djAdvocate
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 26, 2013 12:19:02 GMT -5
From the OP. I'm aware Paul has already jumped on this, but - If you have a 'surplus' that should be directed towards unpaid debt and unfunded obligations to pension funds, is it really a surplus? i already answered that question.
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Nov 26, 2013 13:15:45 GMT -5
How is it that with all that spending, CA still has the highest poverty rate in the US?
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 26, 2013 14:23:30 GMT -5
How is it that with all that spending, CA still has the highest poverty rate in the US? actually, i don't think those things are contradictory at all, if you consider the tax base. ie: if half your tax base is below poverty level, there is no way you are ever going to get your budget to balance.
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Post by Lizard King on Nov 26, 2013 14:41:25 GMT -5
Did you now.
It may help to think of it not as a question but as a commentary on the deceptive frame of a "surplus" which is entirely obligated to dwarfing debt commitments.
I'm aware as a technicality that there's an "on-budget" surplus. I'm aware as a matter of record there's a larger "wall of debt" and a devastating problem of unfunded pension commitments.
California is like a starving man drawing pictures of three course meals in the dirt. He still has only dirt to eat.
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Post by Lizard King on Nov 26, 2013 14:42:59 GMT -5
How is it that with all that spending, CA still has the highest poverty rate in the US? actually, i don't think those things are contradictory at all, if you consider the tax base. ie: if half your tax base is below poverty level, there is no way you are ever going to get your budget to balance. Pretty sure that has nothing to do with the point Virgil was making: the correlate is between state spending and poverty, with the implication that the former is notionally directed to reducing the latter.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 26, 2013 14:51:04 GMT -5
Did you now. um...yes?It may help to think of it not as a question but as a commentary on the deceptive frame of a "surplus" which is entirely obligated to dwarfing debt commitments. I'm aware as a technicality that there's an "on-budget" surplus. I'm aware as a matter of record there's a larger "wall of debt" and a devastating problem of unfunded pension commitments. California is like a starving man drawing pictures of three course meals in the dirt. He still has only dirt to eat. your opinion. you are entitled to it.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 26, 2013 14:51:52 GMT -5
actually, i don't think those things are contradictory at all, if you consider the tax base. ie: if half your tax base is below poverty level, there is no way you are ever going to get your budget to balance. Pretty sure that has nothing to do with the point Virgil was making: the correlate is between state spending and poverty, with the implication that the former is notionally directed to reducing the latter. just here to help people make connections.
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Post by Lizard King on Nov 26, 2013 15:43:11 GMT -5
Well, yes. Also justified in it by the compatible opinions expressed by the Governor of California and the Legislative Analyst Mac Taylor (presumably moonlighting from his CSI gig in New York).
There's a fond belief that all opinions are equally valid if they can be equally expressed. This isn't true. The value of plurality in discourse is that truth is more clearly displayed in contrast with error.
It's my opinion that until California's surplus exceeds the $10 billion it didn't pay toward the State Unemployment Insurance Fund, plus the $73 billion it didn't pay toward the teachers' pension fund, plus the $64 billion it didn't pay toward medical benefits for state employees, plus the $329 billion it didn't pay toward public retirement plans, for a total of $476 billion - a total equivalent to something like 240 years' worth of budget surpluses in nominal dollars the same as the current projection - it isn't a real surplus, it's an accounting gimmick. And that generously assumes that all these unfunded public costs aren't mounting by the second, which they are.
But, woo, a number looks good in a report. That's what matters, people of California. Yay for numbers on reports!
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 26, 2013 16:00:32 GMT -5
Well, yes. Also justified in it by the compatible opinions expressed by the Governor of California and the Legislative Analyst Mac Taylor (presumably moonlighting from his CSI gig in New York). There's a fond belief that all opinions are equally valid if they can be equally expressed. This isn't true. The value of plurality in discourse is that truth is more clearly displayed in contrast with error. i was referring to your starving man comment, phoenix. if that was "analysis" then i can get the equivalent from Paul, thanks.It's my opinion that until California's surplus exceeds the $10 billion it didn't pay toward the State Unemployment Insurance Fund, nor should it, imo. my simple explanation of why is this: the time to address this problem is now. we need pension reform. funding the system to "expectations" is absurd. i actually made this point earlier when i compared it to SS, but i think i erased that post, maybe.plus the $73 billion it didn't pay toward the teachers' pension fund, plus the $64 billion it didn't pay toward medical benefits for state employees, plus the $329 billion it didn't pay toward public retirement plans, for a total of $476 billion - a total equivalent to something like 240 years' worth of budget surpluses in nominal dollars the same as the current projection - it isn't a real surplus, it's an accounting gimmick. And that generously assumes that all these unfunded public costs aren't mounting by the second, which they are. the fact that it is absurd should tell you something about that number. it needs fixing, and it is going to get it.But, woo, a number looks good in a report. That's what matters, people of California. Yay for numbers on reports! it is all that matters to my bet. the rest will get fixed, in due course of time. have a pleasant day, phoenix.
