weltschmerz
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Post by weltschmerz on Aug 19, 2017 11:28:21 GMT -5
I don't know what the answer is.
However, marches and protests of "You won't scare us! We shall overcome!" seems to rev them up.
"Wanna bet? Watch us!"
Bastards.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Aug 19, 2017 11:39:17 GMT -5
I don't know what the answer is. However, marches and protests of "You won't scare us! We shall overcome!" seems to rev them up. "Wanna bet? Watch us!" Bastards. While extinction, when implemented consistently over time, results in the eventual decrease of the undesired behavior, in the short-term the subject might exhibit what is called an extinction burst. An extinction burst will often occur when the extinction procedure has just begun. This usually consists of a sudden and temporary increase in the response's frequency, followed by the eventual decline and extinction of the behavior targeted for elimination. Novel behavior, or emotional responses or aggressive behavior, may also occur.[1] en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extinction_(psychology)
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Aug 19, 2017 11:41:59 GMT -5
Not march through the streets chanting? Weltz is correctly pointing out that it's a phenomenal waste of time and energy. And if ISIS does happen to give a toot--which I highly doubt--it will see the defiance as a provocation. The goal of terror attacks is to create a feeling of terror in the general population and get them to force their government to react in political ways that benefit those supporting the attacks. The way to ultimately end the attacks is to demonstrate that they are ineffectual. That is exactly what the Spaniards are doing and I applaud their efforts. Effectual attacks are the ones that get people angry enough to abandon their daily lives to march down the street for no good reason. To say nothing of the fact that your assessment flies directly in the face of observable reality. Decades of ticker tape parades demonstrating the "ineffectiveness" of terrorism haven't halted or even mitigated the rate of increase in the attacks. Post-attack marches are a coping mechanism and futile gesture of defiance, nothing more.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Aug 19, 2017 12:28:02 GMT -5
The goal of terror attacks is to create a feeling of terror in the general population and get them to force their government to react in political ways that benefit those supporting the attacks. The way to ultimately end the attacks is to demonstrate that they are ineffectual. That is exactly what the Spaniards are doing and I applaud their efforts. Effectual attacks are the ones that get people angry enough to abandon their daily lives to march down the street for no good reason. To say nothing of the fact that your assessment flies directly in the face of observable reality. Decades of ticker tape parades demonstrating the "ineffectiveness" of terrorism haven't halted or even mitigated the rate of increase in the attacks. Post-attack marches are a coping mechanism and futile gesture of defiance, nothing more. Terror has been intermittently used as a strategy throughout history with a mixed bag of reactions and results. That it is attempted anew by different groups to test reaction is not surprising to me. As far as whether any particular reaction "mitigated the rate of increase" or not is unprovable.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Aug 19, 2017 13:10:02 GMT -5
Effectual attacks are the ones that get people angry enough to abandon their daily lives to march down the street for no good reason. To say nothing of the fact that your assessment flies directly in the face of observable reality. Decades of ticker tape parades demonstrating the "ineffectiveness" of terrorism haven't halted or even mitigated the rate of increase in the attacks. Post-attack marches are a coping mechanism and futile gesture of defiance, nothing more. Terror has been intermittently used as a strategy throughout history with a mixed bag of reactions and results. That it is attempted anew by different groups to test reaction is not surprising to me. As far as whether any particular reaction "mitigated the rate of increase" or not is unprovable. I guess the protestors in Charlottesville ought to stage another gathering if they want to prevail in their ideological war. Another protest will show those counter-protestors just how ineffectual their counterprotests are. Eventually they'll just give up and go home. They certainly won't consider it a provocation and ramp up their efforts.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Aug 19, 2017 13:34:19 GMT -5
Terror has been intermittently used as a strategy throughout history with a mixed bag of reactions and results. That it is attempted anew by different groups to test reaction is not surprising to me. As far as whether any particular reaction "mitigated the rate of increase" or not is unprovable. I guess the protestors in Charlottesville ought to stage another gathering if they want to prevail in their ideological war. Another protest will show those counter-protestors just how ineffectual their counterprotests are. Eventually they'll just give up and go home. They certainly won't consider it a provocation and ramp up their efforts. I was addressing the strategy of terror and how to deal with it. Not sure why you would suggest using the same reaction to a totally different strategy used to achieve a political goal.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Aug 19, 2017 18:32:21 GMT -5
I guess the protestors in Charlottesville ought to stage another gathering if they want to prevail in their ideological war. Another protest will show those counter-protestors just how ineffectual their counterprotests are. Eventually they'll just give up and go home. They certainly won't consider it a provocation and ramp up their efforts. I was addressing the strategy of terror and how to deal with it. Not sure why you would suggest using the same reaction to a totally different strategy used to achieve a political goal. ISIS is as likely to be dissuaded by marching Spaniards as leftists are by marching alt-rightists. If the marching and show of defiance helps the Spaniards cope with the tragedy, more power to them, but in terms of dissuading terrorism the gesture is futile at best, counterproductive at worst. If I were an ISIS operative, I'd celebrate all the more for every city I could damage severely enough to bring its citizens out into the street. Obviously you don't agree, hence it's our mutual good fortune that we don't have to.
