Something Other Than Bad News

[djAdvocate]

why has nobody mentioned this?
jobless rate down to 7%, 800k jobs added in the last four months:

www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/economy-added-203k-jobs-in-november-unemployment-down-to-7percent/2013/12/06/a183a50c-5dfa-11e3-bc56-c6ca94801fac_story.html

have we gotten to the point where only bad news is newsworthy?
what is going on here?

this is a really good report, guys.

[Tennesseer]

Dec 11, 2013 14:08:17 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

why has nobody mentioned this?
jobless rate down to 7%, 600k jobs added in the last three months:

www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/economy-added-203k-jobs-in-november-unemployment-down-to-7percent/2013/12/06/a183a50c-5dfa-11e3-bc56-c6ca94801fac_story.html

have we gotten to the point where only bad news is newsworthy?
what is going on here?

this is a really good report, guys.

If it's not a 'Gotcha' thread it ain't worth crap. 

[djAdvocate]

Dec 11, 2013 14:09:44 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

Dec 11, 2013 14:08:17 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

why has nobody mentioned this?
jobless rate down to 7%, 600k jobs added in the last three months:

www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/economy-added-203k-jobs-in-november-unemployment-down-to-7percent/2013/12/06/a183a50c-5dfa-11e3-bc56-c6ca94801fac_story.html

have we gotten to the point where only bad news is newsworthy?
what is going on here?

this is a really good report, guys.

If it's not a 'Gotcha' thread it ain't worth crap. 

has it really gone to the point where only bad news for America is newsworty?  is that the depth of our loathing, infighting and general despair, that we can't even fathom good news?

weird. 

this company is probably going to break our old sales record by at least 10% this year.  i hired two people.  our backlog is low, but we are insanely busy.  is everyone else suffering so much that we refuse to notice what is going on out there?

[Wizard of Id]

This looks like good news but I think these could be temporary due to the holiday season. I wonder what the numbers will be in February/March. Any other time of the year it would be more noteworthy.

[Tennesseer]

Dec 11, 2013 14:13:32 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Dec 11, 2013 14:09:44 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

If it's not a 'Gotcha' thread it ain't worth crap. 

has it really gone to the point where only bad news for America is newsworty?  is that the depth of our loathing, infighting and general despair, that we can't even fathom good news?

weird. 

this company is probably going to break our old sales record by at least 10% this year.  i hired two people.  our backlog is low, but we are insanely busy.  is everyone else suffering so much that we refuse to notice what is going on out there?

You must be new to this board.

[djAdvocate]

Dec 11, 2013 14:17:03 GMT -5 Wizard of Id said:

This looks like good news but I think these could be temporary due to the holiday season. I wonder what the numbers will be in February/March. Any other time of the year it would be more noteworthy.

600k in three months is not holiday hiring, WoI.  unless you are counting Labor Day.

[djAdvocate]

Dec 11, 2013 15:14:04 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

Well the news is often only mentioned to gin up a political point, so maybe this wasn't the point some wanted to make?

judging by the lack of reply here, i am gathering that you are not the only one that can see that point.

[djAdvocate]

Dec 11, 2013 15:18:15 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

this company is probably going to break our old sales record by at least 10% this year. i hired two people. our backlog is low, but we are insanely busy. is everyone else suffering so much that we refuse to notice what is going on out there?

Congrats on that, BTW!

I am not sure yet where we will come in with regards to our gross sales record, don't think we will quite beat it.  However I am quite sure that this will be our most profitable year ever.

We too have hired help this year.

We are coasting now, and I have little backlog- I am currently working hard on that- but we had a great year.  All the indicators are that next year should also be good.  Stands to reason that hiring is up and unemployment is down.

i am shooting for 20-30% growth next year, and to break our profit record.  this year, we will be lucky to net out at 5%, unfortunately.

[mmhmm]

Dec 11, 2013 14:08:17 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

why has nobody mentioned this?
jobless rate down to 7%, 600k jobs added in the last three months:

www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/economy-added-203k-jobs-in-november-unemployment-down-to-7percent/2013/12/06/a183a50c-5dfa-11e3-bc56-c6ca94801fac_story.html

have we gotten to the point where only bad news is newsworthy?
what is going on here?

this is a really good report, guys.

I saw something about this yesterday, dj.  I was going to post it after I took mother to the doctor but forgot all about it.

[djAdvocate]

Dec 11, 2013 15:50:18 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

i am shooting for 20-30% growth next year, and to break our profit record. this year, we will be lucky to net out at 5%, unfortunately.

After the red ink we bled in 2010 and 2011, anything looks good to me!

Last year I was able to erase most of what was substantial profit by writing off what were almost equally substantial bad debts.

