AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP
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Post by AgeOfEnlightenmentSCP on Mar 13, 2013 12:57:18 GMT -5
So, I got into this conversation with someone a week or so ago (the cruise ship topic got me thinking about it) and the upshot from the other person was this (and I'm paraphrasing, but yoiu'll get the gist of it):
When I brought up the fact that you have no control over the weather, the road conditions, the other drivers- they said,
So, is flying safer than driving depending on the driver? Or, are we really at the mercy of statistics?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 13, 2013 13:16:58 GMT -5
Yes some drivers are safer than others but it doesn't matter how careful he is, there are some accidents he may not be able to avoid. Just because he didn't have any accidents doesn't mean that he will not have a fatal one tomorrow. He is being too cocky. I believe flying is safer than driving. Not sure why they say that, is it because of the statistics? But I think it is because there are a lot less planes than there are cars on the road. The chances of running into another plane or a stationary object is a lot less likely.
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Green Eyed Lady
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Post by Green Eyed Lady on Mar 13, 2013 13:20:11 GMT -5
I dunno. If your car crashes, you have a good chance of living through it. If your plane crashes, you are screwed. I guess I'd say driving is safer if you are looking at worst-case-scenerio.
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swamp
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Post by swamp on Mar 13, 2013 13:21:52 GMT -5
This guy is an idiot.
He may be a great driver. The other dude who runs the stop sign, blows the red light, crosses over the center line while texting, or falls asleep at the wheel is the one you have to look out for.
I was driving home from work one day and it was snowing. Not a blizzard by any means, but you had to slow down. I was driving on a curve, and the dude in the other lane was going too fast, bit it on the downhill part of the curve and crossed over into my lane right in front of me. I can't slam on the brakes because it's slippery and I'll start to fishtail. I had standard so I downshifted. He just missed hitting me head on, crossed over my lane, and kept going into the field next to me where he was up to his hood in snow. I'm not sure what I could have done differently. I was just lucky he didn't hit me.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 13, 2013 13:23:30 GMT -5
I have found it depends on the dealer and the quality of his merchandise......uhmmm wait was that the "kind" of flying you were talking about?
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formerroomate99
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Post by formerroomate99 on Mar 13, 2013 14:11:28 GMT -5
There's also a question of how you're going to calculate it, per trip or per mile? Most people only fly when it's a fairly long trip. I would imagine that driving 1300 miles to my parent's house is more dangerous than driving to the grocery store.
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Phoenix84
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Post by Phoenix84 on Mar 13, 2013 14:17:20 GMT -5
Maybe I'm wrong, but besides 9/11, I can't think of any major airplane crashing with everyone on board killed in my lifetime, in the U.S anyway. It just doesn't happen. I'm not talking about small bi planes, I'm talking about Boing 700 series.
And yeah, Paul's friend is getting cocky. I remember one of the pearls of wisdom my Dad told me when teaching me to drive.
"You can be right and still be dead." A drunk driver, a fatigued driver, weather, things can go terribly wrong in a instant on the road even if you're doing everything right. Basically he's implying every fatal car crash is the result of the driver of that particular vehicle, and that if everyone was as good of driver as him there would be no car crashes. We all know that's not the case.
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alabamagal
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Post by alabamagal on Mar 13, 2013 14:19:52 GMT -5
The guy does not understand statistics.
Saying that he has not been in an accident in 30 years sounds good, but then he is comparing it to all of the planes that are flying and the small number who crash (and of course make the news). If you use his logic, then in order to ensure your safety, all you have to do is ask the pilot if he has ever crashed a plane - I am pretty certain most would say no. Or ask if the airplane has ever been in a crash, once again pretty certain it would be no. Then you could say "Well the pilot and the plane have never been in a crash, so I must be safe!"
You are certainly much more likely to have an accident in your car. You are probably much more likely to have a fatal accident in your car. Our society accepts that fatal car accidnet happen. When you hear on the news about a fatal car accident (if it even makes it to the news), very few people say "I am never driving again." Because we accept the risk of driving.