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weltschmerz
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Post by weltschmerz on Aug 19, 2017 18:49:14 GMT -5
Baloney. There have been marches and shows of solidarity after every attack. They're increasing in frequency.
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Post by billisonboard on Aug 19, 2017 18:51:54 GMT -5
... If I were an ISIS operative, I'd celebrate all the more for every city I could damage severely enough to bring its citizens out into the street. ... I see a city demonstrating it wasn't damaged by taking to the streets. The streets would be deserted if the city had actually been damaged.
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weltschmerz
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Post by weltschmerz on Aug 19, 2017 18:53:41 GMT -5
Evidently, an Imam in a Barcelona mosque has been grooming young men for jihad.
Every single person who was aware of it, but didn't report it, is just as guilty.
We have a mosque here where an Imam was preaching hate speech, encouraging the extermination, slaughter and annihilation of all Jews on the planet.
Nobody reported him.
Every single person who was aware of it, but said nothing, is just as guilty.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Aug 19, 2017 18:53:51 GMT -5
Baloney. There have been marches and shows of solidarity after every attack. They're increasing in frequency. Burst. See reply #31
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Aug 20, 2017 0:36:17 GMT -5
The streets would be deserted if the city had actually been damaged. I can't even begin to imagine where you get this idea from, but it's not reality. Maybe if ISIS dropped a neutron bomb on Barcelona...
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Aug 20, 2017 7:24:23 GMT -5
... Maybe if ISIS dropped a neutron bomb on Barcelona... If ISIS no longer used terror attacks as a strategy, it would change the dynamics.
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Post by billisonboard on Aug 20, 2017 7:31:28 GMT -5
The streets would be deserted if the city had actually been damaged. I can't even begin to imagine where you get this idea from, ... I have answered this before. My knowledge of terror as a strategy come from academic study of the topic. I can imagine where your ideas come from but would like to hear if I am wrong.
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Aug 20, 2017 8:33:22 GMT -5
My knowledge of terror as a strategy come from academic study of the topic. From when? The 1970's? Did it distinguish between targeted attacks (e.g. abortion clinic bombings) and indiscriminate mass killing? Did it look at 21st Century jihadism? Can you cite a book or whitepaper you found particularly enlightening?
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Aug 20, 2017 8:51:05 GMT -5
My knowledge of terror as a strategy come from academic study of the topic. From when? The 1970's? Did it distinguish between targeted attacks (e.g. abortion clinic bombings) and indiscriminate mass killing? Did it look at 21st Century jihadism? Can you cite a book or whitepaper you found particularly enlightening? Yes, older study of the topic. Fair critique. But terror as a strategy is age old and not dependent on who is using it. It isn't the same strategy as protests marches (reply #34) nor traditional war (reply #41).