This year I have few places to go.  Buying much needed vehicles and equipment, but will still be quite grumpy by 4/15 next year. 

I'm not complaining though.  If you want to hear that, let me tell you about 2010- 2011.  Happy days are here again!

if you look at the jobs added graph, it has been trending up for over three years now.  three years ago, adding 100k per month was "normal".  now, adding 200k per month is "normal".  and with UE down to 7%, this is going to start meaning that it is not just PT and low wage employment that is going to happen in the coming months.  it is FT and middle class employment, which is what we really really need, to lower the food stamp numbers (to use one example).

i am really starting to feel optimistic about the short to intermediate term.

PS- i was wrong- it is not 600k in 3 months, it is OVER 800K IN THE LAST FOUR MONTHS.

[Deleted]

200k jobs is okay

250-300k would be better

but as many on this board have said.....what kind of jobs....and at what income levels

if the majority are p/t jobs for $ 12 an hour, then no i am not jumping for joy

and the people falling out of the jobs market is worrisome

some places are doing great.....others not so much

so....bottom line

i like the trend.....but i am not satisfied with the numbers

[djAdvocate]

Dec 11, 2013 15:57:55 GMT -5 @gdgyva said:

200k jobs is okay

250-300k would be better

all indications are that we are going to get that, gd.

but as many on this board have said.....what kind of jobs....and at what income levels

i addressed that point, as well, in my last post.

if the majority are p/t jobs for $ 12 an hour, then no i am not jumping for joy

and the people falling out of the jobs market is worrisome

some places are doing great.....others not so much

so....bottom line

i like the trend.....but i am not satisfied with the numbers

nor should you be.  i don't view satisfaction as anything other than a vice, however. 

[The Captain]

Dec 11, 2013 14:08:17 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

why has nobody mentioned this?
jobless rate down to 7%, 800k jobs added in the last four months:

www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/economy-added-203k-jobs-in-november-unemployment-down-to-7percent/2013/12/06/a183a50c-5dfa-11e3-bc56-c6ca94801fac_story.html

have we gotten to the point where only bad news is newsworthy?
what is going on here?

this is a really good report, guys.

I saw this, but to be truthful am not sure how much faith I have in how the data is gathered.

If unemployment is so low why do we still have so many long term unemployed?  I don't think they are counted in the numbers.

Personally, I prefer to go by workforce participation rate and that has not been looking good for the past few years (and yes, I'm discounting the impact the government shutdown had).  I could be wrong, it's happened many times before.

[workpublic]

are these "happy" numbers even covering the new folks entering the workforce? i mean forget about the tens of millions of us under and un employed folks.

and what type of jobs are they? career positions or sheet jobs.

800k jobs added in the last four months:

so at 240k new workers each month, what are we "down" to 1.2 mill new workers on top of the tens of millions of current workers without jobs?

i won't count those who aren't counted and or have given up looking.

[Value Buy]

Are the numbers doing to be adjusted downward in a month?

How many just stopped looking?

Indiana announced

last month's sales tax projection was down

last month's income tax withholding projection dropped

Now whether actual income to the state dropped I am not sure.

They only announced the projection was lower than expected.

[djAdvocate]

Dec 11, 2013 16:34:43 GMT -5 The Captain said:

Dec 11, 2013 14:08:17 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

why has nobody mentioned this?
jobless rate down to 7%, 800k jobs added in the last four months:

www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/economy-added-203k-jobs-in-november-unemployment-down-to-7percent/2013/12/06/a183a50c-5dfa-11e3-bc56-c6ca94801fac_story.html

have we gotten to the point where only bad news is newsworthy?
what is going on here?

this is a really good report, guys.

I saw this, but to be truthful am not sure how much faith I have in how the data is gathered.

If unemployment is so low why do we still have so many long term unemployed?  I don't think they are counted in the numbers.

the numbers have been calculated the same way for thirty years, i think.

Personally, I prefer to go by workforce participation rate and that has not been looking good for the past few years (and yes, I'm discounting the impact the government shutdown had).  I could be wrong, it's happened many times before.

personally, i think that makes no sense.  WFP is showing changes in demographics more than it is in employment.

that having been said, the numbers in this particular report were very good in that respect.  large gains were made in EMPLOYMENT in the most recent reporting month.

[djAdvocate]

Dec 11, 2013 16:53:38 GMT -5 workpublic said:

are these "happy" numbers even covering the new folks entering the workforce? i mean forget about the tens of millions of us under and un employed folks.

and what type of jobs are they? career positions or sheet jobs.

