djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 3, 2016 10:14:32 GMT -5
NOTE: if you guys thing that running against Obama is a good strategy, i would urge you to consider where he stands in the polls right now. he has 49% approval- approximately what REAGAN had at this point in his presidency. y'allz might think that Obama is the worst president ever, but clearly that is not what most people think- especially outside Republican circles. I thought it was 51% Did he drop? I admit, the world did not collapse under his watch. It just looks like it. no. he is been stuck at 49 for a long time. he has not been over 50 since OBL was killed.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 3, 2016 12:16:22 GMT -5
I went to the first link "five thirty eight" that you listed, and the first thing I see is big picture of HC with the words "I'm with her" over the top of it, with "sign up now" underneath. ![](http://images.proboards.com/new/smiley.png) Uh huh. I didn't go to any of the others, sorry. I'm not a big pollster, as it's not too exact of a science. I've seen to many other experts on other less than exact sciences. It just isn't for me. The wording of how the questions are asked in the poll, is all you're really polling.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 3, 2016 13:32:30 GMT -5
I went to the first link "five thirty eight" that you listed, and the first thing I see is big picture of HC with the words "I'm with her" over the top of it, with "sign up now" underneath. ![](http://images.proboards.com/new/smiley.png) Uh huh. I didn't go to any of the others, sorry. I'm not a big pollster, as it's not too exact of a science. I've seen to many other experts on other less than exact sciences. It just isn't for me. The wording of how the questions are asked in the poll, is all you're really polling. i suggested that you use the LAST link, which is a summary of the issue. note: i have AdBlock so i don't see ANY ads. so, i wouldn't know. Rasmussen's polling quality has been terrible for over half a decade. i normally don't even cite them. i did in the case above because they were the ONLY outfit that did a national poll that week.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 3, 2016 13:36:55 GMT -5
I went to the first link "five thirty eight" that you listed, and the first thing I see is big picture of HC with the words "I'm with her" over the top of it, with "sign up now" underneath. ![](http://images.proboards.com/new/smiley.png) Uh huh. I didn't go to any of the others, sorry. I'm not a big pollster, as it's not too exact of a science. I've seen to many other experts on other less than exact sciences. It just isn't for me. The wording of how the questions are asked in the poll, is all you're really polling. i suggested that you use the LAST link, which is a summary of the issue. note: i have AdBlock so i don't see ANY ads. so, i wouldn't know. Rasmussen's polling quality has been terrible for over half a decade. i normally don't even cite them. i did in the case above because they were the ONLY outfit that did a national poll that week. I still don't follow the poll thing. It's not because of anything you post or believe in. I'll just leave it at that.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Jun 3, 2016 13:37:17 GMT -5
... i normally don't even cite them. i did in the case above because they were the ONLY outfit that did a national poll that week. Dancing to bad music is better than not dancing at all? ![](http://syonidv.hodginsmedia.com/vsmileys/charmed.png)
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 3, 2016 14:34:27 GMT -5
... i normally don't even cite them. i did in the case above because they were the ONLY outfit that did a national poll that week. Dancing to bad music is better than not dancing at all? ![](http://syonidv.hodginsmedia.com/vsmileys/charmed.png) precisely. if you gotta dance, you gotta dance. you know? ![](http://syonidv.hodginsmedia.com/vsmileys/banana.gif) before you posted this, i was thinking to myself: "is Rasmussen better than NO polling". and the answer is yes. but not much.
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OldCoyote
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Post by OldCoyote on Jun 3, 2016 22:39:23 GMT -5
I think the pols showed Hillary ahead at 49% to Bernie 47% with bernie gaining,
With Hillary's complete democratic political machine behind her, the small difference between the two, should be a huge concern to the party leaders!
