dondub
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Post by dondub on Mar 9, 2016 11:42:55 GMT -5
20% = not even remotely having a chance.
Plus, as you sate, it's candidate driven, meaning it's a one off like Perot. That's NOT a third party, just an outlier with ego and money.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 9, 2016 11:53:03 GMT -5
20% = not even remotely having a chance.
Plus, as you sate, it's candidate driven, meaning it's a one off like Perot. That's NOT a third party, just an outlier with ego and money. that is how 3rd parties are born. by a charismatic candidate that drives people into the new party. such a thing is far more likely in the day of the interweb, not less so.
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Mar 9, 2016 11:56:40 GMT -5
There was hardly a skid mark left after Perot so I will have to disagree. The web? All of those alleged libertarian coders and Ron Paul barely created a shadow at high noon.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 9, 2016 11:58:53 GMT -5
There was hardly a skid mark left after Perot so I will have to disagree. The web? All of those alleged libertarian coders and Ron Paul barely created a shadow at high noon. Paul didn't run third party. ok, are we finished yet?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 9, 2016 12:03:36 GMT -5
so, i will repeat what i said elsewhere, here.
if Trump and Clinton win more than (2) of these states (and they are projected to do so), i think they are going to be our nominees. Cruz and Sanders are too far behind to come back from a 75%+ drubbing next week.
so, hold on to your hats. here it comes.
edit: the polls were wildly wrong in Michigan, so Sanders probably has "about the same chance" as Cruz of upsetting the apple cart, on that basis. if you go ONLY by the polls, Sander's chance is ZERO, and the only states in play are Missouri and Ohio on the GOP side.
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Mar 9, 2016 12:17:54 GMT -5
Paul didn't run third party.
ok, are we finished yet?
I'm well aware of that but you mentioned the interweb. This is where there is a lot of alleged libertarian interest, which could build into a third party. Ron Paul obviously represents that element. I stand by my statement.
If you want to be, that's fine. I have made my point although it might sadden me that no third party will form and we will be stuck with the Repos and Demos for the rest of our lives.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 9, 2016 12:24:09 GMT -5
Paul didn't run third party.
ok, are we finished yet?
I'm well aware of that but you mentioned the interweb. This is where there is a lot of alleged libertarian interest, which could build into a third party. Ron Paul obviously represents that element. I stand by my statement.
If you want to be, that's fine. I have made my point although it might sadden me that no third party will form and we will be stuck with the Repos and Demos for the rest of our lives.
i guess that means "no"? the reason i am asking is that i have a busy day ahead of me, and i don't want to speculate about this any more. it will cause me to lose my sunny disposition.
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Mar 9, 2016 12:28:31 GMT -5
I said "If you want to be that's fine". That's a sort of yes isn't it? And what "sunny disposition"? I'm the one with the shades!
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Post by movingforward on Mar 9, 2016 12:29:17 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 9, 2016 12:34:40 GMT -5
I said "If you want to be that's fine". That's a sort of yes isn't it? And what "sunny disposition"? I'm the one with the shades! LOL!
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 9, 2016 12:36:50 GMT -5
it's not accurate. but Clinton has consistently polled ahead of Trump in HTH matchups. and furtermore, Trump is the weakest candidate against Clinton by a wide margin. Clinton should be happy about this matchup- but it scares me. i don't know how motivated the bigots will be in this election to beat Clinton.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 9, 2016 12:45:04 GMT -5
ok, one last post here on Rubio and Florida. i never thought he could win it, and i still don't. this one goes to Trump, and it is a (meaningless) battle for 2nd.
i would hope that Rubio has the sense to drop out and let Kasich play spoiler- but he might stay in, hoping he can get to the convention. if he does that, however, he risks getting Trump elected by stealing votes from Cruz. i think if he loses, and he probably will, he should drop out. i have said it before, but i am saying it one last time.
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Post by Tennesseer on Mar 9, 2016 13:27:06 GMT -5
so, i will repeat what i said elsewhere, here. if Trump and Clinton win more than (2) of these states (and they are projected to do so), i think they are going to be our nominees. Cruz and Sanders are too far behind to come back from a 75%+ drubbing next week. so, hold on to your hats. here it comes. edit: the polls were wildly wrong in Michigan, so Sanders probably has "about the same chance" as Cruz of upsetting the apple cart, on that basis. if you go ONLY by the polls, Sander's chance is ZERO, and the only states in play are Missouri and Ohio on the GOP side. Not sure how they calculated it, but ABC evening news (yesterday) and Good Morning America (this morning) stated Sanders would have to win all the remaining state primaries and caucuses by 10% or more to get enough delegates to win the Democratic party nomination.