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Post by Lizard King on Nov 26, 2013 16:29:27 GMT -5
Oh, I know. I'm not even remotely concerned about whether between the two of you the battered women of Toronto or of California will be the more financially distressed.
I'm just observing that the same source that says California has a budget surplus points out it has massive unfunded obligations off-budget, and that that's like declaring a business profitable if you ignore payroll.
That it's technically permissible doesn't make the proposed four-year 26% spending hike, in direct contravention of the Legislative Analyst's warnings, good governance.
And that you dismiss the downside as an absurdity that will be fixed, while relying on the upside from the same source as gospel, isn't good either. It's irrational in its treatment of authority, but I often find your treatments of authority irrational from my perspective.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 26, 2013 17:14:02 GMT -5
Oh, I know. I'm not even remotely concerned about whether between the two of you the battered women of Toronto or of California will be the more financially distressed. I'm just observing that the same source that says California has a budget surplus points out it has massive unfunded obligations off-budget, and that that's like declaring a business profitable if you ignore payroll. it is not like that at all. pension funding is nothing like payroll, for about 10 different reasons.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 26, 2013 17:14:46 GMT -5
I often find your treatments of authority irrational from my perspective. what would be a "rational treatment of authority" from your perspective?
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Nov 26, 2013 17:43:40 GMT -5
Our bet was specifically whether the reported number would be a surplus or a deficit, phoenix. We agreed not to include any of the (even more) unfunded liabilities or one-time accounting gimmicks. I think DJ realizes that if we include the 4.8 trillion that was supposed to be paid into the California teacher's fund and wasn't, the X billion that was supposed to be paid into the CALPers fund and wasn't, etc., etc. and add those as additional debt, the picture changes. But that wasn't what the bet was about. I predicted spending continuing to increase from FY 2012 to FY 2013 to FY 2014, and that prediction has come true. What I didn't expect is the skyrocketing CA revenues, especially from personal income taxes, which rose 50% YoY from 2012 to 2013. That, in part, is because I didn't see the "recovery" hanging on as long as it has without the whole thing coming down, and because I didn't see stock values inflating this quickly, flooding CA in cap gains taxes. DJ holds an odd worldview in that he seemingly equates recognition of a non-improving situation to cynicism, pessimism, and unhappiness. In fact he's gone so far as to say that he can't function while subject to the belief that things aren't eventually going to get better. It depresses him. He also boldly assumes that it depresses everybody. The bottom line with our bet is that my expectation was that CA would run a deficit even with unfunded liabilities, etc. discounted, while DJ did not. A few months more and we'll find out whose prediction was right.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 26, 2013 18:10:01 GMT -5
Our bet was specifically whether the reported number would be a surplus or a deficit, phoenix. We agreed not to include any of the (even more) unfunded liabilities or one-time accounting gimmicks. I think DJ realizes that if we include the 4.8 trillion that was supposed to be paid into the California teacher's fund and wasn't, the X billion that was supposed to be paid into the CALPers fund and wasn't, etc., etc. and add those as additional debt, the picture changes. But that wasn't what the bet was about. I predicted spending continuing to increase from FY 2012 to FY 2013 to FY 2014, and that prediction has come true. What I didn't expect is the skyrocketing CA revenues, especially from personal income taxes, which rose 50% YoY from 2012 to 2013. That, in part, is because I didn't see the "recovery" hanging on as long as it has without the whole thing coming down, and because I didn't see stock values inflating this quickly, flooding CA in cap gains taxes. capital gains were also from RE transactions, which went very well during the period in question.