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Phoenix84
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Post by Phoenix84 on Mar 13, 2013 14:23:14 GMT -5
There was a case in Las Vegas where a guy shot another driver and the driver (now dead in his car) accelerated forward and struck a taxi and blew up both vehicles. Basically Paul's friend is saying if he were in his car and driving that could never have happened because he's never been in an accident in 30 years. Logical fallacy.
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midjd
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Post by midjd on Mar 13, 2013 14:24:27 GMT -5
That argument seems erroneous - past performance not guaranteeing future returns and all. No different from me saying that driving isn't safer than riding in a plane with me, since I've never been in a plane crash...
Unless he can guarantee he will never be in an accident in the future (and no one can do that), his past driving record isn't really relevant to the safety issue. You can do a lot to minimize risk, but the chances of dying in a plane crash are so miniscule that driving will always be "more dangerous."
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 13, 2013 14:48:08 GMT -5
Maybe he has an armored car? or the batmobile? or KITT?
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Blonde Granny
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Post by Blonde Granny on Mar 13, 2013 14:58:25 GMT -5
When my Mother was still driving, she could say the same thing. The unknown was how many accidents she actually caused because of the way she was driving. btw: she quit driving last year when we sold her car while she recovered from a broken hip. She is now in assisted living and is 93.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 13, 2013 15:10:07 GMT -5
you can reduce your chance of an accident with skill, safety, and maintenance you can never completely make driving safer, because too many variables are completely NOT controlled by you someone slamming into you because they are drunk and ran the red light someone talking on their damn phone and not paying attention to the road aggressive drivers who just have to be there 2 minutes sooner i have been in three accidents in 36 years two i never saw coming....other drivers fault and t-boned both times other one was stupidity on my part....too fast for the conditions.....and the thought that at 19 we are invincible...and i could make "that turn at that speed" i much prefer flying....0 accidents to 3.....at least so far
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zibazinski
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Post by zibazinski on Mar 13, 2013 16:30:11 GMT -5
Please don't talk about plane crashes. I'm flying tomorrow. I'm white knuckle flyer as it is. I'm for sure asking for a pill next time I fly. I had no idea you could do that even.
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Regis
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Post by Regis on Mar 13, 2013 16:32:37 GMT -5
I've been hit three times by other vehicles while in my car but at a dead stop.
I've never been hit by another airplane while in my own.
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on Mar 13, 2013 16:45:31 GMT -5
Here's a wiki link: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_accidents_and_incidents_involving_commercial_aircraft for Phoenix. How old are you? There was crash at Chicago OHare in 1979.... my brother was a newly minted fireman/emt working for one of the fire departments that 'supliment' OHare -- and was working the day the plane went down. I think there was a Boston area disaster too - in the 80's. But anyway... I see via the Google that there were about 900 aviation related deaths WORLDWIDE in 2011. I assume a similiar number occurred in 2012. Oddly enough about 900 people died in car accidents in Illinois in 2012. I think about 30,000 people die in car accidents every year in the US. I'm thinking it's far more dangerous to get in a car than to get on a plane. The difference is in perception - we all get in cars everyday and nothing bad happens (generally). We only get on planes occassionally. And when a plane crash occurs it's big news that makes us take notice. When someone dies in a car crash - even though there are daily announcements of new car deaths we don't really take much notice. On another note: nearly 2,000 kids and adults DROWN in the US every year.... more deaths in pools, bathtubs, lakes, rivers, streams than die from plane crashes each year....
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Phoenix84
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Post by Phoenix84 on Mar 13, 2013 16:48:25 GMT -5
It's like the market disclaimer everyone says "past returns don't garantee future results."
