djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 11, 2015 14:07:59 GMT -5
surprised there are no thread on this given the 8:1 posting advantage by "leftists". Hillary had a commanding 50% lead through July, but since then, has been getting a decent challenge from Sanders, who is either leading or close to her in a few states at this point. Hillary continues to lead nationally by a commanding 17%, and appears to have stabilized at that level. since August, the dynamic has changed. Sanders topped out at approximately 25% nationally, and has failed to move beyond that. however, speculation about Biden has continued to eat into Clinton's numbers. she has fallen ANOTHER 5% since August, and every bit of that went to Biden, who now stands solidly in 3rd. i expect him to announce before November. the remainder of the field is polling at approximately 2%, and does not receive mention, here. if Biden does NOT run, i suspect the numbers for Clinton will bounce back up 5-10%, and the other candidates will split the rest. if he DOES run, i suspect he will continue to eat into Clinton's support, and make it interesting for her. i do NOT suspect that Clinton has much to worry about in Sanders. but i think she would be very wise to adopt some of his positions (she already has).
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 11, 2015 14:19:23 GMT -5
update: the CBS poll, just conducted, was Clinton's second best national poll result SINCE AUGUST.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2015 14:21:37 GMT -5
Debate this week. We shall see
Bernie's ground game isn't as good as Obamas was though, that I can see.
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Robert not Bobby
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Post by Robert not Bobby on Oct 11, 2015 14:40:10 GMT -5
I think Sanders, and I like the guy, appeals to a frustrated left wing flank of the Democrats and, honestly, he doesn't have a chance. In some ways he is the Donald of the Dems...a perceived outsider even though he has been a politician all his life. A Jewish New York born socialist democrat...how will that play in Iowa in a general election?
Hillary, I've never liked. Yes I know, the whole email and Benghazi things have been so politicized, I don't believe anything about them any more...she has been targeted.
Joe is my man. I know he has had tremendous tragedy in his life, and maybe he is not up to it. If he doesn't run, I'm staying home...and then I won't be able to bitch about the president that I didn't help elect.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2015 15:05:50 GMT -5
I would never have thought Bernie had a chance. But this year, it seems like anything goes... we shall see. There were certainly people who said Obama didn't have a change at this point. And one of the negative outcomes of the Republicans telling everyone that ALL democrats (and some republicans) are socialist liberal radicals... is that when one actually shows up, its hard to differentiate...
I really don't think Biden will run. Who else is running? Seriously. I told husband there was a debate this week and he was like... between who?
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Robert not Bobby
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Post by Robert not Bobby on Oct 11, 2015 15:24:25 GMT -5
Martin O'Malley.
I know, who?
He was the governor of Maryland. But I hear you, no real national profile.
This is why the Republican dog and pony show is so much more interesting.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 11, 2015 15:50:24 GMT -5
I see Jim Webb is also debating, and someone named Lincoln Chaffee?
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b2r
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Post by b2r on Oct 11, 2015 15:58:57 GMT -5
I tried to get a head by going to school as well...
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Robert not Bobby
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Post by Robert not Bobby on Oct 11, 2015 16:06:04 GMT -5
Well, Deez Nuts, is also running. If Joe doesn't get in the race, Deez Nuts may get my vote.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 11, 2015 16:07:07 GMT -5
I think Sanders, and I like the guy, appeals to a frustrated left wing flank of the Democrats and, honestly, he doesn't have a chance. In some ways he is the Donald of the Dems...a perceived outsider even though he has been a politician all his life. A Jewish New York born socialist democrat...how will that play in Iowa in a general election? Hillary, I've never liked. Yes I know, the whole email and Benghazi things have been so politicized, I don't believe anything about them any more...she has been targeted. Joe is my man. I know he has had tremendous tragedy in his life, and maybe he is not up to it. If he doesn't run, I'm staying home...and then I won't be able to bitch about the president that I didn't help elect. Robert- don't stay home. find a third party candidate you like and VOTE. PLEASE.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 11, 2015 16:08:44 GMT -5
I would never have thought Bernie had a chance. But this year, it seems like anything goes... we shall see. There were certainly people who said Obama didn't have a change at this point. And one of the negative outcomes of the Republicans telling everyone that ALL democrats (and some republicans) are socialist liberal radicals... is that when one actually shows up, its hard to differentiate...
I really don't think Biden will run. Who else is running? Seriously. I told husband there was a debate this week and he was like... between who?
anyone who didn't think Obama had a chance at this point was nuts, imo. i know- i heard them too. did i think he would be elected? no, actually. i didn't. but it turned out America was more color blind than i thought, and that is a good thing.
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Robert not Bobby
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Post by Robert not Bobby on Oct 11, 2015 16:29:59 GMT -5
I think Sanders, and I like the guy, appeals to a frustrated left wing flank of the Democrats and, honestly, he doesn't have a chance. In some ways he is the Donald of the Dems...a perceived outsider even though he has been a politician all his life. A Jewish New York born socialist democrat...how will that play in Iowa in a general election? Hillary, I've never liked. Yes I know, the whole email and Benghazi things have been so politicized, I don't believe anything about them any more...she has been targeted. Joe is my man. I know he has had tremendous tragedy in his life, and maybe he is not up to it. If he doesn't run, I'm staying home...and then I won't be able to bitch about the president that I didn't help elect. Robert- don't stay home. find a third party candidate you like and VOTE. PLEASE. DJ Of course I will vote. Be well...time for me to do other things.
