djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 23, 2013 18:20:04 GMT -5
www.ocregister.com/articles/state-538047-billion-report.htmlSACRAMENTO – California’s financial outlook is rosier than it has been in years, with a report released Wednesday projecting that state coffers will hold a larger-than-expected surplus by the end of the fiscal year in June. The projections from the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office estimate that the state will have a $2.4 billion reserve this fiscal year, up from the $1.1 billion from earlier forecasts. Multibillion-dollar surpluses are forecast to continue in the coming years, reaching $5.6 billion in 2015 and potentially approaching $10 billion by 2020. Article Tab: In this January file photo, Gov. Jerry Brown points to a chart showing the projected state budget deficits when he took office in 2011. The budget outlook has improved significantly, with a new report Wenesday forecasting multibillion-dollar surpluses. In this January file photo, Gov. Jerry Brown points to a chart showing the projected state budget deficits when he took office in 2011. The budget outlook has improved significantly, with a new report Wenesday forecasting multibillion-dollar surpluses. RICH PEDRONCELLI, AP Why it matters A new report from the Legislative Analyst's Office projects California will report multibillion-dollar tax surpluses during the next six years. Analysts say phasing out the sales and income tax hikes approved last year would prevent a shortfall in the 2019-20 fiscal year after those increases expire. Source: Legislative Analyst's Office. Those figures are bolstered by healthy growth in the financial markets and last year’s approval of Proposition 30 to temporarily raise income and sales taxes. Property tax revenues also are expected to return to pre-recession levels. “The state’s budgetary condition is stronger than at any point in the past decade,” according to the report. But those promising revenue projections were accompanied by a note of caution. Legislative analyst Mac Taylor told reporters that the state’s forecast could shift quickly if another economic downturn occurs. He urged state lawmakers and Democratic Gov. Jerry Brown, who will present his budget proposal for the upcoming year in January, to use the additional money to build up a reserve fund, pay down debt and address unfunded retirement costs before expanding programs or cutting taxes. so, how is Texas doing?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 23, 2013 18:21:29 GMT -5
Virgil:
assuming that this turns out to be correct, we should start discussing what charities are fair game. i would assume that you are unwilling to contribute to anything that conflicts with your religious convictions. so, perhaps we can choose something neutral like disaster relief?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 23, 2013 18:23:23 GMT -5
NOTE: the OC register is a very conservative paper, with a very conservative readership. the fact that they don't express any serious doubts about the forecast (barring any unforseen major downturn in the next 7 months) is very encouraging.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 23, 2013 18:29:39 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 23, 2013 18:34:12 GMT -5
i don't think the cooling down will stop the surplus in this FY or next FY. the 23.5% growth is most certainly not sustainable, however. edit: a lot of this is "regression to the mean", which is why i was reasonably confident that this surplus would happen. our housing values dropped 50%. that was just not something that was sustainable out here.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 23, 2013 18:38:22 GMT -5
Either way, I'm hoping for the best.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 23, 2013 18:42:52 GMT -5
You called it. And I really have no idea how Texas is doing. My wife says the local rural Walmart was as obnoxious and embarassing as ever....
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Sum Dum Gai
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Post by Sum Dum Gai on Nov 23, 2013 18:51:58 GMT -5
But wait, didn't Paul say we were going to be the first domino in the cascade of states declaring bankruptcy. I'm so confused now. I have all these guns in my garage next to my canned goods and composting toilet... what am I supposed to do now?
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 23, 2013 18:56:01 GMT -5
But wait, didn't Paul say we were going to be the first domino in the cascade of states declaring bankruptcy. I'm so confused now. I have all these guns in my garage next to my canned goods and composting toilet... what am I supposed to do now? move to NV. it's not that far away.
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Sum Dum Gai
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Post by Sum Dum Gai on Nov 23, 2013 19:00:30 GMT -5
Have you ever seen Nevada?? Tahoe is cool and all, but the rest of the state, yuck.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 23, 2013 19:12:22 GMT -5
Have you ever seen Nevada?? Tahoe is cool and all, but the rest of the state, yuck. hahaha. yeah. if you get off the Eastern Slope, it is a hole. imo, of course.