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Phoenix84
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Post by Phoenix84 on Mar 13, 2013 16:54:47 GMT -5
Here's a wiki link: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_accidents_and_incidents_involving_commercial_aircraft for Phoenix. How old are you? There was crash at Chicago OHare in 1979.... my brother was a newly minted fireman/emt working for one of the fire departments that 'supliment' OHare -- and was working the day the plane went down. I think there was a Boston area disaster too - in the 80's. But anyway... I see via the Google that there were about 900 aviation related deaths WORLDWIDE in 2011. I assume a similiar number occurred in 2012. Oddly enough about 900 people died in car accidents in Illinois in 2012. I think about 30,000 people die in car accidents every year in the US. I'm thinking it's far more dangerous to get in a car than to get on a plane. The difference is in perception - we all get in cars everyday and nothing bad happens (generally). We only get on planes occassionally. And when a plane crash occurs it's big news that makes us take notice. When someone dies in a car crash - even though there are daily announcements of new car deaths we don't really take much notice. On another note: nearly 2,000 kids and adults DROWN in the US every year.... more deaths in pools, bathtubs, lakes, rivers, streams than die from plane crashes each year.... 1979 was before my time, so it looks like my assessment was right Anyway, yeah, humans are strange when it comes to assessing risk. We talked about this at length when I was studying nuclear power. Just like flying, the odds of someone dying or having a negative outcome due to radiation exposure from nuclear power or the waste they produce is so rediculously small, yet people freak out if a company wants to build a nuclear power plant in their community, build a waste repository in the middle of the deasert in Nevada, or even transport waste through their town. But, as some have said, people are willing to accept much higher risk and feel safer when they feel like they're in control. I guess they think it can't happen to them.
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on Mar 13, 2013 17:02:43 GMT -5
1979 was before my time, so it looks like my assessment was right
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Tiny
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Post by Tiny on Mar 13, 2013 17:03:26 GMT -5
You young people! sheesh!!
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tskeeter
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Post by tskeeter on Mar 13, 2013 17:25:25 GMT -5
This guy is an idiot. He may be a great driver. The other dude who runs the stop sign, blows the red light, crosses over the center line while texting, or falls asleep at the wheel is the one you have to look out for. I was driving home from work one day and it was snowing. Not a blizzard by any means, but you had to slow down. I was driving on a curve, and the dude in the other lane was going too fast, bit it on the downhill part of the curve and crossed over into my lane right in front of me. I can't slam on the brakes because it's slippery and I'll start to fishtail. I had standard so I downshifted. He just missed hitting me head on, crossed over my lane, and kept going into the field next to me where he was up to his hood in snow. I'm not sure what I could have done differently. I was just lucky he didn't hit me. I think Swamp's example is an argument for the fact that even though you don't have complete control over what happens when you drive, you do have some degree of control. And the degree of control is a function of your driving skill and the level to which you are engaged in the activity of driving. In Swamp's case, she was very aware of the generally hazardous conditions. This awareness probably made her more watchful of other drivers as well as her own driving. Her driving experience allowed Swamp to recognize that the on-coming driver was going too fast for that particular curve under those road conditions and was likely to have an accident. In response to that assessment, Swamp used her knowledge of winter weather driving technique and skid avoidance to slow her car by downshifting rather than by using the brakes. This gave the other driver an open road as he lost control of his car and slid across Swamp's path. Yes, luck played a factor in the outcome of Swamp's experience. But, I think Swamp's behavior and driving skill probably had more to do with her avoiding the accident than plain luck. So is driving safer than flying simply because you have decades of accident free driving under your belt? Nope. It's part skill. It's part the odds. And it's part other factors, such as skill level improvement or decline as you age, whether or not you are in unfamiliar or particularly congested driving conditions (I'd challenge Paul's acquaintance to have the same accident history if he'd spent two or three hours a day for 30 years on LA's 91 freeway. The 91 is a lot different than if someone spent 30 years commuting 15 mintues in and out of Minot. (My first week on the 91 was pretty scary, even though I had just moved to LA from Chicago and was comfortable in heavy urban traffic.)) All in all, I think Paul's friend is was over confident in his ability to compensate for unplanned circumstances.
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cameragrrl
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Post by cameragrrl on Mar 13, 2013 19:25:45 GMT -5
Maybe I'm wrong, but besides 9/11, I can't think of any major airplane crashing with everyone on board killed in my lifetime, in the U.S anyway. It just doesn't happen. I'm not talking about small bi planes, I'm talking about Boing 700. Uh, TWA flight 800 comes to mind. With that said though, flying (commercially) is def safer than driving, even with Paul's perfect driver.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2013 14:13:25 GMT -5
Maybe I'm wrong, but besides 9/11, I can't think of any major airplane crashing with everyone on board killed in my lifetime, in the U.S anyway. It just doesn't happen. I'm not talking about small bi planes, I'm talking about Boing 700. Uh, TWA flight 800 comes to mind. With that said though, flying (commercially) is def safer than driving, even with Paul's perfect driver. Or the ValuJet flight that crashed in the Everglades in '96.