800k jobs added in the last four months:

so at 240k new workers each month,

that number is absurdly high.  sorry- but this is way bigger than any number i have seen.

edit: i discussed this in a post below.  the number MOST economists (other than the ones FOX interviews) use CURRENTLY are between 100 and 150k.  there are some outliers.  the outliers are 80k on the low end and 204k on the high end.  but the average of all the numbers out there is approximately HALF of the 240k that you are suggesting. 

what are we "down" to 1.2 mill new workers on top of the tens of millions of current workers without jobs?

i won't count those who aren't counted and or have given up looking.

i would.  but if you want to use the other UE measures, you are more than welcome to.

seriously?  nobody is celebrating here?  wow.

[djAdvocate]

Dec 11, 2013 17:15:06 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Are the numbers doing to be adjusted downward in a month?

the adjustments for the last three months were minor and fairly positive.

How many just stopped looking?

did you open the article?

Indiana announced

last month's sales tax projection was down

last month's income tax withholding projection dropped

Now whether actual income to the state dropped I am not sure.

They only announced the projection was lower than expected.

CA's numbers are above projections.  it all averages out.

[djAdvocate]

Dec 11, 2013 16:25:35 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

A lot of people, whether employed or not, have been putting off buying big items, like cars, refrigerators, couches.  They will start to loosen the purse strings as they feel more comfortable with the economy.  This will further the up trends.

not if this good news never goes mainstream.  if it fails to do so, then everyone will still think we are in the great recession, when clearly, by any reasonable measure, we are well out of it.

It should also start to make you feel better gd.

indeed.

[The Captain]

Dec 11, 2013 18:29:41 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Dec 11, 2013 16:34:43 GMT -5 The Captain said:

I saw this, but to be truthful am not sure how much faith I have in how the data is gathered.

If unemployment is so low why do we still have so many long term unemployed?  I don't think they are counted in the numbers.

the numbers have been calculated the same way for thirty years, i think.

Personally, I prefer to go by workforce participation rate and that has not been looking good for the past few years (and yes, I'm discounting the impact the government shutdown had).  I could be wrong, it's happened many times before.

personally, i think that makes no sense.  WFP is showing changes in demographics more than it is in employment.

that having been said, the numbers in this particular report were very good in that respect.  large gains were made in EMPLOYMENT in the most recent reporting month.

How the numbers are calculated:

www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm

It's a voluntary survey.  In addition look at how some of the survey questions are worded, that's what I have a concern about.

I could very easily see the long term unemployed as being disenfranchised and refusing to volunteer to be part of the survey (what - you want me to spend several months telling you I still can't find a job?).

I also agree with WFP being more reflective of demographics, but when we are considering the strength of our economy in terms of those that have jobs vs those that don't I think it's a better tool than just the unemployment rate, but that's just how I look at it.  Others, such as yourself, have different views.  I can be convinced that I'm wrong, it's happened before.

[djAdvocate]

Dec 11, 2013 18:46:06 GMT -5 The Captain said:

Dec 11, 2013 18:29:41 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

personally, i think that makes no sense.  WFP is showing changes in demographics more than it is in employment.

that having been said, the numbers in this particular report were very good in that respect.  large gains were made in EMPLOYMENT in the most recent reporting month.

How the numbers are calculated:

www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm

It's a voluntary survey.  In addition look at how some of the survey questions are worded, that's what I have a concern about.

I could very easily see the long term unemployed as being disenfranchised and refusing to volunteer to be part of the survey (what - you want me to spend several months telling you I still can't find a job?).

one would hope that the paid statisticians at the BLS can manage to figure this sort of thing out.

I also agree with WFP being more reflective of demographics, but when we are considering the strength of our economy in terms of those that have jobs vs those that don't I think it's a better tool than just the unemployment rate, but that's just how I look at it.  Others, such as yourself, have different views.  I can be convinced that I'm wrong, it's happened before.

as can i.  personally, until WFP stabilizes, i don't think there is much to argue about.  i think that is happening basically right now, but we won't know for months, or maybe years......

in the mean time, here is something on the number of jobs required to reduce UE based on growth in the workforce.  240k is 36k beyond the HIGHEST number reported in any literature, and 3x the LOWEST number reported.  this is from the WSJ blog:

In a new paper , Chicago Fed economists Dan Aaronson and Scott Brave try to estimate how many jobs the economy needs to add each month to keep the unemployment rate steady, after taking into account population growth and other factors.

Their answer: 80,000 jobs. That’s far below the 150,000 to 200,000 jobs required in the 1980s and 1990s, and significantly below the 100,000 to 150,000 figure often cited by economists today. Messrs. Aaronson and Brave argue those higher figures fail to take into account underlying changes to the U.S. labor force, notably slowing population growth and a long-term decline in the share of the population that’s working.

[The Captain]

djAdvocate

Do you by any chance have a link to that paper?  I'd love to get a better understanding of how they come to that conclusion.  If those numbers hold up I wonder what caused the demographic shifts?