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Post by zibazinski on Aug 20, 2017 9:09:36 GMT -5
Gee look at the perps, young males. There's a shocker. Any imam and mosque that preaches hate and destruction should be deported along with his followers and the mosque dismantled.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Aug 20, 2017 9:18:21 GMT -5
From when? The 1970's? Did it distinguish between targeted attacks (e.g. abortion clinic bombings) and indiscriminate mass killing? Did it look at 21st Century jihadism? Can you cite a book or whitepaper you found particularly enlightening? Yes, older study of the topic. Fair critique. But terror as a strategy is age old and not dependent on who is using it. It isn't the same strategy as protests marches (reply #34) nor traditional war (reply #41). I can see where, for example, abortion clinic bombings scaring away potential clients might embolden the bombers, and conversely why they might become discouraged if their attacks had no effect. But this is fundamentally different from 21st Century jihadism in a litany of ways. It has extremely specific targets, specific actionable demands, a totally different underlying philosophy (most notably, it's not motivated by revenge or conquest), and occurs at a different scale. What's more, the "payoff" to the terrorists would be lower attendance at the clinics, which would manifest or not regardless of angry protests. I don't share your indefatigable belief that protests meaningfully change anyone's behaviour--excepting politicians'.
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Post by billisonboard on Aug 20, 2017 9:59:53 GMT -5
Yes, older study of the topic. Fair critique. But terror as a strategy is age old and not dependent on who is using it. It isn't the same strategy as protests marches (reply #34) nor traditional war (reply #41). I can see where, for example, abortion clinic bombings scaring away potential clients might embolden the bombers, and conversely why they might become discouraged if their attacks had no effect. But this is fundamentally different from 21st Century jihadism in a litany of ways. It has extremely specific targets, specific actionable demands, a totally different underlying philosophy (most notably, it's not motivated by revenge or conquest), and occurs at a different scale. ... Abortion clinic bombings aren't terror attacks.
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Post by billisonboard on Aug 20, 2017 10:06:49 GMT -5
... ... I don't share your indefatigable belief that protests meaningfully change anyone's behaviour--excepting politicians'. The leadership of ISIS are, in their way, politicians. When it becomes clear that terror is not having the desired effect, they will stop calling for it. Will there still be isolated attacks by those who don't get the message, sure. But it will fade to very few and far between.
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Post by billisonboard on Aug 20, 2017 10:45:06 GMT -5
In Columbine the author pointed out that terror attacks are performance art. ... I disagree that terror attacks are performance art.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Aug 20, 2017 10:48:31 GMT -5
... As another example it's the counter protesters that give weight and consequence to the neo-Nazis. If everyone ignored them it wouldn't be covered in the news and would instead be a handful of pathetic people milling about. A protest march is not performance art.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Aug 20, 2017 11:28:54 GMT -5
... ... I don't share your indefatigable belief that protests meaningfully change anyone's behaviour--excepting politicians'. The leadership of ISIS are, in their way, politicians. When it becomes clear that terror is not having the desired effect, they will stop calling for it. I hope not. If and when this happens, my mind will explode, I'll suffer a massive stroke, and I'll be a vegetable for the rest of my life.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Aug 20, 2017 11:38:29 GMT -5
The leadership of ISIS are, in their way, politicians. When it becomes clear that terror is not having the desired effect, they will stop calling for it. I hope not. If and when this happens, my mind will explode, I'll suffer a massive stroke, and I'll be a vegetable for the rest of my life. Sorry guy, but I do hope it happens. I think this applies:
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Aug 20, 2017 12:11:42 GMT -5
I simply don't live in a world where ISIS leaders waging a holy war against the West, intent upon establishing a global caliphate and purging all unbelievers, consider people marching in the streets in any way detrimental to "the desired effect" of indiscriminate mass bombings. In my world, which meshes perfectly with observable reality for the past 20 years, ISIS and other jihadist organizations escalate, proliferate, and utterly disregard futile protest marches, and will continue to do so until they succeed in their mission or run out of resources.
