billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 5, 2014 11:29:26 GMT -5
... Independents keep pushing forward, and running candidates. ... How do Independents run candidates? and, yes dj, I know you can explain it away.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 5, 2014 11:30:17 GMT -5
Here is an absolute correct prediction, Two more years of political corruption, political games. wasted money, and resources. Just more of the same, different party. No great leadership anywhere in sight. actually, the last two years have been an entrenched GOP unwilling to even entertain legislation. the next two years will be quite different from that. they will be entertaining legislation that has no chance of passing.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 5, 2014 11:31:20 GMT -5
... Independents keep pushing forward, and running candidates. ... How do Independents run candidates? and, yes dj, I know you can explain it away. sure. there is an Independent PARTY in many states. states that don't have one, can run non-partisan candidates. the Governor of Alaska (he appears to have won) is a good example.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 5, 2014 11:44:49 GMT -5
How do Independents run candidates? and, yes dj, I know you can explain it away. sure. there is an Independent PARTY in many states. states that don't have one, can run non-partisan candidates. the Governor of Alaska (he appears to have won) is a good example. Our county judge (president) race had a former judge (Democrat) running as an independent. He turned out to be a huge fascist and the Dems wanted nothing to do with him. He lost by a big margin to the Republican incumbent. Good call by the local Dems. If you can't field a possible winner, best to stay out. (For now) I believe Cotton(R) won the Senate race by a good margin.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Nov 5, 2014 11:50:22 GMT -5
This would be awesome, if it happened.
The fiscally conservative, socially liberal, common sense party.
they would get my vote.
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happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Nov 5, 2014 11:58:29 GMT -5
So pleased to see Jody Hice won a seat in Congress from the 10th district in my fair state of GA.
I always aspire to be a resident of the state with the most nut job congressperson.
Hates gays, thinks Islam isn't 'really' a religion and shouldn't be allowed to be practised in the US, think abortions are worse than what Hitler did, and thinks woman should be allowed to run for office "if the woman is in the authority of her husband."
Very surprising that the 10th contains the big college town of Athens, but the area got gerrymandered in the 2005 redistricting and the republicans added in enough rural area to dilute the Athens influence to the point the 10th can run idiots like Hice and win.
Looking forward to seeing Hice run his mouth on the news over the tag 'congressman from Georgia' and wincing every time.
Seriously, not every person living in Georgia has a head full of boiled peanuts.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 5, 2014 12:20:06 GMT -5
How do Independents run candidates? and, yes dj, I know you can explain it away. sure. there is an Independent PARTY in many states. states that don't have one, can run non-partisan candidates. the Governor of Alaska (he appears to have won) is a good example. There is a party that labels itself Independent but it is made up of party members, not independents. In 2013, Walker announced his intention to run in the 2014 gubernatorial election as a Republican.[8] Later in the year, he decided instead to run as an nonpartisan candidate ... en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Walker_(American_politician)#2014_election Note that he decided, no one ran him.
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Nov 5, 2014 13:02:39 GMT -5
So, what's the damage? Is there a good nonpartisan article anyone knows of that points out? - the overall outcome
- the outcomes of closely contested races
- the reactions of the White House and Republican leadership
A link would be most appreciated. Thanks in advance.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 5, 2014 13:03:18 GMT -5
So pleased to see Jody Hice won a seat in Congress from the 10th district in my fair state of GA. I always aspire to be a resident of the state with the most nut job congressperson. Hates gays, thinks Islam isn't 'really' a religion and shouldn't be allowed to be practised in the US, think abortions are worse than what Hitler did, and thinks woman should be allowed to run for office "if the woman is in the authority of her husband." Very surprising that the 10th contains the big college town of Athens, but the area got gerrymandered in the 2005 redistricting and the republicans added in enough rural area to dilute the Athens influence to the point the 10th can run idiots like Hice and win. Looking forward to seeing Hice run his mouth on the news over the tag 'congressman from Georgia' and wincing every time. Seriously, not every person living in Georgia has a head full of boiled peanuts. i think i just threw up a little.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 5, 2014 13:03:47 GMT -5
So, what's the damage? Is there a good nonpartisan article anyone knows of that points out? - the overall outcome
- the outcomes of closely contested races
- the reactions of the White House and Republican leadership
A link would be most appreciated. Thanks in advance. just read my posts. they are good and non partisan.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 5, 2014 13:04:44 GMT -5
This would be awesome, if it happened. The fiscally conservative, socially liberal, common sense party. they would get my vote. it would get enough votes to be a serious contender, imo.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 5, 2014 13:05:32 GMT -5
sure. there is an Independent PARTY in many states. states that don't have one, can run non-partisan candidates. the Governor of Alaska (he appears to have won) is a good example. Our county judge (president) race had a former judge (Democrat) running as an independent. He turned out to be a huge fascist and the Dems wanted nothing to do with him. He lost by a big margin to the Republican incumbent. Good call by the local Dems. If you can't field a possible winner, best to stay out. (For now) I believe Cotton(R) won the Senate race by a good margin. last i looked, it was about 14%?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 5, 2014 13:07:10 GMT -5
thanks, dem. i TRIED to stay on top of it. i missed a bit on this one tho. as much as i felt the GOP would do well in this election, they did about 3% better. for example, i NEVER expected Virginia to be competitive. Warner was expected to win by 10% there. i thought Hagan would win by 1-2%. i thought Orman would win Kansas. none of those races produced the results i thought, and on every occasion, it was the GOP that outperformed. i can't think of a single GOOD surprise for Democrats, and i can think of a handful of bad ones. in short, this was a SURPRISINGLY good year to run as a GOP candidate. hell, our team even got THREE NEW REPS from CA, which is kindof amazing all on it's own (one was a total surprise). Well you did pretty well, certainly put up against the "pros" who also saw none of that. You saw the trends, but just couldn't see the height of the wave.
