2016 Republican Nomination

[Value Buy]

It will be interesting how the terror attack in California plays out in the Republican race.
Carson sh/be crushed now.
Trump, Rubio and Cruz should gain strength.

[djAdvocate]

Dec 4, 2015 13:36:18 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

It will be interesting how the terror attack in California plays out in the Republican race.
Carson sh/be crushed now.
Trump, Rubio and Cruz should gain strength.

i don't know how to choose between those three on "terrorism".

[marvholly]

I suspect anyone's view on terrorism except maybe HC's are subject to MAJOR change if actually elected to the WH & fully briefed, even Rubio & cruz who get some level of info but I MUCH doubt all info.

[djAdvocate]

this is going to start mattering pretty soon:

www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_rubio_vs_clinton-3767.html

[djAdvocate]

Dec 5, 2015 18:02:13 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

Yeah, that's been my thought for a while dj. Rubio is probably Hillary's worst scenario.

Will it matter to the GOP?

And will Rubio grow more mature regarding Iran? (ie- stop pledging to invade it on day one.)

it clearly doesn't matter to Paul.  the question then becomes: how common is Paul in the GOP?

i honestly don't know.

[Opti]

Dec 5, 2015 6:43:45 GMT -5 marvholly said:

I suspect anyone's view on terrorism except maybe HC's are subject to MAJOR change if actually elected to the WH & fully briefed, even Rubio & cruz who get some level of info but I MUCH doubt all info.

I think that is true. Or I think to think that's true? Obama's intentions pre-briefing appears to go with his campaign promises. Post briefing it was like getting a young W with a slightly different style but now almost unified on the approach most Obama voters voted to tear down, pull back, and importantly stop wasting lives and equipment. 

[Value Buy]

Latest CNN POLL.
Trump at 36%

www.cnn.com/2015/12/04/politics/donald-trump-poll-cnn-orc-national/

[djAdvocate]

Dec 6, 2015 15:35:37 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Latest CNN POLL.
Trump at 36%

www.cnn.com/2015/12/04/politics/donald-trump-poll-cnn-orc-national/

post 32 included this poll.  just fyi.  and i commented on it in the trump thread when it came out.

i said something like "ok, i am taking him seriously now" (edit: post 1525).

[Value Buy]

Dec 6, 2015 18:08:00 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Dec 6, 2015 15:35:37 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Latest CNN POLL.
Trump at 36%

www.cnn.com/2015/12/04/politics/donald-trump-poll-cnn-orc-national/

post 32 included this poll.  just fyi.  and i commented on it in the trump thread when it came out.

i said something like "ok, i am taking him seriously now".

Okay, but it is kind of hard to know that when the poll is not referenced in your post.
I posted it here because it is a different thread, and this thread is the latest and probably best thread about the Republican nomination race.

[djAdvocate]

Dec 6, 2015 18:13:03 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Dec 6, 2015 18:08:00 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

post 32 included this poll.  just fyi.  and i commented on it in the trump thread when it came out.

i said something like "ok, i am taking him seriously now".

Okay, but it is kind of hard to know that when the poll is not referenced in your post.
I posted it here because it is a different thread, and this thread is the latest and probably best thread about the Republican nomination race.

wait- did i not post it in the OP?  let me check.  if not, i will edit it.

[Value Buy]

Not in post 32
You have data, but no source.
I thought you might be mixing several polls again, so I was not concerned about it.

[djAdvocate]

note to the board: i didn't think it could get any worse for Jeb, but it has.

he got 3% in the last survey, his worst result since polling for the 2016 race started over two years ago.

[djAdvocate]

Dec 6, 2015 18:15:41 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Not in post 32
You have data, but no source.
I thought you might be mixing several polls again, so I was not concerned about it.

i always use the same aggregate.  it is now listed in the OP.  thanks for pointing out it was missing.

[Value Buy]

Dec 6, 2015 18:17:09 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

note to the board: i didn't think it could get any worse for Jeb, but it has.

he got 3% in the last survey, his worst result since polling for the 2016 race started over two years ago.

Totally agree.
He was on one network today after Hillary had the first 15 minutes of soft, hit it out of the park questions for her.