DJ holds an odd worldview in that he seemingly equates recognition of a non-improving situation to cynicism, pessimism, and unhappiness. rubbish. what i attribute to these latter qualities is the obsession on negative things, and the refusal to acknowledge both the arc of history and the triumph of human will over "non-improving situations".In fact he's gone so far as to say that he can't function while subject to the belief that things aren't eventually going to get better. did i say that? i might have. it doesn't sound unlike something i might have said.It depresses him. He also boldly assumes that it depresses everybody. obsessive interest in unimproving situations is one of the defining characteristics of depression, i believe. but i am not in the psychiatric field, so i am going strictly off what i have read.The bottom line with our bet is that my expectation was that CA would run a deficit even with unfunded liabilities, etc. discounted, while DJ did not. A few months more and we'll find out whose prediction was right. it is still by no means a sure thing......(for either of us, obviously)
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Nov 26, 2013 18:57:34 GMT -5
If an obsession truly meets the standard of "obsessive", then it's a symptom of obsessive compulsiveness. It becomes characteristic of depression when it induces or is accompanied by depressive feelings. Firstly, neither you nor phoenix nor I come anywhere close to being obsessed with predicting the US' economic future. Secondly, although I can't speak for phoenix, dire economic predictions don't depress me. I worked my way to "acceptance" on the Kubler-Ross model ages ago.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 26, 2013 23:26:23 GMT -5
If an obsession truly meets the standard of "obsessive", then it's a symptom of obsessive compulsiveness. It becomes characteristic of depression when it induces or is accompanied by depressive feelings. i am imagining that if you are gleeful over unimproving conditions, that would probably qualify you for some other mental illness.Firstly, neither you nor phoenix nor I come anywhere close to being obsessed with predicting the US' economic future. Secondly, although I can't speak for phoenix, dire economic predictions don't depress me. I worked my way to "acceptance" on the Kubler-Ross model ages ago. ah. i see why you are thinking this way now. my comment had nothing to do with economics- but since it was in the context of an economics discussion, i can see why you think it might be that. no, every interaction i have with you informs me that you have a grim outlook not just on economics but politics, social interactions, the moral fabric of society, the environment, population, resource management, you name it- all bleak, and dismal. it is THAT which i find impossible to embrace all the while maintaining a sunny outlook. how do you do it, Virgil?
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Nov 26, 2013 23:53:12 GMT -5
If an obsession truly meets the standard of "obsessive", then it's a symptom of obsessive compulsiveness. It becomes characteristic of depression when it induces or is accompanied by depressive feelings. i am imagining that if you are gleeful over unimproving conditions, that would probably qualify you for some other mental illness.Firstly, neither you nor phoenix nor I come anywhere close to being obsessed with predicting the US' economic future. Secondly, although I can't speak for phoenix, dire economic predictions don't depress me. I worked my way to "acceptance" on the Kubler-Ross model ages ago. ah. i see why you are thinking this way now. my comment had nothing to do with economics- but since it was in the context of an economics discussion, i can see why you think it might be that. no, every interaction i have with you informs me that you have a grim outlook not just on economics but politics, social interactions, the moral fabric of society, the environment, population, resource management, you name it- all bleak, and dismal. it is THAT which i find impossible to embrace all the while maintaining a sunny outlook. how do you do it, Virgil? My view of economics and the moral fabric of society are dismal, but have been so for quite a while now. My outlook on the environment, population, resource management, and politics in general are no bleaker than yours.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 27, 2013 0:03:37 GMT -5
ah. i see why you are thinking this way now. my comment had nothing to do with economics- but since it was in the context of an economics discussion, i can see why you think it might be that. no, every interaction i have with you informs me that you have a grim outlook not just on economics but politics, social interactions, the moral fabric of society, the environment, population, resource management, you name it- all bleak, and dismal. it is THAT which i find impossible to embrace all the while maintaining a sunny outlook. how do you do it, Virgil? My view of economics and the moral fabric of society are dismal, but have been so for quite a while now. My outlook on the environment, population, resource management, and politics in general are no bleaker than yours. want to test that theory? let's start with this one: where do you think global (human) population is going?
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Nov 27, 2013 0:15:35 GMT -5
My view of economics and the moral fabric of society are dismal, but have been so for quite a while now. My outlook on the environment, population, resource management, and politics in general are no bleaker than yours. want to test that theory? let's start with this one: where do you think global (human) population is going? No idea. It's exploding in the so-called developing nations and tanking in the developed nations. Maybe it will all cancel out.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 27, 2013 0:19:02 GMT -5
want to test that theory? let's start with this one: where do you think global (human) population is going? No idea. It's exploding in the so-called developing nations and tanking in the developed nations. Maybe it will all cancel out. i feel better already.
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Post by Lizard King on Nov 27, 2013 9:07:23 GMT -5
And the two of you can have your own private conversation about your bet, and that's between y'all. You can even do it in a public thread, although you can't then exclude others from comment.