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Jun 4, 2016 8:37:06 GMT -5
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Post by Value Buy on Jun 4, 2016 8:53:06 GMT -5
Great news for Hillary. Latest poll has her up 10% over Trump in the fall election. No reason to bother with the vote. It's allover already.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Jun 4, 2016 10:42:49 GMT -5
To me, if you're still asking: I wonder if that will work for him or against him? You are going to wake up on inauguration day January 2017 confused about what's going on. Trump has rallied more of the base than 5 out of 6 of the last Republican candidates, including Reagan in the month following securing the nomination. The exception is Romney who rallied 87% to Trump's 85%, however as of now- with 9 primaries left to go, Trump's popular vote total of 11,536,494 is a LOT more than Romney's popular vote total at the end of the entire process of 9,809,662. Do the math and you'll discover that numerically, Trump has rallied 1,271,615 more actual voters than Romney which is important since Romney lost the general election by about 5 million votes. There's actually a number of prominent, respected, reliable sources whose combined wisdom in one way or another is predictive of a possible 50-state landslide for Trump.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Jun 4, 2016 10:47:11 GMT -5
I went to the first link "five thirty eight" that you listed, and the first thing I see is big picture of HC with the words "I'm with her" over the top of it, with "sign up now" underneath. ![](http://images.proboards.com/new/smiley.png) Uh huh. I didn't go to any of the others, sorry. I'm not a big pollster, as it's not too exact of a science. I've seen to many other experts on other less than exact sciences. It just isn't for me. The wording of how the questions are asked in the poll, is all you're really polling. i suggested that you use the LAST link, which is a summary of the issue. note: i have AdBlock so i don't see ANY ads. so, i wouldn't know. Rasmussen's polling quality has been terrible for over half a decade. i normally don't even cite them. i did in the case above because they were the ONLY outfit that did a national poll that week. 7 Times Nate Silver (FiveThirtyEight) Was Hilariously WRONG About Donald Trump: dailycaller.com/2016/05/04/7-times-nate-silver-was-hilariously-wrong-about-donald-trump/"I acted like a pundit and screwed up on Donald Trump" - Nate Silver fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/The Media's Trump Reckoning: Everyone Was Wrong: www.politico.com/story/2016/03/donald-trump-media-response-220033
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Jun 4, 2016 11:43:21 GMT -5
Politico? Their reporter was denied press credentials by Trump so entered the recent event on a GA ticket. He was then ousted by Trump's brownshirts for practicing journalism.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Jun 4, 2016 12:05:50 GMT -5
... Romney lost the general election by about 5 million votes. ... FWIW, he actually lost it by 126 votes.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Jun 4, 2016 14:12:56 GMT -5
... Romney lost the general election by about 5 million votes. ... FWIW, he actually lost it by 126 votes. Link me.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Jun 4, 2016 14:13:37 GMT -5
Politico? Their reporter was denied press credentials by Trump so entered the recent event on a GA ticket. He was then ousted by Trump's brownshirts for practicing journalism. Link me.
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Jun 4, 2016 15:05:50 GMT -5
The story was on page A3 of today's Seattle Times.
The provided link was from googling Trump rally expels Politico reporter. www.politico.com/story/2016/06/donald-trump-security-politico-reporter-223856
This is from one of the other links there:
The Trump campaign has cracked down on where reporters are allowed to be during his rallies. Reporters have said that they were explicitly forbidden from leaving the press pen when Trump is in the room. The Trump campaign also reportedly requires reporters to have an escort when going to the bathroom.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2016 18:52:24 GMT -5
Great news for Hillary. Latest poll has her up 10% over Trump in the fall election. No reason to bother with the vote. It's allover already. In case you have forgotten... polls right after he announced also showed that Trump didn't have a chance at the Republican Nomination either... (not that I want Trump, mind you... just saying "don't believe it just because a poll says it")
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 4, 2016 19:02:49 GMT -5
I think the pols showed Hillary ahead at 49% to Bernie 47% with bernie gaining, With Hillary's complete democratic political machine behind her, the small difference between the two, should be a huge concern to the party leaders! you think wrong(ly). no polls show Sanders up nationally against Clinton. none that i have seen, anyway. if you find out otherwise, post a link.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 4, 2016 19:04:20 GMT -5
the fact that Rasmussen sucks has nothing to do with whether or not Nate Silver does.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Jun 4, 2016 19:07:42 GMT -5
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Post by billisonboard on Jun 4, 2016 20:26:17 GMT -5
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Jun 4, 2016 21:38:01 GMT -5
![](http://syonidv.hodginsmedia.com/vsmileys/deadhorse.gif) Have fun discussing the electoral college with someone else.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Jun 4, 2016 21:39:10 GMT -5
The story was on page A3 of today's Seattle Times.
The provided link was from googling Trump rally expels Politico reporter. www.politico.com/story/2016/06/donald-trump-security-politico-reporter-223856
This is from one of the other links there:
The Trump campaign has cracked down on where reporters are allowed to be during his rallies. Reporters have said that they were explicitly forbidden from leaving the press pen when Trump is in the room. The Trump campaign also reportedly requires reporters to have an escort when going to the bathroom. This is understandable. The media are mostly leftists and they have a great deal of trouble figuring out which bathroom to use. They're just trying to help.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Jun 4, 2016 21:43:20 GMT -5
... There's actually a number of prominent, respected, reliable sources ... A guy who wrote a book on how to learn different languages, a comic strip guy, a gal who posted a video on the Internet, Newt, and you?
