happyhoix
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Post by happyhoix on Dec 12, 2013 12:49:00 GMT -5
I saw an interesting article on this. Can't remember where. Apparently, statistically, once you've been unemployed for more than six months, you move into the 'unemployable' category, in that some industries will not even look at your resume if you've been out of work more than six months, because you must be 'damaged goods' and not worth their while to train for one of their positions.
The article suggested one option, rather than continuing unemployment benefits, was to pay relocation costs. There are places in the country where the unemployment rate is very low and having a six month gap in your resume wouldn't keep you from getting hired.
Interesting proposal, but in these budget slashing times, I don't see any money coming free to do that.
Plus you would have to deal with bad PR headlines like "NYC dumping poor people on West Fork Montana."
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 12, 2013 14:10:37 GMT -5
I saw an interesting article on this. Can't remember where. Apparently, statistically, once you've been unemployed for more than six months, you move into the 'unemployable' category, in that some industries will not even look at your resume if you've been out of work more than six months, because you must be 'damaged goods' and not worth their while to train for one of their positions. The article suggested one option, rather than continuing unemployment benefits, was to pay relocation costs. There are places in the country where the unemployment rate is very low and having a six month gap in your resume wouldn't keep you from getting hired. Interesting proposal, but in these budget slashing times, I don't see any money coming free to do that. Plus you would have to deal with bad PR headlines like "NYC dumping poor people on West Fork Montana." i would love to read that headline.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 12, 2013 14:11:53 GMT -5
I caught a little snippet in the morning paper today. Due to increased tax payments the federal deficit is down 22% from last year in the first two months of this fiscal year. Granted, it is still too high, but that isn't the point here. The point is- the improving economy is resulting in significantly more revenue being collected. The energy boom also continues unabated. The best news about that? I am not in North Dakota, freezing on the prairie. dem- good news! we just sold another machine this morning, and now will make our forecast (24% growth for 2013).
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 12, 2013 15:58:56 GMT -5
dem- good news! we just sold another machine this morning, and now will make our forecast (24% growth for 2013). Awsome! Of course with the holidays coming up.... But hey, that's good news. (and for all I know you turn that machine in two days) it won't deliver this year. but we will be building it this year, for sure.
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Dec 12, 2013 16:20:42 GMT -5
has it really gone to the point where only bad news for America is newsworty? is that the depth of our loathing, infighting and general despair, that we can't even fathom good news? weird. this company is probably going to break our old sales record by at least 10% this year. i hired two people. our backlog is low, but we are insanely busy. is everyone else suffering so much that we refuse to notice what is going on out there? That's one of the reasons I don't post much here anymore. I can understand that, cereb. I get frustrated with the negativity myself. However, to me the answer is not to stop posting, but to present the positive point of view and counter the negative, if possible. Some things really are negative and that should be discussed. Yet, if we see something positive and bring it forward for discussion, that's the best way to get all points of view out on the table. I believe discussion is a very valuable tool, but it has to be used constructively, not destructively. I'd love to see more of that here.
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Dec 12, 2013 16:22:40 GMT -5
I caught a little snippet in the morning paper today. Due to increased tax payments the federal deficit is down 22% from last year in the first two months of this fiscal year. Granted, it is still too high, but that isn't the point here. The point is- the improving economy is resulting in significantly more revenue being collected. The energy boom also continues unabated. The best news about that? I am not in North Dakota, freezing on the prairie. dem- good news! we just sold another machine this morning, and now will make our forecast (24% growth for 2013). Great news, dj! Congratulations! Onward and upward!
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Dec 12, 2013 16:23:53 GMT -5
Good deal. We are just coasting through to YE. But we already stashed our nut. In our case, this is when we get the "by the holidays" calls, which really irritates me more than it should, because the holidays are just some arbitrary dates for these projects. I've worked Christmas Eve nights enough in the past to vow "never again" * *Without a darn good reason. LOL! I don't know how many times I promised myself I wasn't going to work another entire holiday period unless there was a darned good reason. Oddly enough, it seemed there was always another darned good reason.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 12, 2013 16:35:12 GMT -5
dem- good news! we just sold another machine this morning, and now will make our forecast (24% growth for 2013). Great news, dj! Congratulations! Onward and upward! you know what is funny ? here is how our monthly sales goals (cumulative) were this year: Jan = -30 Feb = -47 Mar = -26 April = -11 May = -14 June = -14 July = -8 Aug = -7 Sept = -2.8 Oct (e) = -1.2 Nov (e) = +0.2 hahahaha. i was pretty worried in Feb.