I wish would had some local VA feedback here on Warner- that surprises the heck out of me too.
Democrats should be rightly freaked out about that race. that was about 9 points too close.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 5, 2014 13:18:12 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 5, 2014 13:32:53 GMT -5
did you read my posts, Virgil. seriously. i thought i did a nice NON-PARTISAN job of summarizing. didn't you?
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Virgil Showlion
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Nov 5, 2014 13:38:10 GMT -5
So is the PPACA going to be repealed? Can it be? Or does Pres. Obama still have unassailable veto power there?
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Nov 5, 2014 13:43:11 GMT -5
did you read my posts, Virgil. seriously. i thought i did a nice NON-PARTISAN job of summarizing. didn't you? I didn't, DJ. But I believe you. US election politics bore me. Now that the outcome is known, my interest is piqued about possible ramifications. But polling and US campaign politics and the endless speculation leading up to the actual elections I don't find the slightest bit interesting. To me it's Tweedledum vs. Tweedledee.
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Post by The Captain on Nov 5, 2014 13:50:31 GMT -5
So is the PPACA going to be repealed? Can it be? Or does Pres. Obama still have unassailable veto power there? After all the expense and effort exerted in both the private and public sectors over the PPACA, any party would be signing their death sentence if they repealed it. However, I can sincerely hope that level heads will get together to examine what is, and is not working, and come up with fixes that are sustainable in the long term.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 5, 2014 14:04:19 GMT -5
did you read my posts, Virgil. seriously. i thought i did a nice NON-PARTISAN job of summarizing. didn't you? I didn't, DJ. But I believe you. US election politics bore me. Now that the outcome is known, my interest is piqued about possible ramifications. But polling and US campaign politics and the endless speculation leading up to the actual elections I don't find the slightest bit interesting. To me it's Tweedledum vs. Tweedledee. i talked about the ramifications, as well, didn't i? maybe not. ok.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 5, 2014 14:05:32 GMT -5
So is the PPACA going to be repealed? Can it be? Or does Pres. Obama still have unassailable veto power there? the GOP seems to think they can repeal it. but they need 67 votes to do it. i already stated earlier in this thread that this will NEVER happen. not in a hundred lifetimes, imo. i doubt that they will get ONE Democrat to vote to overturn a veto, let alone 15. edit: my prediction is ANYTHING this controversial won't even survive filibuster. so, what we are going to see is a LOT more legislation, and a lot less that ever reaches Obama. there is my thumbnail sketch of the next 26 months.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 5, 2014 14:48:49 GMT -5
This would be awesome, if it happened. The fiscally conservative, socially liberal, common sense party. they would get my vote. Sounds like libertarians to me...they usually get 3-4% of the vote. it is libertarians, but it is not Libertarians.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 5, 2014 14:58:40 GMT -5
After all the expense and effort exerted in both the private and public sectors over the PPACA, any party would be signing their death sentence if they repealed it. However, I can sincerely hope that level heads will get together to examine what is, and is not working, and come up with fixes that are sustainable in the long term. I hope we can do that, but it hasn't been met with much success so far. The American people deserve far better than what we got. the American people deserve exactly what we got. it is our government, after all. if we want more, we should advocate for what we want, and get it.
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Post by jkapp on Nov 5, 2014 19:22:20 GMT -5
Has anyone spoken about just how horribly wrong so many of the polls were prior to election? In Wisconsin, it kept showing Walker and Burke within a couple points of each other, yet Walker ended up something like 52% to 47% (last I saw, anyway). And that senate election in Virginia, they had the Democrat polling at 10% above his opponent, yet the Republican was 12,000 votes in the lead (again, last time I saw it). And other so-called "close" races had the victor winning by 8-9% points.
I think this election proves more than most just how off these polls are when it comes down to comparing it to reality. So can they finally stop showing this incorrect shit every minute of every day for the six months before the elections?