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kadee79
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Post by kadee79 on Oct 11, 2015 16:35:56 GMT -5
Robert- don't stay home. find a third party candidate you like and VOTE. PLEASE. DJ Of course I will vote. Be well...time for me to do other things. If nothing else, do like my DH does....when he doesn't like anyone who is running for any office, he writes his own name in & votes for himself. I told him one of these days he is going to elect himself to something!
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b2r
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Post by b2r on Oct 11, 2015 16:37:17 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 11, 2015 16:42:41 GMT -5
DJ Of course I will vote. Be well...time for me to do other things. If nothing else, do like my DH does....when he doesn't like anyone who is running for any office, he writes his own name in & votes for himself. I told him one of these days he is going to elect himself to something! i would do that if i felt i was a better candidate than any other out there. but there are literally HUNDREDS running. surely we can do better than ME.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Oct 11, 2015 17:01:32 GMT -5
I see Jim Webb is also debating, and someone named Lincoln Chaffee? Former U.S. senator and governor of Rhode Island.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Oct 11, 2015 17:09:49 GMT -5
By the way on Chaffee:
Political party Republican (1999–2007) Independent (2007–2013) Democratic (2013–present)
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 11, 2015 17:23:00 GMT -5
if memory serves, Chafee's dad was in politics, as well.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Oct 11, 2015 17:59:53 GMT -5
if memory serves, Chafee's dad was in politics, as well. Your memory serves you well. His dad was John Chaffee. Old New England family. "He (John Chaffee) served as an officer in the United States Marine Corps, as the 66th Governor of Rhode Island, as the Secretary of the Navy, and as a United States Senator. (John) Chafee was born in Providence, Rhode Island, the son of Virginia (née Coates) and John Chafee.[7] Chafee's great-great-grandfather, Henry Lippitt, was Governor of Rhode Island. Among his great-great-uncles are Rhode Island Governor Charles Warren Lippitt and United States Senator Henry Frederick Lippitt. His great-uncle, Zechariah Chafee, was a Harvard law professor and a notable civil libertarian. The Chafee family was among the earliest settlers of Hingham, Massachusetts, before moving south to Rhode Island.[8] On his mother's side, his great-grandfather, George de Forest Brush, was a prolific painter in the American Renaissance." John Chaffee
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Shooby
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Post by Shooby on Oct 11, 2015 18:12:03 GMT -5
They are all a giant joke, lol.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 11, 2015 18:17:32 GMT -5
They are all a giant joke, lol. really? what don't you like about Chaffee? be specific.
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Tennesseer
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Post by Tennesseer on Oct 11, 2015 18:28:18 GMT -5
They are all a giant joke, lol. really? what don't you like about Chaffee? be specific. He's not from a town in Pennsylvania where dancing and music have been banned by the church and local school board, both presided over by their local Mrs. Betty Bowers.
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Shooby
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Post by Shooby on Oct 11, 2015 18:31:18 GMT -5
Cant wait to watch the circus though. Got popcorn.
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dondub
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Post by dondub on Oct 11, 2015 18:44:22 GMT -5
Shooby,
Please provide a list of those attributes which you believe would make for a non joke candidate. I have popcorn too.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 11, 2015 19:11:20 GMT -5
sigh.
i fucking hate the status of political debate in this country.
for the record, i think most of the GOP candidates are serious men and Carly with serious proposals.
and then there are people who seem to just be throwing shit against the wall and seeing if it sticks.
i can say what i like and don't like about Trump, Clinton, Carson, Fiorina, Huckabee, Santorum, Sanders, Bush and anyone else that i bring up for criticism. is it really asking a lot for others to do so?
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cael
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Post by cael on Oct 11, 2015 19:13:44 GMT -5
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Oct 12, 2015 9:56:39 GMT -5
I think Sanders, and I like the guy, appeals to a frustrated left wing flank of the Democrats and, honestly, he doesn't have a chance. In some ways he is the Donald of the Dems...a perceived outsider even though he has been a politician all his life. A Jewish New York born socialist democrat...how will that play in Iowa in a general election?Hillary, I've never liked. Yes I know, the whole email and Benghazi things have been so politicized, I don't believe anything about them any more...she has been targeted. Joe is my man. I know he has had tremendous tragedy in his life, and maybe he is not up to it. If he doesn't run, I'm staying home...and then I won't be able to bitch about the president that I didn't help elect. Actually he's doing surprisingly well in the middle of the country with young adults. I saw a talking head who attributed this to 1) Bernie's stance on student loans, and 2) young adults seem to be partial to old farts. I also like old farts and I admire someone who dares to go into a staunch opposition enclave like a conservative, Christian university to speak (this in stark contrast to Hillary, who carefully screens her audiences to make sure they will be friendly). I also really admire his vow not to take special interest money. However, I'm fiscally conservative, and he hasn't explained how he will fund his trillions of dollars of proposals, and I think this will sink him in the end. Not a fan of Hillary. On the fence about Biden.
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Value Buy
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Post by Value Buy on Oct 12, 2015 20:22:33 GMT -5
So far, pundits say Hillary gets hurt by Joe if he enters the race. I think Joe hurts Sanders poll numbers if he comes in. Many people backing Sanders are simply looking for an alternative to Hillary, and Sanders right now, fits the bill. Sanders would fall to a distant third, losing support to Biden, and then Biden pulls another 5% from Hillary, but not enough to beat her.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Oct 13, 2015 2:29:57 GMT -5
i think that Joe's candidacy would doom Sanders. it might doom Clinton's, as well, depending on how things go.
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marvholly
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Post by marvholly on Oct 13, 2015 5:17:06 GMT -5
living in metro Chicago I have a tough call tonight:
Cubs game Democratic debate NCIS (my usual choice)
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