Has the number of women entering the workforce stabilized?
Has the birth cohort numbers decreased (which I suspect is a large contributor).
We know for a fact that the % over 60 and retired is only increasing each year, so...

Inquiring minds want to know 


I also think someone else alluded to the quality of the jobs (full time vs part time, etc).  I wish there were better statistics on that.

[djAdvocate]

Dec 11, 2013 19:04:28 GMT -5 The Captain said:

djAdvocate

Do you by any chance have a link to that paper?  I'd love to get a better understanding of how they come to that conclusion. 

the Aaronson and Brave paper?

If those numbers hold up I wonder what caused the demographic shifts?

lower birth rates, and the post WW2 baby boom dying off.....

Has the number of women entering the workforce stabilized?

acutally, it is DECLINING.  men have been declining in  the workforce for a generation. 

Has the birth cohort numbers decreased (which I suspect is a large contributor).
We know for a fact that the % over 60 and retired is only increasing each year, so...

Inquiring minds want to know 


I also think someone else alluded to the quality of the jobs (full time vs part time, etc).  I wish there were better statistics on that.

there are fairly good stats.  up until this point, the quality was LOW.  however, as i already stated- now that we are adding jobs far beyond the supply of new workers entering the market, the job quality SHOULD start to rise.  if you want me to articulate why i believe this, i will.

[The Captain]

Nope that part is obvious.  Simple supply and demand.

Found it, thanks - I'll read it tonight.  Good to know one of my guesses was right.

www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/chicago_fed_letter/2013/july_312.cfm

[Value Buy]

Seven percent unemployment rate, and yet, on the news tonight, over a million long term unemployed will fall off the rolls this month, unless Congress acts.

So, if Congress does not act, does that mean another million are no longer actively looking, or maybe they start actively looking?

And which way does that move the unemployment rate in January?

[cereb]

Dec 11, 2013 14:13:32 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Dec 11, 2013 14:09:44 GMT -5 Tennesseer said:

If it's not a 'Gotcha' thread it ain't worth crap. 

has it really gone to the point where only bad news for America is newsworty?  is that the depth of our loathing, infighting and general despair, that we can't even fathom good news?

weird. 

this company is probably going to break our old sales record by at least 10% this year.  i hired two people.  our backlog is low, but we are insanely busy.  is everyone else suffering so much that we refuse to notice what is going on out there?

That's one of the reasons I don't post much here anymore.

[djAdvocate]

Dec 11, 2013 19:53:54 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Seven percent unemployment rate, and yet, on the news tonight, over a million long term unemployed will fall off the rolls this month, unless Congress acts.

So, if Congress does not act, does that mean another million are no longer actively looking, or maybe they start actively looking?

And which way does that move the unemployment rate in January?

i am not certain, but i don't believe it moves the needle at all. 

if i am wrong, then the 7% number is GROSSLY INFLATED by those that have been on UE for 99 weeks.

[djAdvocate]

Dec 11, 2013 20:16:23 GMT -5 cereb said:

Dec 11, 2013 14:13:32 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

has it really gone to the point where only bad news for America is newsworty?  is that the depth of our loathing, infighting and general despair, that we can't even fathom good news?

weird. 

this company is probably going to break our old sales record by at least 10% this year.  i hired two people.  our backlog is low, but we are insanely busy.  is everyone else suffering so much that we refuse to notice what is going on out there?

That's one of the reasons I don't post much here anymore.

ur missed.  i kick myself for not following your lead.

[Value Buy]

Dec 12, 2013 6:55:02 GMT -5 deminmaine said:

I caught a little snippet in the morning paper today.  Due to increased tax payments the federal deficit is down 22% from last year in the first two months of this fiscal year.  Granted, it is still too high, but that isn't the point here.  The point is- the improving economy is resulting in significantly more revenue being collected.

The energy boom also continues unabated.  The best news about that?  I am not in North Dakota, freezing on the prairie.

But think of the construction you are missing out on!

[Value Buy]

Dec 11, 2013 20:56:10 GMT -5 djAdvocate said:

Dec 11, 2013 19:53:54 GMT -5 Value Buy said:

Seven percent unemployment rate, and yet, on the news tonight, over a million long term unemployed will fall off the rolls this month, unless Congress acts.

So, if Congress does not act, does that mean another million are no longer actively looking, or maybe they start actively looking?

And which way does that move the unemployment rate in January?

i am not certain, but i don't believe it moves the needle at all. 

if i am wrong, then the 7% number is GROSSLY INFLATED by those that have been on UE for 99 weeks.

I think it affects the all people over the original 28 week period.

I just so not understand how they are factored in after falling off the rolls.