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mmhmm
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Post by mmhmm on Dec 12, 2013 16:37:29 GMT -5
I can imagine, dj! Glad it all turned out well!
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 13, 2013 13:20:11 GMT -5
Not sure how to read that dj, were they all supposed to be negative except the last one? Were those goals or actual results? results -vs- objectives. in other words, we were running @ HALF our projections in Feb!Well, despite my ignorance, I'm glad the news is good! Nobody else? The rest of the world is all grim? gd you aren't selling cars? No oil gushing forth i-bob? It's hard to believe Maine and California are humming and everyone else is in the pits.... guess it is a Blue State thing. how is Texas' budget going?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 13, 2013 14:16:34 GMT -5
are these "happy" numbers even covering the new folks entering the workforce? i mean forget about the tens of millions of us under and un employed folks. and what type of jobs are they? career positions or sheet jobs. 800k jobs added in the last four months: so at 240k new workers each month, that number is absurdly high. sorry- but this is way bigger than any number i have seen.
edit: i discussed this in a post below. the number MOST economists (other than the ones FOX interviews) use CURRENTLY are between 100 and 150k. there are some outliers. the outliers are 80k on the low end and 204k on the high end. but the average of all the numbers out there is approximately HALF of the 240k that you are suggesting. what are we "down" to 1.2 mill new workers on top of the tens of millions of current workers without jobs? i won't count those who aren't counted and or have given up looking. i would. but if you want to use the other UE measures, you are more than welcome to. seriously? nobody is celebrating here? wow. Labor force participation rate Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual 2003 66.4 66.4 66.3 66.4 66.4 66.5 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.1 65.9 2004 66.1 66.0 66.0 65.9 66.0 66.1 66.1 66.0 65.8 65.9 66.0 65.9 2005 65.8 65.9 65.9 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.0 66.0 2006 66.0 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.2 66.3 66.4 2007 66.4 66.3 66.2 65.9 66.0 66.0 66.0 65.8 66.0 65.8 66.0 66.0 2008 66.2 66.0 66.1 65.9 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.0 66.0 65.9 65.8 2009 65.7 65.8 65.6 65.7 65.7 65.7 65.5 65.4 65.1 65.0 65.0 64.6 2010 64.8 64.9 64.9 65.1 64.9 64.6 64.6 64.7 64.6 64.4 64.6 64.3 2011 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.0 64.0 64.1 64.2 64.1 64.1 64.0 2012 63.7 63.9 63.8 63.6 63.8 63.8 63.7 63.5 63.6 63.8 63.6 63.6 2013 63.6 63.5 63.3 63.3 63.4 63.5 63.4 63.2 63.2 62.8 63.0 Celebrating ?
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Sum Dum Gai
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Post by Sum Dum Gai on Dec 13, 2013 14:34:08 GMT -5
Labor force participation is going to look bad no matter how the economy does. See, we have this group of folks known as the baby boomers, maybe you've heard of them? They're retiring now to enjoy their golden years.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 13, 2013 14:52:20 GMT -5
Ah OK, thanks. So that is a short piece of information. Presumably though your objectives reflect a pattern of sales growth +24%, and the overall result was good. Again, congrats! I know you're tongue in cheek above, but since Maine generally (and in this instance too) tends to lag much of the region in recovery, I've got to think it is wider than a Blue State thing. Oh, wait. We're all blue up here? Well at the least it is a multi- regional thing. LOL!
