another. I know your familier with the old adage.. " What me prejudice..? Some of my best friends are....yadda, yadda" [fill in whatever u are comfortable with] My response is to your statement...I have followed closely the contest of the two men and there is a world of difference between the two men...and the Democrat is not spouting socialist crap...The other one is kissing up and bending over to all things Trump...even to the point of a Governor has to kow tow to the one in power in Washington for the well being of his State. If u believe that is what u want as a Governor of your State...so be it...Definitly not my idea of a State leader plus his ads do tend to have a racial tone to them..playing up the racial differences between the two...and that to me is a hugh turn off...possible not u...If so, fine, thats your cross to carry.
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