I am aware of the paramters of your bet. It were not difficult to infer from comments in the thread, and my opinion of dj is not of a moron who actually believes that the massive off-budget liabilities of the California state government don't compromise its long-term fiscal health.
It is precisely because I don't hold that opinion that I'm pursuing the matter with him, necessarily and explicitly outside the context of your bet over what the defined on-budget surplus or deficit might turn out to be.
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Post by Lizard King on Nov 27, 2013 9:08:32 GMT -5
I often find your treatments of authority irrational from my perspective. what would be a "rational treatment of authority" from your perspective? I answered this question already.
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Post by Virgil Showlion on Nov 27, 2013 10:38:39 GMT -5
And the two of you can have your own private conversation about your bet, and that's between y'all. You can even do it in a public thread, although you can't then exclude others from comment. I am aware of the paramters of your bet. It were not difficult to infer from comments in the thread, and my opinion of dj is not of a moron who actually believes that the massive off-budget liabilities of the California state government don't compromise its long-term fiscal health. It is precisely because I don't hold that opinion that I'm pursuing the matter with him, necessarily and explicitly outside the context of your bet over what the defined on-budget surplus or deficit might turn out to be. Ah.
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Post by workpublic on Nov 27, 2013 10:58:50 GMT -5
where do you think global (human) population is going? i klow not asked of me. but here's my take anyway. up in numbers, down in quality.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 27, 2013 11:18:47 GMT -5
And the two of you can have your own private conversation about your bet, and that's between y'all. You can even do it in a public thread, although you can't then exclude others from comment. I am aware of the paramters of your bet. It were not difficult to infer from comments in the thread, and my opinion of dj is not of a moron who actually believes that the massive off-budget liabilities of the California state government don't compromise its long-term fiscal health. It is precisely because I don't hold that opinion that I'm pursuing the matter with him, necessarily and explicitly outside the context of your bet over what the defined on-budget surplus or deficit might turn out to be. phoenix- i honestly don't think it will blow up on us, any more than i think SS will blow up at the national level. things will be done. we will have means testing for public pensions, higher funding rates from the employees themselves, or the whole thing will go bankrupt and leave public employees unfunded- but i think you and i can both agree that the unsustainable path will HAVE TO GET FIXED. the alternative is unthinkable- and i have learned through long observation and study- that Americans work best when their backs are against the wall. we LOVE mitigating crises. it is the only way we seem to be able to govern these days.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 27, 2013 11:19:24 GMT -5
where do you think global (human) population is going? i klow not asked of me. but here's my take anyway. up in numbers, down in quality. why? lesbian parents?
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Post by workpublic on Nov 27, 2013 11:51:35 GMT -5
wow that's so first world. of course not. more along the lines of uncivilized massive birth rates.
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Post by djAdvocate on Nov 27, 2013 11:54:10 GMT -5
wow that's so first world. of course not. more along the lines of uncivilized massive birth rates. yes, we wouldn't want to sully our blue bloodlines, and all.
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Post by workpublic on Nov 27, 2013 13:00:41 GMT -5
i'd settle for less spitting in the hallway or less diapers in trees.
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Post by Lizard King on Nov 27, 2013 13:43:21 GMT -5
How Pollyannaesque of you.
At the end of FY 2011 the government owed the Social Security Trust Fund around $2.68 trillion - money it had robbed from the fund to cover its operations elsewhere off-budget.
I don't agree that it will have to get fixed, because I find persuasive the examples both of history and the present day.
If we agree that the situation is that the current debt trajectory is unsustainable and that the current debt level is fearsomely high - and we might not, I grant, but I think we do - then it is apparent that this current state has evolved from pre-existing states from which this one were predictable. California's Legislative Analyst observes likely future states arising from a maintenance or worsening of the current debt trajectory. The response of California's Governor to a specious projected budget surplus in the current fiscal year is to propose spending increases of 26.2% over the next four years.
This illustrates that it is currently possible for elected politicians to disregard off-budget problems that are non-immediate and exacerbate them with on-budget solutions to problems that are immediate. If this is currently the case, no worsening of the off-budget problems will change the political calculus in future, just as it hasn't in the past. The era of the perpetual campaign rationally favors a focus on the short-term, and exactly the same airy response you're making to the long-term: SOMEBODY will have to fix it, but we've got YEARS before we reach the point of having to address it as an immediate concern.
It's a house of cards.
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