But... if 2017 is the year when those angry picketers in Barcelona chanting "Down with ISIS." inspires the (highly reasonable) ISIS leadership to shift gears, abandon terrorism, and funnel their dwindling resources into publishing Salafist versions of Dr. Seuss classics, it will be my "Mittmentum" moment and I promise to apologize for my deep skepticism.
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Post by billisonboard on Aug 20, 2017 12:54:13 GMT -5
I simply don't live in a world where ISIS leaders waging a holy war against the West, intent upon establishing a global caliphate and purging all unbelievers, consider people marching in the streets in any way detrimental to "the desired effect" of indiscriminate mass bombings. In my world, which meshes perfectly with observable reality for the past 20 years, ISIS and other jihadist organizations escalate, proliferate, and utterly disregard futile protest marches, and will continue to do so until they succeed in their mission or run out of resources. But... if 2017 is the year when those angry picketers in Barcelona chanting "Down with ISIS." inspires the (highly reasonable) ISIS leadership to shift gears, abandon terrorism, and funnel their dwindling resources into publishing Salafist versions of Dr. Seuss classics, it will be my "Mittmentum" moment and I promise to apologize for my deep skepticism. in 2011,terrorists saw the United States react perfectly with passage of the Patriot Act. It is no surprise that a short six years later they are still attempting to replicate and build on that success.
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Post by billisonboard on Aug 20, 2017 13:29:34 GMT -5
I simply don't live in a world where ISIS leaders waging a holy war against the West, intent upon establishing a global caliphate and purging all unbelievers, consider people marching in the streets in any way detrimental to "the desired effect" of indiscriminate mass bombings. ... Have we had any recent mass bombings? I can remember hearing about a few small isolated cases but nothing "mass" by jihadists. There was that one use of a massive bomb and some targeted bombings but that was our side.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Aug 20, 2017 19:29:19 GMT -5
I simply don't live in a world where ISIS leaders waging a holy war against the West, intent upon establishing a global caliphate and purging all unbelievers, consider people marching in the streets in any way detrimental to "the desired effect" of indiscriminate mass bombings. ... Have we had any recent mass bombings? I can remember hearing about a few small isolated cases but nothing "mass" by jihadists. There was that one use of a massive bomb and some targeted bombings but that was our side. I should have said "mass attacks", but even limiting ourselves to bombings, the Manchester concert bombing comes to mind. There was also a foiled plot to bomb commuter trains in Canada late last year, and this latest attack in Barcelona apparently included an explosive component, but it was foiled by police. Wikipedia has (what I presume is) a reasonably complete listing of mass terror attacks going back to the 1990's. A more comprehensive site would also include a listing of intercepted terrorist plots, and a truly complete resource would also include declassified details of foiled terror plots that never became public knowledge.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Aug 20, 2017 19:30:03 GMT -5
I simply don't live in a world where ISIS leaders waging a holy war against the West, intent upon establishing a global caliphate and purging all unbelievers, consider people marching in the streets in any way detrimental to "the desired effect" of indiscriminate mass bombings. In my world, which meshes perfectly with observable reality for the past 20 years, ISIS and other jihadist organizations escalate, proliferate, and utterly disregard futile protest marches, and will continue to do so until they succeed in their mission or run out of resources. But... if 2017 is the year when those angry picketers in Barcelona chanting "Down with ISIS." inspires the (highly reasonable) ISIS leadership to shift gears, abandon terrorism, and funnel their dwindling resources into publishing Salafist versions of Dr. Seuss classics, it will be my "Mittmentum" moment and I promise to apologize for my deep skepticism. in 2011,terrorists saw the United States react perfectly with passage of the Patriot Act. It is no surprise that a short six years later they are still attempting to replicate and build on that success. How do terrorists benefit from the passage of the Patriot Act?
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Post by billisonboard on Aug 20, 2017 20:02:51 GMT -5
in 2011,terrorists saw the United States react perfectly with passage of the Patriot Act. It is no surprise that a short six years later they are still attempting to replicate and build on that success. How do terrorists benefit from the passage of the Patriot Act? It is not what they gained but what we lost.
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