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Post by billisonboard on Mar 9, 2016 21:10:14 GMT -5
... i would hope that Rubio has the sense to drop out and let Kasich play spoiler- but he might stay in, hoping he can get to the convention. ... Is there a rule that he has to be "in" to be considered by a contested convention? Dropping out sooner would mean he didn't have the losses. Might be a good 27th ballot compromise.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 9, 2016 22:57:11 GMT -5
so, i will repeat what i said elsewhere, here. if Trump and Clinton win more than (2) of these states (and they are projected to do so), i think they are going to be our nominees. Cruz and Sanders are too far behind to come back from a 75%+ drubbing next week. so, hold on to your hats. here it comes. edit: the polls were wildly wrong in Michigan, so Sanders probably has "about the same chance" as Cruz of upsetting the apple cart, on that basis. if you go ONLY by the polls, Sander's chance is ZERO, and the only states in play are Missouri and Ohio on the GOP side. Not sure how they calculated it, but ABC evening news (yesterday) and Good Morning America (this morning) stated Sanders would have to win all the remaining state primaries and caucuses by 10% or more to get enough delegates to win the Democratic party nomination. i think that is accurate. and if he loses all of the ones on the 15th, i think it is more like 20%, which means he is history. when Sanders has managed to win, it is by less than 10%, with, i think, ONE exception: VT.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 9, 2016 22:57:57 GMT -5
... i would hope that Rubio has the sense to drop out and let Kasich play spoiler- but he might stay in, hoping he can get to the convention. ... Is there a rule that he has to be "in" to be considered by a contested convention? Dropping out sooner would mean he didn't have the losses. Might be a good 27th ballot compromise. nope. you don't even need to be a candidate. Mitt Romney could be the nominee, if it goes to convention.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 10, 2016 1:18:26 GMT -5
i am still rating Clinton as the heavy favourite in all four contests next Tuesday.
the odds are changing a bit with Trump.
i think he is still 2:1 favourite to win IL, but...........
he is a 5:1 favourite to win FL. Rubio is collapsing there, and Cruz is still not competitive. kind of a disaster for the GOP, imo. Rubio has also collapsed in NC. i had him at 1:3 a week ago, now he is below Cruz, who is 1:4. Trump is a 7:3 favourite to win it now. the only place he is losing ground is Ohio. Kasich is now a 7:3 favourite there, and getting stronger by the day.
Rubio should abandon FL, where he has no chance at all, and focus on IL, where he has a chance. Kasich should also focus on IL. Cruz should work FL and NC.
i think Cruz has an outside chance in NC.
i think that Rubio, Cruz and Kasich all have a chance to take out Trump in IL. he is not polling well there. that will be the most interesting state, if there is one.
summary......
Trump is going to win FL, imo. Rubio is cratering, but even if he weren't- he is just not catching fire there. Cruz is too late to the game to win.
Trumps lead in NC, IL and MO is less than 10%, so he could win them all, lose them all, or split them (polling is non-existent in MO).
footnote: if Trump's lead in the polls this weekend is what it is today, he is going to win NC and IL, but i think Cruz might win MO.
Trump is going to lose OH. Kasich has always been close here, if not in the lead, and the fact that he is still in it, and competing, winning delegates, and the only moderate left in the race means that he wins his home state, imo.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 10, 2016 10:55:47 GMT -5
i think that is accurate. and if he loses all of the ones on the 15th, i think it is more like 20%, which means he is history. when Sanders has managed to win, it is by less than 10%, with, i think, ONE exception: VT. At least two... he crushed her in Maine. Of course these are both small states, and his only large state win has been Michigan.
....which he won by less than 10%.....