He really was not hardballed either, and he could not look better than Hillary did, while she continued to laugh hysterically at Republican candidates 

[Value Buy]

dj, for future reference, will newer polls be listed in the continuation of the thread, or in the first post?
It would seem better to post as we go along.
I only say this because you thought you listed in post #32, but you added it to post #1

[djAdvocate]

Dec 6, 2015 18:24:23 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

dj, for future reference, will newer polls be listed in the continuation of the thread, or in the first post?
It would seem better to post as we go along.
I only say this because you thought you listed in post #32, but you added it to post #1

the link updates automatically.  it is not date specific.  but good question. 

[Peace Of Mind]

Nov 22, 2015 14:05:35 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

two new surveys are out, and they both show the same thing- Trump up by double digits, again (note- from this point forward, i will post the lead over the next competitor):

Trump + 8% - all alone in first place. clear front runner, and his best numbers since his September peak.

Carson + 7% - all alone in second place. his latest two surveys were lower- but not sharply. he is polling at appx 20%, down from appx 25% in October.

Rubio + 1% - he and Cruz continue to bring up the third tier. Rubio is polling at his best level since May.

Cruz + 6% - Cruz is on fire. he is now at his best level in nearly TWO YEARS. you read that right. two years. he is only 1% below his high of 12.3% set in October of 2013.

there are six other candidates in the race that are polling from 2-6%.  i suspect that several will drop out, which would put another 20% on the table for Cruz and Rubio, but i don't know who it is going to be, nor can i reasonably predict that it will be any.  here are the six:

Bush

Fiorina

Huckabee

Christie

Kasich

Paul

if Rubio and Cruz were to split that vote, we would have a very real four way race, with all four candidates getting 20-30%.

Ummm, could you please put in better candidates on this list?  TYIA.  I would help but can't think of anybody that is dumb enough to run.    

[djAdvocate]

Dec 6, 2015 23:01:14 GMT -5 Peace Of Mind said:

Nov 22, 2015 14:05:35 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

two new surveys are out, and they both show the same thing- Trump up by double digits, again (note- from this point forward, i will post the lead over the next competitor):

Trump + 8% - all alone in first place. clear front runner, and his best numbers since his September peak.

Carson + 7% - all alone in second place. his latest two surveys were lower- but not sharply. he is polling at appx 20%, down from appx 25% in October.

Rubio + 1% - he and Cruz continue to bring up the third tier. Rubio is polling at his best level since May.

Cruz + 6% - Cruz is on fire. he is now at his best level in nearly TWO YEARS. you read that right. two years. he is only 1% below his high of 12.3% set in October of 2013.

there are six other candidates in the race that are polling from 2-6%.  i suspect that several will drop out, which would put another 20% on the table for Cruz and Rubio, but i don't know who it is going to be, nor can i reasonably predict that it will be any.  here are the six:

Bush

Fiorina

Huckabee

Christie

Kasich

Paul

if Rubio and Cruz were to split that vote, we would have a very real four way race, with all four candidates getting 20-30%.

Ummm, could you please put in better candidates on this list?  TYIA.  I would help but can't think of anybody that is dumb enough to run.    

sorry, but everyone who is even remotely centrist and normal either stayed out of this one, or is running so far behind as to make them non-entities.

[Value Buy]

Well, Bush is sorta centrist,,,,,,,,,,,

[djAdvocate]

Dec 7, 2015 7:27:14 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Well, Bush is sorta centrist,,,,,,,,,,,

precisely.  and he is no longer in the race, imo.

[djAdvocate]

fresh new poll out by IBD.  update below:

Trump +14: still wildly in the lead, but below 30% on average again

Carson +1: still in 2nd, but barely......

Cruz +1: now in 3rd. 

Rubio +10: has widened his lead on Bush, and at his highest polling level of the campaign.

basically, this poll shows Trump alone in first, and a 3-way tie for 2nd.

note: in the last four surveys, Pataki, Santorum and Graham have polled zero%.  WHY ARE THEY STILL RUNNING?

[djAdvocate]

commentary about polling: silly season is almost over.  people start to seriously consider candidates from this point forward. 

the polling numbers to date have been pretty soft.  for example, in NH, less than 20% of voters have made up their minds.

that will change, as early primary voters will spend time over the holidays considering their vote.

we will see what emerges in the next few weeks.

should be interesting.