Incidentally, Maine (and NH) was always traditionally a Republican state. "Rock Ribbed Republican" was the phrase even as I was growing up. I know Paul will vehemently deny this, but even now it is a swing state. It is not Maine that has left the Republican party, the Republican party left Maine. (to paraphrase a certain actor turned President) Well, getting off the track with that. If we do get much more work we will be looking to hire again. And that will be a challenge as people have retired and left the workforce over the last 4-6 years, and they have not been replaced. One more l piece of good news- I guess- is that there will be jobs looking for people. we are good for hiring for now. i will be expanding hours throughout 2014. if we exceed our sales goals next year, we will have to hire.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 13, 2013 14:57:14 GMT -5
Labor force participation is going to look bad no matter how the economy does. See, we have this group of folks known as the baby boomers, maybe you've heard of them? They're retiring now to enjoy their golden years. i think jma is hoping they work until they die, like the good old days.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 13, 2013 15:09:02 GMT -5
Not sure how to read that dj, were they all supposed to be negative except the last one? Were those goals or actual results? Well, despite my ignorance, I'm glad the news is good! Nobody else? The rest of the world is all grim? gd you aren't selling cars? No oil gushing forth i-bob? It's hard to believe Maine and California are humming and everyone else is in the pits.... for 2013, we will have record profits for the 3rd year in a row sales wise.....up just 3% net though will be up 12% from last year but.....i am seeing major slowdowns in every category for the last few months that doesnt bode well for the next few months..... costs up, and gross down is not a good way to start 2014 out
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 13, 2013 15:33:55 GMT -5
Not sure how to read that dj, were they all supposed to be negative except the last one? Were those goals or actual results? Well, despite my ignorance, I'm glad the news is good! Nobody else? The rest of the world is all grim? gd you aren't selling cars? No oil gushing forth i-bob? It's hard to believe Maine and California are humming and everyone else is in the pits.... for 2013, we will have record profits for the 3rd year in a row sales wise.....up just 3% net though will be up 12% from last year well done!but.....i am seeing major slowdowns in every category for the last few months seeing = forecasting? why?that doesnt bode well for the next few months..... costs up, and gross down is not a good way to start 2014 out no, it isn't. why are costs up?
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Post by Deleted on Dec 13, 2013 15:40:21 GMT -5
prices are going up for cars....
doesnt usually happen at this time of year
banks will only loan x amount on said car no matter how much we paid for it
hence lower gross margins
as to the why's....not sure yet......working on it.....
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 13, 2013 15:40:59 GMT -5
thanks. you know what, dem? this goal was set by a consultant. he told me i was being too conservative. he was right. i am more liberal now.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 13, 2013 15:55:45 GMT -5
thanks. you know what, dem? this goal was set by a consultant. he told me i was being too conservative. he was right. i am more liberal now. LOL! I will make a couple of confessions. Confession #1- I never pay consultants, and generally disdain them. My feeling is that they tell me what I should already know. Perhaps I am a bit short sighted. unpaid consultant. SCORE. Confession #2- I had to check my % growth in sales for this year. I haven't been tracking it that way, since my goals are more oriented towards getting us back to where we were before the recession, which we have about done, for gross sales. When I looked at it though, I was surprised at the year over year percentage growth. yeah, i am mostly concerned with DEBT REPAYMENT. so, the number i watch is our LOC balance. it spent most of last year near 100% (which is, as you know, terrible). in June, it fell to about 70%. right now, it is sitting at 38%. it will go lower, still.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 13, 2013 16:17:12 GMT -5
yeah, i am mostly concerned with DEBT REPAYMENT. yeah, we went one year with it at near 100%, and got a bank waiver. the second year, we were required to pay it off. so i used a short term borrowing provision on my retirement funds, and paid it off for about 45 days. then it went right back up, and stayed there. this year, we rebundled the loan. we took out a term loan in half of the amount of the LOC, and used the proceeds for the LOC. since then, it has been going down. fortunately, interest rates are historically low, or all of this would have been very painful.
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Dec 13, 2013 16:33:24 GMT -5
I am embarrassed that we were there. Debt like that is anathema to me. But you may have noticed I wrote above about writing off substancial bad debt. When you count on receivables from a long time customer who suddenly goes poof.... Payroll is still due, rent is still due..... etc. Our debt level is actually pretty healthy now- despite the remaining LoC balance. But I want it healthier. yeah, i was happier when i had 90 day's revenues in savings.
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