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 5, 2014 19:56:33 GMT -5
Has anyone spoken about just how horribly wrong so many of the polls were prior to election? In Wisconsin, it kept showing Walker and Burke within a couple points of each other, yet Walker ended up something like 52% to 47% (last I saw, anyway). And that senate election in Virginia, they had the Democrat polling at 10% above his opponent, yet the Republican was 12,000 votes in the lead (again, last time I saw it). And other so-called "close" races had the victor winning by 8-9% points.
I think this election proves more than most just how off these polls are when it comes down to comparing it to reality. So can they finally stop showing this incorrect shit every minute of every day for the six months before the elections? i don't share your misgiving with the polls. but let's take them one at a time to illustrate why. let's start with Warner. this one was really way off (as well as KS, which i think also has a fair explanation, which i will get to later, if you would like), according to spots like RCP (which i don't like, for reasons explained earlier in this thread). in July, the polling showed Warner up by 20%. this polling had slipped recently. the last poll taken showed him up by 7%. it had a 4% MOE. which means for Warner to win by anything LESS than 3% is outside of polling error. and, that is in fact what happened. but i think you should also consider two other factors. the first is that there was only ONE poll done in the last TWO WEEKS of that race. the second is that it was a relatively unknown pollster = Christopher Newport University. i can't really say what the quality of that poll was, but i would say that it is minimal, based on the results. their 95% accurate poll was in the 5% zone. ;] but here is the second point. that poll showed 3% undecided, and clearly most of that broke for the non-incumbent (as was the case in almost every precinct in the US this year). in other words, the people who had not made up their minds almost universally decided to "throw the bums out". this is not really a polling error, in the traditional sense. it is a failure to read the hostility out there. it is a failure to feel the frustrated pulse of the electorate. and yes, i, the optimist failed to do that, as well. so, i would say that there are basically three problems this year: 1) an abundance of low quality polling (the national agencies fared better), or sparse polling in some cases (like VA). 2) a failure to recognize how the undecided vote was likely to swing 3) some poor weighting in some of these polls. can polls be wildly off? sure. are they generally? no. like i say, i called all of these Senate races right except two: NC and KS. i think that 31/33 is ok, personally. i relied exclusively on the polls for that. there are ALWAYS some polls that are off. they are called OUTLIERS. when you have ENOUGH DATA, you can separate the outliers from the more solid polls. and an abundance of good quality polls, like we saw in MI and NH (which were both considered tossup states as recently as 2 months ago) gave really excellent results (WELL within MOE). the pollsters that did worse should do some soul-searching (and methodology refinement) to fix that.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 5, 2014 20:02:20 GMT -5
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 5, 2014 20:05:24 GMT -5
to summarize all of that BLAHBLAHBLAH: there WERE a few surprises this year, but they were mostly in states that had either poor quality or infrequent polling. Alaska is kind of notorious in that respect, but did surprisingly well this year.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 5, 2014 20:07:33 GMT -5
this is why i don't pole dance. i just dance with polls. much safer.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 5, 2014 20:42:07 GMT -5
I hope we can do that, but it hasn't been met with much success so far. The American people deserve far better than what we got. the American people deserve exactly what we got. it is our government, after all. if we want more, we should advocate for what we want, and get it. I disagree. Those that voted for the idjits that keep up the whole "same ol', same ol'" way of governing deserve it. Those that DON'T vote deserve it... but the minority that actually voted for good candidates based on ability for the job (instead of party, or race, or gender, or religion, or "best of two bad options, when there were MORE than two options")... we/they don't deserve it.
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billisonboard
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Post by billisonboard on Nov 5, 2014 20:48:19 GMT -5
the American people deserve exactly what we got. it is our government, after all. if we want more, we should advocate for what we want, and get it. I disagree. Those that voted for the idjits that keep up the whole "same ol', same ol'" way of governing deserve it. Those that DON'T vote deserve it... but the minority that actually voted for good candidates based on ability for the job (instead of party, or race, or gender, or religion, or "best of two bad options, when there were MORE than two options")... we/they don't deserve it. Obviously voting was not sufficient. Did you give money? Volunteer time to the campaign?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 5, 2014 20:50:41 GMT -5
the American people deserve exactly what we got. it is our government, after all. if we want more, we should advocate for what we want, and get it. I disagree. Those that voted for the idjits that keep up the whole "same ol', same ol'" way of governing deserve it. Those that DON'T vote deserve it... but the minority that actually voted for good candidates based on ability for the job (instead of party, or race, or gender, or religion, or "best of two bad options, when there were MORE than two options")... we/they don't deserve it. i think they deserve it because they didn't bother to convince others to vote for the good candidates. i think you are taking the word "deserve" far too seriously. i meant it in the sense that i "deserve to be able to breath fresh air". my point is that this is SUPPOSED to be a government OF, BY and FOR THE PEOPLE. if it isn't, then we should fix that- because that is what it is SUPPOSED to be.
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