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Post by mmhmm on Nov 23, 2013 19:26:31 GMT -5
Mt. Charleston is lovely, but it doesn't seem Nevada plays it up very well. Accommodations have always been lacking, IMO. Still it's such a pretty area and so different from the rest of the area, I always enjoyed my times there.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 23, 2013 19:33:35 GMT -5
it is the place to be if you are looking for a state bankruptcy, however.
of course, i don't think it will happen THERE, either. but it if WERE to happen, that would be the best bet, currently.
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Sum Dum Gai
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Post by Sum Dum Gai on Nov 23, 2013 19:41:14 GMT -5
How can Nevada be in bad shape with the amount of revenue Vegas brings in? The rest of the state is barely populated, so it's not like they have to support a ton of people outside of Vegas with that revenue.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 23, 2013 19:51:48 GMT -5
Big Whoopie! Why wouldn't California see a surplus after gouging the taxpayer at every turn?
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Nov 23, 2013 20:32:32 GMT -5
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djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 23, 2013 20:34:40 GMT -5
Big Whoopie! Why wouldn't California see a surplus after gouging the taxpayer at every turn? for all the reasons that Paul predicted, of course: that all the rich people and businesses would leave. now answer me one: are you capable of saying anything NICE about our state?
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 23, 2013 20:54:40 GMT -5
why? i would have been happy to address it "months" ago, or any time inbetween. first of all, i don't know what the highlighted phrase means. can you explain it? secondly, if the pension fund underfunds, then it will not pay out full benefits. there is no guaranteed benefit in that system**. and finally, the surplus is going to be over $4.5B next year, so they could solve the problem that way, if they wish. if you want to count it, be my guest. my bet was on the 2014/15 FY, anyway.
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Post by cereb on Nov 23, 2013 20:55:11 GMT -5
Hey kids! A little lesson on the meaning of the words "Irony" and "Hypocrisy"! This very important lesson brought to you by the letters G,T, F and O!
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 23, 2013 20:56:50 GMT -5
How can Nevada be in bad shape with the amount of revenue Vegas brings in? The rest of the state is barely populated, so it's not like they have to support a ton of people outside of Vegas with that revenue. they have the same problem CA "had". when RE values fell 50%, it drained PT revenue out of the system. the recovery is slower there, as Vegas was SERIOUSLY overbuilt, so it will take longer to burn through inventory. but it will happen. i wish there was a way to gamble on THAT.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 23, 2013 20:58:10 GMT -5
Hey kids! A little lesson on the meaning of the words "Irony" and "Hypocrisy"! This very important lesson brought to you by the letters G,T, F and O! might explain why he "waited" for his "gotcha" moment.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 24, 2013 12:33:22 GMT -5
topping for Virgil.....
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 25, 2013 0:00:11 GMT -5
Virgil- really, we should start talking about charities. FYE is only 7 months away.....
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Nov 25, 2013 0:07:10 GMT -5
Virgil: assuming that this turns out to be correct, we should start discussing what charities are fair game. i would assume that you are unwilling to contribute to anything that conflicts with your religious convictions. so, perhaps we can choose something neutral like disaster relief? California is being absolutely flooded by capital gains revenue from the tech boom and the stratospheric stock market. It won't last forever. Their tax policies have nothing to do with it. Every analysis I've looked at shows the new sales tax hurting more than it helps. Our bet is for the end of FY2014, more than half a year from now. If they still have an actual surplus by that time, I'll cough up the money.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 25, 2013 0:16:19 GMT -5
Virgil: assuming that this turns out to be correct, we should start discussing what charities are fair game. i would assume that you are unwilling to contribute to anything that conflicts with your religious convictions. so, perhaps we can choose something neutral like disaster relief? California is being absolutely flooded by capital gains revenue from the tech boom and the stratospheric stock market. It won't last forever. Their tax policies have nothing to do with it. Every analysis I've looked at shows the new sales tax hurting more than it helps. i never suggested "tax policies" had anything to do with it. but since we are on the subject, i don't think that the stock market has much to do with it, either.Our bet is for the end of FY2014, more than half a year from now. If they still have an actual surplus by that time, I'll cough up the money. you misread me. this is an olive branch. i was asking whether you would like to exclude certain charities from our bet. after all, one of us is going to win. personally, i would like that. i don't want my money going to, for example, some non-profit that wants to put up the 10 commandments in every courthouse, or put a Reagan monument in all 57 states.