[billisonboard]

Dec 7, 2015 12:42:16 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

...

note: in the last four surveys, Pataki, Santorum and Graham have polled zero%.  WHY ARE THEY STILL RUNNING?

Really!     They need to get a life.

Yeah, said by someone who hangs out on a message board all day

[djAdvocate]

SILLY SEASON SCORECARD

i decided to review the last two month's poll movement for the top SIX contenders.  here is the evaluation:

Contender    Poll Move    Grade
Trump            +5                B+
Carson            +0               C
Fiorina            -8                 F
Bush                -6                D-
Rubio                +5              B+
Cruz                +8               A


Cruz has the best momentum right now- but unfortunately for him, Rubio and Trump are not doing much worse, and they lead him.
Bush and Fiorina are toast, imo.  i strongly dislike both of them, so that is fine by me. 

edit: at this pace, it would take Cruz 10 months to catch up.  he doesn't have it.
edit2: if Bush and Fiorina had done what Cruz and Rubio did, they would be tied for 2nd right now.
it is as much their failure to win people over as anything that has put this race where it is today.
edit3: i just thought of something.  as much as Trump is disliked, i think it will be very easy for a
challenger to beat him.  once a challenger gets CLOSE, the haters will jump ship and support him.

[djAdvocate]

very good result for Cruz in Iowa.

www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html

edit: i think he is peaking a bit early, but not a whole lot.  he might conceivably win this state.

[billisonboard]

Dec 7, 2015 15:58:26 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

very good result for Cruz in Iowa.

www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html

edit: i think he is peaking a bit early, but not a whole lot.  he might conceivably win this state.

"Ted, I have good news and bad news. The good news is you might win Iowa. The bad news is it doesn't really matter that much based on who has won it in the past."

[djAdvocate]

Dec 7, 2015 16:19:50 GMT -5 billisonboard said:

Dec 7, 2015 15:58:26 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

very good result for Cruz in Iowa.

www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html

edit: i think he is peaking a bit early, but not a whole lot.  he might conceivably win this state.

"Ted, I have good news and bad news. The good news is you might win Iowa. The bad news is it doesn't really matter that much based on who has won it in the past."

utterly true, but on the other hand- i would like this aura of invincibility to vanish for at least a brief period of time.

Trump is likely to win NH, though Cruz has gone from 9th to 3rd in that state in the time that Trump has lead there.

[djAdvocate]

Trump +15

Cruz +0

Carson +1

Rubio +11

a few posts back i predicted this moment around mid-december.  it happened a week early.

so, right now, we have Trump up 15%, and three others tied for second.  from here, it is anyone's guess, but since there is more than 40% of the vote in the second tier, the votes are there to topple Trump. 

the prevailing view is that he is unstoppable, but clearly he is doing just about everything he can to stop himself from winning.    so, we shall see.

speaking for myself, this is a very troublesome read on the state of American politics.

edit: congratulations to Paul for picking the #2 candidate.  i never thought i would hear myself saying this, but i am genuinely rooting for Cruz right now.

edit2: i just noticed something about the polling over the last MONTH.  Carson has lost 10% during that stretch.  Cruz is up 5%, Rubio is up 3%, but TRUMP is up 5%, also (the other 3% came from Bush, who no longer has 3% to give).  it seems like some of the soft Trump support went to Carson and back to Trump.  the question is whether he can extend beyond Carson's losses.  assuming Carson goes the Fiorina route (i think it VERY likely), here is where we go from here:

Trump: 35%
Cruz: 20%
Rubio: 18%

so, one way or another, Cruz and Rubio are going to have to go after Trump's support.  i think Rubio's path is easier, personally, because there is way more daylight between him and Trump.  even Paul has said so.    that means denouncing the demagoguery and neo-fascism.  shouldn't be much of a stretch. 

[djAdvocate]

even those of you that LIKE Trump have to admit he is a demagogue.  i have never seen his equal in that respect in a major candidate.

[djAdvocate]

interesting perspective.  not sure i agree, but i am thinking about it:

www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/12/08/dems_victory_plan_paint_the_gop_trump.html