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swamp
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Post by swamp on Mar 14, 2013 14:16:13 GMT -5
This guy is an idiot. He may be a great driver. The other dude who runs the stop sign, blows the red light, crosses over the center line while texting, or falls asleep at the wheel is the one you have to look out for. I was driving home from work one day and it was snowing. Not a blizzard by any means, but you had to slow down. I was driving on a curve, and the dude in the other lane was going too fast, bit it on the downhill part of the curve and crossed over into my lane right in front of me. I can't slam on the brakes because it's slippery and I'll start to fishtail. I had standard so I downshifted. He just missed hitting me head on, crossed over my lane, and kept going into the field next to me where he was up to his hood in snow. I'm not sure what I could have done differently. I was just lucky he didn't hit me. I think Swamp's example is an argument for the fact that even though you don't have complete control over what happens when you drive, you do have some degree of control. And the degree of control is a function of your driving skill and the level to which you are engaged in the activity of driving. In Swamp's case, she was very aware of the generally hazardous conditions. This awareness probably made her more watchful of other drivers as well as her own driving. Her driving experience allowed Swamp to recognize that the on-coming driver was going too fast for that particular curve under those road conditions and was likely to have an accident. In response to that assessment, Swamp used her knowledge of winter weather driving technique and skid avoidance to slow her car by downshifting rather than by using the brakes. This gave the other driver an open road as he lost control of his car and slid across Swamp's path. Yes, luck played a factor in the outcome of Swamp's experience. But, I think Swamp's behavior and driving skill probably had more to do with her avoiding the accident than plain luck. So is driving safer than flying simply because you have decades of accident free driving under your belt? Nope. It's part skill. It's part the odds. And it's part other factors, such as skill level improvement or decline as you age, whether or not you are in unfamiliar or particularly congested driving conditions (I'd challenge Paul's acquaintance to have the same accident history if he'd spent two or three hours a day for 30 years on LA's 91 freeway. The 91 is a lot different than if someone spent 30 years commuting 15 mintues in and out of Minot. (My first week on the 91 was pretty scary, even though I had just moved to LA from Chicago and was comfortable in heavy urban traffic.)) All in all, I think Paul's friend is was over confident in his ability to compensate for unplanned circumstances. I was using it as an example that even though I took all the precautions I was supposed to and took appropriate evasive accident, 1/10 of a second difference and there would have been an accident. I still have no idea how I didn't hit the guy because we were that close.
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midjd
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Post by midjd on Mar 14, 2013 14:21:28 GMT -5
Uh, TWA flight 800 comes to mind. With that said though, flying (commercially) is def safer than driving, even with Paul's perfect driver. Or the ValuJet flight that crashed in the Everglades in '96. Phoenix and I were 11-12 in '96, don't hold our faulty preteen memories against us (I do remember Flight 800, but not the ValuJet...)
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swamp
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Post by swamp on Mar 14, 2013 14:22:15 GMT -5
I was 26 in '96 and I don't remember ValuJet.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2013 14:23:13 GMT -5
Or the ValuJet flight that crashed in the Everglades in '96. Phoenix and I were 11-12 in '96, don't hold our faulty preteen memories against us (I do remember Flight 800, but not the ValuJet...) Hey! I was all of 14 in 1996. I'm not that old!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 14, 2013 14:25:42 GMT -5
Sadly, the main reason I remember it was that the newscasters were going on and on about the recovery efforts being hampered by alligators stealing the remains.
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midjd
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Post by midjd on Mar 14, 2013 14:26:32 GMT -5
LOL! I guess there's no excuse for us, then. I never paid much attention to the news unless it was required for school. ETA - Wow, that would definitely make it memorable...
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❤ mollymouser ❤
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Post by ❤ mollymouser ❤ on Mar 14, 2013 23:45:32 GMT -5
Life insurance premiums can certainly be higher for pilots than non-pilots, depending on the nature of the flying that's being done.
And, of course, flying a plane that others are trying to shoot down would, probably, be less safe than driving.
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