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Mar 10, 2016 13:15:11 GMT -5
Looks like people are coming around to the idea that it's "Cruz or Lose" for the GOP. Won't be enough to win Florida, though. Looks like Kasich is going to deny Trump OH delegates- up 6% right now. Still, here's the reality: Trump will have the nomination sewn up this week.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 10, 2016 14:24:34 GMT -5
Looks like people are coming around to the idea that it's "Cruz or Lose" for the GOP. Won't be enough to win Florida, though. Looks like Kasich is going to deny Trump OH delegates- up 6% right now. Still, here's the reality: Trump will have the nomination sewn up this week. actually, if he loses BOTH MO AND OH, he will be behind pace for the nomination, Paul.
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Post by billisonboard on Mar 10, 2016 15:52:54 GMT -5
Looks like people are coming around to the idea that it's "Cruz or Lose" for the GOP. ... The implication that the nomination of Cruz would result in a win for the GOP would be an interesting one to test.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 10, 2016 18:03:15 GMT -5
....which he won by less than 10%..... I'm not understanding your math?
He won like about 64% to 34%. That is far more than 10% by my reckoning. Are you figuring total electoral or something?
i was talking about Michigan, dem.
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Mar 10, 2016 20:27:32 GMT -5
Looks like people are coming around to the idea that it's "Cruz or Lose" for the GOP. Won't be enough to win Florida, though. Looks like Kasich is going to deny Trump OH delegates- up 6% right now. Still, here's the reality: Trump will have the nomination sewn up this week. actually, if he loses BOTH MO AND OH, he will be behind pace for the nomination, Paul. I can see him losing OH, do you have a MO poll that shows him behind?
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 10, 2016 22:44:59 GMT -5
actually, if he loses BOTH MO AND OH, he will be behind pace for the nomination, Paul. I can see him losing OH, do you have a MO poll that shows him behind? nope. but here is my reasoning. it is threefold. 1) the last poll is from AUGUST. this is too old to say anything 2) Cruz is kinda on a roll- particularly out of the Deep South and NE 3) Cruz has won two neighboring states now, it is true that Trump has also won two neighboring states, but i really think he has lost momentum at this point. could he regain it? sure. absolutely. but not before the 15th, imo. edit: my turn- why is Cruz doing so poorly in FL?
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Post by fishy999 on Mar 10, 2016 23:46:10 GMT -5
Looks like people are coming around to the idea that it's "Cruz or Lose" for the GOP. Won't be enough to win Florida, though. Looks like Kasich is going to deny Trump OH delegates- up 6% right now. Still, here's the reality: Trump will have the nomination sewn up this week. And a general election rout sewn up as well But we will see on FL- Rubio won the debate hands down by doing what he should have been doing from the start- ignoring anything captain idiot says, refuse to engage captain idiot, and stick to policy like Kasich does.
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Post by tallguy on Mar 11, 2016 1:46:58 GMT -5
Frankly, I think women are by and large better at the art of politics than men. they are certainly better at diplomacy, which is hopeful, if you are anti-war, like me.
If women ran the world there wouldn't be any wars. But every 28 days there would be some INTENSE negotiations! -- Robin Williams
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 11, 2016 11:43:50 GMT -5
two more polls show Trump up 20%+ in FL and one more shows him +6%. he is still the heavy favourite, but with some uncertainty.
Clinton just got a +45% poll in FL. no indication that Michigan cost her anything.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 14, 2016 10:56:48 GMT -5
the odds haven't changed much, except in IL.
Sanders and Cruz are doing better in IL and COULD make it interesting. Clinton and Trump are still favored to win, however.
still no or poor polling data in MO. impossible to predict what might happen there.
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Post by marvholly on Mar 15, 2016 5:46:14 GMT -5
I am in IL.
I am SOO glad our primary is today. I have had it w/all the airing of the SAME political ads constantly on tv. I have had it w/the robo political phone calls. It is MY phone. I pay for it. It is for MY use.
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Post by djAdvocate on Mar 15, 2016 10:23:28 GMT -5
Cruz and Kasich are both +3% in the last (2) weeks in FL- but that changes nothing. Trump wins FL, imo.
OH is almost definitely going to Kasich.
MO and IL are more up for grabs than the other three.
NC goes to Trump.
i am notching down the Clinton Sweeps probability. she is in for a fight in MO and IL.
Sanders has made it a lot more interesting than i expected.
she is also showing only 8% up in OH. so, Sanders is also in striking distance, there.
this will probably go very much the same for both Trump and Clinton, again- which is a pattern from last week.
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