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Nov 25, 2013 0:35:27 GMT -5
California is being absolutely flooded by capital gains revenue from the tech boom and the stratospheric stock market. It won't last forever. Their tax policies have nothing to do with it. Every analysis I've looked at shows the new sales tax hurting more than it helps. i never suggested "tax policies" had anything to do with it. but since we are on the subject, i don't think that the stock market has much to do with it, either.Our bet is for the end of FY2014, more than half a year from now. If they still have an actual surplus by that time, I'll cough up the money. you misread me. this is an olive branch. i was asking whether you would like to exclude certain charities from our bet. after all, one of us is going to win. personally, i would like that. i don't want my money going to, for example, some non-profit that wants to put up the 10 commandments in every courthouse, or put a Reagan monument in all 57 states. If memory serves, we agreed that the charity would have to be acceptable to both parties. In fact I think we hashed out that I would pay into the Californian battered woman's shelter that was part of one of our bets years ago, and you were going to pay into a Toronto battered woman's shelter. Don't quote me on that, though. It's all a bit fuzzy. As for the component that stocks (and capital gains tax in general) plays a part in the turnaround, I can't recall the numbers offhand. They were substantial. I'll have to dig up an article when I have time. I seem to recall journalists pointing out a lot of California book cooking (a la Clinton) for moving money around to make debts look less like debts.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 25, 2013 0:46:15 GMT -5
you misread me. this is an olive branch. i was asking whether you would like to exclude certain charities from our bet. after all, one of us is going to win. personally, i would like that. i don't want my money going to, for example, some non-profit that wants to put up the 10 commandments in every courthouse, or put a Reagan monument in all 57 states. If memory serves, we agreed that the charity would have to be acceptable to both parties. In fact I think we hashed out that I would pay into the Californian battered woman's shelter that was part of one of our bets years ago, and you were going to pay into a Toronto battered woman's shelter. Don't quote me on that, though. It's all a bit fuzzy. As for the component that stocks (and capital gains tax in general) plays a part in the turnaround, I can't recall the numbers offhand. They were substantial. I'll have to dig up an article when I have time. I seem to recall journalists pointing out a lot of California book cooking (a la Clinton) for moving money around to make debts look less like debts. ok, we discussed this more than i thought. but for the record, this is not Brown making himself look good. this was prepared by the Legislative Analysts office. it is actually a pretty fair and non-partisan organization. they are the same people that took Brown to task last year for carrying forward $5B in debt from the previous year (they put the $5B on last year's numbers). so, never mind for now, we will take it up in 7 months...... thanks for chiming in. i was not gloating. however, i am somewhat encouraged by the improvement in forecast. when i made the bet, i really thought it was about 50/50- a good even bet. no odds. but now, i would give 3:2.
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Post by workpublic on Nov 25, 2013 9:08:18 GMT -5
How can Nevada be in bad shape with the amount of revenue Vegas brings in? The rest of the state is barely populated, so it's not like they have to support a ton of people outside of Vegas with that revenue.
isn't most of nevada owned by the federal govt?
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 25, 2013 11:43:15 GMT -5
How can Nevada be in bad shape with the amount of revenue Vegas brings in? The rest of the state is barely populated, so it's not like they have to support a ton of people outside of Vegas with that revenue. isn't most of nevada owned by the federal govt? answers: 1) the RE boom killed them. seriously. property values fell 60% due to overbuilding. gambling brings in less revenue than property taxes and construction- by a long shot. 2) it is true that they don't have a ton of people outside of Vegas. 3) yes.
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Post by Lizard King on Nov 26, 2013 8:11:48 GMT -5
From the OP. I'm aware Paul has already jumped on this, but - If you have a 'surplus' that should be directed towards unpaid debt and unfunded obligations to pension funds, is it really a surplus? Or is it more like a sssh don't look at the man behind the curtain exercise? I don't think businesses get to claim they're profitable by ducking creditors. I don't see why state governments should get to, either. Some cold water from Forbes, from a few months back but still making salient points: www.forbes.com/sites/thomasdelbeccaro/2013/07/08/jerry-brown-stands-atop-californias-collapsing-house-of-cards/How is that unserviced debt expected to trend over the next few years? From the same source, a bit of context on that $4.5 billion figure. Paul is once again indulging his habit of understatement, it seems:
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