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Jun 4, 2016 21:53:48 GMT -5
... There's actually a number of prominent, respected, reliable sources ... A guy who wrote a book on how to learn different languages, a comic strip guy, a gal who posted a video on the Internet, Newt, and you? One source: The Conservative Tree House has been right where Nate Silver and others were not-- basically since Trump's announcement last June.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Jun 4, 2016 22:04:34 GMT -5
![](http://syonidv.hodginsmedia.com/vsmileys/deadhorse.gif) Have fun discussing the electoral college with someone else. Hey I posted it "FWIW" knowing it is a subject only for those serious about a deeper understanding. Raw popular votes are so much easier than state by state analysis. One would have to take the time to see if Trump is drawing larger numbers in states that Obama won in 2012 before using it as proof of something significant. More voters in deep South primaries would be meaningless.
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Post by Opti on Jun 4, 2016 22:21:42 GMT -5
... i normally don't even cite them. i did in the case above because they were the ONLY outfit that did a national poll that week. Dancing to bad music is better than not dancing at all? ![](http://syonidv.hodginsmedia.com/vsmileys/charmed.png) Depends how bad the music is.
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AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Jun 4, 2016 22:57:39 GMT -5
![](http://syonidv.hodginsmedia.com/vsmileys/deadhorse.gif) Have fun discussing the electoral college with someone else. Hey I posted it "FWIW" knowing it is a subject only for those serious about a deeper understanding. Raw popular votes are so much easier than state by state analysis. One would have to take the time to see if Trump is drawing larger numbers in states that Obama won in 2012 before using it as proof of something significant. More voters in deep South primaries would be meaningless. I'm actually pretty well versed in the electoral college. If we use the past several elections- going back to George H.W. Bush's ill-fated 1992 campaign, roughly 2 million people in 7 counties decide elections. If you don't live in one of the 7 counties, the theory goes, you literally have no say in the outcome of the election. This election, I believe, will be different for reasons which I've already outlined: the traditional assumptions are out the window. Hillary Clinton is a terrible candidate- the worst. Trump already has her branded, and she's got no defense for it- nothing like a snappy comeback. Her latest speech touted as a real scorching of Trump was universally loved by Democrats, but Republicans and Independents were actually turned off by it in a Luntz focus group I watched this morning on Fox (sorry I can't find a link to it). The fact is that what I am observing now is dejavu. All of the reasons being trotted out which supposedly explain why Trump cannot possibly win the general election are a re-hash of the GOP primary predictions. All of which were wrong. What makes the GE predictions so egregious is that these are being made with numbers in hand. We know, for example, that with 9 primaries left to go, Donald Trump has more votes than any republican in a primary in history: 1.3 million more votes than Mitt Romney. Trump has gone from a 6.5% deficit a month ago in the RCP average to a 1.5% deficit- a statistical dead heat. Yeah, yeah-- national polls. Well: Clinton leads trump by 1.4% in OhioI could go on and bore you with the numbers from the other swing states. Here's the fun part: Right now, OREGON is a toss up. In fact, Oregon, Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Florida are all in the toss-up column. This is complicated by the fact that Crazy Bernie CLOBBERED Hillary Clinton in Oregon where Trump won big. Democrats just aren't all that excited this election cycle, and a LOT of Democrats-- especially disaffected African-Americans-- are actually drawn to Trump. In fact, the story of this election-- DO NOT DOUBT ME-- after the Trump landslide in November is how so many African-Americans turned to Trump. One Public Policy Polling report out of Ohio has some devastating news for Democrats: www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_OH_50216.pdfIn the swing state of Ohio, Trump would garner 15 percent of the African-American vote vs. Hillary Clinton. That is a massive 375% increase over the 4% of the black vote which went to Mitt Romney in 2012. Looks like Obama's commie " Green Jobs Czar" might be on to something...
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Jun 4, 2016 23:14:05 GMT -5
... Right now, OREGON is a toss up. ... This is complicated by the fact that Crazy Bernie CLOBBERED Hillary Clinton in Oregon where Trump won big. ... Clinton got more votes while being clobbered by Sanders than Trump got winning big: Oregon primary
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Politically_Incorrect12
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Post by Politically_Incorrect12 on Jun 5, 2016 8:42:53 GMT -5
When was the last time we had two presidential candidates that were under investigation for illegal activities? Trump for Trump U and Clinton for emails (of course I know that most of you on the left think it is no big deal and just all political and those on the far right believe the same thing about Trump U charges). There is something wrong when people care more about the D or R next to the name so much that nothing else matters. Also, is Sanders still in the race because the news about him has all but disappeared?
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